Yawns while watching broom sweep by
Hmmmm...let’s review the script. A’s go down early. Check. A’s offense pulls them back as far as they can, while still maintaining levels of complete frustration for fans, such as receiving four walks in an inning and still only scoring one run. Check. They come up short. Check. Great!
Well, scoring a couple of runs off of Felix Hernandez is no small feat, but thanks to Dan Meyer (who did nothing for anyone’s claim that he is ‘major league ready’), the A’s went into a hole early that they never recovered from. Undoubtedly, someone on the A’s will be interviewed and blame the wind, but the wind didn’t account for the truly crappy pitching performances by pretty much everyone except Andrew Brown. If you told me that the A’s received eight walks and had eight hits, first of all I’d ask you how they only scored five runs, but I’d also ask how they didn’t win. Well, nine runs and sixteen hits for the other team will trump every time. That’s some crappy pitching.
Let’s just say that this game was so bad that the announcers discussed the routine of the Coliseum seagulls for the entire ninth inning. I wish I was kidding. And I don’t blame them; what else are they going to say? "Hey, remember last year when we were on the edge of our seats, finding out if we were going to play the Tigers or the Twins? Wasn’t that fun?"
Somehow, this year, the only thing we care about is whether Barton will hit over .300 (1 for 5 today) and how many homers will Cust finish with (hit another monster shot today). And also, when will our announcers stop saying ‘routine fly ball’ on anything hit to Jack Cust?
In other news and weird records, Matt Stairs is now second all-time on the list of most major league games played by a Canadian. Hey, I bet Rich Harden is first!
<crickets>
So in case you haven’t heard, a new addition to the playoffs this year is that the A’s don’t have any 9:30 AM playoff starts. That’s something.
Okay, the real story is this:
Another change this postseason should be credited to Commissioner Bud Selig.
Already, the American League representative has the home-field advantage in the World Series by virtue of its 5-4 win in the All-Star Game this past July 10 in San Francisco. Now, the AL team with the best record has been given the opportunity to choose whether it wants to play an eight-day ALDS by opening on Oct. 3 or a seven-day first-round series, beginning on Oct. 4.
Both NL first-round series begin on Oct. 3, so there's no option for the National League team that finishes with the best record.
"We started to think about this back in May when we made the schedule change," said Rich Levin, a spokesman for the Commissioner. "It gives all the top AL teams another incentive right down to the end of the season."
According to the Commissioner's newest rule, the AL club that finishes with the best record must make its playoff starting-day selection within one hour after completing either the game that determines which team finishes with the best regular-season record or the game that determines the matchups in the Division Series -- whichever comes later.
I am now on the edge of my seat watching the Angels/Indians/Red Sox battle for this prize.
Actually, I still hold out hope for the Angels to lose the rest of their games, and for Seattle to win the rest of theirs. Because if Seattle had to own us this year like we owned them last year, the very least they could have done was to actually go to the playoffs. You know the rule, Mariners: No Angels in the postseason.
<sigh>
The A’s now play Cleveland...on Friday. Let's go...Indians? (Just preparing for the post-season.)
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I'm almost made it through the game without...
saying something negative about Cust. Sorry, my name is BB4life and I'm an anti-Cust-aholic. My sobriety lasted 8 innings. I'll begin anew on Friday and it's 1 day at a time. Bare with me, I need AN's support.
Poppy told me I have to give him props for his HR...great job on the HR
MikeA said I can say whatever I want about his defense...I won't say it, it's my first step toward recovery
by athleticsBB4life on Sep 19, 2007 4:47 PM PDT 0 recs
...and, the utterly sucktastic pitching continues
What is up with this? Since the Break, the A's pitching has been better than exactly one team-- the Orioles. (You may recall them giving up a few runs lately... like, 30 in a game.)
I have to say, with every horrific start and imitation-kerosene relief appearance lately, my hopes for this team contending next season take another hit. Giving Loaiza away just looks more and more idiotic by the minute.
by PaulThomas on Sep 19, 2007 4:53 PM PDT 0 recs
That rule change is terrible.
Why make a bad situation worse?
by jeepers on Sep 19, 2007 4:58 PM PDT 0 recs
Makes zero sense to me either.
by baseballgirl on
Sep 19, 2007 5:02 PM PDT
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I'm not sure I get the point of it.
"It gives all the top AL teams another incentive..."
Why do they need another incentive?
by Poppy on
Sep 19, 2007 5:04 PM PDT
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Yeah, seriously.
by baseballgirl on
Sep 19, 2007 5:04 PM PDT
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The way it should work.
IMO, maintain seeding each league DW, DW, DW, WC, eliminate the same division competition rule, and award the team with the best regular season record home field in the World Series. I know it's a novel concept not embraced by any other professional sports league in the world...
by jeepers on
Sep 19, 2007 5:08 PM PDT
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Home field advantage
is almost completely meaningless in baseball. Probably only about 20% of series go to seven games. Home teams win about 13 of every 25 games. That means about 1 out of every 125 will be decided by home field advantage.
Some reward.
Baseball should-- getting on my soapbox here-- have the same format as football. 6 teams, top 2 get first-round byes.
Or here's another idea. Give each league its own "champion"-- acknowledged and paid as such-- based on the regular season. Then take the top 6 from each American league along with the best team from each Japanese league, the top Mexican team, and the top team from whatever league is #4 (Cuban, or something) and have a 16 team playoff for the true "World Series." That would be fun as hell.
by PaulThomas on
Sep 19, 2007 5:25 PM PDT
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The incentive
is to try to prevent what the Red Sox appear to be doing this season, and what the Red Sox and Yanks appeared to do in 2005: tanking the rest of the regular season once they're fairly sure of making the playoffs.
by rfloh on
Sep 20, 2007 7:03 AM PDT
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The "incentive" plan is truly stupid
I mean, if it has any value at all how can you justify only offering it to one league?
However, there is one very positive change. In both Div Series' there will be an off day for travel before any decisive Game Fives. I think we've all seen enough cross country next day Game Fives to last a lifetime.
by FreeSeatUpgrade on
Sep 19, 2007 7:57 PM PDT
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It alternates
Next year, in theory, the NL's top record will get the choice. Capricious (since it's pretty random whether you win the league this year or next), but not exactly unfair.
by PaulThomas on
Sep 19, 2007 8:39 PM PDT
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Holy cynicism, bbg
~That's hysterical!! But, I have noticed you're post-loss threads have grown increasingly bitter and sarcastic as this season has wore on. I'm sure by spring training you'll have rediscovered that joie de vivre.
by kvn on Sep 19, 2007 5:02 PM PDT 0 recs
Hee! Meh...I call 'em like I see 'em
This team is awful. It doesn't mean that I don't love them, or I'm not excited for next season. But I can't pretend anything else right now...they are a terrible, terrible team, on offense AND defense, and there's really no sugar-coating that.
by baseballgirl on
Sep 19, 2007 5:04 PM PDT
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did David Forst just say on Extra Innings
that .500 was a possibility this season? (Meaning winning 7 of the remaining 8 games)
I want what he's smoking
by OaklandSi on Sep 19, 2007 5:12 PM PDT 0 recs
The thing that bugs me about the rule changes
is that an 8-day ALDS exists at all. Every team has a 5-man rotation during the season, and it's obnoxious that they can switch to a 3-man rotation at no cost for the playoffs.
by mikeA on Sep 19, 2007 5:20 PM PDT 0 recs
If they really wanted to give an advantage
then the top 2 teams would have 5 home games in the division series with no days off. the WC and the 3rd best division winner would have to basically "prove" themselves in order to get to the LCS and being the best in the league actually means something and you wouldn't be able to just slip by with only 2 good starters.
by DMOAS on
Sep 19, 2007 6:08 PM PDT
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IMO, it should be
2 away, 3 home for the team with the better record. That means just one time traveling and a true advantage for the team with home field advantage--because unless the away team sweeps the first two, the "deciding games" are all at home.
by Nico on
Sep 19, 2007 6:13 PM PDT
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Well... I'm all for that
but the important part to that would be 5 games in 5 days. Allowing a team to skip a starter is negating the fact that in order to get where they are, they needed all 5 starters and it doesn't make sense to let any team get away with only using 3 or 4.
by DMOAS on
Sep 19, 2007 6:22 PM PDT
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No no no
That's the way they did it the first two years of the Wild Card, and it was awful. Having the first two games at home proved to be a huge advantage...in '95, the Wild Card Yankees won two straight at home, putting the West champ Mariners against the wall. Fortunately, Seattle won three straight at home to take the series. The next year, the Wild Card Orioles also won the first two at home, and ended up beating the more deserving Indians 3 games to 1. There was a pretty broad consensus that letting the Wild Card team open with two at home was unjust to the Division winner, and the system was changed afterwards.
by FreeSeatUpgrade on
Sep 19, 2007 7:53 PM PDT
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the later the postseason extends
the more chance of weather really becoming a problem
by OaklandSi on
Sep 20, 2007 3:27 AM PDT
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Is Meyer really still a rotation candidate?
I mean, really?
Beane doesn't sound thrilled about DiNardo, even as he's "complimenting" him. I share his skepticism, but I cringe when I hear that Braden or Meyer is taking the mound as well. At this point, I'd rather see Windsor. Or Komine. Or God help me, Halsey. Put Cliff Pennington on the mound, I don't care.
The front office really seems like it's leaning toward either Meyer or Braden next year for the #5 spot. And I think the only thing you can really argue for them is an invite to the big league camp in Spring Training. And that's it.
by Joey C. on Sep 19, 2007 5:42 PM PDT 0 recs
Next Year's Woes
Okay, after today's game and following the A's in September, we've learned a few things:
- The A's line-up for 2008 is potentially exciting, with Buck, Swisher and Barton playing every day together. Should Chavez recover sufficiently and Suzuki's learning curve as a hitter keep rising, I think this team will be okay. Big problem: Too many people on this team think that even with a runner on third base, it's more important to get a walk than drive a run in. Yesterday I saw a number of hitters take way too many close ones for comfort in order to get that next ball 2 or ball 3. I appreciate patience but this strategy is ineffective, as witness today's eighth inning: Bases loaded twice, only one run scores, no hits at all. JACK CUST, JACK CUST, JACK CUST: isn't the clean-up type guy supposed to drive in runs rather than scrounge for walks? Just asking.
- The starting pitching: The A's are in big trouble here, less so if Harden can stay healthy (HA!), but Gaudin has been total puke since mid-season, DiNardo is barely adequate as a #5, and Lewis/Braden/Meyer aren't even question marks any more: they can't do the job. The team is two or three decent starters from contending. That's the number one issue right now.
- The bullpen. Obviously inconsistency has been a problem. Casilla, Brown, and Lugo all look good one day, not good the next. Duchsherer, Embree and Street all can carry the day --- but there's no way to get starting help without trading at least one or more of these three.
by richwol on Sep 19, 2007 5:48 PM PDT 0 recs
Totally agree on point #1
The offense could be ok, especially if we remember to think "hit" and not "see a lot of pitches" with RISP.
Don't agree on #2, though. The starting pitching is not that far away from being excellent. Imagine Harden is healthy (I said imagine; we get to do that). Already it's fine: Haren, Harden, Blanton, Gaudin, DiNardo. I'll take it. So it's really one good pitcher away from being fine--which describes most teams' rotations--with the extra bonus that we actually have that pitcher on our team.
re point #3: If Street and Duke are healthy most of next year, I think our bullpen will be fine. They're solid and no one does any better behind their 1-2 guys than Brown, Embree, et al can provide. They're pretty darn good for 3rd/4th guys out of the pen. I also think Blevins might be a pleasant surprise in that mix. If one is traded, you'll have still have enough left to fill those spots adequately, IF Street and Duke are basically healthy.
by Nico on
Sep 19, 2007 6:06 PM PDT
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While I also agree on #1
I disagree with #2. You can imagine all you want about Harden, but we don't have that one pitcher in house right now, simply because Harden now needs to prove himself as much as Braden/Meyers. Now, if we could get Kerry Woods & Mark Prior, we might only need a starter and a half. While we appear to need only one pitcher, in reality we need two.
As for #3, The starting rotation has as much to do with our bullpen's success as their health. If they're pitching 5-6 innings in 2 out of every 5 games, having a healthy Duke & Street will mean nothing, because they'll be way too overwork to be effective.
by DMOAS on
Sep 19, 2007 6:19 PM PDT
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As you probably know, I insist on
considering Harden a "non-factor" until he's healthy for 10 starts in a row. My point was that if we're fine with one more pitcher--one we even have and might get something out of next year--we're not THAT far away from being ok. Unlike KC, or Baltimore, or Texas...
by Nico on
Sep 19, 2007 6:36 PM PDT
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What's with the Man-love for Gaudin?
Every time next year's rotation is brought up, everyone says that with Haren, Blanton and Gaudin it will be fine. Haren and Blanton, sure. I love Fat Joe, I think he could be the next Mickey Lolich. But Gaudin? This guy had 1/2 of a good season, and even then his WHIP was second-rate. Since the all-star break, his ERA is over 7.00. That's terrible. He's had a couple of games where he's been okay, but mostly he's been awful. Yes, it's possible that his extra innings wore him out from July through September. Possible. But I wouldn't count on it, and I wouldn't use his name to prove the A's will be okay in '08. I'd count Harden over Gaudin, because if Harden's healthy, he's a great pitcher. Big if, of course.
So we can count on Haren and Blanton. Gaudin, like Harden though for different reasons, is a question mark. Don't be fooled by one decent streak in a short but mediocre career; that's how we got stuck with Joe Kennedy, and it wasn't pretty.
I would also agree that we could eke by with Embree, Duke and Street (I suspect Calero will be non-tendered), and the inconsistency of Brown, Blevins, Casilla and Lugo. But DMOAS is right: if the starters can't get out of the sixth inning and the back of our bullpen sucks, we're in trouble. And with Gaudin, DiNardo and Braden/Meyer/Lewis, we'll rarely see the seventh, let alone the eighth and ninth.
by richwol on
Sep 19, 2007 6:49 PM PDT
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Well...
I'll go with richwol half way. I don't believe at all we are a sure fire contending team with Danny, Joe, and Chad as our top 3. Chad is a #4 and in that spot is as good as any other #4. What I am saying is that it is better to work around what you already have and then add pieces into the puzzle. We (as I mentioned last message) do need a #3. It's been mentioned before we need a Bronson Arroyo type into the rotation. I'll just leave that there as a thought. With the #3 on board, then I do believe with Danny, Joe, #3, and Chad we are a contending team. I think we need one piece in the SP roation.
Duke and Street make as good as a 8th/9th combo as you are going to acquire. Sure, Street has been injured in the past and that is why it would be helpful to keep Embree. There might be trade interest from other teams acquiring Embree, and it might be worth looking into, but with so many question marks I don't see an absolute benefit in trading Embree. (Unless he would bring us the #3 we need, some teams are looking for a closer...) I think all of us are saying the same thing, Danny and Joe are working brilliantly at the top, Rich has already been a hope but can't be firmly penciled in, and Street, Embree, and Duke seem to be the only sure fire components of our bullpen.
by AsWin on
Sep 19, 2007 6:59 PM PDT
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I feel obliged to point out
that while Gaudin has undoubtedly regressed since the beginning of the season, his BABIP in the second half is .377. That's absurdly high. Part of this is due to the abysmal defense the A's are running out there sometimes (Cust, Swisher, Stewart is one of the worst outfields imaginable) but I suspect most of it is just bad luck.
Gaudin's peripherals suggest he should have an ERA in the high 3s to low 4s most of the time, which is, if not ace material, certainly good enough.
by PaulThomas on
Sep 19, 2007 8:45 PM PDT
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The exception being the rather dramatic
change from "among the hardest to take deep" to "1-2 HRs/start".
by Nico on
Sep 19, 2007 9:12 PM PDT
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When you say "peripherals"
do you ignore walks given up? The 90 BBs in 187 IP? His FIP is 4.72, xFIP is 4.57.
by rfloh on
Sep 20, 2007 7:10 AM PDT
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point 2
A's ERA with roughly the staff for next season since August 1: 5.24. Just saying.
by jubjub on
Sep 19, 2007 6:50 PM PDT
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I don't think the offense...
...is OK at all and it hasn't been for at least 2 years. A's have been trying to play power ball with a lineup w/o power. The reason they have lost so many games by 1-2 runs, particularly in the first half, was because they don't play the whole game - a drum I have been pounding the entire year. With power, you just play. Without power you must play smart and that means all players must know how to handle the bat, i.e., hit behind the runner, hit to the opposite field, hit a fly ball to score a run, squeeze, drag the ball for a base hit, etc., etc. A squeeze every 7 years just isn't it.
by doubleplayer on
Sep 19, 2007 6:54 PM PDT
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It never ceases to confuse me
that people's solution to a team that can't hit is something other than "teach them to hit better and/or hire better hitters." All of these things lower players' batting averages, either because they're wasting practice time on bunting, etc. or because they're swinging in awkward ways to try and produce desired results.
It's easy for us to sit around and say "oh, look, he shouldn't have tried to pull that pitch," or whatever. These guys are reacting in split seconds. Every minor adjustment and thought process takes away from that reaction time and makes the hitter less likely to achieve what he's trying to achieve, which is (assuming he's swinging at the pitch) a base hit.
If I was a hitting coach, I'd want guys to hit the way they're most comfortable hitting. If you want guys who hit home runs, or walk a lot, or drag bunt, or whatever, that's fine-- but you need to hire them as such, not try and drill artificial philosophies into the heads of your hitters. The primary role of a hitting coach is, or at least should be, to help guys get better at doing what they're already doing by improving their mechanics.
by PaulThomas on
Sep 19, 2007 9:07 PM PDT
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Trouble is, some guys are most comfortable
hitting the way they've hit since high school because "it worked for me then..." and can't even figure out where to stand in the batter's box until days before they're hit by a pitch in August.
by Nico on
Sep 19, 2007 9:10 PM PDT
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scratches head....<wonders>
<then coffee kicks in.....glances at large wall paper of one ex rookie of the year>
by ak_A on
Sep 20, 2007 6:52 AM PDT
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There's nothing confusing about this...
by doubleplayer on
Sep 20, 2007 2:26 PM PDT
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All I can say is
that if you think that tinkering with the approach of a guy who hits .260 can't make him any worse, you have absolutely no idea how hard it is to hit a baseball at the major league level.
by PaulThomas on
Sep 21, 2007 12:14 AM PDT
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OK, we'll...
...respecfully agree to disagree, but here are some averages to ponder: Murphy, 207; Kotsay, 214; Crosby, 226;
Johnson 236; Chavez, 240; Suzuki, 255: Scutaro, 259 (with only 41 RBI's).
Also, we already know that Ellis and Suzuki are skilled at bunting. They are major league players that somehow acquired this additional tool. There are likely to be others. We don't know because I suspect management has told them to 'forget about it'. Kotsay, Johnson and Chavez bat lefthanded and have a step on every bunt they lay down. In 1-2 run games this can make a big difference.
by doubleplayer on
Sep 21, 2007 9:54 AM PDT
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My thoughts on point #3 and #2...
I do agree that the bullpen is iffy behind Duke, Embree, and Street. I think that seems to be at least a legit concern. However, as unproved or inconsistent as they might be, we do have some options. We also could add someone dropped off a team's roster to join our bullpen. We could re-sign Calero and if he got back to what we have hoped for him to be then that would be helpful. I don't see any benefit in trading a RP or being overly desperate to add another arm in the bullpen. There is something to be made out of Meyer, Braden, DiNardo (if he's not the #5), Brown, Castilla, Lugo, Blevins et al.
As for #2, I think what we lack is a number three. This is what we need to acquire in the FA market. When you add a solid #3 FA arm the rotation of Danny, Joe, FA acquisition, Chad, and the #5 winner looks a lot stronger. There is not that much work to be done. Of course, we'd all love to count on Rich, but alas. I do believe that even with the emphasis on our SS/CF woes and the need for a solid bat, our SP rotation needs to be our biggest concern this off season. Even if we do acquire that "perfect" FA big bat/OFer if we don't have a solid staff behind Danny and Joe to go along with it it's benefit is going to be reduced.
My question is what do the As plan on doing with DiNardo if they don't see him in their plans. I just don't see him bringing us that much in the trade market. Even if we did package him with DJ.
by AsWin on
Sep 19, 2007 6:39 PM PDT
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That's my point, AsWin--totally agree
We need a #3 so that Gaudin can be a good #4. That's not man-love for Gaudin; a #4 isn't that great, just decent, good arm. And certainly, needing a #3 is a bit of a problem (unless Harden's arm decides to make 2008 the magic year, in which case, problem solved), but it's different from needing a #1 or #2. I think there's a chance we can find a #3 if we need one, without having to trade the house.
by Nico on
Sep 19, 2007 7:06 PM PDT
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If you're looking to acquire a #3 in FA
you'd better look again, because there aren't any. Carlos Silva, a #3 on a very good day if that, is the best available, and he's going to be commanding $13M a year in this marketplace. If you want the A's to spend their entire "cash surplus" on a mediocre pitcher, that's fine-- but I can't agree with you. I'd rather wait a year until the cavalry, A.K.A. some or all of Simmons, Madsen, Cahill and Bailey, arrive, and stake my fortunes in the meantime on the fickle arm of He Who Must Not Be Named.
by PaulThomas on
Sep 19, 2007 8:55 PM PDT
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I didn't say a FA
Gaudin wasn't a FA, he was the find of a diligent and observant scouting dept. Guys are out there.
by Nico on
Sep 19, 2007 9:08 PM PDT
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If you wanted to go the highest of risks route...
Note: I am not saying I endorse this at all.. but just to throw another name into the discussion... Mark Prior. Yes, I know what you are thinking injury wise (and yeah I am too, especially with the questions around Rich). If we were to go the route, we could see Rich and Mark on the DL for the entire season. Or if he is finally healthy (yeah that sounds all too familiar) he could be of great use to our SP staff.
by AsWin on
Sep 19, 2007 9:23 PM PDT
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I know
A'sWin did, though.
So, what the A's (and we, if we want to look awesomely smart, cool, etc) have to do is find pitchers who can pitch like Jack Cust hits. (Not literally-- although a Three True Outcomes pitcher would be entertaining, if nothing else--more in the sense of guys who never really got a fair shake.)
One avenue that springs to mind offhand is finding relievers who can be converted into effective starters.
by PaulThomas on
Sep 19, 2007 9:35 PM PDT
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Like Justin Duchscherer?
OK, we've beaten that one to death.
Y'know, Chad Gaudin has become the Jack Cust of pitchers - nowadays he's pretty much good for a walk, a strikeout, and a HR.
by Nico on
Sep 19, 2007 9:45 PM PDT
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I thought Duke was the other way around
A starter who became a reliever. That's much more common.
It would be funny to find out which starter has the highest TTO percentage, but I have no idea how one would assemble the data.
by PaulThomas on
Sep 19, 2007 10:01 PM PDT
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He was. He was ineffective as a starter
in the major leagues (Texas) but it was pre-cutter. (He was then 14-2 at AAA as a starter for the A's.) I've always thought he could be a #2-#3 starter in the bigs. Whether his back/hip would prefer the rigors of starting or relieving is beyond my knowledge or ability to guess.
by Nico on
Sep 19, 2007 10:05 PM PDT
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very good recap
For some reason I watched this train wreck to the last out. I suppose it's because the season is winding down and I should get my last glimpses of the A's while I can, but god, what awful dreck.
My attention was wandering and I could swear Joe Kennedy pitched the first five innings. Today was a perfect flashback of the many failings of this season all rolled into 9 gruesome stomach-churning soul-deadening innings.
Can't they just say 'uncle' and pack up their cleats for the season? We're going to suffer enough with the Angels, Yankees and Red Sox in the playoffs. This bitter ending to the season is just salt in the wound.
by coffee roaster on Sep 19, 2007 7:08 PM PDT 0 recs
Here's a kind of interesting comparison:
Gaudin: 11-12, 4.52 ERA, 187 IP, 90 BB, 140 K
Zito.....: 9-12, 4.41 ERA, 180 IP, 76 BB, 125 K
Of course, one's cheaper.
by Nico on Sep 19, 2007 8:40 PM PDT 0 recs
For anyone still pissed at Padilla...
At least the Rangers players feel the same way as us even though their fans think otherwise. Rangers hate him too
by rightbackin on Sep 19, 2007 9:15 PM PDT 0 recs
Option #2
"Find a bad contract – any bad contract out there"
I'd be perfectly content with a Kotsay-Padilla swap straight up.
by monkeyball on
Sep 19, 2007 9:25 PM PDT
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speaking of .300 ...
... after today's game, Jack Hannahan: .296/.396/.461
by monkeyball on Sep 19, 2007 9:20 PM PDT 0 recs
Psssh. All the hits are in blowouts.
He's still totally unclutch, should be batting 9th.
Sorry; force of habit.
by Nico on
Sep 19, 2007 9:27 PM PDT
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we'll have nun of that
by monkeyball on
Sep 19, 2007 11:22 PM PDT
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Only if you choose to get all numerical about it
by Nico on
Sep 19, 2007 10:14 PM PDT
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thanks
I just threw up in my mouth.
Well, at least we get to see some fresh meat in the playoffs, huh? Halos! Bombers! zzzzzz....
by 67MARQUEZ on
Sep 19, 2007 10:33 PM PDT
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Go Indians and Phillies!
I like that matchup! Or Padres or DBacks or Brewers or Cubs! Come on! We can all still have fun, no? And congrats to the Rivercats! I would love it if the A's get their heads out of their butts and win out. I'll keep dreaming. Go A's!
by A'sfansince1970 on Sep 19, 2007 10:55 PM PDT 0 recs
A few points....
- Home field advantage is indeed an advantage because it not only marginally benefits the home team (despite that fact that more visiting teams have won game 7 of the world series), but if a series were to go to game 7 then the team with home field advantage would stand to make an extra games worth of money, and that matters to a team like say...THE A's!
- Its amazing to me how many people are suddenly pressing the 2008 panic button because the rag-tag AAA crew we are throwing out there is losing. SHOCKING
Enjoy the final games as a chance to separate the good pieces - the one's that will stay - from the bad, or at least undeveloped ones.
As far as pitching goes, our defense is not just bad, but atrocious right now and this is just a temporary situation. Gaudin still looks like a quality cheap arm to me, give the guy a rest. He pitched well when the defense was there, he can induce swinging strikes without problem, and its his first full year in a big league rotation...He is an immense source of value, that I'm sure most other teams would agree. He is a #3 pitcher if he can cut down the walks, and a premium #4 pitcher even if he can't.
Meyer and Braden look horrible right now, no doubt, but so did Mulder. I expect Meyer to grow as a pitcher, regain his command in AAA or even spring training, and round out the rotation (assuming healthy Harden).
No way do I expect Harden to stay healthy for a season, but can he stay healthy for the first 5+ starts of the season...please god. The longer Harden can stay healthy the more time we will have to develop our burgeoning SP prospects. Hell, Blevins could be ready to start out of spring training, crazier things - like Chad Gaudin - have happened.
Anyway, with a solid defense back out there, the A's have at least 3 solid SPs and a whole slew of potential quality that can probably provide at least league average results for a #3 + #5 SP. (Harden, Meyer, Braden, Dinardo, Blevins, and the lesser developed high-potential guys)
Of course, to regain a good defense with our current options we need Crosby at SS and Kotsay in CF with Swish in right, Buck in left, Barton at 1B, Cust at DH, and Chavez at 3B.
I've got no problem with Crosby at SS as long as he hits 9th. Unfortunately, we would have Kotsay in the lineup too, another eligible man for the job.
Quick Fix: Get Mike Cameron. We will have a strikeout parade with Cameron, Cust and Swish towards the heart of the order, but we have the money to sign Cameron, who is needed righty, the best CFer in the league (at least he was with the M's) and has some pop and enough patience to produce despite the frequent K's.
Conclusion: The 2008 A's will have a TON of "If" caliber players, but we've got no good CFer options coming up, so if the price is right on Cameron, a 3-year deal seems like optimal patchwork even if the 2008 squad is a bust.
Maybe we could even pull a fucking A trade of Johnson + Dinardo + Kotsay's contract for some crappy (but secretly awesome prospect).
I'd like to see Hannahan's .850 OPS in the lineup, but he'll probably be in it eventually anyway.
Rant transmission complete.
by SwisherSweet on Sep 20, 2007 12:59 AM PDT 0 recs
Great analysis, SwisherSweet
Essentially, the A's need to find one "hidden gem" (cheap, good), which is their strength. This year they found Cust, along with "hidden gem minuses" in DiNardo, Hannahan, and Andrew Brown. Last year they found Gaudin. Add one cheap but good find in 2008, and add one key addition (whether a new CFer, a new SP, or whatever), and the team starts to look ok.
My only concern with Cameron is his age--if he's willing to sign a shorter term deal, I'd be interested. But as you point out, he's a strike out king who would solidify CF but not the middle of the order. A significant upgrade from Kotsay/Denorfia to be sure, but not worth spending the bank on.
by Nico on
Sep 20, 2007 8:16 AM PDT
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0 recs
Mike Cameron
would be one of the worse options for the A's in CF. He's well into his decline years and was never particularly good to begin with. I'd seriously question whether he'd be an upgrade from Chris Denorfia. His career OPS is only about 30 points higher and he's well into the decline phase of his career.
In terms of desirability (taking into account the contracts that they're likely to receive), I'd rank the CF options as follows:
Fukudome (3 yrs, $36 million)
Andruw Jones (1 yr, $16 million)
Aaron Rowand (3 yrs, $40 million)
Mike Cameron (2 yrs plus option, $18+10 million)
Torii Hunter (4 yrs, $50 million)
Random other point: I do wonder whether Blevins could hack it as a starter. He's pitched effectively for up to three innings at a time for Midland and Sacto. Problem is, he's made exactly two professional starts in his life, although he pitched well as a starter in college.
by PaulThomas on
Sep 20, 2007 9:58 AM PDT
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Mike Cameron
career OPS+: 107. Aaron Rowand: 106. Torii Hunter: 104. Andruw Jones: 115. Chris Denorfia: 86.
Cameron like Rowand, Hunter and Jones is also considered a fine defender.
One of these things is not like the others, one of these things does not belong, can you tell me which of these thing is not like the others, by the time I finish this song.
In his last 3 years, "well into his decline years" Cameron's OPS+: 113, 119, 104. The last time Cameron had an OPS+ below 100 was in 1998.
by rfloh on
Sep 20, 2007 11:00 PM PDT
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0 recs
Suffice it to say
that I am unconvinced, to put it mildly, by the argument that the Petco/GAB difference is so significant in this case that Cameron's 30-point OPS difference makes him a 25% better hitter. Denorfia is not Adam Dunn, having 10 flyouts a year turned into home runs by the ballpark. If anything, a small park might well hurt a singles/doubles guy like him, because the outfielders can play closer (knowing that most balls that get over their heads will be home runs anyway).
Park factors are all well and good, but I question their utility in this case.
Also to be weighed in is the fact that a lot of Denorfia's major league at-bats were in pinch-hitting situations, which is known to negatively affect hitters' "true" performance at a significant rate. For obvious reasons, he'll be doing a lot less of that with the A's.

