Outlook for 2008

Looking at the current roster and projecting it to 2008 …

** Sure bets for the offensive lineup:

Mark Ellis (2B) – His OPS is still under .800, but if he hits closer to .300 and draws a few more walks, Ellis will be an elite second baseman considering his defense and run production. Twenty HRs, 80 RBI and 10 SBs from a middle infielder is pretty good, especially with the great glove.

Nick Swisher (OF/1B) – Two thoughts on Swisher: he needs to be in the OF to be most valuable, and he has to have someone good hitting behind him. His 2007 numbers were a big drop from 2006, and that hurt the A’s. Give him a position and lock him into it; get some protection in the lineup for him. Even with the pathetic lineup, he drew 100 walks this year. His average came up, his power went down. He’ll still be in the lineup for three more years, of course, but give him some help.

Jack Cust (DH) – The A’s want to keep him, and they should if they can do so cheaply. His .937 OPS was best on the team, by far, and along with Swisher, he drew 100 walks this year. He had power, but he will have to grow as a hitter for 2008, since pitchers/scouting reports will be on to him. His presence also forces other position issues.

Travis Buck (OF) – He was pretty productive when he was healthy. An .850 OPS for a rookie is good, but he’ll have to produce for a full season. He had 34 XBH in only 285 ABs. If he’s a RF, Swisher can play LF or CF regularly, depending on who else the A’s sign in the offseason.

Kurt Suzuki (C) – In 197 ABs, he hit 7 HRs and had 37 RBI. He’s hitting .254, which is solid for a rookie catcher. His .758 OPS is also solid, when taken in context. His handling of pitching staff should improve with an off-season of work and relationship-building.

Daric Barton (1B) – He’s only got 50 ABs, but with a .927 OPS in 57 PAs, he’s the A’s new future, in the Jason Giambi-style. He’s young, cheap and good. He’s going to be in the line-up until 2013, at least.

** Question marks for the offensive lineup:

Eric Chavez (3B) – His health is in question, and he’s making too much money. His days as an everyday player for the A’s may be over. If the A’s can move him in the offseason, they should. His swing might work in New York, and if A-Rod leaves the Yankees (as he should), the Yankees might have an interest in Chavez (let’s hope?). Either way, he is not worth the money he’s due, and the A’s have a decent alternative on the roster (see below).

Jack Hannahan (3B) – In 123 ABs, he’s hit .293 with 14 XBH for a .848 OPS. Those are better numbers than Chavez, although he surely doesn’t have Chavez’ glove ability. But at some point, it becomes about cost efficiency, and for a cheap salary, he can produce just as much as Chavez can in the overall game.

Dan Johnson (1B) – With Barton and Cust, he’s basically a man without a position now. The A’s should keep him for depth, though, since he could get 3-4 starts a week even as a backup first baseman since Cust can play RF. Buck, Barton and Cust will all get days off here and there, and DJ can fill that spot effectively and somewhat cheaply. They really should keep him, unless they get an offer for him they can’t refuse (i.e. a MLB-ready starter for the tail end of the rotation).

Shannon Stewart (OF) – Is he worth re-signing? Not really. He produced fine this year, but he’s just not an impact player. Considering he’d be getting a raise in any offer he receives, the A’s should let him seek employment elsewhere and find better bang for their buck(s).

Bobby Crosby (SS) – Absolutely worthless at the plate with that .619 OPS. As I said before, giving this fool 372 plate appearances in 2007 sunk the A’s (although certainly not single-handedly). The As have a better, everyday shortstop already on their roster. Maybe it’s injuries, maybe it’s not, but Crosby has become a liability. Trade him if you can, Beane.

Marco Scutaro (IF) – His offense is better than Crosby’s, and his defense is fine. He has a knack for clutch hits, and in general, he’s a good clubhouse veteran at this point. He should be kept and installed as the starting shortstop, period. He’s affordable and productive enough.

Mike Piazza (C/DH) – He’s gone, and he was a waste of money. Maybe if he’d been healthy all year, the A’s would have contended for the wild card, but it’s all water under the bridge now. Adieu, Mike.

Mark Kotsay (OF) – He’s a backup OF at best now. Injuries or not, his game has just disappeared since 2004. The A’s gave him 225 PAs at the worst possible time, and with his .575 OPS, he just killed any offensive rally he was in the middle of as the A’s plummeted down the standings. He’s always been an overrated defender, and there’s no offense of which to speak. What a waste of money in 2008 …

** Projected line-up (for now)

1 – RF – Travis Buck
2 – SS – Marco Scutaro
3 – LF – Nick Swisher
4 – DH – Jack Cust
5 – 1B – Daric Barton
6 – 2B – Mark Ellis
7 – CF – Free agent signing
8 – 3B – Eric Chavez/Jack Hannahan
9 – C – Kurt Suzuki

** Free agent hitters

The A’s have money to spend with Loaiza and Piazza off the books. They need some pitching help, perhaps, but they need at least ONE serious hitting addition to the lineup. Who is available at CF this off-season? Torii Hunter? Rumor has it he may want to return home to Texas. There are CF options: Hunter, Mike Cameron, Andruw Jones, Kenny Lofton, Corey Patterson, and Aaron Rowand. The A’s can sign any of these guys, and they’d be better off than with Kotsay in CF. In a perfect world, I’d love the A’s to go after Jones, Hunter, Patterson or Rowand. Jones and Patterson are represented by Scott Boras, however, so automatically that’s bad. I know the rumors about Andruw Jones’ decline, and he was terrible this year, so … Patterson is ideal in my mind for this line-ups needs, but Boras will want too much for him. So those two are out. Hunter may want Texas, which leaves Aaron Rowand. He plays like Eric Byrnes, so there’s always an injury risk. But I like his grit, effort and ability. He will be moderately expensive, but I still think he’s an underrated player. The A’s should target him as a top free agent signing. He would change the above lineup significantly, probably hitting second and bumping Scutaro to eighth in the line-up and moving the third baseman to seventh. With DJ off the bench, that would be a solid, every day lineup assumking Barton hits, Buck and Cust maintain, Swisher improves, etc. Maybe you hit Rowand sixth, and move Ellis down to seventh. Either way, the A’s need a real everyday CF, and they have many options on the market.

If the A’s want to try free agency for the two other position needs (3B and SS), they’re not going to find much. At shortstop, you have Omar Vizquel, Juan Uribe and David Eckstein – none of whom will be worth what the market will pay them. At 3B, you could have A-Rod (don’t I wish) and Mike Lowell, followed by a bunch of overpriced scrubs. I think the Sox would keep Lowell, and I think A-Rod will command more money than Beane/Wolff are willing to commit, which is a shame. He’d be the perfect remedy for what ails the Oakland franchise.

Other random hitters who could be appealing: Luis Castillo, Tadahito Iguchi and Kaz Matsui are all second basemen, and if signed, Ellis could play shortstop – putting Scutaro back on the bench as the valuable asset he already is there. Crosby could be waived entirely. But in affordability terms, none of these guys will be “bargains”. What about Jason Kendall? As lame as he is with the bat, if the A’s could bring him back CHEAP to tutor Suzuki, that might be a nice idea. A guy like Brad Wilkerson might be good for outfield depth, or if the A’s wanted to make a BIG SPLASH, they could go for Adam Dunn. I wonder what his market will be, in truth. Bobby Abreu might be available, or even Jose Guillen, Geoff Jenkins, and Sammy Sosa (don’t laugh!). The A’s can find some affordable players, if they want to, this offseason, because they cannot continue to be such an offensive joke.

** Sure bets for the rotation in 2008 …

Dan Haren – Great season, by any measurement, although his second half lagged behind the first half. The A’s need consistent seasons like this from Haren for the next two years.

Joe Blanton – He is still too hittable, so he needs to re-discover whatever kept his OBA down in 2005. But he’s averaged 15+ wins in his three seasons as a starter, so he’s consistent there.

Rich Harden – He’s a sure bet to be in the PLANS for 2008, but whether or not he pitches anything significant is the real issue, of course.

** Other possibilities for the rotation in 2008 …

Chad Gaudin – He’s proven he can pitch in the majors, but he’s no better than a No. 5 starter. The WHIP is over 1.50, and it’s a miracle his ERA is at 4.52 right now, through 187+ innings. He gives up more hits than IP, and he walks a batter every other inning. He’s just not that good.

Lenny DiNardo – Same as Gaudin, albeit in a different way. More hits than IP, and while his walks are lower, he only has five more Ks than BBs. A high WHIP (1.43) is hidden behind his decent ERA (4.18). He’s No. 5 fodder, at best, meaning if the A’s have both Gaudin and DiNardo in their rotation, they’re in trouble.

No one else on the roster is worthy of consideration for the 2008 rotation. Dan Meyer has been terrible, Dallas Braden is terrible, etc. The A’s need at least one, if not two, new starters for 2008.

** Free agent possibilities for the rotation in 2008 ….

The A’s could use a decent lefty in their line-up, and the ballpark can hide a lot of deficiencies. Guys like Tom Glavine, Kenny Rogers and David Wells could be good fits for the A’s, but … Glavine would be ideal, in truth. But does he want to come to the AL this late? Would the Mets let him go? Rogers will stay in Detroit, if anywhere, and Wells is not suited for the AL anymore. Glavine would be a good mentor to the rest of the staff and fit nicely in the No. 4 slot (if Harden is healthy) if he was signed to a mid-level contract to end his career. Randy Wolf could be an option, but he’s an injury risk. With Harden already on board, you don’t want too many of those. You want someone who will log 200 innings. On the righty front, there are more options, albeit mediocre ones. A lot of injury risks out there (Kris Benson, Matt Clement, etc.), but maybe a workhorse like Livan Hernandez would help. The market is full of Brett Tomkos and Carlos Silvas, however. Someone like Victor Zambrano could be an intriguing option, but if the A’s go this route, they need reliability. Injury risks are out, which means the pickings are slim. But if the A’s have to go into 2008 with a rotation of Haren, Blanton, Harden, Gaudin and DiNardo, they’re in trouble.

** Bullpen outlook for 2008 …

If everyone is healthy (big if), the A’s should be fine here. Embree will be back, giving the A’s a lefty boost there. Casilla has been alright, so he’s an early option. Street, Calero and Duchscherer (if they’re all healthy) can be dominating. Throw in Andrew Brown and Flores, and the A’s have a solid bullpen. No free agent needs here at all.

** Overall outlook …

In general, the A’s need two free agent hitters and two free agent starters. Let’s see what they do this offseason.