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First 2007 Prospect Ranking Thread

Now that we're almost a quarter of the way into the season, I think it's about time that we start re-evaluating our top 10 prospects given the new information contained in their 2007 performances. I also posted this analysis over on the A's scout.com message board (good board for prospect info and statistical analysis).

As a system, I'd have to say that 2007 has begun on a decidedly disappointing note. Underperformances have outweighed overperformances by our top prospects. Below is my updated organizational top 10. Dallas Braden and Travis Buck have been left off the list as they are currently on the big league roster.

Star-divide

  1. Daric Barton. Still top prospect, but luster is fading fast with another disappointing start in AAA. Batting only .222/.325/.375 for a .700 OPS. Patience and ISO are about as expected, but batting average is well below his prior track record. I'm still a believer, but Barton will need to elevate his performance over the rest of the year if he wants a spot on the 2008 roster. I think he'll end up hitting .305/.420/.460 for the year in AAA.
  1. Kurt Suzuki. Appears to be playing himself into significant playing time as the A's 2008 catcher. Batting .294/.370/.389 for a .759 OPS. Suzuki has demonstrated the ability to hit for average at every level of the minors during his professional career, although his BB/K has deteriorated thus far at 14/29 in 2007. In order to earn that starting catcher's job in '08, Suzuki will have to maintain a .300 batting average and .380-.400 OBP for the remainder of the year in AAA.
  1. Danny Putnam. Surprise call-up from AA acquitted himself reasonably in ML stint. Was injured for most of 2006 but excellent September performance, plus .327/.386/.615 line at AA Midland to open the 2007 season has boosted his stock. Although considered strictly a left fielder on draft day due to average speed and arm, Putnam has apparently improved enough defensively to be adequate at all three outfield spots. That flexibility increases his value as a prospect signficantly.
  1. Donnie Murphy. Six year minor league free agent was signed away during the offseason from the Royals organization, who drafted him out of high school. Murphy was rushed up to the majors at age 22 after putting up an .885 OPS at AA Wichita. Now, still only 24, Murphy is tearing up AAA at .348/.413./543 clip -- good for a .957 OPS. Although it's unlikely Murphy can sustain a .348 batting average with 25 strikeouts in 92 at bats, Murphy has hit for high average in the past (.313 at AA in 2005) and is showing excellent power so far this year (13 XBH in 92 at bats). With the flexibility to play 2B, SS or 3B, Murphy's 2007 performance has him looking like a potential steal and contributor on Oakland's 2008 roster.
  1. Jermaine Mitchell. 2006 draftee hit well in short-season ball last year, and is known for his plus defense in center field. Mitchell has started slowly on offense in 2007, hitting only .283/.377/.321 at Low-A Kane County. However, the Midwest League is traditionally a very difficult league for hitters and this year's cold weather certainly can't be helping. Just 22, Mitchell is still looking like a solid prospect if he can get his power stroke going and continue to get on base.
  1. Ryan Webb. Tall righty, drafted in 2005 out of high school, was yet to have shown any type of above average performance in professional baseball. 2007 has the makings of a breakout year for Webb in High-A Stockton, despite playing in the notoriously hitter-friendly California League. In 8 starts, Webb has posted a 3.99 ERA with outstanding component numbers: 45 K, 13 BB, 38 H, 5 HRA over 49.2 IP, good for a 1.03 WHIP.
  1. Gregorio Petit. Venezuelan defensive whiz is holding his own in AA at age 22, hitting a solid .293 through 123 at bats. Patience and power have been less than ideal, as Petit OBP/SLG is only .333/.333. His .666 OPS should move north as his power and patience move closer to his career averages. Petit is another prospect that I personally like, and I wouldn't be shocked if he finishes 2007 with a .290/.350/.450 line. A solid young prospect who is performing well for his age relative to his league.
  1. Kevin Melillo. Second baseman has shown excellent on-base skills out of the leadoff spot for AAA Sacramento, hitting .284/.382/.439 thus far in 2007. Melillo projects to be a .750-.800 OPS second baseman with strong on-base skills. The only problem is that Donnie Murphy has more defensive versatility and has outperformed him thus far in 2007 at a younger age (24 vs. Melillo at age 25).
  1. Brian Snyder. 2003 first round pick has been oft-injured over the last two years after a strong debut season in professional baseball. Knowing 2007 was a make-or-break year, Snyder has answered the challenge in a strong way, posting a .300/.388/.560 line over 100 at bats in AA Midland. Snyder has also added to his defensive versatility by learning second base in 2007. On the down side, Snyder is 25 years old and thus needs to mash all year. Nonetheless, if he can sustain this .948 OPS in 2007, Snyder might vault himself to the top of the A's organizational depth chart at second base.
  1. Dan Meyer. Despite two injury-riddled years of abysmal performance, Meyer seems to be healthy again following off-season shoulder surgery. The results have been positive through 3 starts at AAA Sacramento, with reports of Meyer's velocity being back in the low-90's. Certainly, Meyer's performance over the last two years does not merit this spot. Yet, his 1.88 ERA through 18.0 IP and 17/6 strikeout-to-walk ratio at AAA is enough to at least see if he can regain his prior form.

The next five, 11-15:

Jared Lansford (good ERA in 2006, but poor strikeout numbers and early 2007 injury are working against him)

Javi Herrera (injured all of 2006 and off to a slow start at the plate in 2007... easily a top 3 prospect if he gets the bat going)

Trevor Cahill (2006 draft pick is still an unknown)

Connor Robertson (reliever has done nothing but strike people out at every level of the minors)

Jeff Baisley (following up monster 2006 at low-A with a very strong start in '07 following two level jump to AA Midland)

Others receiving consideration:

Cliff Pennington (bat heating up)
Jason Windsor (horrible start to 2007)
Landon Powell (bat heating up, rising fast)
Brad Knox (impressive early results at AAA after promotion)
Myron Leslie (getting on base but no power)
Richie Robnett (still striking out too much)
Michael Madsen (impressive early results at AA after promotion)
Santiago Casilla (still performing decently at AAA)
Chad Boyd (not hitting)
Vin Mazzaro (been up and down, but young for High A)
Todd Johnson
Andrew Bailey
Jason Ray (injured)
Scott Deal (still no strikeouts)
Justin Sellers (not hitting)
Thomas Italiano (been injured, then been lit up)
Henry Rodriguez

0 recs  |  Comment 19 comments

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Ramblings of a Hopeful Man

Sep 2007 by Taj Adib - 10 comments

Comments

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Nothing to add, other than...

...you're right on the money, up and down.

The Kendall Shift: 6 infielders and 2 catchers.

by Ozzz on May 14, 2007 11:28 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

I agree as well

A couple more sleepers to keep an eye on: Anthony Recker, a catcher who put up monster numbers in college at Alvernia, had a solid season at Kane County last year and is off to a good start at Stockton - .284/.360/.474

Also I know they aren't prospects but check out what Colby Lewis and Luke Appert have done so far this season. Lewis is a 6'4 pitcher who has a 47/14 K-BB ratio at SAC so far. He's been around and has been roughed up in a few big league stints but he's still 27 and might be worthy of another look.

Appert has just been ridiculous at Stockton, he's always been a high on base percentage guy and so far this year his line is .362/.483/.560. He doesn’t have a position and is too old but still fun to follow.

The start that Matt Sulentic's gotten off to extremely discouraging. He's obviously very young but .165/.238/.191 in 115 AB's. Yikes!

by pinkfloyd on May 15, 2007 8:39 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

I wouldn't worry about Sulentic ...

he's 19 and has actually cut his strikeout rate from 1 every 4.9 ABs in 06 to one per 7.2. He's just adjusting to the higher level. He'll catch up quickly.

by devo on May 15, 2007 9:59 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

agree

all he needs is a month or two of solid hitting at Kane County to be where he should be.  It might be good that he is learning how to deal with an extended slump now at the low levels, when it still doesn't matter much.

Look at the tepid start Justin Upton had last year, it wasn't that big a deal.

by jakarta on May 15, 2007 11:20 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Recker can hit

But his play behind the plate has been fugly.

Yep. Warm and fuzzy... that's me.

by grover on May 15, 2007 12:07 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

It's true, but he's working on it.

And with that physique (and the towering bombs he tends to hit), he has the potential to be used as a 1B/DH down the line.

The Kendall Shift: 6 infielders and 2 catchers.

by Ozzz on May 16, 2007 10:18 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

McBeth

Any info on McBeth. If the Duke needs to go to the DL it might be nice to give him a shot.

by bloodshot13 on May 15, 2007 10:42 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

he was the PTBNL

in the Denorfia deal.  The Reds just called him up.

by fadedash on May 15, 2007 10:50 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I saw the play last year.

It was a heck of a production. Worth seeing.

The Kendall Shift: 6 infielders and 2 catchers.

by Ozzz on May 16, 2007 10:19 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

thanks for putting in the effort

to make this diary...

As long as the rankings are not meant to imply the value our organization (or other MLB orgs) places on these guys, than I'm down with this format.

For instance, Javi Herrera and Vince Mazzaro are currently worth more to the A's than say Petit or Snyder.  My read is that we would trade the later two before the former two.

other thoughts:

Is Mike Mitchell in extended spring training?  Or is he just on the shelf right now?

Jeff Gray is now a legit relief prospect for the A's.

Ziegler looks like he is doing quite well for himself, I wonder how different the evaluation process will be for him as a sidearmer versus an over the top thrower.  

Frank Martinez can hit.  And he's still reasonably young.

Pennington has been good for a month now, after that horrendous start he had.  Would love to see him put it together, he's one of those guys who has charisma  aplenty during workouts.

by jakarta on May 15, 2007 12:04 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Mitchel on the DL

Shoulder tendonitis as I recall.

Yep. Warm and fuzzy... that's me.

by grover on May 15, 2007 12:06 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Murphy on the DL btw

Left bicep injury.

Yep. Warm and fuzzy... that's me.

by grover on May 15, 2007 12:05 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

And more good news...

Italiano took a line drive to the noggin the other night.

Yep. Warm and fuzzy... that's me.

by grover on May 15, 2007 12:09 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Putnam

Putnam left the Sacramento game the other day with an injury as well...any updates on that?

by pinkfloyd on May 15, 2007 1:12 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

I got one to add to your prospects

Brad Davis LHP, relief guy, seen him a couple of times now for stockton and he looks GOOD. First cottoned on to him by hollywoodoz and i must say Davis has some great stuff. good relief man

Swisher on Ellis - "every day he does something that makes me say, 'Well, I'll be damned, look at that!'"

by Mantecan As Fan on May 15, 2007 7:21 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Yeah.

He's one of those Jeff Baisley types that nobody pays attention to but have the potential to just come exploding out of the gate one day and not look back.

Another one to consider, if he ever gets his health back, is Jimmy Shull.

Best pitcher I've seen in short season ball in the last three seasons.

The Kendall Shift: 6 infielders and 2 catchers.

by Ozzz on May 16, 2007 10:21 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Michael Madsen

Does anyone know what kind of pitches Madsen throws and how hard he throws? His numbers this year have been amazing, yet last year he stunk it up. I was under the impression that when the A's drafted him he was small and threw only about 85 MPH. Also, Brian Snyder has been putting up amazing offensive numbers while changing positions to 2nd base.

by pedoman on May 20, 2007 8:18 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

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