When Is The 'Pen Mightier Than The Starter?
by Nico on Apr 13, 2007 8:41 AM PDT
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PrintIf you’re wondering when games are most often decided, keep in mind that crucial time towards the end of the 6th inning and beginning of the 7th. That’s when starters often are either tiring or reaching a high pitch count but the most reliable relievers generally cannot yet be used. This is the toughest part of the game for managers to navigate when the game is close, because the choices come down to these:
- extend the starter and risk leaving him in “one batter too long”
- bring in your best relievers and risk “spending them” in a game that still has a ways to go
- bring in your “B-squad” relievers and put a close game in their hands
Bob Geren has been confronted with this dilemma multiple times already in this young season, and so far he has usually opted to yank the starter (Blanton, both in Seattle and Anaheim, Gaudin in Anaheim and Oakland, Kennedy in Anaheim and Oakland) after the starter had gotten somewhere between 15-18 outs. In some of these cases, the decision was made easier by the fact that early in the season, pitch limits are lower and in some of these examples the pitcher was nearing 100 pitches.
However, as the season progresses it will be interesting to see what Geren does when starters begin to falter in the middle-innings. Will Geren ask more of his starters in order to preserve the bullpen—potentially leading to Post Traumatic Stress Disorder induced cries of FIRE MACHA NOW? Or will Geren, as he did in Anaheim, call on the Jay Witasicks because he can’t go to the Streets and Duchscherers every time—causing the Vlad Guerreros to start drooling? Or will Geren, as he did Tuesday night without the lead, call on the Streets and Duchscherers—only to find them (perhaps coincidentally, perhaps not) ineffective the next day?
It’s not going to be easy for Geren, simply because the A’s play a lot of close games. The trouble with pitching especially well and not hitting especially well is that a lot of games, as you get to the 6th and 7th innings, are going to be 3-2, 3-3, 2-1…You’re going to find yourself, time and time again, in the 6th inning of a tight game, watching your starter get into trouble as he nears 100 pitches, and having to decide what to do.
What to do?
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The answer seems obvious
Get more out of your offense!
I'm not worried about the offense (or lack there of) at this time. Yes, the hitting is putrid but it will get better. Kendall and Crosby are hitting so bad that even I am optimistic for improvement! We'll get more out of Stewart and Ellis and hopefully Bradley too. (And I only grouped the names this way to emphasize the irony in me expecting improvement from Kendall and Crosby.)
Remember your Moneyball!
Baseball is a war of attrition and what is being attrioned is pitchers' arms. You aren't going to win a lot of games with half a team and right now that is all the A's have. Geren will be able to stretch his SP out as the season progresses but he must remember to use his entire bullpen to avoid burning out Duke and Street and Embree. If he has bullpen arms that suck than it is Billy Beane's JOB to replace them with more talented arms.
agreed if can just climb up near their career avg
.. (near career averages) then they'll be fine .. last year was a down year offensively when several guys were below career numbers, so statistically should expect or hope for better this year over the long long season ..
by Randy Bell on Apr 13, 2007 9:25 AM PDT up reply actions
I can't wait to see you in May
Poor thing. :-)
by baseballgirl on Apr 13, 2007 12:20 PM PDT up reply actions
hey BBG don't feel sorry for me i'm a VET rooter
.. I know the A's usually suck in May .. if we can be anywhere near .500 at the end of May, we'll be fine .. Btw did you know Escobar just went on the 15-day DL? We not the only ones with injuries to starters {Loaiza} ..
by Randy Bell on Apr 13, 2007 12:40 PM PDT up reply actions
With Escobar, Colon, and Ja Weaver
all out at the same time, the A's can only complain so much about their injury woes--especially considering how important starting pitching is to a team's success.
amen and we got good news on DJ ..
.. he might be back a lot sooner than expected ..
by Randy Bell on Apr 13, 2007 12:51 PM PDT up reply actions
Weaver's pitching
Monday for the Angels. He just threw 93(?) pitches in a rehab start.
by IndianaAsfan on Apr 13, 2007 5:41 PM PDT up reply actions
way off topic, but
what's the best way to get up to speed on the minor league systems and propsects for all MLB teams? i've heard that sickels' books is the best way but looking for more input. if that's the best way, so be it.
i'm trying to learn about the quality of the minor league systems in a detailed way. names, #s, projections, ppromotion history, etc...
any help is appreciated and please pardon the interruption to the regularly schedule programming.
Baseball America's 2007 Prospect Handbook
I have Sickels book too but for the information you're seeking BA is the way to go. Most major bookstores will carry it but if you have trouble finding it you can order it online at BA's website. If you can afford the $50-60 buy both.
Sickels' website (minorleaguebaseball.com, part of the SB Nation... follow the link on the right side of the main page) also includes his Top 30 lists for every team. Just do a Search and type in the team name, should be pretty easy to find. Please note that this is just a list, he doesn't go into detail on more than 1 or 2 players per team... if he did it would sorta defeat the purpose of him writing a book!
"fire geren now"
is inevitable, because whether he chooses option 1, 2, or 3, it won't work out about 50% of the time in close games and he'll get blamed when it doesn't, just like macha was.
as grover said, the only solution is to not play so many close games by getting more offense.
What are you talking about
The offense is fine. Our lineup is stacked with great hitters. :-)
Ty Van Burkleo...
...is the kindest, bravest, warmest, most wonderful human being I've ever known in my life.
by GreenNGoldSooner on Apr 13, 2007 10:31 AM PDT up reply actions
agreed one can never get too much offense but
.. mediocre pitching and defense will lose a heck of a lot more games than will mediocre offense alone ..
the only solution is to not play so many close games by getting more offense.
by Randy Bell on Apr 13, 2007 10:02 AM PDT up reply actions
If you're losing 2-1 or winning 2-1
Mediocre pitching and/or defense isn't the problem.
True but when fans want more offense they ..
.. forget the tradeoffs - for example, Carlos Lee or Adam Dunn = offensive upgrade but defensive downgrade. The A's in recent years have been built around average offense but outstanding pitching and defense .. and last year they won a good percentage of the one-run games because of that. Give them time, if they're still doing the same closer to All Stars break, then we'll be in trouble; I have confidence in the A's, they seem to always get off to slow start but then turn it around come June and July ...
by Randy Bell on Apr 13, 2007 10:09 AM PDT up reply actions
Geren Trends
I think Nico nails it.
It's early in the season and the sample size may be too small for conclusions, but it looks like Geren's hook is a bit too quick. Gaudin was pulled after 91 pitches and Kennedy after 84. By not allowing either to finish the sixth inning (hell, Kennedy was pulled after giving up a single), he was forced to use his bullpen early. It worked in the first case and didn't in the second.
I also agree that he may be overworking Street, using him in situations when it might be better to consider other members of the bullpen.
Ideally, a starter I think should go seven innings (more, maybe?) if the pitch count isn't too high, which means only two relievers will be used through the rest of the game.
It's possible he's taking his time stretching out his starters or saw something in Gaudin's & Kennedy's (and Blanton's) deliveries that indicated they were losing it.
But otherwise, I never appreciated pulling a pitcher before 100-110 pitches if he was going strong. There is NO proof that the extra 20-30 pitches hurts someone's health, and lots of evidence that pulling an effective pitcher too soon hurts the team's chances of winning. (Except in the specific case of Saarloos, who nearly always lost it in the sixth or seventh inning no matter how many pitches he'd thrown).
by richwol on Apr 13, 2007 11:15 AM PDT up reply actions
It worked fine the second time
If he had kept Kennedy in longer, he still would have gone to Duke in the 8th and Street in the 9th.
Random thoughts
I think that in Gaudin's case it was the fact that he really still is being stretched out due to lateness of his arrival to the rotation.
With Kennedy and Blanton it really does seem to be the quick hook syndrome.
I don't think that Street has been mis-used at all this year. He came in on Tuesday, trailing by a run. They were off on Monday, he pitched on Sunday, and before that it had been Thursday. Using him Wednesday after his 7 pitch outing on Tuesday was also fine, especially because yesterday was an off day.
Thing is, if Dinardo and Witasick are both relegated to mop up duty then why carry both? It's not needed. Hints are that one will be gone when DJ returns (and DJ still can't hit in the bigs, but he'll get his chance) but that's still two weeks (or more) away.
Geren wont leave his starters too long
So far in this young season Geren has yanked his starters at the first sign of touble. When you have a pen as good as our pen is can you blame him. I hope that he can find a balance so that he does not over use the pen.
by 3Chavy3 on Apr 13, 2007 11:04 AM PDT reply actions
What to do?
Can we find a batting coach that can teach the boys to hit fly balls with RISP?
It's kind of frustrating watching groundball after groundball only to hit a deep fly for the third out.
Maybe if they can switch that around and get a sac fly or two then ground out for out number three.
Problem is, the opposing pitcher is trying to ..
.. keep the hitter off-balance and induce a ground ball or {if he gets ahead in the count} a strike-out .. he knows a fly ball means a run .. don't forget the opposition are just as smart as we .. i'm not making excuses but I noticed a similar situation yesterday when the Indians failed to execute with RISP {runners at 2nd and 3rd with one out}. I'm sure it isn't as easy as it looks .. but i agree, we need to improve with RISP.
by Randy Bell on Apr 13, 2007 12:02 PM PDT up reply actions
and the white sox failed in the same game
in the same situation. let's not be fooled by the Ichiro's of the world. doing what you want with a major league pitch, especially when everyone in the ballpark knows what you're trying to do, is extraordinarily difficult. the only thing you can seemingly teach is patience and the only thing to regret is those hitters who jump at the first pitch they see, no matter the location. I would trust that the A's work long and hard on this aspect of hitting, waiting for a pitch in a certain location in a certain game situation. the good thing about professional golf is that people who watch the game usually have recent experience trying to play it, and know how difficult it is. most baseball fans are too many years removed from trying to hit a curveball, even a cheesy high school curveball.
Two Games Under .500?
Yes, I know we have "a history of starting slow." But two games under .500 is, well, a little below average. What were we two years ago---20 games under? It's two early to fall back on that old bromide. It's not that we start slow. The truth is we are hanging in there with a very poorly thought-out offense. Kendall should obviously not be batting first. Let's get a hitter in there and create excitement from #1 in the batting order. We need some pep in our step---and the workmanlike Kendall doesn't give us that---and has never given us that. That's why we had to wait for Thomas to save us in all those games last year. My idea? Bradley hits first---yes. He hits the ball hard, he can steal a base (putting pressure on the pitcher from the first) and he's a power threat---so you have to be careful with him from pitch one.
My lineup:
Bradley
Ellis (can do lots of things, including bunt/solid!)
Piazza
Chavez
Swisher
Buck
Scutaro
Stewart
Kendall
I do not believe in Mr. Crosby. Scutaro is solid and hits when given a chance.
Some small sample size phenomena...
The one thing Kendall always does is make contact...Who struck out three times on Opening Night? Kendall. Ellis is one of the guys you can really rely on to get a bunt down...except two games in a row. Over the long haul, I want Kendall up in contact situations and Ellis up in bunting situations. But over a 10-game stretch, those "truths" have been false.
and facing King Felix didn't help
Did anyone notice the vaunted Boston offense didn't have any luck against Felix either? .. {g} ..
Who struck out three times on Opening Night? Kendall
by Randy Bell on Apr 13, 2007 12:46 PM PDT up reply actions
SS Size
More games = More truthiness
by FormerHuntsvilleStar on Apr 13, 2007 4:02 PM PDT up reply actions
If it weren't for the pitching...
...I think the A's would be 2-8 or 1-9 right now. It seems fortunate that they're 4-6.
Just for clarification: Two years ago, the A's started 17-32 -- only 15 games under .500.
by FormerHuntsvilleStar on Apr 13, 2007 4:07 PM PDT up reply actions
we aren't in anywhere near that much a hole yet
2005 was probably one of the worst months of May that I can remember. We're only ten games into the season. Haven't even gotten halfway into April much less May.
by Randy Bell on Apr 13, 2007 4:18 PM PDT up reply actions
Also take heart, I think it was 2001 when ..
.. we started off 10-18 and ended up winning 100 games! :)
by Randy Bell on Apr 13, 2007 4:20 PM PDT up reply actions
I hear ya...
The A's started 2-10 that year...finished 102-60. 'Course, if it weren't for that horrid start, they wouldn't have finished 14 games behind the Mariners. Slackers! ;)
Oh, the wonders of a six-month schedule!
by FormerHuntsvilleStar on Apr 13, 2007 5:38 PM PDT up reply actions
the first bullet and second
Don't worry about choosing--
the next time I see you in person, only one bullet will be needed.
A's offense
After looking at some of the other games that the teams we've played have been in I'm not as down on our offense. We got shut down by Felix Hernandez who one hit the Red Sox, definately a better offense than ours. Angles did a pretty good job of shutting down the Indians who have a damn good offense, shutting out the Sox through 4 today. We scored 4 and 9 against the bad Seattle pitching we faced. And while the Sox pitching doesn't look like it did 2 years ago, Contreas started the All-Star game last year, Buehrle has been a good pitcher for all but the last half of 06. And Garland isn't a slouch.
I've been thinking the same thing schmitty
.. also hoping maybe our offense can get going against the yanks - we'll miss mussina and wang {hurt} - even Carl Pavano has been scratched for the 2nd game of the series ..
by Randy Bell on Apr 13, 2007 5:35 PM PDT up reply actions
What to do? Trade for offense!
Gomes is warming the bench in tampa due to a crowded outfield... lastings milledge got sent down to the minors today... lots of offensive trade options out there whose value is falling...go get 'em billy.
by johnjahafanclub on Apr 13, 2007 8:10 PM PDT reply actions
You are mistaken sir
There is not an abundance of offensive talent to be had via trade.
Without a starter,
what good is the penis?
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