Expected Runs

by harendaman365 on Apr 20, 2007 10:58 AM PDT

This is just a general baseball diary for those of you who are statistically inclined.

After being disgusted at seeing people rave about a certain player leading the league in "runs" which is pretty much dependent on ur team, I decided to try to make a stat that reflected the contribution the player had to making runs, regardless of his team's performance. So after some tinkering, mostly with the Total Bases formula i came up with this

(1/4(BB)+1/4(Singles)+1/2(doubles)+3/4 (Triples)+HR's+1/2(steals of second)+3/4(steals of third)+steals of home)=Expected Runs
This makes some degree of sense. If you reach first base you have contributed 1/4 of what is needed to score a run. Your teamates are responsible for the rest. If you hit a double, you're half the way there, a triple three quarters, and if you homer you have accomplished a run. Same with stolen bases, if you steal second you have contributed 1/2 of your ability to score and so on and so forth. This stat would also be able to be used in a diffrent type of slugging percentage. The slugging percentage we use now is actually out of 4, not 1. Also, slugging percentage does not include walks. Dividing expected runs by total plate appearnces would give a more accurate description of a player's slugging ability.
I put a bunch of players into a spreadsheet and applied the formula. Though, beacuse my computer was posessed by a demon named Gustav the spreadsheet was deleted, I dont have the results in front of you, the conclusions were:

Expected Runs tended to be pretty close to the players actual runs scored. This explained some things actually. For example in the season I had used, Jason Giambi had scored 76 times in a powerful yankee lineup. Look closer however, and it revealed a conspicuous lack of doubles, triples, stolen bases, and even singles. Mostly he homered or walked.

Fast players tended to have more actual runs than expected

This makes sense. Faster players are able to take an extra base more easily and thus contribute more runs for thier team than would otherwise be possible. However this does not necessarily mean that fast players are always superior. Smart baseruning by a slower baseball player would also seem to be effective.
Let me know what you think, and yes, I know I have way too much time on my hands...

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Comments

i take pepto when i expect the runs

but shouldn't cs be factored into the expected runs formula?

"Length matters, and if anyone tells you otherwise they're just trying to spare your feelings."-green star oakland

by F171615 on Apr 20, 2007 10:59 AM PDT reply actions

srry they actually were in the original equation

i just was unsure how to count them as qunatified by the base attmpted, or just count the alone (as he has taken himself out of the play)

"Sometimes Joe (morgan) doesn't like facts to get in the way of his opinions."- billy beane

by harendaman365 on Apr 20, 2007 11:57 AM PDT up reply actions

Those are NACHO runs

by theblackpearl on Apr 20, 2007 11:15 AM PDT reply actions

what are NACHO runs?

"Sometimes Joe (morgan) doesn't like facts to get in the way of his opinions."- billy beane

by harendaman365 on Apr 20, 2007 11:57 AM PDT up reply actions

RE: stolen bases

Each time you steal a base, you've only gotten yourself one quarter of the way towards home. In your formula, if a guy hits a double and steals third and home, you give him credit for creating 2.25 runs, which doesn't work.

Also, you ought to include times caught stealing and times grounded into a double play negatively.

See the latest dumbass thing I've done -- camUra

by hunter on Apr 20, 2007 11:39 AM PDT reply actions

i posted this somehwere else and they sed

the same thing. So yeah it makes sense. Ill change it. I dont think it has really an effect on the findings though i cud be wrong.

"Sometimes Joe (morgan) doesn't like facts to get in the way of his opinions."- billy beane

by harendaman365 on Apr 20, 2007 11:58 AM PDT up reply actions

Boswell

It looks like you're trying to recreate Thomas Boswell's Total Average:

Total Average = [(Total Bases + Hit By Pitch + Walks + Stolen Bases) - Caught Stealing]/[(At Bats - Hits) + Caught Stealing + Grounded Into Double Play]

by Danny on Apr 20, 2007 12:41 PM PDT reply actions

no because total bases is a flawed stat

im just trying to find out how many runs a player wud score on his own

"Sometimes Joe (morgan) doesn't like facts to get in the way of his opinions."- billy beane

by harendaman365 on Apr 20, 2007 2:42 PM PDT up reply actions

Total Bases

1/4(BB)+1/4(Singles)+1/2(doubles)+3/4 (Triples)+HR's

That's just (TB+BB)/4.

by Danny on Apr 20, 2007 3:36 PM PDT up reply actions

What's the point?

If, after all that, Expected Runs "tend to be pretty close to the players actual runs scored," what was the point.

I thought you were "disgusted" because of an emphasis on runs scored. Yet, your attempt to quantify "contribution" to run scoring yields the result that runs scored is a pretty good measure of contribution.

I hope your disgust has dissipated.

by Arizona on Apr 21, 2007 7:02 AM PDT reply actions