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Top 9 Prospects!

While reading through my dog eared Baseball Prospectus and checking out all the VORP's, PECOTA's, MLVR's, and EQAVG's (never figured that one out), I came upon Travis Buck's PECOTA projection. They had Travis Buck as being comparable to Jeremy Giambi.  What the......?!?!   Now, I love my Baseball Prospectus, and I realize that they can not be correct all the time, but, whatever happened to good ol' intuition? It seems Baseball America uses various leaps of faith when they come up with their top ten prospects each year.  They had Trevor Cahill in the top then this year and he had barely pitched! They also had Craig Italiano, Jermaine Mitchell, Matt Sulentic, Javier Herrera, and Richie Robnett (was he on a list?) on top ten lists....and what the heck have they done? Baseball America will habitually rate someone highly and get everyone all hyped up.  For a while it seemed that people on this board were always writing about Jermaine Mitchell and his small sample size of great statistics at Vancouver.  Now look at him.  Just horrible. The same goes for Matt Sulentic and Vince Mazzaro.  And, why does it always have to be a "top ten" list of prospects? So, let me share with you my top NINE prospects...

Star-divide

  1.  Gregorio Petit.  Brad Ziegler says that Petit is the "most spectacular defensive player he has seen on a baseball field".  If Brad says it is so, then I am on board. Plus, it doesn't hurt that Petit is hitting great at AA and he is a leadoff hitter. Watch out Bobby Crosby, if you keep that OBP below .300 then you are going to be replaced by a more dynamic player......Petit!
  1.  Brian Snyder.  Snyder has been languishing at the AA level for a while now and he has been a big "disappointment", but this year he has converted to second base and he is ripping the ball to a tune of .312/.418 with an OPS of .947.  He is 25 years old, but as a second basemen his numbers are fantastic.  He could take over second right now.
  1.  Dan Meyer.  Tonight Meyer has pitched five innings against Albuquerque and has struck out nine batters. He is back and he will make us forget JoKe, er, I mean Joe Kennedy.  This is a leap of faith, but I don't care. His performance tonight has me stoked.
  1.  Landon Powell.  I know, I know, he is a fatso. Everyone writes this about him. But, he is down to 220 pounds.  Everyone is against this guy, but here is a catcher who can actually throw runners out at an amazing rate.  Doesn't that sound refreshing? Isn't that scintillating to hear that while we witness everyone on this planet run on Jason Kendall?  Plus, Powell has a good batting eye and has some pop. It just FEELS like he should be a great player.  I don't care that he is batting around .220 at AA.  I like Powell over Suzuki because everyone is rooting for Suzuki and this is a contrarian list.  Suzuki gets more than his fair share of positive press.
  1.  Michael Madsen.  The A's have a scary lack of pitching talent in the minors. But this Madsen has been doing some amazing stuff at AA.  He is only 6' and 160 lbs.  But so was Tim Hudson.  Now, I don't know how hard Madsen throws, but he is striking out more than a batter an inning, not giving up hits, nor serving up the homerun ball.  Also, his numbers are similar to Tim Hudson's when Hudson was at AA.  Coincidence?
  1.  Porno Tadano.  I can't remember his real first name, but who cares?  He is old at 27 years, but he throws an eephus pitch for gawd's sake! Check out his stats at AA and AAA this year. Those are some good numbers! He was in gay porn in college and had the cajones, literally and figuratively, to then play professional baseball and deal with the humiliation.  I can't wait for him to be a successful middle reliever for the A's.  What a story.
  1.  Donnie Murphy.  He came from the Royals of all teams.  He was ripping the cover off the ball at AAA this year.  He is our utility man of the future when Scutaro eventually leaves.  The success of Donnie Murphy will make the Royals seem even more like chumps.
  1.  Jason Perry.  I know, I know, we have enough outfielders and Perry's defense apparently really sucks.  But, you can not overlook an OPS of over .920 at both AA and AAA, even if he is 27 years old.  Jeez, Billy went out and got Snelling, Cust, and Denorfia who are all over 25.  What's the concern?
  1. Brad Ziegler.  He is going to be a middle reliever for the A's in the near future.  I just feel it.  He is going to be the second coming of Chad Bradford.  Just Watch!  There has to be some good karma for Ziegler for taking the time to answer fans questions on Athletics Nation on a regular basis.

Now, some of the usual suspects are off this list.  I just think that Jason Windsor doesn't have the velocity to be more than a sixth starter.  Daric Barton is all average and no power a la Sean Casey.  Richie Robnett is a whiff machine.  Javier Herrera get a lot of hype, but what has he really done except run through an outfield fence and take steroids?  I still like Pennington, he is starting to come around.  Jermaine Mitchell has three doubes and one homerun in 165 at bats.  That is Jason Kendall territory.

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What about the Hawaiian Punchout?

Shane Komine?

DL Team! Please disband and come back soon!

by OaktownRajah on May 31, 2007 11:27 PM PDT reply actions  

When he did really well at the Arizona Fall...

League about two years ago I thought he was going to be something special, but he is really bad this year. I couldn't fit him on my list, even if he does have a cool nickname.

by pedoman on May 31, 2007 11:32 PM PDT reply actions  

nice post

but please include lots of stats for everyone so i don't have to look them up when im feeling lazy.  

by Hawaii FO on May 31, 2007 11:35 PM PDT reply actions  

Awesome List

I really enjoyed your picks and share in your optimistic spirit on some of these abnormal choices.

by SwisherSweet on May 31, 2007 11:36 PM PDT reply actions  

Btw

Brad Ziegler is the man.

by SwisherSweet on May 31, 2007 11:36 PM PDT reply actions  

Baseball Prospectus's list is made

on the most state of the art computers, by the most ingeligent people you will ever meet.

by Zonis on May 31, 2007 11:46 PM PDT reply actions  

Where's the photo...

of when she answers the iron ringing on the desk?

"You may glory in a team triumphant, but you fall in love with a team in defeat."--The Boys of Summer

by alox on Jun 1, 2007 3:04 AM PDT up reply actions  

Prospect lists
I really feel prospect lists favor teams that block their prospects.  There are so many minor league teams in order to get noticed you have to put up big numbers for years.  

When you are with a team like the A's, and you are aggressively pushed through the system like Buck was you are never in any one place long enough to make an impression.

On the flip side if you treat you prospects like the Angels treated Brandon Wood and are left to hit 50 home runs in a league you are obviously too good for  you turn a lot of heads.

by Threepwood XX on Jun 1, 2007 12:04 AM PDT reply actions  

As far as a contrarian list goes...

...I agree with a lot of what you had to say.

What I disagree with is that you can say guys like Sulentic, Mitchell, etc are busts because they're having bad seasons this year.

Madsen, who you delight in today, had a pretty sorry season last year, yet look at him now. Ditto Powell, Petit has struggled at times because he thinks he's a power hitter, and Tadano was a major league pitcher for a while before his rapid (and continual) fall from grace. That it took demotion down two levels for him to find his fastball again is worrisome.

That said, there's no reason why your top prospects list shouldn't be as good as anyone else's. If there's one thing I've learned watching Oakland minor leaguers moving through the ranks, it's that sometimes the kid that just clicks and suddenly becomes a AAAA player can come from where you least expect it.

Can I get a witness, Marcus McBeth?

The Kendall Shift: 6 infielders and 2 catchers.

by Ozzz on Jun 1, 2007 12:41 AM PDT reply actions  

Yeah, you are right,

I actually want Sulentic and others to do well. I got all hyped up on them also, and then to look at their numbers now, while only a small sample size in the big picture, gets serious A's fans all stressed out.

by pedoman on Jun 1, 2007 7:43 AM PDT up reply actions  

Um, serious question here...
..is there something behind your AN nickname that should make me lock up my child?
The Kendall Shift: 6 infielders and 2 catchers.

by Ozzz on Jun 1, 2007 2:11 PM PDT up reply actions  

on a random note,about javier herrera

he sucked in april,but in may:

.333 .402 .600

glad to see that a least one of the low minors OF prospect seems to be turning it arround.

i mean sulentic is having a kendall like year at kane country,he's still only 19 so i'm not going to give up.

ALLEZ LES A'S!!!

by J Rod on Jun 1, 2007 7:30 AM PDT reply actions  

my dad and I were talking about this

and we came to the conclusion that he might be sent back to Short Season after the draft.

by Zonis on Jun 1, 2007 9:37 AM PDT up reply actions  

Jermaine Mitchell

April: .270/.378/.333/.712
May: .302/.385/.377/.763

and don't forget Moneypenny:
April: .250/.344/.346/.690
May:  .279/.382/.450/.832

by Zonis on Jun 1, 2007 9:41 AM PDT reply actions  

Moneypenny

Is moneyponey, Pennington?  and, why?

by Colorado Fan on Jun 1, 2007 11:40 AM PDT up reply actions  

Yes

And the reason should be obvious...

Yep. Warm and fuzzy... that's me.

by grover on Jun 1, 2007 3:32 PM PDT up reply actions  

He enjoys the company of English men?
"Their batters are patient to the point that it's annoying." -Ryan Franklin, Seattle Mariners

by Helloooo 1st on Jun 1, 2007 5:05 PM PDT up reply actions  

If you want to hype prospects who get no love

I've always loved Anthony Recker and Connor Robertson.  I was looking forward to Connor proving himself, but unfortunately all he proved was his true Athleticness (Athleticism?).  

"Loyal? I'm the most loyal player money can buy." - Don Sutton

by vignette17 on Jun 1, 2007 10:57 PM PDT reply actions  

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