The A's head into the All-Star break in the unfamilar position of non-contenders.  And let's not kid ourselves.  One of the many sobering bits of information I read in recent days was that the A's haven't been this far away from a playoff spot at the break since 2001, when they won just about every single game in the second half just to make the Wild Card.  And that 2001 team was the most talented A's team since the 1990 World Series squad.

I understand that the Mariners may be playing a bit over their heads, based on runs scored and runs allowed, but their bullpen is pretty solid.  The A's may catch Seattle, but it hardly matters, because the Angels and at least one other non-division winner will almost certainly beat them out.

So we start to look to the future, and here's what I see:

The A's pitching situation is not as dire as it has looked in recent weeks.  Dan Haren has been the best starter in the league, and even assuming he regresses, is a legitimate ace.  Joe Blanton is a very solid starter when he has his usual control.  Chad Gaudin may struggle as his innings mount, but I think he's a find for the rotation.  It gets dicey after that, I'll admit, but things should be okay even if Rich Harden never throws a ball again.  Loaiza will be back, and next year, will be on a salary drive.  He's been very good the last couple of times he was in the last year of his contract.  He should be a decent #4 starter.  At that point, the team will just need to find somebody to fill the fifth slot, and that's not impossible to fill.

The bullpen has been an injury-riddled mess, with the top three guys from 2006 all missing significant time to injury and/or ineffectiveness.  Casilla has been very good, though.  Hopefully, the A's get the injured guys back to supplement the healthy arms who have performed well.

The pitching staff, overall, has been very good.  And even without Harden, it should be a strength next year.

I'm less sanguine about the lineup.  It is increasingly clear that Chavez will never be an offensive star, and he may never be more than an average hitter.  Swisher is a good and versatile player, although it's not clear if he will ever be great.  I like Mark Ellis a lot, for his defense and general headiness.  Jack Cust has been a fun story.  But really, the A's lineup bores the hell out of me.  The team has too many players on the downsides of their careers (Kotsay, Kendall, Chavez apparently) and decidedly average players who don't hit enough (Johnson, Crosby).  It's obvious that one of the reasons people are still mourning Milton Bradley's departure is that he, when healthy, brought a jolt of excitement that only a five-tool player can bring.  The A's don't have those sorts of players, or intimidating forces like Frank Thomas last season, and so the team hopes to scratch and claw its way to three or four runs each game - if we're lucky.

There is no quick fix to this problem.  Oh, fine.  Kendall will leave, and should be a backup the rest of this season unless he's traded.  But it's a little much to expect a rookie catcher to do too much.  The A's have a lot of holes.  I always chuckle when I read comments from team officials about a logjam at this position or that.  What logjam?  Who's so wonderful that they can't sit on the bench?  I suppose we need Swisher, and nobody else can play third competently, so Chavez makes the list by default.  But that's pretty much it, and Chavez is somebody I would trade for the right price.

Barton is finally hitting, so I guess we can be hopeful about that, but the farm system doesn't seem to be brimming with prospects.  And that brings me to a longer-term concern.  The A's farm system seems pretty barren to me.  Meanwhile, I was just reading yesterday about the Yankees' AA starters.  They all won't be good major leaguers, but the Evil Empire is getting smarter in its free-spending ways.  This isn't good news for the A's, who have responded by acquiring a bunch of guys who make Milton Bradley look like the picture of health.  That may work out at times (and Cust is a healthy example of that) but it doesn't seem like the most likely way to build a pennant winner.

There's no easy way out of this.  Billy Beane faces a stiff challenge in the coming months and years.  The good news is that the team should have enough pitching to stay on the fringes of contention.  The bad news?  They may not have enough to do more than that.