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What’s the likeliest solution to the team’s current needs?

First off, let’s establish some current conditions:

  • The A’s currently trail the Angels by 8.5 games for the division lead, and the Indians by 6 games (and would have to leapfrog the Mariners and the Twins) for the wild card
  • All of the teams in front of the A’s for playoff spots (with the exception of the Twins) have deep pockets and/or GMs willing/able to make costly deals for “impact players” for the stretch run
  • The A’s have some significant and intractable injury/debilitation problems
  • Injuries aside, the A’s have some significant roster problems—most notably, a below-average offense and a not-so-VORP-y middle/back of the rotation [y es, I do think that, “injuries aside,” the A’s 3-5 starters (+6-7, as every team needs to be prepared for occasional subs/scrubs making spot starts) are dicey at best. I considered the A’s 1-2 from the outset of the season to be Haren and Blanton, and that it was folly to count on Harden as a consistent, healthy presence in the rotation. While Gaudin and Kennedy started nicely, their recent struggles demonstrate that they’ll likely both be pretty inconsistent. Loaiza, if healthy, would have eaten a lot of innings and pushed Gaudin and Kennedy back to more “natural” spots (and kept DiNardo in the ’pen), but he likely would have been league-average at best.]
  • The offense, while dismal only at 2-3 positions, requires more than one “big bat” to boost its performance appreciably
  • The A’s don’t really have a whole lot of trade ammunition, as the players with the most potential trade value (Haren, Swisher, Buck, Blanton) are young, healthy, and cheap enough that Beane essentially can’t trade them
  • The short-timer potential rent-a-players (Piazza, Kendall, Kennedy, Kotsay) are mostly underperforming and expensive and therefore wouldn’t bring much of value back
  • The areas where the A’s need offensive improvement just to reach league average (SS and C; CF since Kotsay is an untouchable) are tough positions to find offensive production from anyway, and are currently filled by good defenders (albeit all on downward defensive trends); and good offensive players at those positions command premium trade value
  • The areas where good offensive players are available on the trade market (corner OF, 1B, DH) are positions where the A’s already have a glut of productive and potentially productive interchangeable parts, and the marginal upgrade wouldn’t be worth the acquisition costs
  • The area where an A’s strength has taken the most significant hit in performance this year (the “late” end of the bullpen—Duke, Kiko, and Huston) is another premium-trade-value sector, and likely not worth the expense
  • Beane has never made a truly “blockbuster” trade—not in the sense of trading a player before his expense has clearly exceeded his performance value (I don’t think Chavvy’s there yet; which means that unless he really regresses at bat and in the field, he won’t for the remainder of his contract), not in the sense of trading a major roster contributor not about to walk for an overvalued contract, not in the sense of trading away 2+ major roster contributors at once or genuinely overhauling the roster, not in the sense of trading for an expensive (both salary and trade-cost) “name” player

That said, I’d look for Beane to follow three paths, either separately or in combination, between now and July 31st:

  • Remain relatively inactive
  • Acquire cheap middle-to-back-of-the-rotation pitchers
  • Acquire cheap LOOGY/ROOGY/mopup-duty/bullpen-spackle pitchers

Of course, having typed this up, I’m sure to see within 15 minutes a RotoWorld sidebar saying that Beane has finally traded Chavez, Kotsay, Kendall, DJ,and Harden to the Yankees for A-Rod and Posada … as well as to be smacked down in any number of my initial assumptions by an angry AN mob.

Poll
What do you think Beane is most likely to do before the trade deadline?
Trade monkeyball to Anaheim for the Rally Monkey
23 votes
Engage in a ruthless Loria-esque stripping of the roster simply to maximize his franchise-value stake
10 votes
Fire sale, bitches
38 votes
Fire stale britches
14 votes
Fire snail snitches
19 votes
Stand pat and wait for players to heal
97 votes
Diddle at the margins and pick up more VORP- bullpen and rotation dross
97 votes
Fire Geren, bring back Wash, and ride a unicorn over the rainbow
27 votes
Trade Ginter, Perez, and Karros for Pujols
51 votes

376 votes | Poll has closed

Comment 29 comments  |  0 recs  | 

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I voted for "diddle at the margins"

It sounds dirty.

"...but we're also always open to hearing about other sandwiches if it can make our lunch better." -- Nico, channeling Billy Beane

by iglew on Jun 29, 2007 11:38 AM PDT reply actions  

Offensive improvement

You say that the spots where we most need help (eg, SS) are "tough positions to find offensive production from" and "good offensive players at those positions command premium trade value".

But on another diary when I proposed trading Crosby-plus-someone to Houston for Mark Loretta, the general response was that Crosby has more value than Loretta and if anything they ought to give us an extra piece to make that trade fair.

Well, OK then, if that's true, then here's a simple and realistic answer to how we can improve the offense right now: Replace Crosby with Loretta.

What we'd be giving up is years, in the sense that Crosby is young and might still be good again some day, whereas Loretta is a 36-year-old veteran signed only for the rest of the year. I'm OK with that.

I don't know who our SS of the future, but I'm pretty sure it's not Crosby. I'm ready to give up on him, and then worry later about long-term replacement. Maybe next year we try Murphy, or Petit, or trade for someone else. But for now, Loretta is an obtainable guy who can take over for the rest of the year and is an immediate boost to the offense.

"...but we're also always open to hearing about other sandwiches if it can make our lunch better." -- Nico, channeling Billy Beane

by iglew on Jun 29, 2007 11:49 AM PDT reply actions  

Loretta is not a legit SS....

his problem has always been defense.  He's a right-handed version of Todd Walker.  He's barely a passable 2B.

"just a beating heart ... plasma that we'll put into our uniform." Billy Beane

by athleticsBB4life on Jun 29, 2007 12:02 PM PDT up reply actions  

I say put Cust at SS
But just because something can be plotted on an X and Y axis does not make it the whole truth. @('.')@

by monkeyball on Jun 29, 2007 12:16 PM PDT up reply actions  

"worry later about long-term replacement"

... before or after you go on KNBR to bitch about fan and ownership pressure, Brian?

But just because something can be plotted on an X and Y axis does not make it the whole truth. @('.')@

by monkeyball on Jun 29, 2007 12:16 PM PDT up reply actions  

Whether we trade Crosby or not

The question of SS of the future is unanswered regardless.

It's not like trading away Crosby suddenly creates a need. The need is already there. Crosby is not the answer.

"...but we're also always open to hearing about other sandwiches if it can make our lunch better." -- Nico, channeling Billy Beane

by iglew on Jun 29, 2007 12:40 PM PDT up reply actions  

I think in any "major deal"
DJ is going to be shipped out. No matter who you acquired, it would most likely lead to his decreased playing time and if he can put together a good couple weeks you can increase his value and then ship him out, along with other parts, for something nice and partly shiny.
"Their batters are patient to the point that it's annoying." -Ryan Franklin, Seattle Mariners

by Helloooo 1st on Jun 29, 2007 12:06 PM PDT reply actions  

if DJ's in it, I think it's by definition "minor"

The only reason DJ will be moved is to make room for Barton -- i.e., not to bring anything back of value.

It'd make more sense to me to simply demote DJ and warehouse him in Sacto.

But just because something can be plotted on an X and Y axis does not make it the whole truth. @('.')@

by monkeyball on Jun 29, 2007 12:18 PM PDT up reply actions  

Johnson's future is definitely not in Oakland
we can both agree on that, but would you agree that by demoting him and letting him rot in Sacto would decrease his trade value?

Also, I think DJ could be included in any "major" deal, especially one involving a 1B/CO/DH player, because the other team may be looking for a
young(er) 1B/DH in return.

"Their batters are patient to the point that it's annoying." -Ryan Franklin, Seattle Mariners

by Helloooo 1st on Jun 29, 2007 7:17 PM PDT up reply actions  

I think we need to start cleaning house

and I think Beane needs to take a step back and look at what he's done in regard to some of the contracts he's handed out.

We need to try to deal, if only to have other teams take some salary off of us, some of our large contracts that are not producing.

Kotsay either needs to prove he's healthy (IE: start hitting damnit) or he needs to be dealt. (And Geren needs to stop batting him 2nd!).

Loaiza thus far has been a bust, but I am not sure we can get anything for him unless he enters the rotation and pitches well for a month before the deadline.

Kendall has to go. Period. He refuses to take the backup role, and the team refuses to stop playing him. Suzuki should be getting 4 of the 5 starts, not 1 out of 10. Even if he sucks, he'll still be better than Kendall. And he can get ready for next year.

Piazza, if he comes back, will either be the Backup Catcher/Every Other Day DH, or needs to be dealt as well. He isn't hitting that well in the AL, but still has the aura of being able to.

Bobby Crosby, at the time, was a decent signing. It was the typical Beane contract: signing young, good players to long term cheap contracts to cover their Arby years. It worked with almost all the players he's done it with, but there had to be at least one where it didn't. Crosby is that, he can't adjust to Major League pitching. He either needs to be dealt, or sent down to AAA to relearn how to hit. Even Scutaro, who's having a horrible year offensivly, is doing better than Crosby.

Speaking of Scutaro, its an unpopular idea on AN, but maybe we should try to deal Scoot while he has his clutch reputation? The Reds/Nats proved last year that backup players have trade value (also see: Tigers acquiring Neifi Perez). And we have several players in AAA that can fill his role. That, or we can trade Crosby and use Scutaro as our everyday SS till we find a replacement.

by Zonis on Jun 29, 2007 12:10 PM PDT reply actions  

Nice thought But ...

My guess is that all of the players listed have very little trade value at this point.  I think the A's are pretty much in the position to let them play and evaluate for next year. Can we win with them, what options do we have... No one is going to pick up Kotsay until he starts hitting, same with Kendal and Piazza... now if they start hitting then you could deal them now we would have to give them away.  Of course if they start hitting we might just find ourselves back in the race.  But, I do not see teams being dumb enough to take our over priced players unless it is at a severe discount.

ogallalabob

by ogallalabob on Jun 29, 2007 3:57 PM PDT up reply actions  

You cannot rate a group of understudies!
This team, to be where they are with this many injuries, has overacheived by a long shot. Let's get back our #1 and #3 starter, 2 setup men, closer, bench players before we start moaning about our record. When fully healthy we will make our run, it will not matter how many teams are ahead. You think the Angels will play at this clip all year? They have peaked too early. Everyone relax!

by incarnate on Jun 29, 2007 1:00 PM PDT reply actions  

Is Loiaza a #3 starter?

Not trying to pick nits. (Besides, the whole pecking order theory of starting pitching can be silly.)

Loiaza > DiNardo
Harden > Kennedy
Street > Embree > Flores
Duke > ....
So yes, getting our pitching health will get us half way there.    The hitting, we're stuck with.  (Well, Kotsay should get better. )

by MobiusKlein on Jun 29, 2007 1:19 PM PDT up reply actions  

Is Harden a #1?
I meant projected coming into this season. Loaiza in the #3 role has a ripple effect such that we see DiNardo coming out of the bullpen instead of Colby Lewis. We see Embree instead of Jay Marshall. With Healthy Duke/Calero/Street game is over after 6.
The A's losses of late has more to do with pitching rather than offense. I guarantee we could have sluggers at every position and they would be rendered weak in the playoffs (except for the Steroid happy Angels of 2002. serious- look at those guys on tape!). I'll take pitching/defense every time

by incarnate on Jun 29, 2007 1:30 PM PDT up reply actions  

The most obvious need is CF.

Kotsay isn't anything close to a sure thing next year, and Robnett/Herrera don't seem to be the answer.  Powell or Suzuki and pitching for an advanced CF prospect makes sense to me.  Say Powell/Suzuki + Gaudin for Jay Bruce or Jose Tabata, for example.

On the issue of a blockbuster trade by your definition, Beane did trade Hudson, Mulder, Grieve, Berroa,Lilly, Pena, Bonderman, Cotts and Harang among others who weren't expensive yet.  Hudson was the only one who was even within a year of free agency.

by WaddellCanseco on Jun 29, 2007 1:00 PM PDT reply actions  

I see Denorfia in CF next year

or maybe Snelling.

"...but we're also always open to hearing about other sandwiches if it can make our lunch better." -- Nico, channeling Billy Beane

by iglew on Jun 29, 2007 1:51 PM PDT up reply actions  

snelling's already hurt, in the '08 sense

Just transferred to the 60-day DL. I suspect we'll see more of Piazza next year than we will of Snelling.

But just because something can be plotted on an X and Y axis does not make it the whole truth. @('.')@

by monkeyball on Jun 29, 2007 2:02 PM PDT up reply actions  

I'm afraid you're right

I like Snelling's talent and his personality, but it's really hard to expect that he will be healthy for more than brief periods.  You wonder if it is time for him to try some radical surgery like microfracture or whatever Ordonez got.  At this point, what does Snelling have to lose?

I'd like to eat my lunch, but Billy just kicked me out of my office.

by BlameChannel53 on Jun 29, 2007 2:56 PM PDT up reply actions  

I don't think those fit my definition

Huddy and Mulder were traded before they walked for more money, and netted greater gains than just letting them walk would have.

Grieve and Pena were cut bait.

Bonderman and Cotts were sold as prospects.

Harang was (rightly or wrongly) deemed second-rate and shipped out. Lilly, sorta-kinda likewise, but more that Beane bought him low and sold him high.

Berroa ... I don't recall the details of the transaction.

The only guys you listed who would qualify as "blockbustery" deacquisitions would be Huddy and Mulder, and I very specifically excluded them from my definition. Everyone else was marginal to the roster at the time.

But just because something can be plotted on an X and Y axis does not make it the whole truth. @('.')@

by monkeyball on Jun 29, 2007 2:01 PM PDT up reply actions  

Oh, and bat Chavez no higher than 7th

ForEVER! He has the skills but not the mental makeup to be great

by incarnate on Jun 29, 2007 1:01 PM PDT reply actions  

yes please
Go A's!!!! Mike Scioscia is a fat tub of lard

by 3Chavy3 on Jun 29, 2007 2:02 PM PDT up reply actions  

Kotsay to the Marlins

The Marlins need a CF bad and Kotsay is still loved here in South Florida.  The Marlins have a lot of you middle relievers that throw gas.  Cheap contracts too.

by BMWK100 on Jun 29, 2007 1:44 PM PDT reply actions  

I think the A's can wait it out on pitching but

They need to do something on offense I really don't know what they can do right now.  I like the move bringing Suzuki up he looks real nice so far, maybe bring Barton up and let him get his feet wet against major league pitching.  Other than that we still have large holes to fill on offense the major ones being in the infiled Crosby has been dissapointing, Chavy has been dissapointing DJ looks great and then looks like shit basically this infield with say except Mark Ellis has been a complete disaster for the A's.

Go A's!!!! Mike Scioscia is a fat tub of lard

by 3Chavy3 on Jun 29, 2007 1:55 PM PDT reply actions  

Lose Dan Johnson, Bring up Barton

Bench DJ except for PH duties: he is less than average defensively and is just another average/below average 1B ofensively. Let the Daric Barton era begin, he can't possibly be worse than DJ.

Also- I heard he was taking grounders at 3B- let's trade Chavvy for a 6 pack of Fresca (very refreshing on hot days), move Landon powell to 1B and Daric Barton to third.

by incarnate on Jun 29, 2007 3:53 PM PDT up reply actions  

I also love Fresca it is refreshing
although I am not so keen on the Landon Powell thing, Barton will happen soon I believe.
Go A's!!!! Mike Scioscia is a fat tub of lard

by 3Chavy3 on Jun 30, 2007 2:07 AM PDT up reply actions  

A big "what, what" to my pals who voted

"Fire Snail Snitches!"

Quiddich should be played at a fast pace.

Go Slytherin Athletics.

Green Hulk Fists

by oaklandSMASH on Jun 29, 2007 2:01 PM PDT reply actions  

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