Chavez and Crosby worst hitters in AL

by Aparicio11 on Jul 20, 2007 9:24 AM PDT

According to the Hardball Times Chavez and Crosby are the worst hitters in the AL based on win percentage added---A-Rod is #1. More disturbing --as if a team built areound the two "worst Hitters" isn't disturbing enough is there are alot of other A's on the last page---at least Kendall isn't one of them now. There are zero A's on page one of the 4 a page listing. Hard to argue with the stats--I would take anyone on page 1. The top A's hitter is Swisher--second is DJ --hence the trade rumor. Most A's are negative numbers in this ranking.

Here are the links:
http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/ar...
http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.asp...

It just verifies statistically what we see every game--the A's need a real bat and haven't had them since Giambi and Tejada. Chavez's numbers were good then due to the protection of hitting around real hitters.

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*A's top hitter by WPA is Cust

but they didn't put him on the list for some reason.

Chavez has indeed been spectacularly unclutch this year. Middling clutchness before that.

by mikeA on Jul 20, 2007 9:36 AM PDT reply actions

I don't like WPA as a stat at all

It's little better than RBI-- it's basically leverage-adjusted RBI (because run-scoring events dwarf all other events in importance in close games). If you get lucky and hit well in "clutch" situations, you get huge boosts. And it really is luck. You know who's 2nd and 3rd in "least clutch" hitters (after Eric Chavez, obviously) by that metric? Curtis Granderson and David Ortiz (yes, the proclaimed "most clutch hitter in Red Sox history" is one of the worst in baseball this season). I mean, you'd be stone-cold nuts to NOT want those guys on your team.

Basically, it's a stat that can tell you who won baseball games. That's pointless, though. We already know who won. The utility of stats is in predicting whether guys will win games going forward, and for that there are a LOT of better stats than WPA.

One bright spot though-- #1 WPA event all season? Marco Scutaro's home run off of Mariano Rivera. (WPA of something like .90!)

by PaulThomas on Jul 20, 2007 9:39 AM PDT reply actions

Excellent Link, Fabulous Site

Wow ... here I've been telling my son for years that Chavvy is the worst clutch hitter I've ever seen, but I didn't know there was actually an ojective system that concludes that ... indeed, Chavvy is the worst clutch hitter in all of baseball - by a fairly wide margin!

I don't begin to understand the system, but when it concludes that the hitters who help their teams win the most are ARod, Ordonez, Bonds and Guerrero ... you can quibble with the inputs, but how crazy a system can this be?

by solotar on Jul 20, 2007 10:33 AM PDT reply actions

yes, because any closed system ...

... that confirms our gut feelings must be right!

I'm not throwing in the towel, but I'm using it to wipe the sweat off my face and enjoy the rest of the season. ~ oaklandSMASH @('.')@

by monkeyball on Jul 20, 2007 10:41 AM PDT up reply actions

Confirmation bias.

Chavez has been bad this year, but was normal in other years, and of course any serious analyst will tell you that measuring clutch hitting skill (as opposed to performance) needs some serious regression. I'm not opposed to pointing out the fact that Chavvy has been pretty bad in high leverage situation, but it's sad that pretty much all of AN will misinterpret what it means.

Stat Wonk Futurist

by salb918 on Jul 20, 2007 11:09 AM PDT up reply actions

REPORT: Chavvy's fulcrums fail at altitude!

Forget it Stomper...it's Oaklandtown.

by FreeSeatUpgrade on Jul 20, 2007 11:30 AM PDT up reply actions

Forget clutch

I just wanna see Chavvy hit.

In any situation

RagingHarden: Yeah if you get 20 starts out of me I'll be shocked. Like, I'll wreck my drawers.

by walk off bunt on Jul 20, 2007 12:16 PM PDT up reply actions

I'm waiting for crutch.

A spell on the DL might actually help him learn how to swing a bat again.

"Oh, I use THIS end?"

The Kendall Shift: 6 infielders and 2 catchers.

by Ozzz on Jul 20, 2007 4:18 PM PDT up reply actions

Chavvy isn't the worst clutch hitter in baseball

He's the worst clutch hitter this season. NOT the same thing at all. Over his career he's actually been average. This season (IIRC) he's something like 0-for-9 with the bases loaded.

Most A's hitters are going to rank as pretty average on this scale in the long run. To the extent that there are any factors that predict "clutchiness", they're players who a. walk a lot, and b. don't strike out very much. Generally your Wade Boggs, Mark Grace types. This makes sense-- if you can control the at-bat and hit "your" pitch, you're going to have success at situational hitting.

Since A's hitters tend to both walk AND strike out a lot, they're going to be near the middle of the pack.

But in the short and even medium run, this effect is totally swamped by luck. I mean, Kevin Youkilis is probably the #1 guy on my list if I want somebody who walks a lot and doesn't strike out (and is a good hitter in general). Yet he ranks close to the bottom in clutch this season. Even over the course of a career, the effect doesn't necessarily show through. People had to comb through hundreds of hitters before isolating the effect.

by PaulThomas on Jul 20, 2007 11:20 AM PDT reply actions

If, in 2002, you'd been offered Aramis Ramirez...

...for Eric Chavez, straight up, would you have taken it?

Not many would have, because Ramirez sucked ass.

But now Aramis Ramirez kicks Chavez's ass up and down, AND he's paid less, AND he's younger.

Incidentally, while Ramirez's numbers have got better every year, Chavez's have got worse. He went from hitting 34 dingers in 2002 to 29, 29, 27, 22, and now 15.

Average? .282 in 2003, and has dropped every year since.

He's an overpaid league average hitter with an above average glove. In other words, he's Adrian Beltre.

And I HATE Adrian Beltre.

The Kendall Shift: 6 infielders and 2 catchers.

by Ozzz on Jul 20, 2007 4:28 PM PDT reply actions

I think of him as a better-fielding Brandon Inge

On the other hand, Brandon Inge was the starting 3B for a pennant-winning team. So that's not entirely a bad thing.

by PaulThomas on Jul 20, 2007 4:48 PM PDT up reply actions

Of course...

That pennant winning team had Ordonez in right, Granderson in center, and Guillen at shortstop.

It's okay for Brandon Inge to hit like Brandon Inge on the Tigers but it's not okay for Eric Chavez to hit like Brandon Inge on the A's.

"We were s--, pathetic," Guillen growled early in spring training. "We hit too many home runs."

by lenscrafters on Jul 20, 2007 5:48 PM PDT up reply actions

Inge is hitting

better than Chavy this year. And last year Ordonez didn't do a whole lot for the Tigers. Their pitching got them to the WS, not necessarily their hitting.

by IndianaAsfan on Jul 22, 2007 7:28 AM PDT up reply actions

Ooops...

just did what I should have done before replying - looked at the stats. Chavez OPS+ is 102, while Inge's OPS+ is 97.
I do think, on the whole, Inge is an undervalued third baseman, and unfortunately, if his injuries don't improve, Chavez may be quickly moving in the overvalued department.

by IndianaAsfan on Jul 22, 2007 7:34 AM PDT up reply actions

Then you haven't

watched Inge field much. Inge is an above average defensive third baseman. He's not at Crede's or Chavy's level yet, but he's not that far off. He made two plays last night that I'm not sure Chavy would have made this year.

by IndianaAsfan on Jul 22, 2007 7:25 AM PDT up reply actions

Aramis Ramirez

could be the worst fielding third basemen in baseball.

by IndianaAsfan on Jul 22, 2007 7:35 AM PDT up reply actions

Actually,Beltre's been a better hitter now

for 2 straight years.

2006:
Chavez:106 OPS+
Beltre:108 OPS+

2007:
Chavez:103 OPS+
Beltre:117 OPS+

And pick your fielding metric, but he's also been on par or better than Chavez with the glove too...

M's fan. Felix is ours and you can't have him.

by Goose on Jul 21, 2007 2:12 AM PDT up reply actions

At least Crosby has a friend to hang with

at the bottom of the list

Signatures? We don't need no stinking signatures.

by jubjub on Jul 20, 2007 5:34 PM PDT reply actions

WPA = Win Probability Added

not "percentage".

by Qwerty75 on Jul 20, 2007 10:37 PM PDT reply actions

I thought it was

"We're Pathetic Athletics."

So it goes.

by jeepers on Jul 21, 2007 10:26 AM PDT up reply actions

Not just pathetic athletes

"...but we're also always open to hearing about other sandwiches if it can make our lunch better." -- Nico, channeling Billy Beane

by iglew on Jul 22, 2007 11:20 AM PDT up reply actions

He never learned how to hit...

That is Chavy's problem. Chavez has always relied on his natural talent when it comes to hitting. See ball, hit ball. Which is an incredible talent, but when you are hurting here and there, sometime all your cylinders cannot fire when they need to. I don't think it would hurt if he knew the pitcher would throw a slider on a 3-2 count. Which brings me back to the hitting coaches, Hudgens, Bosely, Perry, Van Burkelo... Can someone get through to him and say use your brain as well as talent!! Or is it too late and he just doesn't want to learn or improve...

by equation9 on Jul 22, 2007 11:54 AM PDT reply actions

His real problem

He's like Cal Ripken; he tinkers with his swing and his stance too much. Guys that do that will only hit .250 no matter how gifted they are.

Prince: This bores me. Is anyone up for a game of basketball?

by baseb3383 on Jul 22, 2007 12:46 PM PDT up reply actions

Rod Carew

would disagree with you.

by IndianaAsfan on Jul 22, 2007 1:31 PM PDT up reply actions

So would Cal Ripken

and his .276 career batting average. There was that whole Hall of Fame thing too.

I'd like to eat my lunch, but Billy just kicked me out of my office.

by BlameChannel53 on Jul 22, 2007 5:19 PM PDT up reply actions

Cal Ripken isn't in the Hall of Fame

for his hitting. He was an above average hitter, but he does have that consecutive games record. Regardless, I stand corrected for my .250 average comment. I seem to remember his .250 average years with 20 something HRs too well.

Prince: This bores me. Is anyone up for a game of basketball?

by baseb3383 on Jul 22, 2007 10:04 PM PDT up reply actions