A little optimism OR what to do with Crosby, Milton, and Harden
by vignette17 on Apr 16, 2007 12:45 AM PDT
Email
PrintDespite the most dramatic win in a long time people are still pessimistic about three things: our fragile CF, SS, and SP.
Let’s deal with the non-health (aka easiest) issue first. Everyone is justifying believing in Scutaro because they were looking at his process rather than his results. He was hitting line drives ball over the place; it was only a matter of time before they fell. I think Croz's process has been better than I've seen since June '05. He has been attempting and hitting the ball much more to the opposite field than in previous years.
So, I looked for some proof: Crosby’s hitting chart (click all) for the year. 9 of his 15 hits and outs at the Coliseum were to the opposite field. If you manipulate th hitting chart page, you see 4 of Crosby's 7 hits and outs at Safeco were to right. Those stats are a much higher percentage to right field than his previous years’ hitting charts(at least at my first glance). If Croz really is trying to hit to opposite field, he may be going through an adjustment period where process was/is not leading to results.
Of course, this is an absurdly small sample size but so is criticism of Croz based on his performance this season (namely his fielding, which has never been an issue in the past; and, hey, just look at Jeter so far). And if you want to be pessimistic, maybe BoCro is just behind on everything. But perhaps we are seeing Bobby starting to adjust.
Now on to health: from this article and from this article
Harden
"It was more a precautionary [decision] than anything," Geren said. "When he felt the tightness, we felt it was the right move to take him out. We'll see how he feels tomorrow."
...and the already much quoted...
"It's nothing serious," Harden said. "I definitely felt it, but I'm not real concerned."
Bradley
"We're shooting for Tuesday," A's manager Bob Geren said. "I talked with him [on Saturday], and he said he just a day or two away from coming back."
I just am seeing way to much negativity for a team that just hit a walkoff homerun against Mariano f'n Rivera. Though even in a optimistic diary our offense still sucks.
On an endnote: who’s the A’s highest OPS player? I’ll give you a hint: he’s got the highest slugging and the least GIDP on the team and yet Geren doesn’t pinch hit him for lefthanded Kielty! Free Melhuse now!
39 comments
|
0 recs |
Do you like this story?
Comments
you are right
But even with the incredible win I'm more concerned about hardens long term. Maybe we are to optomistic about him... but we sure need him and anytime he leaves a game due to injury its gonna be the main story line regardlass how dramatic our vicorys are.
I agree with you about Crosby
What worries me is the dark cloud that seems to be over Crosby's head. Every out or error he makes, you can read the emptiness on his face. That and the anecdotes we constantly hear about his attitude problem and stubbornness. I hope he starts having fun soon.
And if he's still playing this way mid to late May, a change needs to be made.
It also irks me how Kielty isn't being pinch hit for close and late against righties. I just don't get it. He also doesn't look good enough at the plate to merit the 3 spot in the order. Chavvy looks better against lefties right now, though are lineup options without Milton are depressing. Ideally, I'd bat Milton leadoff, but here's what we've got.
vsRHP
Buck
Swisher
Piazza
Chavez
Walker
Ellis/Scutaro
Crosby
Stewart
Kendall
vsLHP
Buck
Swisher
Piazza
Chavez
Kielty
Ellis/Scutaro
Crosby
Stewart
Kendall
Why should Crosby have that "dark cloud"?
Why the negativity?
What a loser!
(/snark)
by GreenNGoldSooner on Apr 17, 2007 6:49 AM PDT up reply actions
Our offense needs Milton back in the lineup ASAP
.. and of course our pitching staff badly needs Harden to stay healthy ... so we keep our fingers crossed and hope ..
by Randy Bell on Apr 16, 2007 5:30 AM PDT reply actions
Crosby's bat
I have noted in my viewing that Crosby does seem to be trying to go opposite field more often. This is a good thing. It should also be noted that Crosby sports a 1/8 BB/K rate in his 36 AB.
But I don't care about Croaby's bat.
His defense has been rough thus far. The theory has been floated that perhaps this is because of his long lay-off and shortened ST. If that's the case then it only makes sense to relieve some of the pressure he's placing on himself to get ready by sending him down to the minors.
Robert Buan discussed that yesterday on his show
.. and isn't convinced that sending Croz down to AAA is the solution - he could go down and hit .350 and field well, then come back up here and struggle again - the pressure is greatest at the MLB level of course and IMHO crosby's struggles seem to be mental more than just physical - he looks lost right now, lacking confidence. I'm not sure he will get his MLB confidence back in the minors ..
by Randy Bell on Apr 16, 2007 6:19 AM PDT up reply actions
I still think starting the season at AAA
and calling it extended spring training might have been better, at least for the timing in his defense. At this point, however, it would look like a demotion so probably wouldn't help his self confidence.
I have noted he has been trying to go to right field. That is positive.
Much as I love Marco I've never seen him as more than a (super)sub. Crosby, on the other hand, is supposed to be the starting shortstop, with better than average defense and at least the potential to be an offensive force. The A's have been counting on him to be so.
not to mention the money thing
Crosby is inked through 09 anyway, and we owe $2.5M, $3.5 M, and $5.25 M for this and the following two seasons.
That's a lot of cash for us to pay Crosby if he isn't the starter. He'll be given a lot of chances to make things right, ala T. Long.
"Be careful what you wish for
you may just get it."
I think that's what's going on with AN and Crosby. Nearly everyone here has been calling for Crosby to make radical changes to his approach at the plate: stop swinging so hard, start hitting to RF more often. And I think he has. He's choking up on the bat, which I don't think he's ever done before; he's closed his stance up; and he's definitely aiming for off-field hits now.
He's had some success -- he's gotten all those off-field hits (good job on highlighting his hitting chart, vignette17), I've seen him lay off a lot of outside sliders that he used to wave at. But, predictably, he's also struggling a lot. He seems to have used the same basic approach at the plate since high school (this is from old pix of him in the minors, his statements about how long he's used his swing-hard-all-the-time approach). Now he's trying something new -- a decision that nearly everyone here supports -- and he's trying it against the best pitchers in the world.
The only hitter I can remember having success making such major changes to his approach was Carney Lansford. He had years where he hit .280 with 12-19 HR, and others where he hit .320 with 2-4 HR -- he did the former with the Angels and with the A's for a few years, and the latter with the BoSox and with the A's once he started hitting behind Rickey. He also had a few years with no power and lower BAs. Lansford made these changes, however, without a bad back, and with more experience as a hitter (and, in Boston at least, in a great hitters' park).
I argued in 3Chavy3's diary on Crosby last week that Crosby would struggle a lot if he made these kind of changes on the fly in the majors. If ANers want a Crosby to be a different hitter, then we need to put up with a bad hitter for at least a few months.
His fielding problems? I don't know what the deal is. It could be his back. It could be rust. It could be that he's taking his hitting problems into the field, or that he's spending so much time and energy on fixing his hitting problems that he hasn't worked as much as he should in the field.
As I've said elsewhere, it would be perfectly reasonable for the A's to send Crosby to AAA to make his batting changes where they won't hurt the A's and to figure out his fielding problems. But whom would we call up? Murphy?
People here have been ripping into Crosby for being stubborn and inflexible. Now, he's being flexible and making changes, and people are frustrated that he's not the player he used to be. We can't have it both ways.
let me get this straight...
player crosby used to be?
he's been crap his whole career. he had one good 20 game stretch that inflated his '05 numbers. beyond that he's a .240/.310/.400 career hitter.
yawn. those are kc royals numbers.
marco is nowhere near the talent that crosby is but he produces remarkably similar results (higher obp, lower slg for roughly the same ops as crosby). marco's defense isn't as good as crosby's ordinarily.
and despite all this, i declare, with no reservation, play marco over crosby everyday. why? for my entertainment dollar, i'd rather watch scutaro than crosby (the high price, prima donna, soft glove treatment required).
crosby is the tin woodman from the wizard of oz. easily dented and he has no heart.
marco is the scarecrow, no brain. he doesn't know that he's supposed to be terrible. so he doesn't care. he steps up and clubs bombs off of rivera and game winners off of k-fraud.
all this irrational love for crosby is driving me nuts. he should never play again for the a's. ever. ever.
Irrational love
he's been crap his whole career. he had one good 20 game stretch that inflated his '05 numbers. beyond that he's a .240/.310/.400 career hitter.
yawn. those are kc royals numbers.
Marco Scutaro's stats with the A's:
2004 .273/.297/.393
2005 .247/.310/.391
2006 .266/.350/.397
Career .256/.314/.388
FWIW, Scutaro's carrer SS range factor is a little below league average, and his fielding % is just about average.
So if we're going to be rational about Crosby, let's be rational about all the A's' players.
Crosby has actually finished a season with an OPS+ over 100 (something Scutaro has never done), was a very successful minor league hitter, and has been a much better than average fielder at SS, as well.
So, yes, I'd happily have a guy who plays defense much better than Scutaro (or Crosby right now) at SS, and who can hit 22 HRs, and even steal a base from time to time (16 of 21 career), gets on base as often as Scutaro, and slugs .425 to .450.
as i noted...
so scutaro's career numbers are .256/.314/.388
while crosby's career numbers are .241/.315/.399
not much difference, until you consider that crosby's numbers are getting worse and scutaro is on the upswing.
scoot's best year was 2006, crosby's best year was '04 (i refuse to count '05 because it was really 30 games in which he excelled) and his '06 were awful when he played.
teams have figured out crosby's weakness. until he hits consistently (and his #s this year don't suggest that he's figured it out yet), then i want scoot over crosby.
as for defense, crosby is the better player and his current travails will disappear at some point. he's too good defensively to be playing the way he is. i was at the game yesterday and his defense was pathetically bad.
net-net, i'd rather have scoot right now than crosby on the field and taking at bats.
i'm sick of hearing about potential and high ceilings. that and $4 will get you a latte at starbucks. who cares? not i.
How are you gonna let Cros figure it out?
If he doesn't play, he's not going to be able to adjust. He's not playing any worse than Scutaro, so why not let him see more pitching and observe whether he makes the adjustments? We've got a small sample size here this year; Crosby's only had 36 at bats. He also has a higher average than Scutaro right now. I really don't care how clutch Scutaro is, he's good for one thing: utility infield. He's not a starter. Have him fill in for Ellis and Crosby for their one game off a week, but don't bench Crosby. Crosby at his current level (i.e. terrible) is equal to Scutaro on offense and defense. Until Scoot's at bat against Rivera, he was what, 1 for 20? That's an upswing?
Scutaro is very consistent from year to year, but there is no way he will ever match Crosby's average year right now, which will be around an OPS+ of 100, league average. If he improves, you've got a potentially All-Star caliber shortstop. It's a no-brainer because Crosby at a bad level still plays every bit as good as Scutaro; but Crosby has the potential to exceed that by a wide margin.
i'm sick...
of hearing about crosby's potential. he might be good someday in an over 30 softball beer league. but right now, he's useless to me and the a's.
with scoot, i know what i'm gonna get. subpar defense and consistent offense.
with crosby, i'm gonna get a wide potential of outcomes, with none of it on the upside.
look, i haven't wanted to say it, but i'm gonna. crosby is our version of pedro feliz. i can always count on him to ground out to third with runners on 2nd and 3rd and nobody out...just like he did against the angels. he has all the physical tools, but he's got a 2 cent head.
crosby's average year? what year was that? when will we see it again? because right now all i see is well less than average. baseball has figured out his weakness and he's show zero ability to compensate for it.
Agreed with you and Robert Buan he needs MLB time
.. right now .. I just can't see him sucking forever, give him another few weeks playing time up here .. also for those who want to get rid of Bobby or send him down to AAA {if we can even do that unless he is injured and rehabbing, does he have options?} - if you play Scutaro at SS on regular basis you have no other infield backup but Walker who has been playing 1B while Bradley is unavailable - so you would need another infield backup from somewhere if you send Bobby down. I think A's management sees this as the best alternative right now - letting Bobby play through it - if there was a better alternative they would have taken it, or will take it, I'm sure ..
by Randy Bell on Apr 16, 2007 11:51 AM PDT up reply actions
send crosby down
i think he has made positive steps in laying off some outside sliders and trying to go to the opposite field. but he needs time to get used to a new approach at the plate. he looks like he has no confidence in his swing - and it usually looks terrible for that reason. he needs time to get acclimated to it. doing so in the minors would be a good thing. that way, when he comes back up, he can go to bat knowing, "hey, my sh&t works at the plate." and given his injury and his time off, he's probably not ready for regular season baseball at this point. i think it's somewhat unfair to even put him in this position right now. get him out of the majors for a few weeks. hopefully he comes back confident and comfortable with his swing.
Crosby
How can you send Crosby down w/o putting him on waivers? Doesn't he have to be injured? Can the A's say that Crosby's back is injured, when from all indications it isn't? Wouldn't he have to be away from all baseball activites for 15 Days?
I say let him play it out. He's rusty, and it's only 13 games. If we're still talking about the same things after 45-60 games, then it's an issue Gereane (Geren/Beane) will address.
Geren managed Crosby in AAA. Beane picked Crosby over Tejada. Management/Manager loves Crosby, so he'll be given every chance to succeed.
by Colorado Fan on Apr 16, 2007 8:15 AM PDT up reply actions
Agreed
They will let him play it out. Crosby has looked much better at the plate as he goes; I thought his at bat against Mo was pretty good and he got a good swing on a tough pitch. His defense should get better, he just needs more reps (this is basically like his spring training). He'll be fine.
so if bradley goes on the DL
who do we call up?
i have no idea how the 40 man roster works but the only extra OFer we have on it is javier Herrera
no bocachica,thomas or even antonio perez who'd played CF in spring training
by J Rod @ Athletics Nation on Apr 16, 2007 7:59 AM PDT reply actions
That would be an interesting call up
Might as well take a lot at the young prospect, he's certainly talented enough to tear it up.
Herrera
As cool as it would be to call up Herrera, he has been sucking majorly in Stockton (High A Ball) so far. They would probably call up Bocachica if Bradley went on the DL since he's started out hot.
by BillyMac on Apr 16, 2007 11:39 AM PDT up reply actions
Donnie Baseball
The Sacramento shortstop just went 3-for-4. At least he's played in the big leagues with KC. I think he'd add a "nothing to lose" feeling like Mike Roush did last year, and how Ramon Hernandez did when he arrived. Both of those past players added wins to the A's.
by One won lost won on Apr 16, 2007 1:04 PM PDT up reply actions
I can understand negativity around here
Mostly due to the horrible PR concerning injuries we've had over the last few years. It makes fans anxious when shoulder tightness can turn into a significant DL stint. But aside from that, the only negativity here is the offense sucking and Crosby's defense being awful, both of which are warranted.
I think we all are pretty positive after pulling out a great series win against a team we need to play well against. And I for one am more than pleased with a number of aspects of the A's: the bullpen, especially the lefties, Gaudin's performance as a starter, and Travis Buck's amazing play.
I'm also not concerned with Haren at all; the talk about his hip bothering him has gotten absurd. He still seems to be pitching just fine and he's been durable. The same with Milton, he just tweaked his hamstring and if he's not fine by this week, he'll be fine by next week. Getting solid hitters like DJ and Kotsay back and having Stewart return to his normal hitting levels should help the offense get better as the season goes. Remember that our lineup has always been streaky; I would expect by May for the guys to be hitting much, much better and with a lot more power.
Roster juggling
I agree with most everything that you say. The one problem is what happens when DJ and Kotsay come back. One move is to release Walker (a little hard to do, since he's played a key role in 33% of our wins, but still...). That gets one of them back on the roster. The other move? We could send DiNardo down, but imagine what we would have done on Saturday night with a smaller bullpen!
Even if we shrink the pen, there are still too many OFs (Bradley (knock on wood), Swisher (with DJ at 1B), Kotsay, Buck, Kielty (better against Stewart vs. lefties) for someone like Stewart to get many ABs. My guess is that he might get released when DJ and Kotsay are ready to play.
How about cutting ties with witaSUCK
once and for all?
by SwisherSweet33 on Apr 16, 2007 10:54 AM PDT up reply actions
Good point
I'd might do that even if it left us with only 24.
Yeah, I think they will keep Walker
There are too many variables with DJ coming back from a fairly weird injury and him coming off a not so good year. Plus Walker can play 2B and 3B if needed, is a good left handed bat off the bench, and best of all, he can hit. I would say Kielty or Stewart will be cut (the emergence of Buck assures that one of the two will be gone, most likely Kielty) and then probably Witasick or DiNardo will get booted (both will eventually when Loaiza gets back).
Not baseball related, but someone went wild at Va
Tech school, killing 22 people.
Gunman Kills 21 on Virginia Tech Campus
Crosby Always a Slow starter
It's really nothing new for Crosby to start off the year slowly. This was his pattern in college, the minors and up here to some extent. His hits to RF are appreciated but he still has that strong tendency to roll over on pitches and try to pull them. He hasn't pulled enough inside pitches yet that have equated into bases hits. Thus, his average remains horrible. Geren and Beane will be patient. His defense isn't up to standards as well. it has translated into losses (see 1st game against Mariners). So we are left with once again a team that will take a couple of months to put it all together.
Harden isn't too concerning to me yet. Why? He c/o of tightness after 95 pitches not 5 pitches. He faced a tough lineup that typically makes pitchers work harder than at other times. Let's see how he recovers before drawing any conclusions.
On Milton, I agree he's prone to injury from improper running technique. Think of how smooth an Olympic or world class runner is. When you see Bradley run, he's "choppy". This will put more strain on his joints as well as quadriceps hamstings and calf muscles. When he tries too hard, that's when he gets in trouble. Until his technique improves, expect occasional episodes where he'll have to sit out to heal.
Everybody just hold on a minute...
It's been only 13 games. As the great Billy would tell you, that's a very small sample size. The A's have started out slow on offense, but they'll come around. Crosby has yet to prove himself, it's true, but let's give him some time. Walker, Chavy, Piazza, Swish and Buck will more then likely provide enough offense to keep this team going for the next few weeks (maybe month and a half) while Crosby either finds his swing and defensive groove, or proves to be worthy of benching. Then let the maniacal "Crosby is destroying the A's!" talk resume, if he is still playing poorly.
And for those people who want to bench or release Stewart, let's hold on a second here. Giambi (blech) is in a horrible hitting slump as we witnessed this last series, and nobody is going crazy in New York, I'm sure. He, unlike Crosby, has a proven track record, as does Stewart. Stewart is a career .298 hitter over a long career. He barely played last season and is finding his swing, and I'd bet my next paycheck that by May he'll be hitting much closer to .300 then .200. He'll be fine.
nice post /nt
by Randy Bell on Apr 16, 2007 12:25 PM PDT up reply actions
good points
The difficulty, as has been pointed out, is that Crosby has never had a string of successful months, much less a season of success.
Angel Berroa was the A's "heir-to-be" to Tejada until the Athletics signed Crosby. Tejada took several years to mature, and I think that is what the A's mgmnt is looking at. But just like they gave up on Berroa, if Crosby's fielding doesn't save him, he'll be gone like Berroa.
by One won lost won on Apr 16, 2007 1:08 PM PDT up reply actions
I agree with you on Crosby
I also have seen some positive signs. He has been making an effort to hit to the opposite field. lets just hope that he gets his timing back and can be productive for us.
by 3Chavy3 on Apr 16, 2007 3:30 PM PDT reply actions
Here's how good Crosby is at the plate,
objectively...
Bobby Crosby, career, coming into 2007: .244, 40 HR (1 HR every 31 AB), 15 SB (1 SB every 33 games).
Angel Berroa, career, coming into 2007: .264, 45 HR (1 HR every 50 AB), 50 SB (1 SB every 12 games).
Basically, Bobby Crosby is about the same as the other recent SS Rookie of the Year.
The differences? Crosby hits for a little more power, Berroa utilizes a little more speed. Oh, and one of them is actually playing at AAA.
Yeah
Other than the fact that Crosby has a better OBP, better slugging, and plays much better defense they're practically twins.
Maybe you should compare Crosby to some other shortstops as well. In order of career OPS:
Lugo: .277/.341/.403 (OPS+ 92)
Cabrera: .269/.318/.404 (OPS+ 85)
Crosby: .241/.315/.399 (OPS+ 86)
Scutaro: .256/.314/.388 (OPS+ 83)
Vizquel: .276/.342/.359 (OPS+ 85)
Betancourt: .275/.301/.391 (OPS+ 83)
Everett: .250/.302/.363 (OPS+ 72)
etc.
Crosby has the lowest BA of that group, but so what? His OBP is middle of the pack, and he has the most power. The notion that he should be in the minors, or benched for the likes of Scutaro, is inane.
I beg to differ
I would challenge anyone who has seen him play to assert that his defense so far this season has been anything but consistently horrible. Offensively, the problem isn't that he's batting .182, it's that he's only batting 60 points below his career average. In other words, he's just continuing not to be a very good hitter. So my question would be: What about his play suggests that he SHOULD be in the major leagues right now? There's a place to be rusty and it's about 1.5 hours north of here. I can't think it's any better for Crosby than it is for us watching for him to flail this badly.
I'll hang in with Croz until
June....will certainly complain if he continues to struggle, but after that.....thumbs down.
Comments For This Post Are Closed
Secondary Sidebar
User Tools
FanPosts
Community blog posts and discussion.
Certain photos copyright © 2012 by Associated Press or Getty Images. Any commercial use or distribution without the express written consent of Associated Press and Getty Images is strictly prohibited.
