The audition
by monkeyball on Jun 29, 2007 7:12 PM PDT
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PrintNo, not DJ -- Kennedy.
After a fugly (and predictably so) 1st inning, and a couple more shaky ones, Kennedy righted himself and pitched an effective, progressively solid 6 innings against the Yankees. With Embree having imploded, DJ remaining in his trough, and the Piazza Ploy fooling no one, Joe Kennedy may at this point be the only decent trading chip Beane has.
I'd count Shannon Stewart as a decent trading chip, given his recent offensive resurgence, but the plethora of injuries has rendered him nearly indispensable. (OK, not really; if Kielty comes back and Buck recuperates, Stewart can go. But when I'm pushed to advocate hanging on to Stewart ...)
DJ -- who now at least is putting the occasional decent swing on the ball, but isn't hitting his way out of his bad luck -- is not only worse than most of the hitters on the market, he's probably a worse option than the contenders looking for 1B/DH help already have on their rosters.
Of course, when we're talking about offloading marginal players rather than the outcome of the game, that's a sign ... that we should probably be offloading players.
Beyond Kennedy's course correction and Stewart's 3-hit night, the A's really didn't have many bright spots tonight. Braden did chip in 2 decent, unflappable innings. No one (so far as we can tell) broke or strained anything. No one was arrested.
Once again, this was precisely the sort of game Beane has designed the A's to play (albeit with exemplary contributions from unexpected sources): solid starting pitching, shut-down work from the pen, solid defense ... and not enough extra-base hits. It's boring to write that over and over, but it's the monotonous reality of the A's roster as constituted.
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I have a stone in my shoe.
and its bobby crosby.
And where was Harden?
Wasn't he supposed to pitch two innings? Maybe he changed his name to Dallas Braden.
by richwol on Jun 29, 2007 7:16 PM PDT reply actions
Stewart and Kennedy
I'm trying to decide if this is the worst A's team in 10 years. I can't exactly recall the 1997 team vs. the 1998 team, etc. but I do believe it's the worst A's team since 1999, which is pretty depressing.
And Rich Harden stays healthy as well as Zito remembers to attack the strike zone. What's the strike zone? I'll explain it to you later, Croz.
Take my ranting with a grain of salt because I'm in a pissy mood over the prospect of a dull Summer baseball-wise. But I am pretty disappointed that the A's brass, usually so smart, allowed this team to happen. Geren deserves better than to have 40% of his roster on the DL because his bosses don't have the cajones to fire the people who need to be fired.
Crosby and Chavez
still have value for some team out there. ROY 2004 (or whenever) and Gold Glove numerous times. Why oh why does BB think they are so wonderful?
by FanSinceKC on Jun 29, 2007 7:27 PM PDT up reply actions
Same here, but no one is
I am just talking about in a perfect world.
I know that currently we have noone to take his place. Noone that could do any better anyway. Any news on why Harden didn't pitch?
uh, harden didnt pitch
BECAUSE HE IS INJURED!!! can we just stop talking about him? he's a non-issue and will not factor even remotely into this dismal club...
But what is the new info?
Prior to the game they said he would pitch. and sorry I am not writing off the possibility that he may play in some games for us again this year. Maybe not for any length of time but we will see his behind again I am sure.
Do you really think so?
I'm trying to think of teams with players that could help the A's, and I'm not sure any of them need a LOOGY. Detroit maybe, but I don't see them giving the A's anyone useful for Kennedy.
by IndianaAsfan on Jun 29, 2007 7:32 PM PDT up reply actions
I don't know about that Indiana.
I would have to look at the rosters of all of the teams more closely. What a mess this all is.
<tiptoeing on this subject>
I think at this point Larry Davis has to be fired. I just don't think there's an option - the number and frequency of injuries is absurd.
However, I still maintain that Beane bears some responsibility as well. He acquired Bradley, Stewart, and Snelling. All three had a history of injury before being subjected to Larry Davis (why does the movie Hostel come to mind?). Now, I think it downright amazing that Crosby has survived the whole first half to date. Not that he's helping all that much. His at bat in the ninth was painful to watch and painfully predictable as well.
by IndianaAsfan on Jun 29, 2007 7:30 PM PDT up reply actions
It doesn't have to be
True enough
I have to admit I was torn when the Buck to the DL was announced. If he's playing that's time Davis doesn't have with him. Hopefully he's spending his time on the DL with an outside trainer.
by IndianaAsfan on Jun 29, 2007 7:42 PM PDT up reply actions
"Time on the DL with an outside trainer"
has become pretty much the standard A's player rehab choice. I'd guess I've read 5-10 times as many stories about other medical pros' role in DL'd A's recoveries as I have about what Larry Davis is doing to get players back healthy. And that's just sad.
by FreeSeatUpgrade on Jun 29, 2007 7:56 PM PDT up reply actions
"phone" problems on Buan's show
Phone told to rest 2-4 weeks
and we get "feel-good"
interview with "fan favorite" Byrnsie...
Wasn't Buan
condescending in that Buan Bazaar show on Sunday?
by FanSinceKC on Jun 29, 2007 7:34 PM PDT up reply actions
right now the A's can't worry about the angels.
they just need to start winning again. the chances of them even catching the angels are very slim, but if they can pull it together, they have a chance at the wild card.
by larrysgurl on Jun 29, 2007 7:37 PM PDT up reply actions
We are 7 games back in the wildcard if Cleveland
won today and 9 and a half from the Angels. The goals aren't that far apart. But I agree with you...the focus should be on winning. and everything else will fall in place or not.
you're right, they aren't that far apart, but I
do see them having a better chance of winning the wild card then the division. Of course they have to win to do that. getting healthy would help too.
by larrysgurl on Jun 29, 2007 7:43 PM PDT up reply actions
Yeah the WC is the more reachable goal.
I don't know. It's just too early for me to call this team out of contention. I have seen too many teams come back over the years and make a run.
If the injuries weren't what they were,
by larrysgurl on Jun 29, 2007 7:55 PM PDT up reply actions
I'm trying.
by larrysgurl on Jun 29, 2007 8:09 PM PDT up reply actions
Depends on how many wins we get
If we turn it around and finish with around 95 wins, then wild card is more likely than division, because 95 is very likely enough for the wild card but it's still better than 50-50 that the Angels stay hot and do even better.
If we turn it around not quite as much and finish with around 90 wins, then division is more likely because even though it's unlikely that the Angels will collapse and finish below that, it's even more unlikely that all of the other wild card contenders will drop below 90.
Two Weeks Ago
the A's were 4 games out. We lacked Street, Duke, Kotsay (I believe), Bradley, Kielty at that time.
by FanSinceKC on Jun 29, 2007 7:45 PM PDT up reply actions
but why
the collapse in the last ten days?
by FanSinceKC on Jun 29, 2007 7:51 PM PDT up reply actions
but they held up for so long
maybe we were lucky to have as wonderful a season as we were having before late June (sigh).
by FanSinceKC on Jun 29, 2007 7:56 PM PDT up reply actions
But we knew that the 4 and 5 spots...
in the rotation were doing better than expected. So we were lucky in a way.I say in a way because coming back down to earth hurts.
our pitching and hitting
have been on different cycles. Our batting has picked up recently, but it was our pitching that kept us in games until lately.
by FanSinceKC on Jun 29, 2007 8:03 PM PDT up reply actions
we are a second half team.
The strong spurts early got us psyched up too much. We will rebound.
At least that's what the juice bottle I've got says.
At least you guys didn't have to watch the last 3 innings in a Yankee bar, with no one to commisserate with, then play piano with one of the worst guitar players ever, the Larry Davis of New York. I have made it official.
Sorry, bad night all around.
okay, i am listening to Byrnes
on the Buan show.....fairly articulate and now credible guy...compared to <cough> crosby.
Rewind to past years and I would have bet that Crosby had more chance of panning out better offensively than Byrnes...man, Byrnes would annoy me with his popups and constant rolling over the pitch with resulting dribblers....but he, pardon the pun, pulled out it...as evidence now in NL with D-backs.
Words you never want to hear
"And the A's last hope is Bobby Crosby."
Is there anyone who didn't know exactly how that AB would end?
Get Murphy some ABs. Crosby is toast.
A's have chips of value to deal
but only in exchange for returns that don't pay off until later. I don't see any reason to speculate on what pieces the A's might pick up to revive this year's team...I don't think the A's brass are thinking much about October 2007 any more. And for that matter, I don't think they've thought a whole lot in those terms since the ALCS. In the master plan as I imagine it '06 was the go for it year, while '07 (and quite possibly 8 and 9) are about building for the future.
by FreeSeatUpgrade on Jun 29, 2007 7:50 PM PDT reply actions
Something like that
It's not that the A's are trying to field weak teams in order to make lots of money, like Florida. There's neither plundering-via-payroll cuts nor traditional rebuilding in the Oakland approach. The front office wants good teams, but still within a thrifty framework...even thought their revenue is higher than ever and trending sharply up. They're keeping up appearances (Piazza, Stewart) but very much with the thought that their money will be better spent later.
by FreeSeatUpgrade on Jun 29, 2007 8:03 PM PDT up reply actions
Their revenue is trending
sharply up? What's your source for that? I haven't noticed a groundswell in attendance, and Channel 36 still makes more money on "That 70's Show" reruns, which is why so many games are radio-only.
by Checkswing HR on Jun 29, 2007 10:13 PM PDT up reply actions
attendance has virtually zip to do with revenue
I beg to differ on this
while the main source of revenue is advertising and corporate sponsorships, game day concessions and ticket prices do provide a bit more than "zip" in revenue. They aren't the main source anymore, that's for sure, but they can't be discounted either as irrelevant.
by IndianaAsfan on Jun 30, 2007 9:50 AM PDT up reply actions
If you're going to keep saying this
you ought to formulate it differently, e.g.:
-Marginal attendance has virtually zip...
-Attendance has virtually zip to do with marginal revenue.
-Attendance by us fans, as opposed to "attendance" by businesses has virtually zip...
-Attendance has virtually zip to with franchise appreciation.
But the way you said it is clearly false, both in absolute terms (attendance is a large part of the team's revenue), and relative terms (various teams bring in substantially (non-trivially) more revenue from attendance than the A's).
And I don't think it's true that revenue is trending sharply up relative to the rest of the league.
I didn't say relative
It's trending up in absolute terms, and the A's profit numbers are the highest in team history, and the recent franchise value appreciation is among the top 5 in MLB in percentage terms. Most tellingly, their payroll-to-revenue percentage in this time of league-wide prosperity has plunged what, 10-15% over the last three years? (too lazy to look it up now). So the point that the A's have chosen not to "go for it" in '07 in payroll terms relative to the recent past or (I imagine) the near future, is I believe unassailable.
by FreeSeatUpgrade on Jun 30, 2007 10:55 AM PDT up reply actions
I was responding to monkeyball
I'm also not sure your conclusion really follows in that they've been spending some money lately, and it's not clear at all that spending more money the last few years would have brought better results. The fact that there's money there to be spent doesn't mean there has been any good place to spend it. I don't think it's clear at all that they've chosen not to go for it in '07.
There's obviously truth in what you say
(since I was the author of the revenue trend comment I jumped in). Your bit about no good place to spend the money is especially true. It's a subtle thing...the A's are obviously going for it in the sense that they field a team with a chance to win. But I don't see them "going for it" in the sense that they did last year, nor in the deal for a big bat/arm this year sense. And I don't necessarily think that's the wrong decision either. I just think the payroll/roster structure suggests an even greater eye on the future, at the expense of the present, than we saw in the past couple of years.
by FreeSeatUpgrade on Jun 30, 2007 11:59 AM PDT up reply actions
I agree with most of that, FSU,
Every team has some injuries but only the A's have so many, and so many that recur. Given an ordinary # of injuries, the A's would have been solid contenders in 2007.
It's not that they didn't expect to contend
Like you and others said back in March, it looked like the kind of squad that could contend if everything went exactly as planned. I just think that was the ceiling for 2007, and it was a lower ceiling than in 06. And that that was the plan...contend if possible, but not at all costs, and certainly not at the expense of payroll/roster a few years down the road.
by FreeSeatUpgrade on Jun 29, 2007 8:35 PM PDT up reply actions
When Beane said the 2005 team
Wrong, wrong, wrong, and wrong.
Brad Knox goes into the 4th inning with a no
hitter leaves in the 4th with no outs and down 6-1 after seven straight hits.
by theblackpearl on Jun 29, 2007 8:18 PM PDT up reply actions
Just like any other day
The A's lose the game except this time was not as painful as other losses this week. Harden not pitching tonite has to signal serious red flags. I did not even see him anywhere and there sems to be a recurring theme here folks........DL.
On the brighter side, the wheather in the bay area this afternoon was very nice...........
oh yeah.....
Bobby Crosby is a piece of garbage and Erica is the second to last person I want to see at the plate when we need a big hit......
ugh.............
Cmon
don't stoop to the easy emasculating insults to cast aspersions on Eric. Be more creative! Compare him to Michael Brown, or Spiro Agnew.
Or the male Angler Fish, who upon finding a mate, latches on, and becomes only a source of genetic material for his mate.
or
John Ehrlichman
Gary Glitter
Rick James
Elia Kazan
Huey Long
actually, Chavvy doesn't deserve any of those randoms. Go Chavvy go! I liked his hustle sliding in to second testing the arm of Abreu. I've decided that I do not like Bobby Abreu.
Cammy Blackstone is every bit
as bad as the posters at McCovey Chronicles made her seem. Someone make her stop.
We still have hope...
We're on the same wavelength...
See below...
by BruceBochte on Jun 29, 2007 9:02 PM PDT up reply actions
I rarely see Crosby smoke balls
Whenever he does make contact it seems it's always a rollover to the left side.
by Helloooo 1st on Jun 29, 2007 10:35 PM PDT up reply actions
Remember earlier this year
the Angels had a road trip that went through Cleveland (well actually Milwaukee) and the east coast. They went 1-8 on the trip and just looked horrible. Well now, a few months later, they have the most wins in baseball.
There is no reason that the A's won't turn it around after a few pieces come back off the DL. Just a couple of decent bullpen arms would have meant at least 2 more wins this week.
I see this team turning it around and making a serious run at the wildcard and/or the division before it is all said and done...
by BruceBochte on Jun 29, 2007 8:55 PM PDT reply actions
alox and Bruce Bochte,
The two hitters we've been waiting for are Bradley and Piazza. Bradley's gone and Piazza won't be better than Cust already has been.
The two starters we've been waiting for are Harden and Loaiza. I don't believe Harden's coming back; Loaiza for DiNardo will be a decent upgrade after the ASB but I don't expect him to be terrific (like Harden could be or like Haren is), just more reliably good.
The two relievers we've been waiting for are Street and Duke and their presence would help a lot. But by the time we have our bullpen back in order (August 1st if Street has no setbacks), we will be down to 60 games left in the season.
In May, 2005 we were this bad (3-16 stretch) but we had Haren and Blanton destined to improve the rotation substantially just by going from "raw" to "ready," and we had 100 games left when we got through the rough patch.
By my calculation, the A's won't be fielding a substantially better team (i.e., Loaiza rehabbed and stretched out and a reliable bullpen, because I don't think the offense will really change much at any point) until August 1st at the soonest, meaning they'll probably have to go about 45-15 to have a shot at the playoffs. That's a tall order to say the least.
And to boot
there is no calvary for the hitting.
Pitching should improve, but the hitting looks to be a black hole.
I have one problem with your "calculation"
It makes too much sense. Sure, all signs point towarads a .500 calibur team in the second half even if most of the injured return.... but things never work out how they should. Should the A's have been leading the league in ERA with two starters out and their best three relievers out or pitching injured? Of course not, but wacky things happen.
Mark Ellis could have another .950 second half OPS. Jason Kendall could have a .400 OBP the rest of the way. Eric Chavez could hit like he did last April. Bobby Crosby could... well, I won't get too carried away. I think you get the my point. And the wild card is always Billy Beane. He might be able to get rid of some or all of Pizza's contract and pull off another season saving trade for the almighty "big bat".
You're 100% right, McBain,
Hope is what makes baseball so great, just as baseball is what makes hope so painful.
If the A's have taught us anything it's...
...anything can happen with this team. 20 wins in a row? Are you kidding me? A .700 second half? Those things shouldn't happen to a team with limited finances. Every player on the roster is capable of doing something incredible for a few months. If a few of them get crazy at the same time the playoffs might not seem like a long shot. What if they do to the Angels what they did the Mariners last year?
My only gripe with this team is they aren't all that exciting to watch. Maybe that's because Moneyball is boring. Hitters working the count to get to the middle relievers. Great strategy but... yawn. Last year Frank Thomas made them exciting. Years ago they had Tejada and Giambi. I like Cust and Swisher but maybe they should just start the at bat with a 3-2 count and cut to the chase.
I don't have a reason for it,
but i agree with you that i find this year's bunch very boring. Even while they were winning my attention drifted constantly unlike in year's past when i was completely into every single game. It frightens me a tad because i'm worried that i'm losing my fandom. Maybe i should go on the DL or something because it just doesn't feel right this year.
by Helloooo 1st on Jun 29, 2007 10:39 PM PDT up reply actions
Maybe I shouldn't complain
The Giants have had two exciting things going for them for several years now.. Barry Bonds and their stadium. Those two factors brought in a lot of revenue but now they're actually hurting the organizaion.
Maybe the bottom line is the succesfull, long term approach isn't always sexy. Better to have a few "boring" .500 seasons with the occasional second round playoff action or 20 wins in row.
Lay off DJ
You want to complain about someone its Bobby strike out crosby. Crosby sucks. I was hoping the A's put in scutaro than have crosby swing badly at three pitches. Crosby is almost a bad hitter as his dad was. lets get rid of him before he sucks up some more money.
I said it in the game thread
Plus, having been burned on an inside fastball in Oakland, you know Rivera would have stayed away; Scutaro could have sat away and aimed for the short porch. At least we would have had SOME chance. Crosby is truly ridiculous.
Nico, you and I agreed
on pinch-hitting Scutaro in the 9th inning.
Earlier this season we also agreed that as long as the team is at 500 at the All-Star Break we'll be just fine. Sounds like maybe you're having doubts about that now.
I see this team as about equal to the 2005 team. We've actually got a better record right now than we did at this time in 2005 (when we were a couple games below 500 at the end of June) though the current streak is in the wrong direction.
I think it's important to Billy to at least be a contender, even if we fall short at the end like we did in 2005. For that reason, I don't think he'll go into fire sale mode, but I don't think he'll sit pat and do nothing either.
I think Billy disagrees with Monkeyball on the matter of small improvements. His typical mid-season pattern during this seven-year run has not been to make a huge move as buyer or seller, but rather to make one or two modest moves that make us say, "well, OK, that's a little better, but it's still not what we really need" (eg, Payton, Dotel, Durham, J Guillen). But it turns out to be just enough to get us to finish somewhere around 90 wins.
I expect something similar this year. If the Angels collapse in the second half, that might be enough to get us into the playoffs. If they don't, then we're probably one of several teams that have an outside shot of the wild card at the end (which I don't think we get).
I don't think it's true that we have nothing of value to trade --
not once you accept that the sort of trade we're looking at is a modest one and not a big blockbuster. There are plenty of recent precedents for what type of players we're willing to give up mid-season -- a decent player on the big-league roster who is having mixed results now but could well have a good future (eg, Eric Byrnes), a promising AAA player who is one of our better prospects but not the very best (eg, Omar Quintanilla), a player with a record of success on the team who is just now coming off the DL (eg, Chad Bradford). It doesn't require much imagination to find comparables for any one of those.
how would that be Beane disagreeing with me?
I've been saying the last two days that Beane is likely to not do much, and what he does do will be to diddle at the margins.
mdl, I said .500 on June 1st
Hard to argue with the Crosby bashers...
But I don't think BC is as dumb a hitter as he looks. I think some players just can't recognize the breaking pitches. The only way a player like that sticks around is if he hit's a decent amount of long balls. He's always going to strike out and hit into double plays. I want to see more homers.
I think it's both
No duh.
Keep in mind Cosby is a pretty big guy...
Isn't he 6'4? Guys that tall are usually going to have problems with the inside pitch. I think that's why he stands so far from the plate. Ken Macha, of all people, made a good point a year or so ago. I think he was talking about Chavez... he said he doesn't really care if a hitter hits the ball hard the other way as long as he has plate coverage. Right now Crosby doesn't have good plate coverage. There are too many holes in his swing. Maybe, if he did what you said "shorten your swing" he'd hit a few more flares into right center, but I rather have another Dave Kingman than another Jason Kendall.
I'd love a Dave Kingman
and he can probably try harder
to lower his ba too.
So, he has to work on a few small details...
.. like sending rats to female reporters and hitting 35 home runs in a season.
well boy howdy, there is no
like of trying to hit homers from Crosby....
crosby can't see
Crosby needs to get some glasses. His ego is so big he will not admit he can't see the pitches. He swings late on pitches alot which means he can't see them until they are close. He has a good swing but is always late. I don't care if he looks geeky in glasses as long as he start hitting.
It may be the optimist in me...
I'm not saying they'll carry the team like big Frank did last year, but they'll certainly keep the team's head above water until the season runs its course.
All indications have pointed to the team being built for later years, with players (Suzuki, Barton, Denorfia was an obvious pick up for next year, and now Andrew Brown) just waiting until they can get their chance to fill in. And who knows, maybe in the offseason the brass will decide to finally splurge on an impact player like Torii Hunter to add to the solid young talent.
We don't need another aging
CFer signed to a large contract. Besides, the OF is full with Buck, Swisher, and Denorfia. BB is not going to spend the big bucks to get a guy like Hunter. However, hypothetically speaking, if he had one big contract to give I'd have him wait until Teixeira is a FA and go for him. Find somewhere to put Barton.
by Helloooo 1st on Jun 29, 2007 10:43 PM PDT up reply actions
We bag on Crosby,
deservedly so, but I notice that Kotsay's OPS is just 3 points higher than Crosby's, at .641, so I say to heck with it, bench Kotsay and put Cust in right field and DH Piazza. Cust's D can't be THAT bad, can it?
Somebody (I think it was one of the radio announcers) said the offense performed well on Thursday. They only scored 3 runs! When 3 runs looks like a lot of offense, then could it possibly be a sign that aggressive measures have to be taken?
And getting back to Crosby, you know it's REALLY going badly for him when you don't hear any more leering comments about his ass from the womenfolk at AN.
by Checkswing HR on Jun 29, 2007 10:45 PM PDT reply actions
hmmm, that's right, those
comments by the fairer sex towards Crosby have more less dropped off the map.
They do say that
Chicks dig the long ball.....the strikeout, not so much.
Cust's D in right
Um, unfortunately yes, it can be that bad. His throw against the Mets was pretty awful...
by IndianaAsfan on Jun 30, 2007 9:36 AM PDT up reply actions
Some really interesting points in this thread.
It got me to thinking. How about some speculation on what our 2008 or 2009 team will look like? Will Crosby and Chavez still be on our lineup card? I think we can safely say that the "franchise player" label has shifted over to Swisher at this point. Haren and Blanton seem to be locks. Beyond that, I can't begin to imagine who will be around to take the field in Fremont. Any guesses?
Harden was supposed to pitch 2 innings Friday
but accoring to Urban in the mlb.com game wrap "he didn't feel very good". Harden insisted "It isn't a setback or anything". No indication when he might pitch next, but he'll play catch Saturday. The article didn't say if he will throw after 'catching' the ball.
All this started when he put a "little extra" on the pitches to the last batter he faced. Seems to me he needs to adjust to a career without that little extra.
by bolt on Jun 30, 2007 1:45 AM PDT reply actions
Stewart deserves move love than he's getting
No, his numbers aren't spectacular, but stats are incomplete when determining a player's value and contribution. And, no, he's never going to be a superstar outfielder.
Having said that, he has been reasonably consistent, i.e. no major slumps, which is quite rare on this team. He has been relatively healthy, again somewhat rare. He has also been the most "clutch" guy on the team throughout the whole season, with Cust being possibly the only guy more so. Bottom line, he has performed admirably, capably, and consistent enough that he's one of the few position players they can actually count on for some positive offensive results on a decently regular basis.
absolutely
As lieutenant in the Stewart H8R Brigade, I acknowledge that Stewart has not only played better than my dismal expectations, but perhaps even better than Beane's expectations (especially considering the amount of playing time and the relatively high degree of health).
I never understood the hate for steart
He's been pretty reliable, and overall a good leadoff hitter. He's even hit a few homeruns lately. The issue we need to look at right now is getting more production from center.
those with trade value
no one mentioned Kendall as trade bait....I know, I know, blood worms might be better. But I'm just saying if he is so damn good at calling the game and managing the staff and hard working and fabulous club house guy and all that other propaganda bs, surely somebody out there might need that?????
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