It's Cust-a-rific!
by baseballgirl on Aug 22, 2007 1:21 PM PDT
in News
78 comments
Ahem....I have an announcement to make:
THE A’S ARE AT .500!!!!
I honestly don’t know what to do with that. I didn’t think it would happen. Where do we go from here? With an injury-ravaged team that sees Scutaro batting fifth? Maybe simply getting here is enough. Maybe winning games with a lineup cobbled together with back-up players that are playing for nothing except fun and glory is enough.
I feel like making a ‘Circle of Life’ reference, except instead of from birth to death, it could be from the field to the DL. As we lose players (Donnie Murphy, we hardly knew ya’ and thanks a lot for cutting short your campaign to replace Crosby; I will blame you next year), we get players back like Esteban Loaiza. Today’s game saw E-Lo completing five innings only giving up one hit. Unfortunately, that one hit was a homerun. I blame the poster heretofore known as ‘Jinxy McJinx’. You know who you are. It didn’t seem to throw him off, as he pitched into the eighth, before turning it over to Embree for the save.
Regarding Scutaro batting fifth, I imagine Geren was simply thinking of who he could put into the slot behind Cust, whose OBP is over .500 in the last 20 games. He is absolutely going to get on base, more often than not, it seems, we need someone to be able to hit behind him, specifically not into double plays. Someone in marketing should really have capitalized on the A’s. The Pepsi DP Crew. Free pizza if the A’s hit into four or more double plays in a game. DP’s for troops. I’m pretty sure they could fund the Hundred Years’ War.
It seems that Cust got tired of being erased off the basepaths, and decided to take matters into his own hands--hitting what would prove to be the winning homerun. Cust is the player I always wanted Chavez to be on offense; high OBP and good power.
This was a big win for the A’s. Too little; too late might still apply, but it’s amazing how much more fun a little offense married to a little pitching can be.
And here’s a little non- sequitur for the afternoon. What is Reed Johnson wearing on his face in his gameday photo?!
The A’s head to Tampa Bay for a four game series starting tomorrow.
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Standings Updated!
Go A's Go!
by louismg on Aug 22, 2007 1:12 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
A's Continue Wednesday Dominance
The team is now:
6-3 on Wednesday day games (.667)
13-7 on all Wednesday games (.650)
Go team go!
by louismg on Aug 22, 2007 1:25 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Reed Johnson
if anyone wondered what Swisher's hair contribution ended up getting used for...
by oblique on Aug 22, 2007 1:30 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Wolverine pelt?
I hear they're stylish, these days.
by The Dogfather on Aug 23, 2007 10:45 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Or they cleaned the clubhouse shower drains?
by The Dogfather on Aug 23, 2007 12:43 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Avoiding DPs
If the goal is to avoid double plays than Scutaro is an absolutely bizarre choice. He has the highest rate of GIDP on the team (not counting Hannahan with a remarkable 3 GIDPs in 6 opportunities.)
The A's who have been the best at staying out of double plays are Suzuki, Cust, Ellis, and Kotsay. Given the current lack of good hitters, Ellis seems like the best choice to be hitting behind Swisher and Cust.
by andeux on Aug 22, 2007 1:38 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Are you mikeAl Urban?
by andeux on Aug 22, 2007 1:57 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Cust's OBP, FB/GB ratio, and freaky BABIP ...
... make him the ideal guy to hit behind himself in the lineup.
by monkeyball on Aug 22, 2007 1:47 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
and, yes Freaky Babip is Shooty's brother
by monkeyball on Aug 22, 2007 1:48 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Freaky?
It's .333. That's hardly outrageous.
Looking at fangraphs.com, he's hit line drives in something like 25% of his at-bats. His distribution is something like 40/35/25 GB/FB/LD. League average is 45/36/19. Line drives are significantly more likely to become hits than grounders or fly balls. Hardball Times found that on the whole, hitters will post a BABIP around .120 plus their line drive percentage; if so, Cust is actually underperforming significantly, probably due to his, uh, unspectacular baserunning skills.
by PaulThomas on Aug 22, 2007 3:23 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I thought it was just freaky
that Cust has already joined Bay Area Blacks In Philanthropy.
by phastphill on Aug 22, 2007 3:25 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
oh, crap!
I'd better delete your post before Billy sees it and DsFA Cust.
by monkeyball on Aug 22, 2007 3:43 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
uh, really?
fangraphs.com says that Cust's BABIP is .380, and this fella sez that "league average for BABIP tends to be between .290 and .300."
I mean, Cust has 113 Ks in 283 ABs, yet has a .272 AVG -- he by definition has to have a high BABIP.
(And if HRs counted in BABIP, it'd be even more ridiculous.)
by monkeyball on Aug 22, 2007 3:42 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
On the THT internal list, it was mentioned that
his average flyball is worth .6 runs. He has a cartoonish rate of home runs per fly ball of 34.2% (by far tops in the league).
by salb918 on Aug 22, 2007 3:46 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
the standard Giants fan response ...
... to every single Bonds pop fly (or, for that matter, any Giants pop fly) -- rising halfway out of one's seat in anticipation, sucking in air in preparation for a barbaric yawp -- would actually be entirely appropriate for Cust.
by monkeyball on Aug 22, 2007 3:52 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
One out of three times, you'd've been rewarded
(Neither of the rates I quoted are anywhere near sustainable.)
by salb918 on Aug 22, 2007 3:57 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Cust
After Cust's great start in May (though with a slump at the end of the month), devo posted this diary, trying to predict how Cust would do for the rest of the year.
The more optimistic of his two predictions: .167/.378/.459
My prediction: .213/.370/.488
Actual numbers, since that date (not including today): .289/.408/.517
Around the same time, I pointed out that Cust's numbers for the year were eerily similar to Adam Dunn's. They remain so. (Dunn: .266/.377/.559 overall, Cust: .277/.408/.541).
Four months is still a pretty small sample in the grand scheme of things, but it's big enough that at this point I have to believe that Cust is for real, and is one of those rare hitters who can be extremely productive despite striking out in a third of his plate appearances.
by andeux on Aug 22, 2007 4:10 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
devo's wasn't a prediction,
more of an answer to Cust skeptics (are there any left?).
I would guess ~.250/.380/.515 for next year.
by mikeA on Aug 22, 2007 4:20 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Not
counterfactual! We should thank our lucky stars that Cust ended his slump a few days before Piazza could come off the DL.
by mikeA on Aug 22, 2007 4:29 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Well, there aren't any Cust skeptics left...
that count.
by Poppy on Aug 23, 2007 7:13 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
heh heh heh
"his BABIP will probably be something like .270"
by monkeyball on Aug 22, 2007 4:52 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Just answering the skeptics ...
not a prediction, as MikeA noted ...
Not surprisingly, since then he has not continued to have 75% of his hits go for extra bases. That's roughly dropped by half to 38% -- at roughly the 50-50 hr to 2b distribution. He has cut his k-rate slightly, over 600 PAs he would only strike out 187 times but his walk rate has dropped significantly, down to 102 over 600 PAs.
He's replaced those walks with a ton of singles (relatively speaking). Increasing to 18% of his ABs from 5.5% back then ...
But, anyway ... the point was that small sample sizes can say just about anything and that even the small sample size that everyone was complaining about said pretty valuable things ...
by devo on Aug 22, 2007 5:18 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Am I using the wrong formula?
(H-HR)/(AB-HR-K) is the formula I'm using; granted this does not count sac flies and a few other things, but those are pretty insignificant.
I think the .380 is his "contact average," which is to say his average in at-bats where he does not strike out. At one point in the season, his contact average was second in all of baseball behind B.J. Upton.
by PaulThomas on Aug 22, 2007 6:23 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
That's the right formula
(77-20)/(283-20-113) = .380 exactly
by andeux on Aug 22, 2007 6:35 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
That's the right formula
and it comes out to .380.
by mikeA on Aug 22, 2007 6:35 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Weird
Must have forgotten to subtract home runs from the denominator.
Still... OK, so he should be BABIPing .350, hitting .250, and hitting 30 HR a (full) season, instead of .380/.270/40. Those are still very good numbers, though.
I'm just impressed with how hard he hits balls. Almost everything off his bat is clubbed, even the fly balls (they just happen to be clubbed at a rather high trajectory). And by and large the data seem to back me up, in that a. he really does do this, and b. it is an offensively useful trait.
by PaulThomas on Aug 23, 2007 12:12 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I wonder how many runs
A lineup of all Jack Cust's would produce?
by Shippee33 on Aug 22, 2007 5:45 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
and how many runs
a defense made up of all Jack Custs would give up?
by OaklandSi on Aug 23, 2007 12:19 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
To Make the Day Complete
I want to see Lackey get POUNDED by a furious and frustrated Yankee team, get yanked in the third, and then see the Angels come back and win by one run. (Then the Angels can hit the skids.) Because my one big hope for the rest of this season (outside of a miracle stretch for the A's) is to see the Yankees miss the playoffs, with Roger Clemons booed off the mound in NY in the season's last game. That would be so very satisfying. And so very right.
And good job E-Lo. Thanks.
by SportySpice on Aug 22, 2007 1:43 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
I don't want to see Clemens booed off the mound
He's one of the greatest pitchers of all time... not always a class act, but not really a total jerk, either.
However, I second the sentiment about the Yankees not making the playoffs. I would cry tears of joy if that would happen.
Although I'm not a Brewers fan, I pledged to pee my pants if the Brewers make the playoffs, because, well, I think it's pretty awesome that people are pledging to piss themselves if the Brewers get in.
I'd love to see the Brewers clinch on the same day the Yankees get eliminated. I'll eat some runny burritos that day and leak out of all my orifices at once. Too bad I can't lactate!
by The Pilots Dared Me To Die on Aug 22, 2007 2:31 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
that day should be called "Elimination Day"
by monkeyball on Aug 22, 2007 3:16 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Don't, please.
Instead, draw a cartoon of Brian Cashman & Stienbrenner leaking coins out in a similar manner.
by MobiusKlein on Aug 22, 2007 7:01 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'm torn
between a Yankee face plant and a Boston collapse...
An Angels meltdown, of course, goes without saying.
by OaklandSi on Aug 22, 2007 3:21 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
My vote is for the Yankee face plant...
We've seen the Boston collapse thing so many times-- it's getting old...
by LoveDemAs on Aug 22, 2007 3:51 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Pshaw.
That never gets old.
by TurnTwo on Aug 22, 2007 11:30 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I never get tired of Boston collapses
nor of Yankee faceplants...and certainly not of Angel meltdowns.
speaking of which, the Giants melted down at the end of the game against the Cubs, for the second straight night...not pretty
by OaklandSi on Aug 23, 2007 12:04 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I agree. But I never wish for the Angels to win.
Even against the Yankees. I just have to hold on to hope for our little gang of moppets. Go A's Go! 5 in a row!
by A'sfansince1970 on Aug 22, 2007 1:50 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Boy howdy
I got home from a camping trip (c.f. below) to catch the 8th and 9th. Loaiza? Who knew? In the 8th? Do we sing Amazing Grace now, or wait until next year?
Went camping, btw, to Lake Glimmerglass. The younger boy's first trip to the Hall Of Fame. In the souvenier shop, we found
1 A's cap (nike, one size fits all).
2
Oh, wait, there was no 2. There wasn't a single other piece of A's gear in the entire HOF Shop. Normally, I'd be thrilled, as we are NOT an interfaith family. But this was his first trip. Didn't he deserve some swag?
Oh, well, Eckersley Cachet's all around.
by Bronx A's Fan on Aug 22, 2007 1:52 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Best Case scenario
Loaiza finishes strong and Seattle makes the playoffs only to be undone by their starting pitching. They become convinced that he is the missing piece and the A's get Adam Jones in return. I know this is far fetched.
by NoeValley on Aug 22, 2007 1:56 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Even my normally cynical self.....
....had to smile at the thought of the A's being at .500.
by may7 on Aug 22, 2007 2:00 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
this just adds to the pain
knowing that this team was substantially better than the yankees and proved it in the spring is hard to take. i'm still mystified by what happened to our 3-4-5 spot in the start, what happened to our pen from top to bottom...
but what really bothers me is the sense that the a's may be mediocre until they move in to their new stadium. what's the incentive to invest now?
by notah8er on Aug 22, 2007 2:05 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
E-LO was awesome today....
i must say, i am more than a little surpirsed by his performance. I guess i expected the E-Lo of early 06 to show up......
by PSHABAZ on Aug 22, 2007 2:11 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Like it or Marco is 3rd best offensive player
on this team as currently fielded....behind Cust and Suzuki. Guys who are gone like Chavez has been terrible and Crosby worse and Kendall worse than worse in run production. Marco is not a utility player as is oft cited---he has been full time for most of the past four years and has been a playoff starter. He will actually start fewer games this year than any of the past four years. Compare his stats to Miguel Cario--the Yankees utility player- you will see Marco is a starter--not a star--but a dependable starter.
Now that Moore has joined the glass shortstop club Marco will get to pad his stats for next years contract. Marco has played over 500 games without going on the DL --191 of them at SS. He will get his money when he becomes a free agent.
by Aparicio11 on Aug 22, 2007 2:15 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
I have a feeling
that Scutaro will be a super sub on a very rich AL team next year.
by The Pilots Dared Me To Die on Aug 22, 2007 2:33 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
No he's not ...
Swisher, Stewart and Ellis are all better ...
Being part-time is not what makes scoot a "utility player", not having a single, established position does. Chone Figgins is another example of a utility player that plays everyday.
by devo on Aug 22, 2007 2:37 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Agree 100%. BTW Miguel Cairo was DFA'd
so he is not a good comparison to the greatness of Scutaro. Scoot is indeed the master of nothing but a suitable replacement player when needed at a particular position.
He will not be a hot commodity in the off-season.
by ohtobe21likehuston on Aug 22, 2007 2:50 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Loaiza's Workload
Fantastic job by Loaiza today. Who expected such a great performance out of the gate?
Considering his small workload this year, my guess is that E-Lo will have a very solid 2008 -- or at least the start of it. Remember how he used to alternate one bad year with one good year? That may have been related to innings pitched.
Best case scenario: Loaiza has an exceptional first half next year, forcing the Dodgers to overpay for him ... so much that the A's are STILL able to make the playoffs!
by Eck on Aug 22, 2007 2:19 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
I agree--a fresh-armed,
last guaranteed year of contract, down year/up year Loaiza is poised to have an excellent 2008 season. I've already got him down for 14-10, 3.90.
Excellent writeup, baseballgirl, except that you forgot to mention one thing: The A's are at .500!!!!!!!!!!!
by Nico on Aug 22, 2007 2:44 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I sure didn't expect it
I was sure this was going to be an L. But Loaiza really had it together. It does make it a little crowded in the "starting pitching" dept., but as they say, that's a problem we don't mind having. When Harden comes back it'll get even more crowded.
I wonder if they'll go to a six man rotation the rest of the way.
by Brian in 317 on Aug 23, 2007 6:24 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Oh, and regarding Reed Johnson,
remember all the speculation on AN about the brown spot on Kenny Rogers' backside a couple years ago? Just sayin'...
by Nico on Aug 22, 2007 2:46 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
accentuate the positives
amazing how the team is performing now that the 3 drains - Crosby, Kendall, and Kotsay - are not playing. It's as much removing the downside as performance on the upside.
by ojoe on Aug 22, 2007 4:02 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Not only are the A's at .500
but we're in fourth place for the wild card!
by Englishmajor on Aug 22, 2007 4:20 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
(buys jet saver ticket for playoffs)
by ak_A on Aug 22, 2007 5:03 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Good stuff today
Now these two losses to KC really chap me because we could be on a major roll right now. Let's go crush the Rays.
by sprtsnwyn on Aug 22, 2007 4:22 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
What is it about on-paper hopelessness
that brings out the best in this team? Through April and May many of us were astounded that the A's could be winning at a .500 clip with the lineup of Who Dats they were tossing out there. The Langerputnamelling era, if you will. Then they got healthier, and began the summer fade.
Now, with the Hannurphukivanon era in full flower, suddenly the A's are winning miore, and looking better in the process. Is this just about losing the dead lineup spots that were Chavvy and Kendall? Or is there something about anonymity which suits these fellas in green and gold?
by FreeSeatUpgrade on Aug 22, 2007 4:22 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
You forgot a dead lineup spot....
I think the team right now (and the losing July team) are basically .500 clubs and sometimes the wins will come in streaks and sometimes the losses will. Also the offense is less healthy right now, but the bullpen is more healthy and that's probably a net plus.
by mikeA on Aug 22, 2007 4:27 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Or the offensive drains are gone
See above: We are missing Crosby, Kendall and Kotsay.
Coincidence?
by baseballgirl on Aug 22, 2007 4:30 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
The thing on Reed Johnson's chin is a...
Tribble.
Similar to the thing on Reed Tribble's johnson.
by McFood on Aug 22, 2007 4:39 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
footnote: TMBG
Philip Johnson's glasses/Philip Glass's johnson
by monkeyball on Aug 22, 2007 4:45 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I wish we were in the NL because we would
be 4 games out of the WC right now. Still having fun watching these guys perform at a high level. Let's sweep LAA and SEA for the rest of the year.
by ohtobe21likehuston on Aug 22, 2007 6:37 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
ahh, yes, got WGN tv on in the background
and hear the "barrieeeee bonds" shreak from rene.
by ak_A on Aug 22, 2007 7:26 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
When did Zito get facial hair?
He's pitching to Kendall as I type
by kapers on Aug 22, 2007 7:44 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I wish
the sportsline images weren't so pixilated - not sure why that is, because the gallery from today's game is worth a look - they've offered up a nice selection of photos
I particulary liked this one:
by SwisherThresher on Aug 22, 2007 8:13 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
is that?
estaban loaiza's shoe? is that a mexican flag with an E-LO below the flag? Cool.
by inbillywetrust on Aug 22, 2007 8:17 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
here's the photo caption
Aug 22, 2007; Toronto, ON, Canada; Rare stirrups and Mexican flag as worn by Oakland Athletics starting pitcher (25) Esteban Loaiza during their game against the Toronto Blue Jays at the Rogers Centre in Toronto, ON. The Athletics beat the Blue Jays 4-1. Mandatory Credit: Tom Szczerbowski-US PRESSWIRE
and yes, it says 'E-Lo'
:)
by SwisherThresher on Aug 22, 2007 8:23 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Oh it's ELo!
I thought it was Paul Shoey.
by Nico on Aug 22, 2007 8:26 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
actually it's seems to be fetish with feet.
by ak_A on Aug 22, 2007 9:28 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Mine is with paws
by Nico on Aug 22, 2007 11:00 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
is....is.......is that you paw? josie and me
gots the gold.
by ak_A on Aug 23, 2007 7:09 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Now we'll be saying
Chavy isn't as Mexican as E-lo's kicks
by oaklandSMASH on Aug 23, 2007 2:20 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
A's are at .500!
A's are at .500!
I hope they can finish the season above .500.
Go Oakland!
by Seb on Aug 22, 2007 8:41 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
definitely
glass half full
It's stay above sinking
by oaklandSMASH on Aug 23, 2007 2:13 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I was there!
It was an amazingly fun game. Even if some little kid whacked me as I yelled at Jack Cust's ball as it was flying towards the bullpen! Now, if only I knew how to upload pictures to share?
by NVAngela on Aug 24, 2007 8:58 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
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