Roster Thoughts
by NP15 on May 28, 2007 11:47 PM PDT
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PrintUp and down the organization, there are numerous roster decisions that will be made in the coming days and weeks. At the major league level, established starters are getting healthy and returning to the active roster. Down on the farm, a number of players are heating up and may deserve promotions.
Oakland A's:
-Outfield:
What happens when Kotsay and Bradley come off the disabled list? Clearly, Bocachica gets designated for assignment and goes back to Sacramento (assuming he clears waivers). My guess would be that Donnie Murphy gets optioned back to AAA to clear the second roster spot. However, that leaves us with 5 outfielders: Kotsay, Bradley, Swisher, Buck and Stewart.
In the beginning, there is probably enough playing time to go around as Kotsay will get regular days off and Buck's wrist/elbow can be given an extended rest to heal up. Eventually, this situation might prove too crowded. Buck, once healthy, needs to play every day. He's proven he can hit at the major league level in a big way, and sitting on the bench will only stunt his growth as a player.
Stewart is definitely the 5th outfielder in this group and will need to get accustomed to a drastically reduced role; besides, his sub-.700 OPS doesn't deserve to be leading the team in plate appearances.
-Pitchers
Duchscherer's return to the active roster means that someone from the group of Colby Lewis, Erasmo Ramirez or Ron Flores gets sent down. My bet is on the lefty Ramirez.
That said, I'm personally of the opinion that Calero needs a vacation on the 15-day DL. The guy is simply not getting the job done right now. I don't know if he's hurt or just struggling, but this might be a good time to get him right again.
Minor Leagues:
Brian Snyder: Snyder is killing AA and making a strong bid to be reinstated as a real prospect.... he is batting .311/.406/.538 for a .944 OPS. Already 25 years old, this is a make or break year for Snyder. A third baseman throughout his professional career until this season, which has seen him move to second base. However, with Kevin Melillo entrenched at the second baseman at Sacramento, is there room to promote him? A Snyder promotion would probably mean the release of J.J. Furmaniak.
Gregorio Petit: The 22-year-old defensive whiz has shown great improvement with the bat in 2007, batting .327/.378/.430 at AA Midland. His offensive stats have been even more impressive in May, sitting at .345/.427/.512 (.939 OPS). Now here's where things get complicated: Petit is probably a year young for his level, so he doesn't need to be promoted the way Snyder does. Furthermore, the Sacramento middle infield is already set with Donnie Murphy and Melillo (plus the possible addition of Snyder). But, there's another rising shortstop in the system who is knocking on the door for a AA promotion. You guessed it......
Cliff Pennington: The former 1st round pick is back and playing like a real prospect again. His poor April (.690 OPS) wasn't shocking considering his terrible 2006 and severe hamstring injuries. May has put Pennington back on the map, as he's hit .282/.385/.456 (.842 OPS) with an outstanding 18/10 walk-to-strikeout ratio. Pennington has the talent and tools to handle an aggressive mid-year promotion to Midland. Furthermore, going back to his home state of Texas could be an additional impetus for his re-emergence. I think you leave Pennington in Stockton until he gets his average up to the .290 range, but if he stays this hot you gotta bump him up and play him alongside Petit as soon as July 1st.
Other notes/thoughts:
• Daric Barton has started to show signs of life in AAA, recovering from a terrible April to hit .277/.409/.468 in May (.877 OPS). His plate discipline has been excellent as always, with an amazing BB/K ratio of 20/12. The power is coming around as well, with 7 2B, 1 3B and 3 HR's in the month. If Barton can bring his average up a little more, the walk rate and IsoP are looking quite good.
• Javier Herrera is another May resurrection story. Terrible in April with a .207/.293/.264 line (.557 OPS) after missing all of 2006. Back with a vengeance in May, batting .321/.398/.617 for a 1.017 OPS. A scouting report over at John Sickels' minorleagueball.com blog said he looks like a superstar, cannon arm and plus defense in center. One more month of mashing and I think he gets promoted to AA.
• Where is Snelling? There has been no news on him whatsoever, extremely strange considering his 15 days on the DL have passed. Joking aside, I think there's a real chance that he's actually dead. I'm worried.
• Provided that he gets some consistent rest (15-day DL?) when Kotsay and Bradley return, I sure as heck hope that Buck's wrist/elbow problems are given time heal up. The guy is a star in the making and will be a fixture in our outfield for the next 6 years. I see him as a .290/.380/.500 hitter, with the potential to hit .300 and knock out 25 homers.
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good news all around
The A's as system is definitely looking up, and the keep prospects are beginning to perform.
A few comments...
Herrera: If he makes it to AA this year and keeps his numbers up does anyone else see him making a Buck like jump and replacing Bradley? (Assuming Beane doesn't resign Bradley)
Catcher? Outfielder? Starting Pitching?
At catcher we have Kurt Suzuki who is a perfect fit for the A's style of hitting.
In the outfield we have a logjam even without Bradley. We have Buck, Kotsay, Snelling, and don't forget that that we acquired Chris Denorfia who should be healthy by 2008.
As for starting pitching we have Haren, Harden, Blanton, Gaudin, Kennedy, and Loaiza all locked up through 2008.
Barton also hasn't been hitting like he had been in past years though he has improved in the last few weeks. It could mean that he could need some time in AAA in 2008 before he makes the bigs. Keeping DJ is probably the best option for us right now since we can use him at DH or 1B depending on if Swisher plays OF or 1B in 2008. If Barton is MLB ready by 2008 then it would be a good idea to trade him, but I think the prospect we get in return would have to be a few years from the majors. Possibly a second baseman to replace Ellis after 2008, though Kevin Melillo is looking pretty good and Cliff Pennington could be moved to 2B if he continues to hit and Crosby keeps staying healthy and hitting well.
As of right, now I think we need some help in the bullpen. Street has been having a lot of health problems to be considered our faithful closer. Calero has been hit or miss probably due to health problems too. Jay Marshall is a good loogy for the pen, but he shouldn't bee used too frequently against right handers. Embree has been a strong arm out of the pen for us against both lefties and rightie and Duchscherer has been fairly health and consistently good in the pen, but we could use another young arm in here to help us out.
Replies:
As for the outfield, next year I don't believe there will be as big of a logjam as you think.
Swish: Could be moved to first.
Buck: A future left fielder due to his noodle arm. (Not that that's a bad thing)
Bradley: Free agent.
Kotsay: Even before his back surgery his .746 ops had him tagged as a 4th outfielder (especially on a power starved team like this one). Now that there is no guarantee that his defense will ever be the same after back surgery he's DEFENATLY a 4th outfielder until he proves otherwise.
Kielty: Free Agent
Snelling: Didn't have one extra base hit the entire time he was with us; we need more power. Also, he's more accident prone then Rich Harden in an alarm clock factory. With the power and injury issues he should be considered our 5th outfielder next year.
Denofia: Coming off TJ surgery and only one year of MLB experience--a huge question mark.
That gives us only Buck with a guaranteed spot, one to two starting outfielder starts up for grabs (depending on who's at first), Kotsay as out 4th, and Snelling as our 5th. Trading for a blue chip outfield prospect like Milledge to compete for a spot with Denorfia and possibly Herrera could only be a good thing.
Finally your rotation info is wrong. Kennedy is a free agent after this year and Beane is shopping Harden. Now there is no way Beane trades harden without getting a blue chip pitching prospect to replace him in return, but that still leaves Kennedy's spot open. Getting another pitcher to compete with Myers, Braden, and DiNardo, (all of whom are question marks), for the 5th spot would seem like an intelligent thing to do. Even if he didn't win the starting spot he could go to strengthen the pen.
by Threepwood XX on May 29, 2007 1:16 AM PDT up reply actions
Some thoughts
C: we have a lot of depth among catching prospects, at least a couple of whom have a real shot at developing into big leaguers. While BB should never pass up a chance to improve, I suspect he could get more bang for his buck elsewhere. I would look for him to add a vet (or resign Kendall) to tutor the youngsters for a year.
OF: expect Denorfia to be given every chance to earn a job next year. TJ isn't really a big deal for position players, so a full recovery is likely. He's done big things in the minors and held his own through 160 PAs in the bigs. We do have a rather glaring hole in CF, since we definitely should not be counting on Kotsay's back ... but if Herrera keeps looking like he's looking, we may just be looking for a Kenny Lofton type of short term solution.
Rotation: Kennedy's spot is Loaiza's spot. We could always use more depth, future talent in the rotation, but we don't have an obvious immediate need here.
I've seen that said about Buck before
and it doesn't equate with what I've seen from him. His arm isn't Milton Bradley's or Mark Kotsay's, but it's league-average. It's certainly not a Shannon Stewart arm, who's practically in Johnny Damon territory.
If Cust stays hot?!?
He's definitely not hot anymore.
but he's not cold either....
don't discount his walks...
by The Pilots Dared Me To Die on May 29, 2007 2:33 PM PDT up reply actions
why trade the guy leading the team in AVG?
a bird in hand is worth two in the bush, why not keep the guy who's batting over .300 considering we dont have many in Oakland who do. Lets see what kind of a player he turns into in a few more years rather than get rid of him for maybes. he can get hot and carry a team a few times a year and his D is good enough. I dont think Barton is good enough
to outplay DJ for a few more years at best.
by Hawaii FO on May 30, 2007 9:44 PM PDT up reply actions
great analysis
love the diary.
I think it's a huge numbers game when you look at everything realistically, as you're leaving out a few key ppl.
Getting Bradley and Kotsay back this week to the OF will be a shot in the arm, but that also leaves us with (healthy) Swisher, Stewart and (kind of) Buck. Now I understand a lot of juggling can be done, but I think the person who really gets lost in the number crunch here is Cust. It's really starting to look like his MO is true: he can hit fastballs and draw walks, but offspeed stuffs? Out of the question. If he gets demoted that clears the way, temporarily, to shuffle DJ and Swish at 1B/DH.
Of course, problems arise again with a healthy Piazza and a healthy Kielty (no way he'll settle for being a 5th OF), but those problems can be dealt with later.
With RE to pitching, well, getting a healthy Loaiza back would be nice, and a healthy Duke would be even better. Flores, Ramirez and Lewis have to be the first candidates to go to the minors, just because they all belong there.
I think the first 3 sent back are Bocachica, Lewis and Ramirez (for Kotsay/Bradley/Duke), and that Murphy will stick around for a bit longer.
Just an assumption.
Snelling
When Snelling is healthy, does he have a spot on the team?
- Haren
- Blanton
- Gaudin
- Kennedy
- DiNardo (Loaiza)
- Calero
- Marshall
- Ramirez (Duchcherer)
- Flores (Street)
- Witasick
- Embree
- Lewis (DiNardo)
- Kendall
- Melhuse
- Johnson
- Ellis
- Crosby
- Scutaro
- Chavez
- Murphy (Bradley)
- Bocachica (Kotsay)
- Swisher
- Stewart (Snelling? Is Snelling potentially a better 4th/5th outfielder than Stewart?)
- Buck
- Cust (Piazza)
And I know it's been talked ad naseum, but can you send a guy down (Cust) when his OPS is over a 1,000? Regardless in how many at bats he has?
It will be interesting to see what happens to say the least.
Cust
by Threepwood XX on May 29, 2007 1:30 AM PDT up reply actions
Cust will go to the bench
You heard it here first - his OPS won't be over 1.000 when Piazza is ready.
And Piazza won't catch. Others have shone the flashlight on his ghastly defensive numbers, and some of us caught a glimpse before the number scurried under the fridge.
No, for all that I love what Cust has done for us, I believe, and I believe the A's believe, that the better bet for 3+ months of offensive production at the DH spot is still Piazza. Cust will get his share of pinch hitting opportunities.
by matthias on May 29, 2007 6:55 AM PDT up reply actions
Cust
So, is Cust a 6th OF / DH? Kotsay, Bradley, Swisher, Buck, Stewart, Cust?
I think Melhuse could be sent down in order to make room for Jack Cust. That means Piazza is C2 behind Jason Kendall.
by Colorado Fan on May 29, 2007 8:17 AM PDT up reply actions
Let's not forget Kielty.
He's gonna be back in the fray at some point.
Can you say logjam?
At this point, who cares about Kielty?
It looks like he'd be in a fight with Stewart for the 5th OF role.
Well, we should care.
Even if only as a trade.
Keitly has no upside neither does Kotsay.
i would rather put in people who can improve on what they have done in the past and K and K just don't seem to be those guys to me
by Hawaii FO on May 30, 2007 9:58 PM PDT up reply actions
If you dislike players with no upside,
perhaps you should retract this post.
I'm not down on Stewart like everyone else
he hit over .300 in May and His UPSIDE is that he can hit over .300 for the year and lead the team in runs and can be or is the best leadoff hitter for our team which has few options there.
Ya he has no power but with K and K you get no power; no chance to hit .300, no chance to lead the team in runs and nothing special they can do that anyone else couldn't do.
by Hawaii FO on Jun 1, 2007 2:18 PM PDT up reply actions
Depends on who is still injured
And who is yet to become injured.
With the current trend, somebody will be limping. We'll just have to see who it is.
Loaiza to have knee surgery
He'll be out for another four to six weeks. Snelling is alive enough that he could be going on a rehab assignment. Street might start throwing soon.
It's kind of depressing that the whole A's notebook in the Chronicle is about injuries. But at least there's some good news.
Cust Fading Fast
I appreciate what Jack Cust has done for the A's over the past month, but I'm not sure if he has staying power once everyone is healthy.
Over the last week or so, his numbers have been awful. There are a lot of holes in Cust's swing, not to mention he has no defensive position. I think we are all beginning to see why this guy has spent the last 10yrs in the minors.
I hope Cust proves me wrong and adapts, but I don't see the purpose of keeping him as 5th outfielder/pinch hitter/part-time DH.
by athleticsBB4life on May 29, 2007 8:04 AM PDT reply actions
I agree
Even while he had that amazing run I cautioned that the Cust anointment should wait until we see how he adjusts to the pitching adjustments. This past week I've noticed that on several occasions he looked at called third strikes with RISP, when he probably should have been at least fouling off those close pitches.
Unless he shows a reason to keep him once Piazza returns I doubt the A's waste a roster spot on him. You certainly don't need two DH's on the roster. Any of the extra outfielders should be able to DH and pinch hit from time to time.
Cust has trade value.
Excellent diary
One thing you mentioned that I was considering writing my own diary about: next year's 2b jam. With the way Ellis is hitting, and the way Murphy, Melillo, Snyder, MoneyPenny, and Petit are developing, I think it probably means Ellie won't be with the team (whether his option is denied or whether he is traded) in 2008. I think the best solution next year would be a platoon of Murphy and Melillo. They are both young-ish (24,25) and here are the stats:
Murphy v LH: .559/.590/.971/1.560 (!)
Melillo v RH: .297/394/.543/.937
Snyder would move to AAA and if he hits there he could make things real interesting.
On a side note, how come none of our second basemen in the minors can get the usual nickname (Melilly? Snydy? Murphy-y? Petity?)?
Also, on Snelling, I think the power outage is SSS. He only twice before this year had slugged under .400 although Tacoma in 2006 is worrying.
Way too early to worry about 2B in '08
Murphy's got about a month's worth of stats, let's see what happens when he gets back in the line-up. I love Melillo but his K's have gotten a little out of hand in May.
Snyder? He rages against the dying of the light.
Calero...
I really lobbied hard on this site and other sites for Kiko to get traded during this past off-season. I've always felt that he got by more on smoke and mirrors than actual dynamite stuff, especially since he relies so heavily on a slider of which he does not have consistent command.
He also just hit his arby years this year, is on the wrong side of 30 and thanks to a couple of solid years had great perceived value this off-season. Beane probably hesitated to move him because of the Duke's pereniall questionable health status, but even so, what if we could have traded Kiko for Denorfia and kept McBeth, who could be making outs for us right now instead of Cincy, and saved ourselves a million bucks to boot!?
Taj, I couldn't agree more ...
Calero has crappy stuff ... always has. He has an OK fastball and a slider that moves too much for his own good. He can't control it most of the time, and hitters can sit on it if they can foul off a 90 mph fastball. Marcus McBeth, on the other hand, may just be the next coming of Joe Nathan. I thought he was the most promising minor leaguer in the whole organization.
OF
is not really an issue.
OF, 1b, DH are essentially interchangeable as far as PT goes on this team (thanks to Swish). That effectively leaves us with 5 positions for 7 guys, which is plenty. If Cust finds a happy medium and shows he deserves ongoing playing time, there will be a crunch when Piazza returns ... but that's assuming everyone stays healthy, so ...
Also, there is almost no way Buck slugs .500 while hitting 25 or fewer HRs. To reach an Iso of .210 while hitting 25 homeruns, he'd also have to hit 50 doubles and 4 triples (Assuming 625 ABs), which is possible, but unlikely.
The 2008 Roster as I see it
looks like it could be something like this:
C1 Kurt Suzuki
1B Daric Barton
2B Kevin Melillo
3B Eric Chavez
SS Bobby Crosby
LF Travis Buck
RF Nick Swisher
CF Chris Denorfia
DH Dan Johnson
C2 Adam Melhuse
OF Chris Snelling
IF Marco Scutaro
IF Donnie Murphy
OF Jack Cust
SP Dan Haren
SP Rich Harden
SP Chad Gaudin
SP Joe Blanton
SP Esteban Loaiza
RP Huston Street
RP Justin Duchscherer
RP Alan Embree
RP Kiko Calero
RP Lenny DiNardo
RP Shane Komine
Free Agents:
Milton Bradley
Joe Kennedy
Jason Kendall
Bobby Kielty
Traded:
Mark Kotsay
Mark Ellis
Optioned:
Jay Marshall
3 Rookies?
Doesn't seem likely, but you never know. I'd say there's more a chance Murphy is the starting 2nd baseman over Mel. Johnson should probably play 1B over Barton. Kotsay might be a good trip to trade if his back holds up, but I'm not sure we'd get much for Ellis.
In any case, that lineup doesn't exactly scare anyone, so we'll have to dominate with pitching again.
the idea is to take the idea above
of platooning Murphy and his obsene vs LHP splits and Melillo's good vs RHP splits.
They won't play DJ over Barton at First Base all the time because they see Barton as the heir apparent and don't want to confine him to DH. They might platoon them between DH and 1B though.
What happens when harden shatters?
Are you putting DiNardo in the rotation and Marshall in the pen?
by designatedforassignment on May 29, 2007 11:25 AM PDT up reply actions
trading DJ
I like the idea now. Before this season I didn't, because I thought he was a big question mark and wouldn't be worth much in trade. Now he's got enough of a record that it seems likely the eye thing really was a problem and he really is a pretty good hitter (albeit with mediocre defense). That being the case, I think he's got trade value.
He's got value on the team, too, but not as much. I think it would be good to stabilize the outfield with players other than Swish and make 1B Swish's regular position. With Cust and Piazza still around, I don't see a long-term future at DH for Johnson (though it makes a lot of sense to put him at DH for a few weeks before trading him). Maybe someone else will analyze which other teams could really use a player like DJ (or has Grover already done that?), but I think DJ probably has more value for another team than he does for us, and that suggest trade to me.
In general, I don't agree with the idea of trading for a "blue-chip" player. The casual fan loves seeing a big name acquired, but I don't think you get real value that way unless there's a position where you're really really hurting. I don't think we're at that point, not even in the bullpen, which I think is where we're hurting most. Everywhere else, I think we've got plenty of guys juggling around in the system and it's just a matter of getting back the injured ones and seeing who pans out among the prospects. I think our best trading goal right now is to load up our farm system with promising guys who won't be ready before 2009.
I like keeping Cust on the team. Even if Piazza is the regular DH, Cust can get occasional starts at DH or LF, and I think he's a great guy to have come off the bench. I think Cust is very well-suited for situational pinch-hitting. In particular, you can save him for the reliever who has nothing fancy but gets by with a sizzling fastball. Or you can use him in a situation where the three-true-outcomes tendency is a good fit, like if we're a couple runs behind and we've got a slow guy at first base. Or if the pitcher is struggling with control and you want a hitter with a really good eye to get the walk or take advantage of the one bad mistake pitch.
So trade DJ and keep Cust?
DJ has raked since coming of the DL and isn't the heir apparent to Chris Shelton. For this you gotta think to the future. While Barton will certainly be on the team next year and so there is only going to be one DH/1b position open for starting (that is if you leave swish in the of) DJ would be better to fill one of those roles because:
- He is under team control. Both Piazza and Cust are going to be FAs. Piazza is costing us $8m this season and retaining him will probably be in the same ballpark. Cust is also going to be a FA and therefore if he preforms with any consistency for the rest of the year will probably cost a couple million dollars if we try to retain him.
- He hasn't hit a cliff like Cust. Granted last years performance was pretty terrible but his well documented eye condition explains that and he seems to regained the form that got him named to the 2005 all rookie team ahead of Ryan Howard.
- DJ is the new Hatty.
Why should we keep Cust again? Because he has a good eye and can hit a fastball? DJ has a good eye too (now that his eye condition has cleared) and being able to hit a fastball is only good if the other team throws you one.
Keep DJ trade Cust or Piazza
by designatedforassignment on May 29, 2007 11:23 AM PDT up reply actions
Cust
Can't we keep Cust on the 40-Man Roster, and send him to AAA-Sacramento? Cust could be a cheap DH option next season.
by Colorado Fan on May 29, 2007 11:33 AM PDT up reply actions
He's a FA no matter what.
He was signed as a minor league free agent in the winter of '04, which made his contract situation year to year going forward.
Really?
by Threepwood XX on May 29, 2007 12:50 PM PDT up reply actions
I'd assume ...
that the A's keep releasing Bocachica because they don't want to pay him an ML salary for the all but three weeks a year he doesn't spend on the ML roster
Cust
by Threepwood XX on May 29, 2007 12:47 PM PDT up reply actions
Im not 100% but
Cust having been signed as a minor league free agent on a one year contract would be a FA after the end of the year no?
by designatedforassignment on May 29, 2007 1:40 PM PDT up reply actions
DJ is better anyway
I am also of the belief that Cust, while a nice story, will go the way of Chris Shelton rather that a return to glory making a trade of DJ a bad idea.
by designatedforassignment on May 29, 2007 1:44 PM PDT up reply actions
in an article a couple of weeks ago
Cust was quoted as saying that after this year he could opt to leave for Japan. Something to do with six years bouncing back and forth between MLB and triple A. I'm not clear on the details of how this works.
It's pretty simple.
He's a free agent, he can do whatever he wants.
NO
That would be true if he stayed in the minors all year. Once he was added to the 40-man roster he's subject to the same reserve clause as every other major league player - he's eligible for arbitration after three years of major league service time, and free agency after six. He had just over 1 year of service time before this year, so he wouldn't be a free agent until after 2011.
He is, however, out of options, which means he would have to clear waivers to be sent down to the minors (and would become a minor league free agent again after the season, even if he did clear waivers and accept a minor league assignment this year). This could give the A's a tough decision when (if) other players get healthy.
I'd certainly trust ...
anything andeux says on the topic over anything I'd say ...
silly idea, but...
can't we just cut out the middleman and trade Cust to Japan for a prospect or two?
Cust could be the greatest gaijin slugger in Japan since Randy Bass, Bob Horner, and Tuffy Rhodes...
by The Pilots Dared Me To Die on May 29, 2007 2:44 PM PDT up reply actions
not that I want to get rid of him...
but if we have to... hmm...
by The Pilots Dared Me To Die on May 29, 2007 2:45 PM PDT up reply actions
Devo
You write some of the best stuff on here, don't sell yourself short.
by notsellingjeans on May 29, 2007 2:50 PM PDT up reply actions
Excellent, thank you
Andeux, do you know a website that lists whether players still have options left, and how many they have?
I realise I can figure it out, but it's a pain in the ass to re-trace steps on when a guy's contract was purchased, how many minor league stops he's made, etc.
by notsellingjeans on May 29, 2007 2:49 PM PDT up reply actions
Options
No, I don't know of a site that has that. Cot's Baseball Contracts and MLB4U both have contract details and service time, but not details on options.
Re. your new diary, though: I think I've read that Snelling, Cust, and DJ are all out of options, so I agree with you that Buck could end up being the surprising (but temporary) odd man out soon.
You're right on all three
I had forgotten that. I'll make the change.
by notsellingjeans on May 29, 2007 3:10 PM PDT up reply actions
WHY NOT D.F.A. STEWART INSTEAD?!?
< /mikeA >
could happen...
<grovels to Zeus>
FA
I may have been mistaken and I will grant that Cust will be under A's control until 2011. However that doesn't affect my argument that the A's would be wise to keep DJ over Cust. I think that when a larger sample size is considered DJ will hit better and DJ at first, Swish in the OF, and Barton as a DH is better defensively than Swish at first, Cust in the OF, and Barton as a DH.
by designatedforassignment on May 29, 2007 3:03 PM PDT up reply actions
Amen...
I like the "Johnson as cheap DH/backup 1B" idea. Money not spent on an overpriced aging DH is money spent elsewhere...
However, I think we should trade all of our fans that freak out when we lose a couple of games or propose radical restructuring even though our club has 11 injuries and is still playing .500 ball to St. Louis for an equal number of fans to be named later... St. Louis fans are the best!
by The Pilots Dared Me To Die on May 29, 2007 2:41 PM PDT up reply actions
Yes, trade DJ and keep Cust
On any team, some guys are going to be on the bench, and not all players are well suited to that role. (From the management point of view, I mean. Almost any player will prefer to start rather than sit on the bench, but some players do well on the bench nevertheless and others don't.) I like Cust on the bench. I don't like DJ on the bench. I think he's wasted there, and I think that making him the regular DH or regular 1B means not using the rest of our players optimally. That's why I think he could be more valuable to someone else than he is to us.
All of this assumes that we control Cust at major-league minimum through 2010. That's what Andeux said in another thread a few days ago and repeats in this thread now. I'm assuming Andeux is correct. If DFA is correct, and Cust is a FA at the end of the year, then that's very different.
Full year of Cust
What would you expect Cust to do over a full year compared to DJ? Also do you think a defensive arrangement with Cust in the OF and Swish at 1b is going to be better than one with Swish in the OF and DJ at 1b since Barton is our long term DH? How much of a difference in ability of a prospect to you expect if DJ rather than Cust is traded?
by designatedforassignment on May 29, 2007 3:07 PM PDT up reply actions
answering your questions
As I said, I like Cust off the bench. I see him as a decent and inexpensive player who could start in the OF occasionally, could start at DH regularly when we have an opening there or occasionally to sub for someone else, but most of all could be good off the bench. I would not expect Cust to be a regular starter all season long (though I wouldn't mind putting him in there for long stretches if necessary, due to injury or whatever), whereas I would definitely want DJ to be a regular starter.
I don't think Swish @ OF + Johnson @ 1B is significantly better defensively than Cust @ OF + Swish @ 1B.
I agree with you that Barton is likely to be a DH in the long run, though I suspect you see him getting there sooner than I do.
I think DJ is worth considerably more in trade than Cust, for pretty much all the same reasons you've been giving about how DJ is a much better player than Cust.
hmm...
maybe I'm off, but I would see a full season of Cust being something like .225 with 30 dingers and 125 walks...
Plus, he's brutal in the field...
by The Pilots Dared Me To Die on May 29, 2007 4:11 PM PDT up reply actions
That would actually be a decent season from Cust
keep in mind, his XBH percentage is extraordinary. So if he hits .225, a good chunk of those hits are good hits. And he's walking at least 125 times in that scenario, he's gonna post an OB of .350 or more.
With 30 homers to boot, and for 400 grand, that's production that this franchise can't afford to kick to the curb.
Cust will not be gone when people get healthy. He's shown too much for that to happen. Even in this slump, he's walked a ton, and he's led the league in pitches seen per plate appearance.
I think he's a logical candidate to consider replacing Piazza next year as the full-time DH, and at Cust's price, he has to be kept all year/offseason, just in case he proves capable.
They can't send him don, b/c he's out of options. So I think they should pretty much ride whatever slump he endures, if for no reason than he is currently their most attractive internal option to DH next year.
by notsellingjeans on May 30, 2007 4:49 AM PDT up reply actions
Are you sure Cust is out of options?
He signed a minor league deal with the Padres, his contract was then purchased by the A's. I think that means he could be sent down again without exposing him to waivers. Then again, he had that out clause to run off to Japan.
Not that I think Cust should be sent down, just questioning the specifics of his contract.
No, not 100%
Devo mentioned that he was out of options in another thread; I'm trusting the word of Devo on that assertion.
Devo wouldn't let us down.
by notsellingjeans on May 30, 2007 2:25 PM PDT up reply actions
and just to clarify
I'm just pursuing my disagreement with DFA regarding trading DJ vs trading Cust.
I'm not saying we absolutely gotta get rid of DJ. I'm just saying I think the logic for trading him is there and I think a good deal could be had for him. But if there isn't a good offer, then I'm certainly not saying trade him anyway just to unload him. Keeping him could work well, too.
I think maybe the biggest difference between DFA's opinion and mine is that I'm much more eager than he is to get Swish out of the outfield and make him our regular 1B.
But as weak as our offense is...
Isn't it stronger when we can keep Swisher's bat in the OF?
For example, when Swisher is in CF, we are starting a CF who hits like a 1b. That's at least one position on the field where we are starting a player who hits much better than league average at his position.
We don't have very many of those. And when we start Swisher at 1b, we don't have someone comparable to DJ's offense, or even Cust's offense, that we can play in the OF in Swisher's stead.
A playoff team usually has at least a few positions where they start a player who hits better than league average for his position - it helps mask the positions where they are far below league average - like catcher for the A's.
I feel like moving Swisher away from the OF takes away that asset, even if it does reduce his injury risk.
by notsellingjeans on May 29, 2007 3:19 PM PDT up reply actions
Keeping him logic outweighs
lively debate which is awesome. mdl and I both agree that Swisher would make an awesome 1b (I think I remember Wash saying that he could eventually win a gold glove there a while ago). However, if you plan to bring barton up next year (which i think everybody concedes is going to happen) you must DH him. That means that in order for Cust to play he would be a PH or a LF. I am scared of Jack Cust playing the outfield on a regular basis! I think in my scenario Swish d in OF vs. Cust OF d is a greater increase that Swish 1b d vs. DJ 1b d. So even if DJ = Cust at the plate and I think DJ is better defensively DJ makes the team better (also having Swish in the OF allows Buck to play left where he is better suited). I think this difference is substantial and want to know how much better of a prospect mdl thinks we could get from DJ being traded and keeping Cust rather than the other way around.
by designatedforassignment on May 29, 2007 3:24 PM PDT up reply actions
my bad
should say i think DJ is better than cust offensively
by designatedforassignment on May 29, 2007 3:28 PM PDT up reply actions
not sure how much more clearly I need to say this
You ask "how much better of a prospect" I think we get for DJ than for Cust. You and I agree that DJ is better than Cust, and I would even go along with your claim that "this difference is substantial". I said I think DJ is worth more to another team than he is to us, but I don't think that's true of Cust. Therefore, it logically follows that I think the "how much better" in prospects we'd get is larger than the "substantial" difference between DJ and Cust themselves.
As for defense, I don't want Cust playing OF every day. I want him playing OF occasionally, DH often, and pinch-hitting a lot. Cust<Swish outfield defense would be an issue only occasionally. DJ<Swish defense at 1B would be a factor every day.</p>
I'm not convinced Barton is coming up in 2008. I think it's definitely possible, but I don't think it's a certainty by any means.
Uhh..
why is DJ better than Cust?
They are basically the same age and Cust has:
- better minor league numbers
- better major league numbers
- much higher upside
DJ is "substantially" better than Cust? That is really just crazy. And I say that as a DJ-for-playing-time advocate in the offseason.
Anywho, the real villain is SHANNON STEWART.
Given that there is substantial reason
to give DJ a mulligan for his 2006 -- it would be entirely fair to consider him a better bet going forward because:
- While their ages may be similar, DJ got to the Majors to stay after 4.5 years in the minors, Cust (assuming he is actually here to stay) took 10 years.
- While he might attribute it to boredom, the fact is, Cust's AAA numbers were good, but not great from 2002 through 2005. He was also in AAA from 2001 through 2007. DJ's AAA numbers are as good or better than Cust's -- his lower level numbers are less spectacular because he was fastracked through the system and was constantly making adjustments.
- DJ has more than three times as many career PAs as Cust -- and if you factor out his 2006 (which there is substantial reason to do, given his double vision), the remainder of his career numbers are better than Cust's.
- This is obviously subjective, but I would tend to disagree. DJ is a more complete player and, even if he does not walk as much, he controls the strikezone better, as evidenced by his greatly superior k/bb.
Talk of logjams with this team is crazy
By the way, why no love for Stewart? The guy put up a great May for a leadoff hitter. On base 4 out of 10 PA's - not his fault the middle of the order leaves so many on base.
I think it's still early
to plan for Barton to be a key part of 2008 plans. Of course we hope for the best, but whether he's at DH or 1b for the long term, those are premium power positions.
Not too many 21/22 year-olds have MLB-ready premium power.
He might need to spend an entire season, even most or all of '08 too, in AAA. And that would be just fine.
by notsellingjeans on May 29, 2007 3:14 PM PDT reply actions
Tying into your diary . . .
The best time to delay the start of a player's service time clock is at the beginning of his career, because it's hard to send a guy like Buck down when he is doing well in the majors, even if doing so would save the team money down the line. I am in no hurry to start Barton's clock when he is young, still learning to play a defensive position, and has yet to show that he can hit for the power necessary to make him a plus hitter at traditional power positions.
by BlameChannel53 on May 29, 2007 3:24 PM PDT up reply actions
Can we trade Kielty
What do people think we can get for the clown?
by designatedforassignment on May 29, 2007 3:26 PM PDT reply actions
Not much
He's an angry clown and those don't do well with families.
by mlleaimee on May 29, 2007 3:41 PM PDT up reply actions
Two additional questions
Does anyone have a range/defensive model that suggests that Dan Johnson is a bad defensive first baseman? In '06, David Pinto's Probalistic Model of Range suggested that Johnson actually outperformed Swisher defensively at first base, and acquitted himself well relative to the rest of the league. Our vision can deceive us - Swisher looks very smooth, and Johnson looks very awkward - but that alone doesn't mean Swish is a much better defensive 1b.
I'd just like to see a metric that says it and I don't have one available to me.
If Johnson is in fact a good defensive 1b, incapable of playing elsewhere, and good major league hitter, I think it's a slam dunk that you keep him there, and let Swisher's bat play in the OF.
Question #2: Does anyone have data on how many pitches Cust is seeing per at-bat? Considering his walk and K rate, I'd have to imagine he'd be among the league leaders if he qualified.
by notsellingjeans on May 29, 2007 3:43 PM PDT reply actions
Q #2:
4.43 p/pa, which would edge Brian Roberts (4.40) for the ML lead, if he qualified.
Q 1. don't know, BP has them both right around average. I think the largest reason for the belief is because Ron Washington said he was good ...
Good Point About DJ's defense
If DJ is pretty solid with the glove (which defensive metrics and A's management seem to conclude he is) and with his recent resurgence with the bat combined with his solid 2005 rookie performance, it should be a slam dunk that we should keep DJ around and send Cust to AAA or let him go if the roster crunch becomes that dire if need be.
While Cust will probably out-homer DJ over a full season, I have my doubts that he'd actually be a more valuable player over the entire season.
I don't really see Cust adapting to the apparently new way pitchers are attacking him...DJ seems to have adapted and is at least making an attempt to go the other way with pitches, which is probably why he's still batting above the .300 mark.
That ability to adapt combined his ability to play an at least adequate 1B should be enough to convince the skeptical that if push to came shove, we should keep DJ over Cust.
Zone Rating
It's available at ESPN. From what I can tell, the average 1B is around .865. Here are Johnson and Swisher's career rates:
Johnson: .851
Swisher: .810
That's just GBs and pop flies, so receiving throws isn't included. Every metric I've seen has Swisher as above average defensively in the outfield corners, so I see no reason to move him to 1B at this point.
Good read
I'm too far behind to jump in, but threads like this are why I love AN.
This is going to sound nuts....
But I'd seriously think about trading Daric Barton. He's a blue chip prospect who could net the A's a starting pitcher (imagine a trade with the Giants for Lowry, for example). The A's have several prospects in the outfield, Johnson at first base, and Swisher with a natural position at first base. I'm not worried about DH because there are always older players who can slot into the DH role in the next few years like Thomas and Piazza have been in the past two years. Any trade can backfire, and this one might, but you have to be willing to take the risk I think.
If the A's were to pick up a starter in June who they'll control for a few years, they can consider moving Windsor, Braden and Komine into relief roles in the majors. Right now that's what Geren is doing with Colby Lewis, but I think these guys are better bets.
by richwol on May 30, 2007 12:07 PM PDT reply actions
Barton for Lowry would be great!
and to think, all we gotta do to make that one happen is use mind control techniques already developed by the CIA and KGB to brainwash Brian Sabean into doing it. Should be easy! Bust out your black-ops manuals, kiddies, 'cuz we've got a new project for you!
by The Pilots Dared Me To Die on May 30, 2007 3:24 PM PDT up reply actions
All you'd have to do is...
Convince Sabean that Barton is forty years old and it's a done deal.
Seriously, the A's would almost certainly have to give up someone else (and that someone wouldn't be as big a deal), but it's not that much of a stretch: the Giants desperately need young hitting and they can put Ortiz back into the rotation.
by richwol on May 30, 2007 5:36 PM PDT up reply actions
Or we can hire the guy from the Twins
who voodoo'd Sabean into trading Nathan, Bonser and Liriano for A.J.P.
There's a lot of pressure on the Giants right now to get some hitting and a lot of pressure on Sabean to trade Lowry for it.
But I wasn't only thinking of Lowry. Jeez, if Barton is the top prospect in the A's organization, the team should be able to get some decent starting pitcher for him.
by richwol on May 30, 2007 5:43 PM PDT up reply actions
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