Rebuilding Reminders: A Little Love For Daric And Eric
by Nico on Aug 31, 2007 8:37 AM PDT
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PrintFollowing up on Blez’ “Go The Distance” plea, and the accompanying discussion of who should stay and who should go, let me weigh in with a couple of related thoughts…
I am strongly in the camp that wants Daric Barton to remain untouchable (barring, obviously, the kind of lopsided trade offer that brought him here). I think Barton’s performance this season (in which he has batted under .300 while still lacking the power associated with a 1Bman) has lost him favor with some A’s fans, but I want to argue that Barton’s AAA stats should not discourage anyone from thinking he can, and probably will, be something truly special.
The problem with AAAA players like Dan Johnson is that they tear up AAA pitching but cannot sustain it at the next level. So their .350 batting average, or their 25 HRs, are really mirages—performances they can only produce in the minor leagues. Meanwhile, in contrast, there are players who may not put up eye-popping minor league stats, but when they are ready they can move up and succeed at the next level. Kurt Suzuki is a good example of someone who hit far worse than Dan Johnson in the minor leagues, but may prove to be a better major league hitter than Johnson—simply by replicating his solid-but-not-spectacular minor league numbers.
AAA is not about putting up a certain batting average, or a certain OPS, that proves you must be able to hit major league pitching—because it doesn’t. AAA is about getting ready for the major leagues, and that’s why the guys who are called up are often not the guys with the best stats that season or that week. The guys who are called up are often the guys who the coaches say are “throwing the ball well” or “swinging the bat well”. It’s all about process.
Daric Barton just turned 22. It makes sense that he is not yet polished, and that he has a lot to refine even as a AAA hitter. He will also disappoint fans who crave 25 HRs from their 1Bman, but he may not disappoint anyone who wants a great pure hitter with an exceptional eye. The A’s biggest problem right now is that they don’t have enough Daric Bartons; the last thing they need to do is to trade one of the few excellent prospects they have. (If Dan Johnson were a Casey Kotchman and Jason Windsor were a Jered Weaver, would we be nearly as worried about 2008?)
Also, while I appreciate what he’s done so far, I’d caution not to jump on the Jack Hannahan bandwagon too quickly. What he has proven so far is that he might be able to hit .250 with a lot of walks and mediocre power, which means his ceiling and Eric Chavez’ floor are about the same. And whether you’re looking at range or fundamentals, Hannahan’s defense, however touted, has been less than impressive to me—I notice Chavy’s absence at 3B almost every single game. So for me, “the distance” includes shedding Kotsay and even Crosby, but we don’t need another hole to fill and I haven’t seen the 3Bman yet who can make me forget about all that Chavez can do.
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Daric Barton should not be "untouchable"
and, in fact, the A's should be shopping him around to opponents who have high-ceiling prospects at less crowded positions than first base for the A's. It would be negligent not to.
But the A's should not allow themselves to accept anything less than full value-- or even value-added-- for Barton. There are hotter prospects in the game, but Barton is about as close to a "sure thing" as you can have in the minors. There just aren't that many guys who can succeed even modestly at AAA at age 21. Dealing him to satisfy some imagined need of the big-league club-- particularly, as some have suggested, using him as bait to lure opponents into taking on albatross contracts-- would be a disastrous decision.
I'm not sure you're right about this
My guess would be that MOST players who become special major leaguers put up phenomenal minor league numbers, numbers that are in fact FAR better than whatever they end up putting up in the majors. Just a quick look at baseballcube will show you that. Compare star players' minor league career totals with their major league totals and you'll see that what almost universally happens is that they experience a dropoff upon promotion, not the other way around. The best way you can predict a guy will be a .300 hitter in the bigs is when you see that he's hitting .340 in AAA, not .270. Even the BEST players have this dropoff, but since they were SO phenomenal in AAA, their MLB stats, even with the dropoff, are still damn good.
Chavez is a good example of this: .300 hitter with a .878 OPS in the minors (and this includes his first season as a 19 year old and isolated rehab visits during his career ... he had two seasons with .950+ OPS prior to being called up).
MOST, stars never make it to AAA, they go from AA
to the pros. Barton may not have 20 Hr's but he will have over 40 doubles, over 50 xbh's and a close to .300 avg. People are making too much into this lack of HR's thing.
by theblackpearl on Aug 31, 2007 9:14 AM PDT up reply actions
Not pushing the power issue
A lot of people compare Barton to a guy like Kotchman, who also had little minor league power. And if he becomes Kotchman, who's pretty good, that would be okay. But Kotchman, even without the homers, put up better OPS than Barton has, especially considering that Barton has stalled a bit of late. So he doesn't have to hit homers, but he has to do more than he's doing.
If you can't take your foot off the gas a little
..at age 21, when can you?
Compared to Chavez, whose foot has been leaving the pedal steadily since 2003, I'll take a .300+ phenom whose let things slip by twenty points in a season in his early early 20's, any time.
The difference between .300 and .280 over a season ain't a whole lot, in reality.
Take your foot off the gas?
What does THAT mean? You don't know that he's taking his foot off the gas ... maybe he's hit his limit. We don't know. Also, top prospects don't "take their foot off the gas." If he wants to make it to the show, he should be playing his ass off. And no, you DON'T want a player to slip at age 21. If he slips at 21, what will he be doing at 25?
Trust me, I am a Barton supporter. I WANT him to succeed. I just don't see the evidence right now that he is A) going to make it and b) going to be a superstar player.
By 'take his foot off the gas'...
Maybe he's trying too hard. Maybe he's carrying an injury. Maybe he's tired. Maybe his girlfriend is yelling at him.
He's 21. He's hitting fine.
no to mention
That it's been hot in Sacramento...
I agree, Barton is fine, better than fine even...
Look he had a freak injury last year. Had to take a ton of time off while healing. He then went to winter ball to get back into the swing of things, got lots of PT in Spring Training, has been a middle of the order hitter for the River Cats the whole season. He has done a ton of playing, after taking some time off for recuperation.
He's fine.
Dan Johnson is not a good player.
He is a slightly below average 1b probably already in his prime and unlikely to get better, who's primary value lies in his low cost. He is, however an MLB player, not an "AAAA" player.
His career OPS+ is 100, 102 to date this year, league average for a hitter, but below average for a 1b.
Re: Barton
I'm definitely not on the get rid of him train, but I'm certainly not seeing what I'd like to see out of him yet to want to call him up or set him up to start next season in the bigs. While I'd be happy with him hitting .300+ with an average of 20 home runs a year, I also wouldn't be happy with starting his clock and losing an option year now, before he's reached the point where he really is ready. I see out of him a guy who's hitting about .245 except for a fantastic month. For a guy like Suzuki, he put up numbers in AAA that he was expected to put up in the majors. Barton hasn't, which is why I don't want to see him as a September call up. Considering he's still very young and this is only his first full year in AAA, there's nothing wrong with holding him back. Save the option, save the service time, give him more time to improve on those intangible characteristics that you were speaking of and let's see him become more consistent.
Holding him back is fine
If he's not ready, but the bigger issue is that if he were truly special, we'd probably know by now, and he's be forcing the A's to call him up. A truly special hitter rarely comes up as a 23-24 year old rookie after several years plateuing at AAA. Sure, guys like Chase Utley appear to be exceptions to this, but I'm not sure Utley should be the comparative norm here. Utley's career arc might be unprecedented.
Point is: I'm getting a bit concerned about Barton and I'm wondering if he'll ever be the stud we need him to be.
Which also gets me to thinking, if our minor league cupboard wasn't so bare, would we be putting all our hopes on Barton like we are? I'm guessing no. He's perceived as the savior not because he actually deserves to be, but because he's all we have. I assume that in the Angels system, Barton wouldn't be much more than a blip on the screen right now.
That's unfair.
When Suzuki came up, he was, what, 25 years old?
Barton's a kid. He's hardly 'plateauing', he's just growing.
Growing, as in 'up'?
Most of us were/will be.
Also ...
Yes, Utley (I assume you meant Utley and not Suzuki) came up at 25 or so. Barton is only 22. But everyone's saying to wait, wait, wait. Well, for how long?
Um
- A+/AA, OPS 903
- AAA, OPS 784
- AAA, OPS 836 (and a lot more games played)
Players peak in the range of age 26-28. He's 22. (Recently.) And OPSing 836 in AAA.
Furthermore, while I'm never one to throw out "bad" stats because I don't like them, his numbers would look even better if you discount his terrible, rehab-like April.
but they'd look worse
if you threw out his only good month in June.
Stats don't mean much for Barton. He's the #1 prospect according to phrenology.
True, but unlike in April
there's no reason to believe that he was somehow artificially awesome in June.
Like I said, it's not necessary. I think his numbers (and PCL All-Star status) speak for themselves. It's just something else to keep in mind.
What do you, have a dentist appointment?
Also
Comparing Suzuki to DJ is sorta silly at this point for a few reasons. DJ was a .900 OPS power hitter in AAA who hasn't replicated these numbers and has become a .750 OPS major leaguer. A big drop off, but on the whole, still moderately productive. Suzuki was a .800 OPS minor leaguer whose dropoff has not been as severe, but who is still OPSing lower than Johnson, even as Johnson is perceived as a bust.
So it's not that Suzuki is a rousing success (because he's not, yet), it's just that he hasn't disappointed like DJ has. I'm not sure his ceiling is that high and to expect anything CLOSE to a .900 OPS or anything like that is silly. He MIGHT be a .800 OPS guy at some point.
So you're comparing a 23 year old rookie with a low ceiling to a rousing failure, and the rookie still doesn't look all that hot. The comparison doesn't seem to work.
Next year
It is very likely that Suzuki wouldn't even be in the big leagues this year (with the exception of a September call-up) if Kendall hadn't been so aweful offensively and the A's had remained a contender. So I think that whatever he puts up this year is a bonus and I'll start judging him next year.
also, Suzuki must first and foremost
handle the catcher's job. Offensive production, while certainly important, isn't the primary concern.
By contrast, a first baseman must be strong offensively. Especially given that Barton -- and DJ -- aren't defensive whizzes, they must be very strong offensively at the MLB level.
No way is he "untouchable"
I know you mean to say it would take a lopsided trade to make him untouchable, but it shouldn't even take that.
I'd gladly trade Barton straight up for a prospect that can actually field a position.
You would be opposed to Barton for Hu? Or Barton for Ellsbury?
by black beane and rice on Aug 31, 2007 9:11 AM PDT reply actions
Those would both be bad, bad moves
The A's need players who can hit, not slap-hitting glove dudes. Hu's batting numbers are impossibly high at any level of play, and Ellsbury's power potential is not much higher than Reggie Willits's.
who cares
What is Barton going to provide? Hatty-esque numbers with worse than Hatty-esque defense at a position that has the least impact on the defensive side of things.
I sure as hell would trade that for a Vizquel-esque player.
by black beane and rice on Aug 31, 2007 9:46 AM PDT up reply actions
uh cause they're not even close?
What bat does Barton provide that the A's desperately need? For starters, he isn't the power slugging hitter that you think he is or think he may become. Second, he plays a position where we can already put someone with a very productive bat.
Why not trade a strength for a weakness? I'm not talking about only Hu or Ellsbury. Those were just two names I mentioned and you decided to run with that, missing the main point.
It doesn't have to take an overwhelming bamboozle of a deal to move Barton. If you can move his 1B/DH talent for equal talent at a position the A's actually need help, why wouldn't you?
by black beane and rice on Aug 31, 2007 10:14 AM PDT up reply actions
Where's the rush?
The kid can hit - you know it, I know it, other GMs know it. But we have years til we have to make a call on him.
Let him mature, see what happens. To trade now is to fold on a potential flush before the river has been turned.
this is what I'm talking about
Why does it have to be seen as rushing things? Apparently people already overvalue him as a commodity and any discussion about trading him for anything short of a landslide is seen as giving up on him. What exactly does he provide that another prospect cant?
Maybe it's just me, but if you can move him for someone that can hit and actually play defense, then I would do it.
by black beane and rice on Aug 31, 2007 10:39 AM PDT up reply actions
On the other side of that..
Always a crap shoot, but you have to play for the high pay-out.
Except the guy plays
1b.
Suzuki was having 200-hit seasons in
Japan by the time he was 20. Barton simply doesn't have that upside. I agree that we have time to decide what to do with him, but that time may come at the expense of the '08 and '09 seasons for the A's, and he still might not have a high pay out.
I would
and if you had actually read my comments above, you'd know this.
But-- I'd far rather get a legit hitter, like Balentien, than a high-contact low-power guy like Ellsbury. Barton has the potential to hit 15-25 HR a year in the majors. That's good enough, whereas in my book the 5-10 that the guys you named will likely hit is not.
So you'd rather have 15 HRs
from your DH than 5 from your gold-glove calibur SS? Interesting.
by black beane and rice on Aug 31, 2007 10:40 AM PDT up reply actions
We already have a gold-glove caliber SS
Two, actually.
So you're saying 1B/DH is more of a pressing need
than SS? We already have 15 HR potential at 1B and DH. And Petit is far from gold-glove calibur.
by black beane and rice on Aug 31, 2007 10:50 AM PDT up reply actions
I'm going by the scouting reports
which have him as one of the top fielding shortstops in the entire minor leagues.
What are you going by?
Well, I hate to break it to ya
but I have to go with the pro's opinion over yours here. You may be right, but their credentials carry the day with me.
I don't care which opinion you take
just as long as you form your own opinion, which would include watching him play.
Anyways, back to my question you didn't answer. 1B/DH is more of a pressing need than SS?
by black beane and rice on Aug 31, 2007 11:03 AM PDT up reply actions
Depends on what you want out of each postion. If
you want a glove man at ss, then we have enough of them, where if you have a power hitting 1b, and DH,and Chavy is back to 30 HR, then you can hide your ss in the 8th spot, and then even Crosby is acceptable.
by theblackpearl on Aug 31, 2007 11:13 AM PDT up reply actions
barton isn't a power hitting 1b/dh
by black beane and rice on Aug 31, 2007 11:18 AM PDT up reply actions
Well, that's not real likely
which is why we have things like "magazines" and "internet."
As for the other question: the team has a pressing need for a top-notch hitter. I don't care where he gets slotted into the defense. The A's cannot afford to be sacrificing offense for defense at this point. Since it's a pipe dream at best to think someone's going to offer an equivalent offensive player to Barton who can also play a skill position, I guess that makes first base more of a pressing issue.
I'd much rather get a slugging left fielder to cover for Crosby than a slappy dude to replace him.
Hellz yes
Too bad there's no way in hell Cincy would make that trade.
I agree with you Mr. Thomas
I think its very hard to calibrate a player's defensive skills just by watching them play. Flashy players can fool even the best of coaches and sports writers even when they are mediocre defensivly. The best example of this is Derek Jeter. He wins gold gloves despite costing his team many many runs per year due to his horrible range. But hey, he must be the best cause he makes it look good.
by GusanoQuemador on Aug 31, 2007 3:44 PM PDT up reply actions
it has nothing to do with looking for
flashy plays and spins and dives. He has a good arm, good range to his right, but numerous times has either rushed his throw, had issues with transferring the ball from glove hand to bare hand, or wasn't in sync on DPs.
You say its hard to judge a player's defensive skills by just watching them play. I say it's even harder to judge their skills by just taking someone else's written word for it.
by black beane and rice on Aug 31, 2007 4:13 PM PDT up reply actions
But its not about that
Its about studying computer data which use sophisticated computer programs to evaluate a player's defensive range & efficiancy. Seeing a player play is imoportant but its only a small piece of the puzzle.
by GusanoQuemador on Aug 31, 2007 5:04 PM PDT up reply actions
to much panic going on
Every newspaper is carrying a story about the A's rebuilding. They are not rebuilding but getting rid of players who no longer will be around next year. Next years outfeild is pretty much set with buck, swisher, denforia, snelling, cust, and kotsay idf healthy. Catching is pretty much the same with suzuki and bowen/back up. DH most likely Cust. Infeild has chavez, ellis, scutaro, murhpy, crosby, and hannahan. So it leaves firstbase. DJ or Barton? This is where the A's will bring in a power hitter. I would not be surprised if Beane makes a impact trade in the offseason. I am pretty sure it will not involve a starting pitcher unless the A's are overwhelmed by the offer. As for the bullpen it is set unless a lefthanded relief comes along.
Hmmm...
Some of your arguments here are contradictory. You would not be surprised if Beane made an "impact" trade, but it'll be nearly impossible to make an impact trade without trading a starter (which you think he won't do), since Beane has really nothing else to offer that would be either enticing to other teams and/or NOT a cornerstone of our franchise (Swisher, Buck, Street).
Therefore, if Beane DOES make an impact trade, he will most certainly use a starting pitcher or two, and then obviously we'll be in rebuilding mode.
So basically, pick your poison. Either Beane makes an impact trade or two and builds for the future in rebuilding mode, or he doesn't make a significant trade and plays with more or less the hand he's got next season.
He (or us the fans) can't have it both ways.
Trade Street
If you're going to trade pitching, trade Huston Street. He's an injury waiting to happen, and he's young enough to bring back something decent in return.
by Colorado Fan on Aug 31, 2007 1:25 PM PDT up reply actions
Could be an "impact" trade involving Barton/DJ
and one of our several #4 or #5 starters, i.e. DiNardo.
The biggest thing that makes me think guys like Blanton and Gaudin aren't going anywhere is that they were continually run out there with Suzuki when it was obvious they were struggling with him behind the plate. And continued to do so even when Blanton performed really well in that start where Bowen caught him. If they were trying to showcase them for trading, wouldn't they maybe have tried that Bowen thing again? Nope. Joe needs to get comfortable with his catcher for 2008. Same with Chad. Luckily, it looks like they're coming around.
Maybe too simple, and I certainly don't think their value has been diminished by the catcher thing (credit Suzuki for that), but it makes me think the A's are fully planning on keeping those guys around barring some kind of staggering offer.
by AintEasyBeinGreen on Aug 31, 2007 10:00 AM PDT reply actions
of course, it's probably more
about Suzuki than the pitchers. I'm just conjecturing cause I really don't want to see those guys go
by AintEasyBeinGreen on Aug 31, 2007 10:04 AM PDT up reply actions
Philadelphia Legacy
Is the Eric bashing a result of the A's Philadelphia legacy? I see parallels to the Phillies fans running Scott Rholen out of town. I agree that Chavez floor is Hannanhan's ceiling. If Chavez does not get healthier, and sustains this level of performance, the A's will be paying a huge premium. The problem, as has been stated elsewhere, Chavez trade value can't get much lower; dumping him and his salary in not going to be possible.
by NoeValley on Aug 31, 2007 10:09 AM PDT reply actions
His trade value has lowered every year since '03
Chavez was once capable of hitting 40 dingers a year.
But now, he's as capable of doing so as Wade Boggs is of hitting .300 - he's done.
And not for nothing, but even Chavez at his best was never superstar great. Not $10m a year great.
I beg to differ
Chavez at his best was better than Gil Meche or Jason Marquis.
Have you seen his best in the last four years?
So Chavez at his best wasn't worth $10M,
because Chavez isn't at his best anymore?
Huh?
At his best, Rogers Horsnby was awesome.
You're confusing Zhavez's best ever with his best abilities now. Or last year. Or the year before...
Hannahan's Floor
I'm not sure why people think Hannahan's ceiling is Chavez's floor. That's really insulting to Hannahan. From what I've seen of him I think his ceiling can be somewhere in the .280/20 HR/85 RBI range. His OPS is over .800 right now and I'm think his ceiling can be in the mid-.800's. That's more than serviceable for a good if not great fielding 3B.
Has everyone forgotten that Chavez's OPS was below .800 for the past 3 years if you include this year? Has everyone forgotten that Chavez's BA over the past 2 years has been around .240? Granted, Hannahan's ceiling is nowhere near Chavez's but I don't think people are giving enough credit. One think I'm fairly certain about is that going forward Hannahan's OBP will be better than Chavez's.
by oakfan2000 on Aug 31, 2007 10:44 AM PDT up reply actions
Sorry about the typos
How do you edit posts?
by oakfan2000 on Aug 31, 2007 10:46 AM PDT up reply actions
You can't edit posts
by kaweahkaweah on Aug 31, 2007 11:04 AM PDT up reply actions
That sucks
I guess that's what the preview screen is for, huh?
by oakfan2000 on Aug 31, 2007 11:10 AM PDT up reply actions
Hannahan is 27 y/o, and this is the first year he
has ever hit double digit homeruns, so how do you figure he will get to 20?
by theblackpearl on Aug 31, 2007 10:59 AM PDT up reply actions
He's 27 years old
not 35. He's just entering his prime and can get better. He's hit 15 HRs in AAA and the majors combined this year. Is it impossible that he can improve on that a little bit over the next 5 years or so? Looking at his career minor league numbers you wouldn't think that he could put up an OPS of close to .900 this year but he has. It could be a career year, or maybe he's just a late bloomer.
by oakfan2000 on Aug 31, 2007 11:09 AM PDT up reply actions
A Case for Barton
Barton is younger than most of our entire Single-A Stockton team and he's already at AAA and outhitting all of those older guys in other parts of the system. While that fact is partly an indicator of the weakness of our system, it's also an indicator of Barton's talent.
He really is a great pure hitter. I'm not particularly concerned about power stats or fluctuations in batting average at this point partly because of what has happened with Travis Buck.
I admit that at this point last season I was unconvinced that Buck would develop enough power to be a credible major league corner outfielder. Well, he certainly proved me wrong by basically skipping AAA altogether and hitting his most homers as a professional this season while missing tons of time due to injury.
While Buck posted higher overall minor league slugging percentages than Barton up to this point (.507 to .465), Barton has a higher career on-base percentage (.415 to .398), to give them fairly comparable career OPS's (.905 to .875), considering that Buck is about a year and a half older than Barton and that Barton has always played a level or two above his age, while Buck always played within his cohort, more or less.
A more important comparison is a direct hit-by-hit one that we can take for both hitters at the exact same point of development. Both Barton and Buck made big strides during their High-A/Double A season (2006 for Buck, 2005 for Barton).
In roughly the same number of at-bats and at the same level, Barton and Buck had nearly identical numbers of extra base hits:
Buck in High-A Ball - 17 doubles, 3 triples, 3 homeruns
Barton in High-A Ball - 16 doubles, 2 triples, 8 homeruns
Buck in Double-A - 21 doubles, 1 triple, 4 homeruns
Barton in Double-A - 20 doubles, 1 triple, 5 homeruns
That's a pretty shockingly similar line of statistics.
Now, taking all that into account, would you still think about trading Barton knowing that there is a very good chance he is close to being another Travis Buck? That's for you to decide, but personally, I think both Barton and Buck are special talents that will perfectly compliment Swisher and Cust at the top of the order for years to come.
Keep Barton. Trade DJ. Shift Buck to center. Get a young-ish right-handed hitting outfielder. Case closed.
Buck vs. Barton
I like Buck and pushed for him to make the team out of spring training , but he's probably not going to develop into a great statistical player. A solid corner OF yes, but not exactly the core of a championship-winning team.
All that aside, if Barton is basically Buck without speed or defense, that's not a great prospect. Solid, yes. Special, no.
"Great" Statistical Player
While there is a chance that Buck never "develops" into a truly cornerstone-type of statistical offensive player, there's no way you can argue that he's NOT having a "pretty-close-to-great" statistical rookie season.
I mean, a line of .288/.377/.475 is pretty damn good for a guy who basically completely skipped AAA altogether and seeks to improve on those marks as he hits his physical prime.
Now, if Barton came up next season and authored that line over the course of the year, then I'd suspect that almost all of AN would be happy and the team would be winning a lot of games with a close-to league average offense.
So why would people be so quick to trade Barton when, whether through "statistical greatness" or just solid hitting, he has strong potential to improve our offense at a rock-bottom price in roughly the same way that Buck has done this year?
That line is more impressive
when park adjusted. Without adjusting for park, that's slightly above league average for a corner. Park adjusted it's easily above average: OPS+ of 127. This is at the age of 23
projected OPS+ at age 29
127
He'll be a solid .290-.300 with 30-40 doubles a year guy. Great #7 hitter.
So a guy...
who's projected to be solidly above-average offensively and defensively for the next 6 seasons and has already taken pretty well to the leadoff spot in his rookie season is not good enough for the top of YOUR order?
Wow...do tell who'd you rather have at a similar financial price at that position (corner outfield) and how'd you go about procuring that player without completely gutting our roster?
A great 7th hitter that in our lineup
will bat cleanup frequently?
I wonder what our winning percentage
is this year with Buck in the lineup and without him. I'm sure it's not a huge jump, but it would be interesting to see for anyone who knows or cares to figure that out. Especially as he's matured over this season, I just feel better about this team when he's in there. He has the ability to make good things happen. If Barton can play like that too, no way do you trade him until you see what he can do in the bigs. Why should we "audition" Murphy, Furmaiak, and the rest and not Barton? We just haven't done it with Barton cause the people who play his position right now aren't hurt. I have no doubt he will make his debut next month when the rosters expand.
I'm not an very astute observer of the fine points of player quality, but I know what I see in Buck and Barton (yes, I've seen Barton play), and I like it a lot. If there's a runner on base, esp in scoring position, I don't quite care if a guy hits a homerun or a double, so long as we SCORE A RUN. Speaking of which, anyone care to report Barton's numbers with RISP? I think that stat might trump all others with me at this point.
by AintEasyBeinGreen on Aug 31, 2007 1:18 PM PDT reply actions
I agree
I want guys to be around .280-.300 batting average. Homeruns aren't the problem (7th in the AL). OBP isn't the problem (8th in the AL). Batting average has been the problem for the last 3+ Years (13th in the AL this year, 13th last year, and 11th in 2005)
I'm sick of seeing the A's clutter the basebaths (OBP), then fail to bring them in with a simple basehit. How many times has Buck led off an inning w/ a triple, only to be left stranded on 3rd base. Probably happened 60-80% of the time Buck hit a triple.
Base Knocks aren't a bad thing. Taking 3rd Call Strikes w/ the RISP is a problem.
by Colorado Fan on Aug 31, 2007 1:42 PM PDT up reply actions
The broader problem
Buck has hit only 5 triples and I am too lazy to find how many led off innings and how many time she scored. My eyes tell me the A's are below average at scoring runners from 3rd with less than 2 out as well as hitting with the bases loaded. Does anyone have data handy? If my observations are supported by data I think the problem is approach. Patience isn't always rewarded. I don't want Swisher to turn into Pedro Feliz. I want to see him, and others, look like he has a plan to score the runner form 3rd. Expand the strike zone if it is a ball you can hit in the air to the outfield.
by NoeValley on Aug 31, 2007 1:58 PM PDT up reply actions
Hitting with RISP
is not a repeatable skill. Every batter eventually regresses toward his mean batting average to an overwhelming degree. It's no more informative than what a guy hits on odd-numbered days of the month.
Tell that to Bret Saberhagen? :)
That's Stats!
If stats told the entire story about a player, why even bother having scouts or any of the other methods used to evaluate players? All statistics can be misleading and can have massive holes poked in them by a person who cares to dig.
However, since we're comparing stats and using that in this thread to evaluate whether or not we should be trading our top prospect, I don't think it's an irrelavent question to ask how he does when he has an opportunity to bring a runner home, seeing as how the guys on the big club often can't do it to save their lives (or their season, as it were).
Also, even if a player's RISP #s would eventually regress to reflect his mean BA over the course of his career, it would be nice to know that he has the potential to raise those #s to a higher level at times during his career. For example, if his career BA is .280, and his career BA w/ RISP is relatively similar, it would be nice to know that in one particular season, he hit .340 w/ RISP, rather than never showing the potential to hit above .280 in any situation.
by AintEasyBeinGreen on Aug 31, 2007 6:19 PM PDT up reply actions
I think there are a bunch of wildcards regarding
Barton's expendability. (WARNING! Long-winded hypothetical scenarios ahead!)
First is the outfield, as it determines whether or not we can move Swisher to first.
Denorfia and Barton have put up pretty similar AAA numbers - pretty good average, tons of walks, and moderate slugging. Denorfia is five years older but plays a tougher position. Its questionable whether he'll be ready to go in '08 considering he's been out a year. If he pans out, we've got an outfield spot taken care of and it might make more sense to put Swisher at first.
Not that Denorfia and Barton are in any way mutually exclusive. We could always put Swisher at first, Cust and Denorfia in the outfield, and Barton at DH, or alternatively Barton at first, Swisher and Denorfia in the outfield, and Cust at DH, which would probably be the optimal scenario if the A's 40 man roster were to remain as is going into next year.
Of course, the more troubling, but not unlikely, scenario would be that neither Denorfia or Barton are ready to go next year, in which case an FA outfielder might end up in the mix (I think this scenario is all the more likely considering Buck's persistent tendency toward injury over the last couple years). Either that, or another year of Kotsay/Johnson.
In any case, if by '09 the A's can put Swisher at first and still field a solid outfield, it would be kind of stupid not to consider trading Barton unless he's gonna outproduce either our 1B or DH (probably Swisher and Cust), and I'm not sure Barton will be that good.
I guess what I'm saying is that there's the potential to have enough overall depth ahead of Barton to the point where he'd become tradeable, whether this depth comes internally or through the FA route.
A second wildcard would be the FA market. This years FA class promises mediocre talent at high prices. In a year where 32 year old Torii Hunter's .797 career OPS promises to be a big mover and shaker in determining the FA market, you have to wonder if a lot of clubs - especially those with a payroll in the lower 2/3 - aren't going to see more room for improvement in swapping solid AAA prospects with other poor ball clubs as fits their needs.
The A's need a reliable SS and CF more than they need a 1B, so maybe the A's could swap Barton to fill one of these holes.
At the same time, this scenario doesn't by any means necessitate trading Barton (the only reason they would trade Barton would be if they are serious about contending in '08). The A's are essentially two deep at every infield position right now, so there are plenty of other young trading chips.
Basically, as far as the trade market goes, I think the A's are better served by having Hannahan, Murphy, and Barton, than they are by having Kotsay, Crosby, and Chavez, and I would be fine with trading anyone if it can make the A's better next year.
Barton/Grieve
I want to be optimistic about Barton. When Grieve was 22 he was AL ROY with a .844 OPS. Grieve's minor league performance dwarfed Barton's.
by NoeValley on Aug 31, 2007 2:20 PM PDT reply actions
Players progress at different rates
They're individuals and not every one will follow the improvement curve of some average projection over the life span of their careers. Some will hit a plateau at a relatively early age while others may continue to improve well into their '30's. With that as a precursor I'm willing to give Barton the benefit of the doubt because he is so young to be hitting so well at AAA. However, that doesn't mean that I wouldn't trade him if the right deal came along.
by oakfan2000 on Aug 31, 2007 2:50 PM PDT reply actions
I say wait on Barton.
I think he will end up being special. He looks like he belongs on the big team. Yes I have seen him play. Give him some more time.
by A'sfansince1970 on Aug 31, 2007 2:57 PM PDT up reply actions
OaklandA23 is not a rumor
He's pretty much God when it comes to the A's moves.
by Dusty Baker on Aug 31, 2007 3:35 PM PDT up reply actions
yea he's CC'd on all the A's Media Releases
by GusanoQuemador on Aug 31, 2007 3:47 PM PDT up reply actions
I think (s)he is doing the CC-ing
since they always appear here a couple of hours ahead of the rest of the media.
by green star oakland on Aug 31, 2007 4:20 PM PDT up reply actions
yea but
The story is released by the A's a couple hours before you see it in any news medium. Thats how the media gets the news.
I seriously doubt that the folks actually releasing the information with the A's are taking the time to post the story on AN. It could be some bored A's employee, it could be someone who works for FSN, it could even be Blez under a pseudonym as I'm sure he's cc'd on those releases as well
Either was its reliable info coming directly out of the A's front office. Thanks 23
by GusanoQuemador on Aug 31, 2007 4:41 PM PDT up reply actions
!@$%!@#$ pissed about these moves
haven't added anything about the moves for awhile, and while this isn't some amazing bit of insight I'm sharing, I just needed to get it off my chest.
I'm pissed about giving all these players away. It riles me like I've never been riled before as an A's fan. Free. Gratis. I realize that Loiza was injured, and so, couldn't showcase his ability before the trade deadline, but seriously - considering we gave up Milton Bradley for 1 arm (that throws serious heat, and seems to be pretty good) and Loiza for nada, then DFA/waive Kielty, only to have him sign with Boston, and so on and so on.
Seriously, I'm not a GM, so maybe I'm way off base here, but giving Loiza away makes me SO mad, coming on the heels of the Bradley steal, er, deal. It doesn't even make it better to think the Dodgers "might" play nice when we trade with 'em next time. I don't want to get rid of Blanton, even if we get something "extra" from the Dodgers. !@$!!@#%*&!@$ I can't even explain it other than to want to swear continuously for the rest of the season. Loiza was cheap, and I bet you he does REALLY well for the Dodgers - hell, even if he doesn't this year, for absolutely nothing, he doesn't need to do much.
aarrrrrggghhhhhhH! whatever is behind it, it sucks. someone else on the list would've made some offer. i guess the bright side is that we didn't take Brett Tomko off their hands. most frustrating season ever.
ok. doesn't change anything, but i got it off my chest.
I understand how you feel,
But I can understand Beane's reasoning if he is focused soley on cutting deadwood out of the organization. But in just giving away Loaiza I have to wonder if he couldn't have at least sent either Crosby or Kotsay packing along with him. Sort of, "Hey, we'll give you this guy and get nothing in return, but you've got to take this worthless CF with you too." I could understand it then. I don't get just giving the guy away for nothing. Wait until early next season when pitchers start going down and then trade him to some would be contender who thinks they have to have him to keep hope alive.
The thing with Beane is...you get the feeling that he is a soulless commodities broker who deals in human flesh with nary a consideration that they actually breath and speak. I really don't mind when he does it with players....but when you get the feeling that he is perfectly content to screw the fans with mediocre teams until the move to Fremont is imminent, I get a little nervous. Will Billy prove to be the tin man with a heart, or a Terminator with a defined program and purpose? Winter 2007/2008 will be a telling season I think.
"The thing with Beane is
you get the feeling that he is a soulless commodities broker who deals in human flesh with nary a consideration that they actually breathe and speak."
Nice. And for the record, I DO mind when players are treated that way. I mind when ANY human beings are treated that way. It's never necessary and it's never good business.
I don't imagine it's really all that bad
Can you imagine what it's like to walk into the front office with Beane and know that something is in the works though? He's probably staring at you with the eternally hungry eyes of a shark about to make yet another kill. I would be left thinking that if it were possible for a shark to shed a tear....how would you know?
Maybe it's just FSU's machinations about Beane and Lew that are making me nervous....but I have no doubt that Billy is more than capable of whispering sweet nothings to the fans on one hand while sharpening the long knives with the other. I can't bear the thought that 2008 and 2009 will be a repeat of this year. I would feel much more comfortable if I were convinced he is using his powers of evil to the detriment of the other 29 MLB teams instead of us. I'm feeling nostalgic I suppose...but the lyrics of, "One night in Bangkok" are teasing me.
Hanahan
Seems like he could be a solid backup 3B-1B guy - a guy who could spell Chavez and Barton next year...get about 150-200 AB's, and not dramatically kill you in games while he's out there.
Melillo or Murphy can do the same next year as a backup 2B-SS replacing Scutaro. Now just figure out if either of these guys can play everyday at SS, see if one of the other guys in the minors can make the jump like Buck did (Pennington, Petit), or trade for a SS, and the infield is set, and fairly solid.
Swisher and Buck in the outfield. Find a CF in the offseason. Denorfia is the 4th OF.
Looking at it, even with all this housecleaning, the A's still won't have that many decisions to make in the offseason (SS, CF) and spring training will pretty much only yield competition for the 5th spot in the rotation (DiNardo, Braden, Meyer).
This team still isn't that far away, and if that 20 million saved produces a productive CF OR SS, this could be a 88-90 win team next year - assuming someone wraps Larry Davis in bubble wrap and cellophane and doesn't allow him to touch a single player in 08.
But what to do with Kotsay & Crosby
If all you can get for Estaban Loaiza is an extra spot on your roster then what do you expect to get for Crosby and Kotsay? We literally could not give those 2 away at this point (well maybe Crosby). Those guys are going to fill a spot on our roster whether we like it or not
by GusanoQuemador on Aug 31, 2007 5:50 PM PDT up reply actions
It's worse than that.
Crosby will most likely be taking the field as the A's ss in spring of 2008.
Nooooo-o-o-ooooo!!!!!!
<cries>
So that leaves us with Kotsey,
will Beane trade him and eat part of his lofty salary? Hopefully even better, Kotsey decides to retire, due to his bad back.
by Mikkoo on Aug 31, 2007 10:56 PM PDT reply actions
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