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Around SBN: Ellenberger vs. Sanchez Heats Up, Hughes Talks Retirement

150 K's

I am not trying to pile on, but I went to the game on Sept 1, 2007.  This is the game where Cust struck out four times.  I realize there were some bad calls from the home plate ump.  Is Cust going to reach 150 strike outs? It seems that he  either strikesout, homers, or walks.  Can you say Adam Dunn?

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you say Adam Dunn like it is a bad thing.

With his OPS I do not care if he has 200Ks.
Outs are bad.  He makes less of them per at bat then every other Athletic in the lineup.  I don't care if his outs are all Ks.

Rickey Henderson: 35, 24, hall of fame!

by Athletics fan and runner on Sep 2, 2007 10:05 AM PDT reply actions  

Jack Cust makes 10 mil less than Dunn
and he is significantly better than him too.  I'm certainly happy that BB found him.  What a freaking stud!
"He thinks the lady doth protest too much." -Larry David (or Shakespeare)

by ohtobe21likehuston on Sep 2, 2007 10:11 AM PDT reply actions  

umm....

how is Cust significantly better than Dunn?

WordUpThome: GWEN STEPHANIE IS CONFUSING AND MAKES ME UNCOMFORTABLE

by pbruins92 on Sep 2, 2007 10:51 AM PDT reply actions  

Okay. "I" like Cust a lot more than Dunn and the

stats are basically the same with the exception of the 10 mil+ in savings.

Dunn- .263/36/93/.381/.937

Cust- .269/23/72/.406/.947

Cust only has 316 AB's (HR/13.73 AB) while Dunn has 463 AB's (HR/12.86 AB).  He has also never had Griffey batting behind him.  I wonder what will happen in a full season especially if Swisher has a good '08?  

 

"He thinks the lady doth protest too much." -Larry David (or Shakespeare)

by ohtobe21likehuston on Sep 2, 2007 12:31 PM PDT up reply actions  

150 Ks are fine

as long as they are accompanied by numbers like 30hrs 100 rbi, 100 bbs, and $350k

Let's have our Piazza and eat the Cust too - SPWC

by closetasfan on Sep 2, 2007 11:08 AM PDT reply actions  

Adam Dunn, Adam Dunn, Adam Dunn

Jim Thome. Pat Burrell. And Adam Dunn.

On Sunday, Minaya ticked off a list of candidates to join the rotation, and for once this season, none of them was Jose Lima.

by rfloh on Sep 2, 2007 11:14 AM PDT reply actions  

What about LOB?

Cust left five runners on base yesterday.  He did not play well in the outfield.

     OBP is great, but when the A's can score any runs, what's the point?  I would be willing to guess that the A's have to be in the top 3 of players L.O.B in the Majors.

by jayberwanger on Sep 2, 2007 11:26 AM PDT reply actions  

This year

Cust is hitting 275-432-625, OPS 1.057 with RISP. He is hitting 280-426-622, 1.048 with men on. With 2 outs and RISP, 250-434-650, 1.084.  

Yup, Cust is a bum. DFA him now.

On Sunday, Minaya ticked off a list of candidates to join the rotation, and for once this season, none of them was Jose Lima.

by rfloh on Sep 2, 2007 11:43 AM PDT up reply actions  

Adam Dupp.

I mean, Adam Dubb. No, try again: Adam Dung. Closer. Adam Dumm. Aargh.

Nope, I can't.

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Sep 2, 2007 12:01 PM PDT reply actions  

If Cust keeps striking out on pitches

like the one with the bases loaded yesterday, I'll keep cheering for him. That was a horrendous call.

by PaulThomas on Sep 2, 2007 12:22 PM PDT reply actions  

I think this is a good "Celebrity Death Match"

People complaining about the unbelievable season of Jack Cust

vs.

The Milton Bradley Diaries

I would love to see one of them go away forever.

"He thinks the lady doth protest too much." -Larry David (or Shakespeare)

by ohtobe21likehuston on Sep 2, 2007 12:42 PM PDT reply actions  

AL K leaderboard:

Inge-DET 136
Sizemore-CLE 132
Granderson-DET 128
Cust-OAK 127
Peralta-CLE 124
Upton-TBD 121
Gordon-KCR 114
Pena-TBD 114
Swisher-OAK 111
Thome-CHW       111

Wow, these guys suck! K's a baaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaad.

by mikeA on Sep 2, 2007 12:48 PM PDT reply actions  

I bet TB is pissed that Pena hit a 3-run homer

off Pettite because they are now up 5-1 instead of 2-1.  He actually "K'd" again today.

"He thinks the lady doth protest too much." -Larry David (or Shakespeare)

by ohtobe21likehuston on Sep 2, 2007 12:58 PM PDT up reply actions  

Hey, I remember that game!

It was yesterday!

Bottom of the 9th - Baseball photojournalism by James Venes

by Flashfire on Sep 2, 2007 2:52 PM PDT reply actions  

Actually, the strikeouts *are* a problem.

Why?

Those who have said that a strikeout is just as bad as any other out are basically correct.  There is a slight value to making outs on balls in play because of the possibility of runner advancement.  I suspect that this is what concerns people with the prodigious strikeouts.  But that is a small effect and shouldn't concern us.

What should concern us is what Jack Cust does when he puts the ball in play.  When he makes contact, Cust has a .385 AVG and .904 SLG.  When he hits a fly ball, it turns into a home run 35% of the time.  This is excellent production.  In fact, it's too good.  Basically, nobody hits that well on contact, ever.  The modern king of on-contact stats is Jim Thome - a hall-of-fame caliber hitter.  The other name I see thrown around is Adam Dunn.  Let's compare the three, using Thome's best year (2002) and Dunn's best year (2004):

Player   AVG*   SLG*  HR/fly
Cust     .385   .904  .35
Dunn     .321   .865  .24
Thome    .428   .953  N/A
*=on contact

So, if we think that today's Cust is the Cust we'll see next year, we're gambling that he's a cross between the best of Adam Dunn and the best of Jim Thome, or that he'll strike out less frequently than he does now.  In reality, we should all be prepared to be disappointed by Cust next year, to the tune of something like .240/.360/.490 (or something like that).  Particularly striking is his HR/fly.  Only one regular since 2004 has had a HR/fly greater than Cust's rate this year: Ryan Howard last year.

In other words, Cust is a fine hitter and a will be bargain at DH next year.  But he won't be this year's Cust.  We're seeing something very unique and we shouldn't expect to see it again.

Stat Wonk Futurist

by salb918 on Sep 2, 2007 3:53 PM PDT reply actions  

Two points:
  1. What you're really saying here is that K-rate on the margin this year suggests lower production next year/luck this year (Suuuuuuuuuuuzuuuuuuuuuukiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiii), because the 32% K-rate limits balls in play and his balls in play numbers are due for a downturn (although I think his unique swing/approach are ideal for being at the top of those categories). What you are not saying is that something like Dunn's very high 27% career mark is bad, at least for a player of the Cust/Dunn profile. The point being it's not necessarily bad to have a top 5% K-rate if you're this type of hitter, but it's bad to have an absurdly high K-rate, as Cust does this year.
  1. Sometimes when people mention Cust's Ks, they are objecting to his approach, i.e. he needs to work harder to protect the plate and so forth. I think Cust's approach works great and just needs to be changed rather than fine-tuned in any sense. A different approach along the lines of what people suggest would see fewer Ks and a somewhat higher BA, but fewer BBs and fewer HRs. That is if he could even pull off changing his approach. I agree with you that Cust is due for a downturn next season (.940 is too high, I think your estimate is a tad pessimistic), but I think his approach should stay just the way it is.

by mikeA on Sep 2, 2007 4:25 PM PDT up reply actions  

And it's worth pointing out

that nobody writes diaries or complains about guys who never strike out, but suck because they hit a bunch of weak-ass grounders every time up. I guarantee Shannon Stewart will surpass 150 weak-ass grounders this year if he hasn't already done so.

by mikeA on Sep 2, 2007 4:31 PM PDT up reply actions  

Ah,

but they omit his low low K-rate.

by mikeA on Sep 2, 2007 4:48 PM PDT up reply actions  

1. Yes, that is what I am saying.

K's are not bad (c'mon Hannahan, it's a f---ing bunt), and I'm not complaining about the K's themselves, just that the resultant production is unsustainable.

  1. (Wohoo! Go Ellis!!!!)  I almost never think it's worthwhile for a hitter who has reached the highest level of professional baseball to change the approach that got him there.  Dance by the sword that done brung ya.  Or whatever.  (Suck it, Leyland!)
Stat Wonk Futurist

by salb918 on Sep 2, 2007 4:34 PM PDT up reply actions  

K's

For a guy who is sick of double plays, I'll take the k's.

Jim

by jarforcefatherofforce on Sep 2, 2007 4:54 PM PDT up reply actions  

You are 100% correct especially when you weigh in

his minor-league stats too.  This is just one unbelievable offensive season but it pains me that some are just too blind to see it.  I still hold out hope for a 30/100 season from him in '08.  

"He thinks the lady doth protest too much." -Larry David (or Shakespeare)

by ohtobe21likehuston on Sep 2, 2007 5:07 PM PDT up reply actions  

Cust needs to quit striking out so much

and at least try to make contact on questionable or bad pitches, in order to up his GIDP stat

Otherwise he's just not a true Athletic and needs to go
[/sarcasm]

by SwisherThresher on Sep 2, 2007 4:51 PM PDT reply actions  

What was Bobby Bonds famous line?

"I'll make a 150 outs a year...how I make them is my business."  

"You may glory in a team triumphant, but you fall in love with a team in defeat."--The Boys of Summer

by alox on Sep 2, 2007 9:10 PM PDT up reply actions  

Cust

  Some of you are projecting that Cust will have a great year in 2008.  If this is the case, then why doesn't Beane ink Cust for a five year extension?   Will see how he does this year.

    Jack Cust pulls his head so much it makes me sick.  Maybe Cust will break Adam Dunn's record next year? I always thought that strikeouts for a batter and runners LOB were a big deal, but maybe I am wrong.  I don't mean to be so nihilistic, forgive me is I seem to be too realistic.

by jayberwanger on Sep 2, 2007 10:34 PM PDT reply actions  

He isn't going to ink him to a 5-year extension

because he doesn't have to. Cust is making whatever the A's tell him he is for another season. Even discounting the risk of "collapse" (which is always there for any player, especially ones without long track records), there's no reason to take a chance that he gets Juan Encarnacioned or something if you don't have to.

I think I raised this point elsewhere, but one point in Cust's favor is his exceptional line drive percentage. When he hits balls, he hits them hard. His BABIP is "too" high, but it's not a coincidence that it's higher than normal.

by PaulThomas on Sep 2, 2007 11:38 PM PDT up reply actions  

As sal posted above

his HR / F rate this year is fairly high, 33.7%. For comparison, Barry Bonds in 2004 had a HR / F of 32.8%.

That 904 slg on-contact is noteworthy. Yes, he is the type of hitter that should have noteworthy on contact numbers. But not that noteworthy. For comparison, this are the career on-contact numbers of the other TTO king, Russ Branyan, whom I wish Beane would also pick up: .384 BA, .8056 SLG.

Even with his high LD%, his BABIP is still somewhat higher than his "expected" BABIP.

On Sunday, Minaya ticked off a list of candidates to join the rotation, and for once this season, none of them was Jose Lima.

by rfloh on Sep 3, 2007 1:57 AM PDT up reply actions  

Um

Me: "His BABIP is "too" high, but it's not a coincidence that it's higher than normal."

rfloh: "His BABIP is still somewhat higher than his "expected" BABIP."

Was this necessary? I know his numbers are unrealistically high. I said as much in almost identical terms. There's no need to try and score cheap rhetorical points off a position that I don't hold.

by PaulThomas on Sep 3, 2007 11:38 AM PDT up reply actions  

Were you not saying

that his current BABIP is "expected", because "it's not
a coincidence that it's higher than normal"? I thought you were saying that his current BABIP is his "expected " BABIP. I am probably misreading what you are saying.

I wasn't trying to score any rhetorical points, just pointing out that his BABIP is .380, while his "expected" BABIP based on his LD% is about .350.

On Sunday, Minaya ticked off a list of candidates to join the rotation, and for once this season, none of them was Jose Lima.

by rfloh on Sep 3, 2007 11:59 AM PDT up reply actions  

Nah

What I meant was: "Cust has a higher BABIP than average. Most of this is because he hits a lot of balls hard [high LD/deep FB %]. And part of it is because he's gotten lucky."

by PaulThomas on Sep 3, 2007 4:58 PM PDT up reply actions  

How do you know

if his line drive percentage is sustainable?

"We were s--, pathetic," Guillen growled early in spring training. "We hit too many home runs."

by lenscrafters on Sep 3, 2007 1:53 PM PDT up reply actions  

I don't

but it didn't seem radically out of line with the rest of the league when I looked at it (unlike his HR/FB ratio, which most definitely is). I haven't studied the historical trends though.

by PaulThomas on Sep 3, 2007 5:03 PM PDT up reply actions  

do we need to give him a five year extention or

is he already ours for 5 years, altho some years could be arbatration eligable - 4 and 5?  

also lets see how consistant he has been this season: ands its all about the OPS

ops for may-  1.022
       june-  .970
       july-   .757
       aug-  1.063

looks like he's no fluke and this being his FIRST year consistantly facing major league pitching he acually IMPROVED on his hot start with a better month of aug.  there is a ton of guys who don't strike out that will never sniff a OPS even close to 1.  there are a ton of guys that do alot of things that will never sniff a OPS close to 1.

he acually could get better over time. some rookies have been known to do that ya know. even if he he settles into the mid 800 OPS in time thats still great.  

"Those people who think they know everything are a great annoyance to those of us who do". - Asimov

by Anarch on Sep 3, 2007 12:01 AM PDT up reply actions  

If you want to say

that Cust's on contact numbers are too good, and that he is due for a "regression", I'd agree with you.

Your point, in your original post, seemed to be that Cust is a bad player NOW.

Cust is hitting 275-432-625, OPS 1.057 with runners in scoring position. He is hitting 280-426-622, 1.048 with men on. With 2 outs and RISP, 250-434-650, 1.084.

With RISP, men on, Cust is hitting like one of the best hitters in MLB.

On Sunday, Minaya ticked off a list of candidates to join the rotation, and for once this season, none of them was Jose Lima.

by rfloh on Sep 3, 2007 1:30 AM PDT up reply actions  

my only issue with cust's K's

are all the called third strikes. i think with 2 strikes he needs to go after a few more of the borderline pitches.

also, everyone is talking about his high BABIP but does anyone have any figures on his % of swings that result in balls in play???

by cvdoug on Sep 3, 2007 12:43 PM PDT reply actions  

Using Cust data from baseball-reference.com

When Cust swings, he puts it into play 30% of the time (league average is 43%).  41% of his strikeouts are called (leage average is 26%).  When Cust swings, he misses 36% of the time (league average is 19%).

Stat Wonk Futurist

by salb918 on Sep 3, 2007 1:14 PM PDT up reply actions  

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