Why all the trade Dan Johnson talk?
Why is it that there seems to be a consensus here that the A's should trade Dan Johnson?
Unless the A's can get a decent prospect back, I don't understand the rush to trade Johnson. He currently sports an .812 OPS, which doesn't make him Pujols, but it doesn't make him Neifi Perez either. Since we don't know how Cust will turn out (he has been in the minors for a decade for a reason...), why would we essentially dump a productive player to free up a spot for a minor leaguer who if he wasn't in the A's depleted farm system would be an afterthought (how many 1B prospects do you see with no power....)
To frame this argument, I present a comparison with a player we all agree should not be traded - Nick Swisher. Nothing against Swisher, I just wanted to show how close their performances this year have been.
A comparison with Nick Swisher:
Johnson Swisher
Age 27 years 26 years
BA .257 .256
OBP .366 .391
SLG .446 .435
AB/HR 24.9 27.4
VORP 10.9 17.9
A comment about the VORP difference - it comes from two things: 1) Swisher is compared to OF while Johnson is compared to 1B - if both were 1B, Swisher's number would come down considerably; 2) Swisher has a few extra BB's - 10 to be exact on a PA-adjusted basis.
So, the differences between Swisher and Johnson are essentially one year in age difference, 10 walks, and more defensive flexibility with Swisher. Swisher is the better player, but not by a huge gap and certainly not as the fan attitudes would have you believe. Yes, Swisher has been pretty good for a few years now, but if you take out Johnson's 2006, they have been very comparable players in terms of OPS.
Based on the above, I don't really understand the almost without argument consensus that has formed on AN that Dan Johnson should be traded. I don't even neccessarily disagree with trading him, I just don't get why it is seen as inevitable. At a relatively cheap price, he seems like an ideal insurance policy against a Cust regression/Barton development delay/Swisher injury. Since this team isn't exploding with offense, it seems odd to trade away one of the only players with an OPS above .800 (only 3 players higher).
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Great Post
Kotsay has tarnished his run with the A's due to his embarrassing performance this year.
While we probably should move DJ
It's not because Barton should play now, or because DJ is a bad hitter. We should move DJ now because his value will not get higher as his price increases, while in the long term he is not the answer to 1B.
Still, it makes no sense to trade him for a guy like Proctor. I'd like to see a prospect with upside in return rather than another ML roster filler.
Here's my list of guys who need to be traded/replaced, in a very particular order:
Kotsay
Piazza
Crosby
Kielty
Stewart
Agree, WTF would we want/need
Scott Proctor?
by SwisherSweet33 on Jul 17, 2007 8:26 AM PDT up reply actions
on Kotsay
I know the team's not looking so good, and there's a lot going on that one could find issues with. However, I feel like bagging on Mark Kotsay after he just had back surgery is a bit of a bummer. Let's give the guy a chance to regain his strength, etc. before we bag on him.
If I were Kotsay, I'd be a bit bummed at the rampant dissing after he had the surgery, and then worked so hard to come back and try to be a part of the team. This is a team, and the reasons we're not doing so well aren't fairly placed on individuals.
If he's not 100%
he should have rehabbed longer in AAA. He might be worth it if he were playing good defense, but, by my observation, he's not getting back on balls well. It sure seems like his mobility and flexibility is still hindered. Without peak defensive abilities, Kotsay needs to be a part time player at this point–2 or 3 starts a week until he forces otherwise. The lineup can't bear the void he creates while trying to absorb Crosby's everyday sucktitude simultaneously.
If I were Macha, I'd be A BIT bummed that Kotsay
threw me under the bus after I had already been canned. Kotsay, is far from a class act. He just got his just deserts. What goes around comes around.
by SwisherSweet33 on Jul 17, 2007 8:27 AM PDT up reply actions
Please
The guy is one of the highest paid players on the team(and unfortunately will be on the books next year) and is no better than your average triple A centerfielder. His numbers are shockingly bad and his D has slipped as well.
I can't wait until he is gone.
I think it was supposed to be a reply to
catfish hunter's post about Kotsay.
Correct answer. ;)
Why DJ?
We know the A's have 1B alternatives should they trade DJ with Swish or Barton at 1B. Trading DJ could provide improvement now or in the future with the player they get at another position.
I see a trade, not as an indictment of DJs performance, but as a way to get a player who will be part of the longer term future. I think its becoming clear that this is not the A's year so lets start building a lineup with players who could be part of their next playoff run. Sure there is risk that the player won't pan out but what part of life doesn't have some risk.
DJ is going to be 28 in a few weeks, entering the prime of his career, very reasonably priced and puts up decent off/def stats. That should attract interest from BBs counterparts.
If the A's feel Barton is ready to be their 1B of the future why not give him a chance now? Yea it starts his arby clock and maybe he could use more seasoning at AAA but thats what management is paid the big bucks to figure out.
how much is DJ anyway?
With Milton and Kendall officially gone, the A's unloaded two of their heavier contracts; I thought we had some control over Johnson. Isn't he cheap/affordable?
I like your post a lot, and agree that he is one of our more valuable trade chips, and I would like to see Swisher at 1B more often. But it seems like the A's are paring down on payroll and will keep guys that they have who are affordable.
by popcornjames on Jul 17, 2007 11:59 AM PDT up reply actions
He's cheap ...
makes the league minimum.
We didn't actually save all that much money on Milt/Ken-Doll, as we're paying a portion of both of their salaries.
The idea of trading DJ would be to move talent from 1b/dh, which is likely well manned at present (Cust, Piazza, Swish) and in the future (Barton, Cust, Swish) to a position with more room to improve (it looks like the pitching staff is our focus).
You are correct sir
One of the more annoying things about AN is the bandwagon jumping. There is no real reason for AN's dislike of DJ based on the numbers or even the Barton worship. DJ was not that good last year because of an eye injury which delayed his development by a year. This off season the front office did something very rare for them and basically endorsed DJ and put their support behind him.
As for Barton he easily could wind up an AAAA player like people accuse DJ of being. He has a lack of pop which means his bat is slow. Slow bat in the majors can be easily exposed. I also worry about his makeup because of his really shitty defence. Come on, I played a very serviceable 1st and 3rd base once upon a time, I don't get how a pro athlete can be so bad at fielding. Barton played some 3rd in high school which can be argued is harder to play than in the minors. The use of aluminium bats at the high school level and the resultant screaming pulled metal bat line drives make third a living hell for high school and college third baseman.
I hope the A's keep DJ. I wish they would move Barton to third. I fear Chavez's forearm and shoulder injuries are chronic and will shorten his career. Reading about Barton’s antics at third at Sac, my first thought went to someone can only play that bad because they want to. Where there is a will there is a way. He's too athletic to be that bad. It seemed to me he had a fit at being moved and didn't put any effort in at all. I have voiced my concern before that Barton is just plain not ready. He has had only one good month at AAA and is 21. 21 is when most college players are drafted.
by Athletics Fan In London on Jul 17, 2007 8:13 AM PDT reply actions
Jason Giambi and Mark McGwire are two examples
of players who could not hack it at third but turned into decent ballplayers, playing first.
Also, a lack of homerun power does not necessarily mean a lack of bat speed -- and given that he has batted over .300 for his professional career (and is batting nearly .320 this year) and rarely strikes out while hitting a boat load of doubles (the guy has 40 XBHs and a very reasonable .160 IsoP this year), it almost certainly does not mean that in this case.
I disagree
Barton cheats the ball very well. If his bat speed were higher the way he hits and makes contact with the ball, more balls would be flying out the park. The PCL is a hitter’s league with many stadiums in the desert and at high altitude. It's not that hard to go long in the PCL. Though .320 maybe impressive in Oakland, in Sacramento and in the PCL it is okay a bit above average, but nothing really special. With time his power is going to come along. He's only 21 his man muscles are yet to develop. As I said before if he went to college and was drafted as a senior he would have just been drafted in this last draft. He is way ahead of his peer group and needs some time at AAA to mature.
by Athletics Fan In London on Jul 17, 2007 11:09 AM PDT up reply actions
Or maybe he's just a line drive hitter ...
who doesn't get the loft on his ball to get it over the fence.
And .318 isn't even remotely close to "okay a bit above average". It's actually 14th best in the league. The league average to this point in the season is .278, while the AL league average is .268, so, while it is a hitter's league, it's just silly to suggest that a .300+ batting average isn't very, very good.
He's got all of his skills down, he just needs to build some strength and, when it's appropriate, add a bit of loft to his swing. He's ready, though. He'll be a good player almost right away and will likely just get bored and stagnate if we leave him in Sacramento much longer.
Talking in terms of prospects
AAA and the minors are very different than MLB. I was talking about .318 being a bit above average for a true highly regarded prospect.PCL league average is not what I was talking about.Rankings in AAA are meaning less. Obviously the top prospects get called up sooner or latter so being 14th means very little. I don't think he has his skills down. A month and a half does not make a season. What needs to be seen is if the league adjusts to him (it has, he has cooled down a little bit) and see if he adjusts and how he responds. Also on a Rivercats blog it has been reported that the Rivercats manager has stated that Barton is there to work on his power swing. His power swing still needs some working on. He can't work on adding "loft" to his swing at Oakland. ML pitching will kill him. I don't think we see him till September call up's. DJ is not going to NY for Proctor. NY has to offer up better than that.
by Athletics Fan In London on Jul 17, 2007 12:26 PM PDT up reply actions
so you're switching sides?
Barton now has the bat speed to hit for power, he just needs to work on adding loft?
Also, a lot of the best players in AAA are not good prospects. 5 out of the top 9 in OPS, for example, are 27 or older.
I want him to add loft little by little over the next five years, as he builds strength, little by little. Trying to force players to be something they aren't or that they aren't ready to be is a great way to ruin a prospect.
Don't pull this internet word twisting wth me
Where did I even allude to that being my position? I was using your words "loft". It was the Rivercats manager who has been reported as saying Barton is there to work on his power, not me. I wish I could manage the Rivercats but the commute from London to Sacramento is awful ;-) . Many more prospects have been ruined by being rushed to the majors, than trying to change there swing in AAA. His bat speed will come around but only with time. Barton is a talented hitter that needs to further develop. He is not ready to be promoted. Most 21 year olds prospects are not.
by Athletics Fan In London on Jul 17, 2007 1:05 PM PDT up reply actions
sorry ...
I'm just not used to people offering evidence contrary to their position ... but, hey, it's cool, do your thing.
Barton is very likely ready. Power may or may not develop over time, but asking him to change his approach at this point in his development is a bad idea. The A's are in no danger of rushing him. He's already spent more time in AAA than, say, Nick Swisher.
speaking of third basemen...
I remember when we sent Mark Teahen to the Royals in a three way trade to get Dotel. Now Dotel is pitching for...the Royals.
Teahen is mainly in the outfield now and he wasn't a great third baseman, but he was adequate at the position and he's really developed into a pretty good hitter with a little bit of power. I wonder if, without Crosby clogging up the system, he could have been converted to a SS and we'd have some fairly decent talent there now - or have a better backup to Chavez than Scutaro.
by coffee roaster on Jul 17, 2007 10:03 AM PDT up reply actions
If Teahen could play shortstop
then he would be doing so. The Royals had even a bigger need there than the A's: Angel Berroa was basically Crosby without the defense or power. Now they have Tony Pena Jr. who is good defensively, but just as awful a hitter.
this is all true
But I think it's more likely that the Royals weren't willing to have him spend another year in AAA to learn another position - they tend to bring their prospects up early (often too early).
Agree about Pena Jr. - he makes Crosby look like an offensive power.
by coffee roaster on Jul 17, 2007 10:52 AM PDT up reply actions
Or....Chavez to SS
Chavez, albeit a great defensive 3B, is a weak hitting one. Move Chavez to SS and Teahen could have played 3rd. Because it's pretty obvious that offensively Teahen >> Crosby.
by methodrampage on Jul 17, 2007 1:49 PM PDT up reply actions
That is my thought exactly
and maybe we should trade for Teahen. We're stuck with Chavez but we could package a deal for Teahen and put him at third.
DJ is a very sub-par 1st baseman. He's not the reason the A's offense sucks, but he isn't helping much.
And I thought I was the only one...
who wanted to keep DJ. Looks like there is a large minority who want to do so, as well. DJ is not the problem with this offense. In fact, he is one of the few bright spots.
And, I agree with rebus and several others, Kotsay has got to go next. From Baseball Prospectus:
STAT OF THE DAY
Bottom 5 2007 AL Center Fielders, by VORP
Player, Team, EqA, VORP
Mark Kotsay, OAK, .197, -5.3
Jerry Hairston, TEX, .223, -5.0
Jerry Owens, CHA, .185, -4.3
Rocco Baldelli, TBA, .221, -4.3
Hiram Bocachica, OAK, .119, -2.7
His current defensive contribution is vastly overrated by much of AN based on past performance. Time for Billy to dump this albatross and his contract and make room for improvement next year.
DJ's name comes up in trade talks
because he is pretty good, actually has some value, and we have enough other players to cover his loss. Its not so much a matter of us not liking him or DJ having a terrible year. Its more that we dont see DJ as the long term plan at first, and his trade value is higher than most pieces we can trade to rebuild with.
If we trade Kotsay, then every single one of our clubhouse leaders will be gone. If we are giving up on the season, might as well rip the heart out of the clubhouse too, eh. Although, at this point, if anyone can bring us some good rebuilding pieces I'd be happy with the trade.
by ZeroIndulgence on Jul 17, 2007 10:00 AM PDT reply actions
Agree for the most part
The reasons to trade DJ are:
- Free up a spot for Barton long-term. I do think that Barton is likely to be better than Johnson, but it's not clear by how much.
- Free up a spot for Piazza short-term. Note that Piazza isn't actually a very good hitter any more, and you also have to be willing to play Cust in the outfield, so I'm not sure this is really a net positive. But we have to do something with Piazza.
- Get some real value in exchange for Johnson.
The third point is key. Johnson, as you say, is a pretty decent hitter. If we can turn that asset into a prospect at a different position, it's worth doing. But if the best thing we can get for that asset is an overworked journeyman reliever, then I don't see the point.
agree, agree, agree
unless another team overpays for him or we get something real good in exchange for him and another A or 2 than he is a great platoon, pinch-hitter or backup for the price we are paying. We don't know Barton is going to be better and untill we do lets hang on to him for 3 more cheap years. You never know...he could acaully IMPROVE the next few years and be worth MORE in trade then.
by Anarch on Jul 17, 2007 3:47 PM PDT up reply actions
DJ
isn't nearly the player Swish is. Besides the defense and the walks, you're forgetting that this is the best DJ has played in the majors while I think everyone expects better from Swish. It's not hard to find a first baseman that can hit like DJ, but luckily the Yankees need one. We're not making the playoffs, let's sell high on him considering we'll have a better player ready to take over next year.
Also, Crosby to the Royals sounds smart. Crosby seems like the type of player Dayton Moore likes.
by Nick86 on Jul 17, 2007 10:44 AM PDT reply actions
I was more interested
in trading DJ back when the team was doing well and it looked like we had a shot at the playoffs. The logic was that he's a decent player but one we can replace with only a slight downgrade, so therefore we could trade him for a different decent player who is a better match for our needs right now.
Now that we stink and the odds against us going to the playoffs are 30:1 and growing, I think there's less need to trade him, though I'm still open to it if we get a good return. (I feel the same way about Shannon Stewart.)
I've never agreed with the "seller" mentality, the idea that when the team is out of contention you should trade away all your good players for prospects. But then again, I've found that in general on AN when one says "seller" one doesn't really mean selling off good players, just the crappy ones -- Kendall, Crosby, Kotsay, Kennedy, etc. In that case, I'm on board. But I don't think of it as "selling". I wanted to trade those guys as a "buyer", too.
I love DJ but he's only a utility guy
for the A's. He is clearly not better at 1B than Swisher and Cust's power would make him a second choice at DH too. Where else can he play on this team? Unless he is willing to play as a backup, I'm all for giving him a better long-term opportunity with another organization.
However, the guy is cheap and I don't think it would be a bad idea to keep him around. He is not going to "carry" a team but you could do a lot worse and his numbers are respectable. If he does get traded than it's a clear message that the A's think Barton is ready.
by ohtobe21likehuston on Jul 17, 2007 5:44 PM PDT reply actions
Trading DJ is an easy decision.
I can't believe the talk in this diary about Barton possibly being "no more than a AAAA hitter." He's 21 years old and raking in AAA, for God's sake!
Barton should be playing first tomorrow for the A's, or the day on which DJ is traded, whichever comes first.
DJ will be a decent major-league regular for a while, but on the order of a guy like Mike Pagliarulo. Barton has the potential to be John Olerud when he was threatening .400 in the '90's.
You ask the right question jubjub
Should the A's trade DJ so they can call up Barton?
HELL NO!
Maybe this is just semantics on my part, but you do not trade DJ in order to free up a spot for Barton. DJ is too valuable for that.
Trade DJ if you get a deal too good to say no to. Then you can replace him with Barton while using whomever you got in the DJ deal to strengthen the team elsewhere.
90% of the time
I agree with you (not a good sign) but in this case I am for shipping him out ASAP. The season is over and has been for 6 weeks or more, DJ is at his peak right now, his numbers will continue to fall and soon he will be challenging Crosby for the Mendoza line. He is who he is, a slow, patient hitter who refuses to learn from his mistakes, still a dead pull hitter who rolls over on everything, waits until he gets two strikes, then pops up or rolls to the first baseman.
Put Swisher at first, a far superior 1st baseman, and play anyone else in the outfield, what difference does it make now anyway? I'm guessing that in the next two weeks a high percentage of players will be traded anyway, actually it is an exciting time.
by china bob on Jul 18, 2007 9:46 AM PDT up reply actions
Piazza
I'd rather they trade Piazza than Johnson. Johnson will be so cheap for 3 more years IIRC...he can't become a FA for a while. Trade Stewart...put Swisher and Cust in the OF...let Johnson and Barton (if they must call him up) play 1B and DH. I'd rather see Barton stay in AAA for the whole year since it would be his first full year there. And especially since he wasn't so great until last month. I want to see him rip it down there consistently before being called up.
by johnspaz7 on Jul 18, 2007 7:50 AM PDT reply actions

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