Post Trade Deadline Ramblings

by baseb3383 on Aug 2, 2007 11:16 AM PDT

After the trade deadline had passed, I wound up over here, to see if any of our players had been traded. I knew that Dan Johnson, Joe Kennedy, Shannon Stewart, Mark Kotsay, and even Mike Piazza would receive little print on ESPN or another news source. Why? Because I'm going to state the obvious here: Most of our players just do not have value.

Think about it this way; I know a lot of you are upset that nobody on our team was traded, but remember, we get draft picks for free agents leaving our team. Most will probably qualify for type B status, so any trade we make we have to take into consideration the quality of young talent we'd get in return. Finally, our players just don't have much value. Instead of a liquidation sale at a fine furniture store, I'd say that a garage sale at your grandma's house is a better analogy. Let's digest the trade value of some of our players:

Shannon Stewart - Having a great year, but let's be honest, he has one position: LF. How many left fielders with noodle arms are truly sought after in baseball? Not many. He can hit for average and gets on base at a decent clip, but he doesn't have much power and his speed is no longer as significant as it has been in the past stealing bases. I can't imagine most teams giving up a young prospect for this outfielder in his 30s.

Joe Kennedy - We all hate him. That says it all. What good is a lefty out of the bullpen if he can't even preserve a lead? He started off hot this year, but now, he's as cold as the Arctic Ocean. At this point, we're best off keeping him and taking our chances with getting some compensation in the draft, because no one will fork over young (or old for that matter) talent.

Mark Kotsay - Huge contract. Huge injury. Young talent for this declining outfielder? I don't think so. He still plays great defense, but he's showed us nothing from an offensive point of view this year. We're best off waiting out his underperformance.

Dan Johnson - After hitting well over .300 to begin the year, he's now at about .240. Much like Broadway Joe, he's ice cold. Also, take into account how many teams in contention that have first basemen that are in fact worse than Dan Johnson. The Yankees? Not anymore. Plus, why would a team like the Braves go after a future benchwarmer like Johnson when Teixeira is on the market? Everybody in baseball also knows that Daric Barton will be playing first base for us, so Dan Johnson's trade value lowers even further when you consider that we are forced to get rid of him.

Mike Piazza - Iron Mike. Or not so Iron Mike. We rehabbed him at catcher, which people said was a dumb decision, but Cust was hitting with an OPS of over 1.000. You can't sit a guy that hot. You also can't justify sitting a Hall of Fame hitter either. Cust in the outfield? Yikes. Anywho, Mike doesn't play catcher anymore, and won't in the future. So his value is restricted to AL teams as a DH. How many teams in contention are struggling at that spot? Not to mention Mike is getting paid a cool $8 million this year. A waiver deal was the only thing that made sense to Beane and other GMs, simply because he didn't play enough prior to the deadline to showcase his hitting skills. Even then, there's maybe one team in contention that would trade for him: the Angels.

So, in retrospect, it's not that standing pat was good, but it was the ONLY option for Beane and Co. Even Beane can't turn snake oil into gold.

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joe kennedy

was very good out of the bullpen last year, I like him.

Lets go Oakland! Check out my blog:http://sportsrus33.blogspot.com/

by bballfanr33 on Aug 2, 2007 11:14 AM PDT reply actions

That's just it

JK has been fairly consistent - throughout his career - in terms of pitch count. After 40 or so pitches, he gets tired (or something) and tanks. This year doesn't reflect that, but his stats over the years point to a trend. Why did he do so well last year? He didn't start!

I'm still baffled by Beane's choice to start him. Were Gaudin's excessive walks really that bad compared to the obvious talent he's always had?

by Mark H on Aug 2, 2007 5:15 PM PDT up reply actions

What has been even MORE consistent

is Kennedy's ability to get left-handed hitters out and his inability to get right-handed hitters out--something you can manage a lot out of the pen and almost nil out of the rotation.

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Aug 2, 2007 6:04 PM PDT up reply actions

my guess

Billy built this team to win this year. and when it didnt work out with all the injuries, he's left with a bunch of spare parts that didnt fit anywhere. i think the Bradley deal was the first indicator that the front office was looking ahead next year rather than this year.

by oak1 on Aug 2, 2007 11:57 AM PDT reply actions

I agree

by OaklandSi on Aug 2, 2007 12:00 PM PDT up reply actions

There were chances to "sell high"

that the A's declined. Joe Kennedy had a sub-3.00 ERA as a starter two months into the season, and Santiago Casilla had a sub-1.00 ERA a couple weeks before the trading deadline with several contending teams in dire need of bullpen help.

It's not that there were no opportunities, it's more that the A's didn't "sell high" this year. They sold low, lower, and lowest with Bradley and pretty much with Kendall, while the others (including Blanton and Gaudin, along with Kennedy and Casilla) regressed to their mean and kept dropping in value.

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Aug 2, 2007 12:31 PM PDT reply actions

JoKe's first two months.

I've really never understood Beane's love affaire with JoKe. How you could even consider giving JoKe 5th rotation spot ahead of Gaudin at the beginning of the year just blows my mind.

Beane is a smart man, and the only reason the A's were even able to pretend they were contenders this year is that Beane was able to use the minors, trades, and position switching to find us a .850 ops outfielder (Buck), a starter that was in the top 5 in ERA for the first half of the year (Gaudin), a DH who lead the team in home runs with only half the at bats (Cust), and an elite set-up man (Casillo). But there have been times this year then any other year I can remember, where he has his head so far up his ass about playing certain obviously bad players that he can't see just how bad they really are in the outside world.

by Threepwood XX on Aug 2, 2007 1:09 PM PDT up reply actions

True dat.

JoKe was the consummate "sell high" opportunity, a guy whose stats had way exceeded his performance, which had way exceeded his predictable future performance. But as a lefty starter with a great ERA sustained for two months, Kennedy might actually have fetched something at the end of May. Big lost opportunity, IMO.

At least Casilla could help us in the future, though I think trading him 2 weeks ago would have been smart--especially once Brown started showing he might be an adequate replacement--given how many contenders really needed help in the bullpen. Put it this way: Proctor netted NYY Betemit, who I'd rather have than Crosby. What could Casilla have gotten us?

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Aug 2, 2007 1:24 PM PDT up reply actions

The Yankees don't usually

make moves at the deadline. They make them later. You still may get your moment of joy seeing our best young talent traded to the evil empire. Be patient.

by IM4Oakgal on Aug 2, 2007 1:43 PM PDT up reply actions

Santiago Casilla our best young talent?

By next April, he may be our 4th best young reliever.

Here's what I'm thinking (disclaimer: crack-induced psychosis involved)...Harden and Casilla, and (if NYY wants) Johnson or Kotsay, for Cano. We then stick Cano in CF and say "learn this over the next 2 months..."

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Aug 2, 2007 4:53 PM PDT up reply actions

4th best reliever?

Duke may never come back...Brown may or not be as good as casilla...Embree yeah maybe...and Street has been iffy... and we have no way of knowing if his ulner nerve is going to be chronic trouble or not. I think a so far a totally healthy young man who throws like Casilla is someone we had better put a very high price on. Trade Embree before him. That's my opinion.

by IM4Oakgal on Aug 3, 2007 2:14 PM PDT up reply actions

I guess I'm assuming Duke will be back

I don't really think there's much of a market for Embree--if there had been, the A's probably would have pulled the trigger because of Embree's age and the fact that this season is lost and Duke/Street are supposed to be back for 2008. I have no idea how good Brown will be, but same goes for Casilla--that's why I said "may"--I could see Casilla winding up anywhere from our best to our 4th best.

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Aug 3, 2007 2:21 PM PDT up reply actions

I usually think that you are

really good and very objective when evaluating player personnel. But I think you are off on Casilla. He's been very consistent this year...and I am quite puzzled that you aren't more concerned about whether Duke will make it back. That was a major injury.
As for Embree, I still think he may be traded away. He's good, he's available and teams like the Yankees do need some bullpen help. Anyhoo, that's why I want to keep Casilla.

by IM4Oakgal on Aug 3, 2007 2:42 PM PDT up reply actions

I like Casilla, I really do--

It's just that you have to trade value to get value, short relievers were in demand recently, and Casilla was pitching over his head--not because he isn't good but because no one's as good as he was pitching.

Maybe I'm being naive about Duke. But if he is back in 2008 and Street is basically healthy, I think we can have a very good bullpen even without Casilla. So if Casilla can net us that elusive right-handed hitter, or the young pitcher that allows us to deal Blanton, I'd be ok with trading him. I think he's one of the few real trade chips we have/had where losing him doesn't just create another big hole elsewhere (e.g., 3B, 2B).

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Aug 3, 2007 3:43 PM PDT up reply actions

I understand your POV

but trading Casilla is too bitter of a pill for me to swallow. I still hope that they don't do it.

by IM4Oakgal on Aug 3, 2007 4:55 PM PDT up reply actions

Did the hanging slider to Vlad

temper your love any? Bleah.

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Aug 3, 2007 9:52 PM PDT up reply actions

Yeah it tempered my love...

for GEREN.

by IM4Oakgal on Aug 3, 2007 10:17 PM PDT up reply actions

That's one thing we will ALWAYS agree on!

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Aug 3, 2007 10:37 PM PDT up reply actions

Pick for JoKe

We wont get any picks for Kennedy. Even if he did qualify as a type B free agent (a big stretch), the A's would have to offer JoKe arbitration to get the picks.

With Joke making 2.8M this year, JoKe could very well be offered north or 3M via arbitration; he would be stupid not to take the 3M because there is no way he will get that kind of money on the free agent market. The A's wont risk that he will accept and let him walk.

The A's best shot at getting something for him is for JoKe to clear waivers and get traded for an undervalued Jack Cust/Chad Gaudin type prospect.

by Threepwood XX on Aug 2, 2007 12:57 PM PDT reply actions

JoKe and arby

If Kennedy pitches even halfway decent out of the pen someon will offer him a multi-year deal in the off-season.

He's 28 years old and left handed. Someone will bite.

Yep. Warm and fuzzy... that's me.

by grover on Aug 2, 2007 5:17 PM PDT up reply actions

Exactly

Pitchers will almost always go for the security of a multiyear deal despite getting slightly less per year. There's always a market for an average pitcher, which Kennedy has proved to be over his career.

by Danny on Aug 2, 2007 6:56 PM PDT up reply actions

I wouldn't give Kennedy "average" status,

actually. A typical year for him has been to have a bad or horrendous ERA. 6.13? 7.04? I didn't know they even MADE ERAs that high!

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Aug 2, 2007 10:42 PM PDT up reply actions

Typical

A typical year for him is his worst season and his worst half season? How'd his career ERA get to 4.74 if those are typical?

He has a career ERA+ of 97, mostly as a starting pitcher. The average starting pitcher has an ERA+ of 95 or 96.

by Danny on Aug 3, 2007 1:34 AM PDT up reply actions

"How'd his career ERA get to 4.74

if those are typical?" He had one excellent year in which he threw a lot of innings. And 4.74 sucks. As does Joe Kennedy, author of such.

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Aug 3, 2007 8:35 AM PDT up reply actions

Jeez

Do you know what ERA+ is? And what's with you always trying to discount a player's best performance while emphasizing his worst?

by Danny on Aug 3, 2007 10:24 AM PDT up reply actions

"Jeez. Do you know what ERA+ is?"

No, but my chihuahua does. (He knows more about baseball than I do.) I'm not discounting Kennedy's best year. But when your other ERAs, as a starter, are 4.44, 4.53, 6.13, and 7.04, and your career ERA even WITH the good season is 4.79, the 3.66 looks like the exception--the fluke year--not the norm.

All I'm suggesting is something not very ground-breaking: Joe Kennedy is not a good starting pitcher.

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Aug 3, 2007 11:20 AM PDT up reply actions

Yeah

So you're not discounting his best year, you're just calling it a fluke and mostly ignoring it?

No one is arguing Kennedy is a good starting pitcher, but there's a world of difference between not being good and sucking. Some of us all call it average.

His career ERA is 4.79. An average pitcher pitching in the parks he pitched in would have an ERA of 4.60. That makes him about 3% worse than the average pitcher. Starting pitchers have worse ERAs than relief pitchers (for many reasons), and are usually 4%-5% worse than average as a group. Kennedy has pitched most of his innings as a starting pitcher, which means his ERA is just about average.

Performance that doesn't fit neatly into your perception of a player should not be ignored, it actually happened and is part of the player's performance history.

by Danny on Aug 3, 2007 12:48 PM PDT up reply actions

When a player has five full seasons,

and four of them are bad, and one of them is good, yes I call the good one the fluke. Wake me up when Kennedy has another full season starting with an ERA under 4.50 and we'll talk. <plans a long slumber>

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Aug 3, 2007 2:10 PM PDT up reply actions

Not getting it

Call his best season whatever you want to, but there's no reason to ignore it.

And he hasn't had 4 bad seasons.

In 2001, he made 20 starts with an ERA+ of 101. That's above average for a starting pitcher.

In 2002, he made 30 starts with an ERA+ of 99. Again, that's better than the average starting pitcher.

He was terrible in 2003, great in 2004, and terrible again in the first half 2005. He was back to average for the second half of 2005, very good in relief in 2006, and back to average in 2007.

Repeating his ERA over and over doesn't add much if you don't understand the significance of it.

by Danny on Aug 3, 2007 2:20 PM PDT up reply actions

I'm done interacting with you--

NOT because I don't have a reply but because IMO you are not sufficiently respectful in your comments for me to want to engage you in discussion. Go argue the point with someone who is willing to endure the personality you present; it's not me.

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Aug 3, 2007 2:23 PM PDT up reply actions

That's fine

I hope someone else can get through to you.

You're a very good writer, but I think--as a front page author--AN would be even better if you were a bit more willing to learn.

by Danny on Aug 3, 2007 2:39 PM PDT up reply actions

I learn from people on here all the time

But not when they're talking to me the way you do; when I start seeing things like "you just don't get it" and "repeating platitudes," then I just tune out and move on. I think most people are that way. "You catch more flies with honey..." Hey, maybe Cust should try honey!

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Aug 3, 2007 3:58 PM PDT up reply actions