This isn't a "Kendall sucks" diary, but an attempt to see if his decline in performance is a trend or noise.  

I wasn't a big fan of the Kendall acquisition, but I was always hopeful that he would turn out to be a good player since we were stuck with his contract.  With his struggles this year, it got me to wondering whether it was simply a deterioration of skills for a catcher on the wrong side of 30 who's played a ton of games or simply a run of bad luck.    

One statistic that struck me was his strike out rate.  Let's take a closer look.  

If Kendall really is seeing his skills diminish, K rate seems like an obvious place for a decline to show.  He's a small guy who chokes up 1/3 and takes a "light" swing.  This should enable him to control the bat very well and avoid strike outs.  If he's suddenly striking out more, it could represent a decline in vision and/or hand-eye coordination.  So, the hypothesis is that if his K rate is trending upwards for a long time, it represents a decline in skills.

I snagged Kendall's K/AB stats for each month since 2002.  Since the monthly stats are so erratic, I used a 3-month moving average to show trends.  

Jason Kendall's K/AB Trend with A's
4-2005 N/A
5-2005 N/A
6-2005 8.1% - almost 14% his first month in the league with new pitchers, but adjusted
7-2005 4.9%
8-2005 5.9%
9-2005 5.3%
4-2006 5.8%
5-2006 6.2%
6-2006 9.5%
7-2006 10.7%
8-2006 10.0%
9-2006 10.1%
4-2007 9.8%
5-2007 12.4%
(if someone can figure how to get a graph of these on the web, please let me know)

The Bad:

1. There is a strong trend towards more strikeouts.  A short-term bump in strikeouts could represent "pressing" too much, but a trend over 2.5 years that shows one's K rate more than doubling is, well, troubling.  

The Good:

1. Jason's OPS has been fairly steady with the A's (aside from the nose dive due to this year).  Now granted, these numbers aren't great, but at least they're pretty consistent.  

Jason Kendall's OPS Trend with A's

4-2005 N/A
5-2005 N/A
6-2005 .654
7-2005 .699
8-2005 .650
9-2005 .670
4-2006 .628
5-2006 .733
6-2006 .680
7-2006 .683
8-2006 .714
9-2006 .730
4-2007 .661
5-2007 .537

2. Jason has had his K rate this high in the NL and managed to post some decent months.  In late 2002/early 2003, his K rate trended above .10 and he managed to post a decent 2003 and 2004 while dramatically dropping his K rate trend to below .05.  So, there's a glimmer of hope that he may come back.

3. Jason's walk rate was .0856 BB/PA in the NL and 0.077 BB/PA in the AL, which represents a decline of about 10%, but with all the noise in the statistics, I'm willing to overlook.    His rates have declined to Chone Figgins-esque levels this year, but even as of last September, he walked 12 times.  

So, the conclusion?  With his strikeouts up and his walks down, his value has clearly declined.  However, his walks should revert to their long-run average, which will help.  If he walks more and has less strikeouts, at least we know this - he won't hit into as many DP's!  If he can turn around his K rate like he did in 2003 and 2004, he might even warrant a one-year extension (at a much discounted price).  

(And if Kendall's wife finds this diary, please note that I had three good points and only one bad point....)