FanPost

Expected Runs

This is just a general baseball diary for those of you who are statistically inclined.

After being disgusted at seeing people rave about a certain player leading the league in "runs" which is pretty much dependent on ur team, I decided to try to make a stat that reflected the contribution the player had to making runs, regardless of his team's performance. So after some tinkering, mostly with the Total Bases formula i came up with this

(1/4(BB)+1/4(Singles)+1/2(doubles)+3/4 (Triples)+HR's+1/2(steals of second)+3/4(steals of third)+steals of home)=Expected Runs
This makes some degree of sense. If you reach first base you have contributed 1/4 of what is needed to score a run. Your teamates are responsible for the rest. If you hit a double, you're half the way there, a triple three quarters, and if you homer you have accomplished a run. Same with stolen bases, if you steal second you have contributed 1/2 of your ability to score and so on and so forth. This stat would also be able to be used in a diffrent type of slugging percentage. The slugging percentage we use now is actually out of 4, not 1. Also, slugging percentage does not include walks. Dividing expected runs by total plate appearnces would give a more accurate description of a player's slugging ability.
I put a bunch of players into a spreadsheet and applied the formula. Though, beacuse my computer was posessed by a demon named Gustav the spreadsheet was deleted, I dont have the results in front of you, the conclusions were:

  1. Expected Runs tended to be pretty close to the players actual runs scored. This explained some things actually. For example in the season I had used, Jason Giambi had scored 76 times in a powerful yankee lineup. Look closer however, and it revealed a conspicuous lack of doubles, triples, stolen bases, and even singles. Mostly he homered or walked.
  1. Fast players tended to have more actual runs than expected

This makes sense. Faster players are able to take an extra base more easily and thus contribute more runs for thier team than would otherwise be possible. However this does not necessarily mean that fast players are always superior. Smart baseruning by a slower baseball player would also seem to be effective.
Let me know what you think, and yes, I know I have way too much time on my hands...

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