Now is the time to trade Duke
by TDub on Apr 18, 2007 4:13 PM PDT
45 comments
The Philadelphia Phillies, who obviously do not know how to cope with a slow start to the season like we are accustomed to with our Athletics, have just made a rather desperate move.
http://philadelphia.phillies.mlb.com...
The Phillies demoted Brett Myers, their best starter the last 2 seasons and, arguably, one of the two best starters currently on their roster, to a set-up role in their bullpen.
I'm proposing that a trade of Justin Duchscherer to the Phillies for Brett Myers would help the A's.
Duke, who is in his first year of arbitration eligibility, was just re-signed to a $1.2 million contract for this season.. He will be arbitration eligible again at the end of season.
Brett Myers was signed the past offseason to a $25.75 million contract that will pay him $5 million this season, $8.5 million in 2008 and $12.5 million in 2009.
The A's would get younger as Duke is 29 years old and Myers is actually 26.
Brett Myers, in a rotation of Rich Harden, Dan Haren, Joe Blanton and Esteban Loaiza, would be only a few months older than Haren and Blanton and a year older than Harden. It would also allow the A's to move Gaudin back into the bullpen to be the "new" Duke after the trade.
The Phillies are desperate to bolster their horrible bullpen, having been reported to have interest in displaced Astros closer Brad Lidge (he makes over $5 million this season)!
I bring this diary up because I am particulary concerned with the A's ability to sign and retain Duke, who will be 30 next season to a long term contract. The Anaheim Angels signed Justin Speier, who I think Duke is MUCH better than, to a 4 year, $18 million contract. Speier is 33, four years older than Duke.
It seems in the last couple of season that Billy Beane has put together one of the best bullpens in the league with the anticipation that relievers are currently the under-appreciated, under-valued commodity which he's exploiting. At some point, he just might take advantage of a market inefficieny in a trade (as he did with Huddy and Mulder) and this could be it.
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Not sure about that trade
I agree with your basic premise, though. The A's have developed an amazing amount of talent in the bullpen at the major league level and there are some fine candidates working their way up the chain in the minors. Any trade will come from that depth.
by BlameChannel53 on Apr 18, 2007 4:20 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
don't think
The Phillies would bite on that one. They're probably just trying to send Myers a message; the dude beat his wife in public so I'm guessing he has some character issues. This isn't Jim Bowden. Pat Gillick or whomever is in charge must realize that a solid #2 starter is much more valuable than an excellent set-up man.
by Nick86 on Apr 18, 2007 4:21 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Pat Gillick
Is no genius either though. But you don't trade somebody you just signed to a long-term deal; they will wait it out until at least 2 years from now. Plus that's a huge money differential there for it to be realistic and there is no guarantee Duke will sign a long term deal unless one is already in place. I have a hard time seeing that trade ever go through with Duke having no chance of being a starter. Teams are always looking for starting depth, not bullpen depth. As the A's have figured out, when you have starting pitching depth, then you automatically have a deeper bullpen.
by baseb3383 on Apr 18, 2007 4:25 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
The A's have made 'character issues' the new OBP.
Loaiza, Thomas, Bradley - we can turn guys around, it seems.
by Ozzz on Apr 18, 2007 4:54 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I don't care how often Myers
has slapped his wife around, if the Phillies put him on the trade block there will be at least a dozen teams interested.
by grover on Apr 18, 2007 5:04 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Beane needs to at least inquire; I would offer:
Duke + Komine/Windsor + E-Lo/Kennedy
I can't think of a more shocking roster transaction than this one. When's the last time someone overreacted like this?
by fadedash on Apr 18, 2007 4:40 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Not going to cut it... IMO
For one thing, cross E-Lo off the list entirely. The Phils have enough arms in the rotation that they put Myers in the bullpen, would you put Loaiza in the rotation before Myers?
Kennedy is a FA after this season and in his one year as a full time reliever he missed half the year due to injury. He hasn't exactly proven that he's a durable bullpen arm.
So really you're talking Duke plus 1. That's not going to cut it.
by grover on Apr 18, 2007 5:08 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
uh would you put Lieber in the rotation
before Myers?
exactly.
by fadedash on Apr 18, 2007 5:47 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
But they already have Leiber
and they want to showcase him (in the rotation, because he's a SP at heart) for a future trade. Which would create a spot for Myers in the rotation. Trading Myers for E-Lo doesn't solve their dilemma with Leiber.
by grover on Apr 18, 2007 5:57 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
But to answer your question...
No, I wouldn't put Myers in the pen in favor of Lieber. I'd move Eaton instead.
Actually, I'd have never signed Eaton to begin with!
by grover on Apr 18, 2007 5:59 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Myers to the pen is a surprise move
But he was an anchor in their rotation last year and they (probably) expect him to return to the rotation at some point this season. Jaime Moyer is about 374 years old while Cole Hamels and Adam Eaton have excellent track records for getting hurt and missing months on end. It makes no sense for the Phillies to move Myer at this time.
Now, I agree that Philly would (should) have an interest in one of our better bullpen arms but a Duke/Myers swap is extremely unlikely. For one thing, there are 28 other teams in baseball and you could be damn sure that at least half of them would make their interest known if Philly put Myers on the trade block. Duke ain't going to cut it for a pitcher of Myer's pedigree, someone else will make a better offer.
by grover on Apr 18, 2007 5:02 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
not only a surprise move
but a stupid move IMO.
I agree that at some point they will want to move him back to the rotation.
If they did put him on the block though, I think they would be looking for a top bullpen guy that could close for them. Tom Gordon doesnt have much left in the tank. It would probably take Duke and another starter plus prospect to make it a feasible trade.
by pickinmachine on Apr 18, 2007 5:21 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Its just that if Myers goes on the block
I can't help but think that Tampa or somebody with a loaded farm system would go all in. I think you're right that Philly would want a SP type inreturn but I doubt that either Komine or Windsor are flashy enough for Gillick.
Maybe Duke + Blanton???
But if Tampa (for example) offered a package centered around Baldelli and a couple prospects that might trump Duke + Blanton.
by grover on Apr 18, 2007 5:36 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Philly doesn't need a CF
They already have Victorino and Rowand. But you're right, a team with more prospects could put together an objectively better package. Although the Phils have been bragging about how this is "their year", and I don't think they could stand the publicity of trading their opening day starter for a bunch of minor leaguers, no matter how talented. I think that a trade involving Myers would have to get them someone "established."
Another thing about the Phils -- they really seem into the idea of "winners". The fact that the team played its best last year after they traded Abreu (who was constantly ragged on for being a loser, and not tough, and not like Dykstra or Rose blah blah blah), might have persuaded them that "addition by subtraction" actually works.
So if they've decided that Myers "isn't a winner" I could imagine them dumping him -- hopefully, from their perspective, along with Burrell, another "loser" -- to get some "tough players" who "know how to win." I don't know if that's Duke, but they might base their evaluation of a trade on a bunch of b.s. that doesn't amount to much.
by Nick on Apr 18, 2007 5:52 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Rowand's gone after 2007
And Philly would like Baldelli's RH power to compliment Utley and Howard. In theory, anyways.
And I could definetly see them trying to package Myers with Burrell but that probably wouldn't happen until July.
by grover on Apr 18, 2007 6:01 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
If they're willing to send Myers to the pen
who knows what they'll consider a smart trade? It's even hard for me to imagine some "unknown" (e.g., injury, major attitude problem) that could justify this. It just smells like panic.
I don't think it would be rational for them to want Baldelli, since Burrell is a much better power complement to Utley and Howard. But maybe they'd think that Baldelli is more of a "gamer."
If the 76ers were any good, and were going to the playoffs in the top 1/2 of the bracket, this wouldn't be happening. But the Iggles disappointed this year, the Flyers are awful, the 76ers are a disaster, and the Phillies talked a good game over the winter. They're starting off really bad, and Philly fans are taking it out on them. And now they're making a dumb move in reaction.
Oh, and Charlie Manuel is losing his shit as the Fluffya fans and media react as they so often do.
by Nick on Apr 18, 2007 7:36 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Eagles disappointed?!?!?!
What the Fuck are you talking about?! I'm an Eagles fan, I thought they were dead after McNabb went down. Instead, they win the division and a playoff game. After the meltdown of 2005, this season was just fine.
Burrell is the better power bat but Gillick doesn't like the dollar figures attached to Pat the Bat. Besides, Burrell belongs at 1B but that position seems to be occupied. And like I said earlier, Rowand is gone after this year and they like Victorino in LF. And even if they moved Shane to CF they don't like Michael Bourn's bat in LF. Thus Baldelli makes some sense (if Tampa was willing to part with him) for the Phillies.
The Phils are trying to showcase Lieber. The best way to do that is by letting him start. Eaton can't pitch relief, neither can Garcia and they don't want to screw with Hamels. That leaves Moyer and Myers and Moyer is too old to learn a new trick.
by grover on Apr 18, 2007 7:52 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
People loved Jeff Garcia here
and they were excited that the team didn't kick the bucket after Donovan went down. But people who call in to sports talk radio stations here -- which I don't listen to much because they'll talk in the middle of May about how many carries Correl Buckhalter should get in the upcoming season -- just want a championship, especially if they expect one going into the season, which they did with the Iggles. Hell, WIP has some stupid station-id-tag they run when they're returning from an ad that says something like, "24 years without a championship and counting..."
So yes, the football season left people in a pissy mood -- somewhat hopeful for next year, but there are a lot of fans in this area who are only marginally fonder of McNabb than ANers are of Crosby. People are disgusted with the Sixers and Flyers, and think the Phillies are run by arrogant idiots (not without some reason on that last point). All in all, the natives are very restless, and I think the Phillies are feeling the pressure and getting desperate to win some games now.
by Nick on Apr 18, 2007 8:04 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Fuck the radio talk shows
Most of the caller sare the same ones who booed McNabb on draft day and they still think the Eagles should have drafted Ricky Williams instead.
by grover on Apr 18, 2007 8:14 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
"Fuck the radio talk shows"
I'll bet that's what Manuel said to Eskin today!
by Nick on Apr 18, 2007 8:23 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
How weird has the world become
when the Bay Area NBA and NHL teams put their Philly counterparts to shame?
by FreeSeatUpgrade on Apr 18, 2007 8:42 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
They'd want
Street + Blanton + good MLB prospect, forget Duke, he's not really tradeable given that he's not a closer and he's in middle relief, although one of the best.
by baseb3383 on Apr 18, 2007 5:54 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
On a gut level...
I don't want to see Duke leave. I love watching him pitch, his control is unbelievable. I can't think of another pitcher that consistantly hits the target like Duke does. And I don't want to send Cy Gaudin back to the pen. We should let him try to continue his fantastic starts until he falters a few times before even considering it.
by McFood on Apr 18, 2007 5:20 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
On a gut level...
We get Myers and I'll draft him with Loaiza for my fantasy team at RealLifePiecesOfShit.com.
by Poppy on Apr 19, 2007 6:57 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Bottom line
They need a closer; I can't see any situation where they wouldn't ask for Street in a trade involving Myers.
by baseb3383 on Apr 18, 2007 5:31 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Which would actually be a blessing for Oakland
Don't get me wrong, I love Street, but if Philly over-values an "established" closer than they won't press hard for additional talent. It would take more than Street to get a deal done, but I doubt (in this scenario) that the A's would lose any of their top prospects.
by grover on Apr 18, 2007 5:39 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
A's might have to part with a top prospects
I'd be willing to bet the Phillies organization values Myers highly, and he is a top prospect that will garner good offers. But I see this move as a temporary one to fire him up and get him to be the dominant guy he could be.
by baseb3383 on Apr 18, 2007 5:52 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Phillies org weakness:
3B
C
OF (Especially if they tie Burrell to Myers)
This is assuming that Street + Blanton are already part of the package. If one isn't involved add the appropriate pitching prospect.
by grover on Apr 18, 2007 6:06 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Problem is
They're gonna want an established, young starter + Street + prospect.
by baseb3383 on Apr 18, 2007 5:51 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
try to get some of thier young guys
theres one guy in thier system i like: J.A Happ. Hes a left handed guy hus greatest tool is his intelligence. think jeremy sowers, jamie moyer, tom glavine, guys like that
by harendaman365 on Apr 18, 2007 5:55 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Bad day to mention Sowers
He just gave up 6 earned in 2.2 IP.
by grover on Apr 18, 2007 6:03 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think Duke is...
untouchable.
by iloveoakland on Apr 18, 2007 6:07 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
What... he's a leper???
by grover on Apr 18, 2007 6:08 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
No, just a little downcaste
by FreeSeatUpgrade on Apr 18, 2007 7:43 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Agree, these threads are interesting and ..
I am amazed at our A's fans' knowledge of other teams' systems - even NL teams like the Phillies - but, for the A's to trade any key components of their pitching staff, starters or pen, ain't gonna happen unless we fall way out of contention, and I hope that ain't gonna happen, let's go A's! :)
by Randy Bell on Apr 18, 2007 7:01 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Well said
I agree, we won't make any drastic subtractions unless we really need a kick in the pants. There really isn't much to be done unless Crosby goes down with a major injury and we have a chance to acquire a decent shortstop. We have no depth at short. Then again, neither does anybody else. The only other area of improvement for us would involve a catcher; man if they found a way to get rid of Kendall, wouldn't that be awesome.
by baseb3383 on Apr 18, 2007 7:49 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
;the time to get rid of kendall
was last year when the Red Sox were panicking after Jason Varitek got hurt. They'd have loved his craggy goodness in Beantown, and he could have hit in the back of their order (where he ought to be)
by connie mack on Apr 18, 2007 10:42 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Trading Duke for Myers would be an upgrade
for Oakland, anyways. I just don't see the Phils biting.
by grover on Apr 18, 2007 7:53 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
it's not a loss
if you can get Myers for a reliever and X.
Let's not get too attached to Street or Duke, especially if they could get you someone better.
Probably won't be able to in this case, though.
by fadedash on Apr 19, 2007 4:12 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I would really like to acquire Myers
and don't forget that at the moment, Relief pitching is also at a price premium guys.
If we acquired Myers, I would then try to move Loaiza and Witasick somewhere, assuming they are not in the deal in some way.
by Zonis on Apr 18, 2007 7:02 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Not gonna happen
Unless we eat a lot of cash. Who would want them at their current salaries? Maybe Loaiza, but Witasick is worthless.
by baseb3383 on Apr 18, 2007 7:41 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I can't help but remembering
a couple of weeks before the season when Myers made some statement in the press, basically saying he'd be happy to move to the bullpen to help the team. I'm sure the link is still somewhere on Mlb.com or espn. I thought then that it was one of the stupidest things I've ever heard. I still do. How do these people get positions running teams, or managing? On fjm this morning they had a bunch of quotes from Dusty Baker, and I couldn't help but thinking, "My God. This man is an idiot, who just doesn't understand baseball." But this move really takes the cake. Taking a very, very good 26 year-old starting pitcher, and moving him to the bullpen, is simply put, ridiculous. He'll be great protecting all those leads that Eaton, Lieber, and the rest of the rejects in their rotation (obviously excluding Hamels), don't get them.
All that being said, I can't help but wonder if the A's couldn't put together some deal involving Street. If they can, they should.
by RayRay59 on Apr 18, 2007 7:13 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
It would take a lot plus Street
It's just not worth it in my opinion given our pitching depth already and our young farm talent. We'd be giving up Street + Blanton + Suzuki in my estimation. We can't afford to part with major league ready position players; we don't have many in our farm system right now. I don't see many ways we can really upgrade our team aside from acquiring a good shortstop prospect.
by baseb3383 on Apr 18, 2007 7:46 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
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