This is the time of the season when teams decide whether they are "buyers" or "sellers" as the trade deadline nears. It was interesting to see Omar Minaya and Kenny Williams talking in the stands at the All Star game earlier this week. When asked whether he was a "seller" or a "buyer" this year, considering the White Sox weak first half, Williams said "we are both...we are always both."

After my initial reaction that his statement was political and lame, I realized that there was truth in it. General Managers are always analyzing their rosters, looking to make some moves for "right now" and others with an eye on 2008, 2009 etc. At AN we have mostly assumed that Billy Beane is a master at this (especially after reading Moneyball) and we’ve seen the results—great roster tweaks at the deadline more often than not.
This year might is arguably Beane’s most challenging. Faced with starting pitchers who have arguably "over-performed" in the first half and an offense that has "under-performed", a record breaking number of injuries, a record right around .500, an Angels team that is running away with the division and a vastly improved Seattle squad, Billy is caught in a situation he really hasn’t faced this decade. Yes, in the past he’s had similar records at the break—but he doesn’t have the same reasons for optimism for the second half he’s had in those years.
The fact is that it wouldn’t surprise me at all if the A’s 2nd half record is worse than the first half. Reasons?   Just look at the rotation, the pen, and the lineup. Will Dan Haren duplicate his fantastic first half? Doubtful. Will Joe Blanton continue to have his best year? Maybe. Will Chad Gaudin struggle with his control? See last night. Will Lenny DiNardo continue to pitch to an ERA less than 3? No. Will we find a #5 starter? Maybe, depending on Loiaza’s return.
Will Huston Street be effective when he returns? Will Santiago Garcia Casilla continue to have an ERA less than 1? Did the rest on the DL help Kiko Calero? Is Joe Kennedy going to return to his bullpen form of last year?
Shannon Stewart may well continue to hit a weak .300, Chavy may miraculously find the world’s best acupuncturist, Jack Cust may be an Adam Dunn, but will Nick Swisher return to .290 or continue to sink to .250? Is there any way Bobby Crosby gets to .250? We all hoped the back surgery would "straighten out" Mark Kotsay—but straighten him out to what? .270 with little power? Maybe a bright spot (other than Cust) will be the continued emergence of Travis Buck.
So, what does Billy do? I think he HAS to look at next year. Without saying so, the A’s will be sellers this year.  I suspect he’ll jettison Piazza, look to get value for DJ, look for a fifth starter, and add some more youth.
Speaking of youth, I always like to look at stats—especially with an eye toward finding players who are having breakout years. Yesterday, I found two. Two who are eerily similar, although one’s breakout is in MLB and the other’s is in AAA—take a look (stats through yesterday):
Player A (MLB): 295 AB, 50 R,  96 H, 22 2B, 1 3B, 9 HR, 45 RBI, 42 BB, 40 K, .325 BA, .420 OBP, .918 OPS
Player B (AAA): 325 AB, 52 R, 105 H, 29 2B, 3 3B, 6 HR, 49 RBI, 44 BB, 38 K, .323 BA, .408 OBP, .894 OPS
I suspect AN knows who player B is...any guesses for player A?