JFK + SP = #ERROR?

by baseballgirl on Mar 7, 2007 3:44 PM PST in News Comment 68 comments

Perhaps this post would have been more apropos before his last two Spring Training starts, but I’m pretty sure had he not allowed a hit either time, I would still feel the same way about the Joe Kennedy = Starting Pitcher campaign.

I hated this idea when he filled in for Harden a couple of years ago, and it never ceased to frustrate me when justifications were made, such as ‘He really didn’t pitch that badly’. Well, maybe not, but he still lost just about every start. Although pitchers’ wins are indeed largely dependant on factors like their team’s offensive output, and the performance of the opposing pitcher, there is still something to be said for actually winning games. It wasn’t like Kennedy was losing games 1-0 while pitching lights-out; he simply couldn’t keep the opposition from scoring more runs than the A’s.

Nothing like the feeling of knowing that you’d better win the first four games in a rotation, because you might as well pencil in the "L" for the fifth. After the first month of that experiment, I remember thinking that I would have taken my chances with Kendall as the starting pitcher, because it quite literally couldn’t get worse; we were losing every start anyway. Obviously, the A’s did find a stop-gap solution to the problem; for all of his flaws, Saarloos had the only quality necessary in a fifth starter; in just about every start, he kept the team in the game and gave them a chance to win. He was, by no means, a great pitcher, but everyone knew that with a little more offense than usual, the A’s could come away with a win.

My feelings for Joe Kennedy were hostile at best at the close of the 2005 season, and it took the entirety of 2006 to change my mind. But the change was successful; I went as far as to embrace his "JFK" moniker, standing of course for Joe "F’in" Kennedy, a name he earned after his repeated sixth inning heroics. Kennedy had an excellent season last year in the ‘pen, and although I don’t believe he’s as good overall as those numbers indicate, I certainly wouldn’t mind seeing him there again.

But as a starting pitcher? No way. Because, like it or not; whether we’re going to talk about it or not, we all know that there is a slim chance that starters 1 through 4 are going to actually be making starts 1 through 4 in the rotation for the entire season (weakest link: see starter 1). While Kennedy is not a terrible 5 starter, there is a better-than-average chance that number 5 will end up being number 4, a slot which Blanton can barely fill, much less Joe Kennedy.

We know what to expect from our fifth starter. At best, he’ll be an average starter and allow the A’s a chance to score some runs for the wins. At worst, he will dig the A’s into irrecoverable deficits every fifth day. But what is the downside on taking a chance on someone else, anyone else, and putting Kennedy back in the ‘pen, where he excelled last year? And what is the downside to doing this now, instead of preparing for the (most likely) rough couple of months ahead? How long of a leash does he have?

Game notes:

In the last two days, Perez has almost equaled his 2006 hit count.
Mike Piazza update: Just a bruise. Will be out a couple of games.
Thanks to longtimefan for the shoutout on the Buan-cast!

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for some reason, the thought of Joe Blanton

not being able to "Fill" a role is humorous to me.

As for the 5th starter slot, I agree. Kennedy looks like a lost cause, both past and present. He's had 1 good season in his career as a starter.

Who is left to throw at the 5th starter slot then?

Windsor? Komine? Halsey?

Personally, I want to see Dan Meyer pitch, but unfortunetly, he has yet to do it this spring, for whatever reason. Maybe he isn't healthy after all. Shame.

But it is looking more and more like it is Halsey's job now.

by Zonis on Mar 7, 2007 3:46 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

Agreed - I Don't think Kennedy cuts it ..

.. as a fifth starter. In fact I am feeling increasingly pessimistic about our being able to compete with the Angels in 2007 given their superior pitching and loaded farm system .. they can more easily make a trade mid-season if they need offense, too ..

.. the Athletics may be small-market but they have BIG-heart! ..

by Randy Bell on Mar 7, 2007 3:46 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

Maybe Michael Urban was right ..

.. when he predicted we would be battling Texas -- for SECOND PLACE !!

.. the Athletics may be small-market but they have BIG-heart! ..

by Randy Bell on Mar 7, 2007 3:50 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Since when have the Angels made a midseason move?

Stoneman doesn't scare me much.

"E-Lo pitched a whale of a ballgame," A's manager Ken Macha said.

by niallmack on Mar 7, 2007 4:06 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

since when?

since chavez had his breakout MVP season ,remember?

I am a merely a human being, not Google.

by J Rod on Mar 7, 2007 4:08 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Hope you are right ..

.. 'cause the A's look pretty vulnerable to me right now -- not as much depth as last year .. IMHO ..

.. the Athletics may be small-market but they have BIG-heart! ..

by Randy Bell on Mar 7, 2007 4:11 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Say it with me...

...Spring Training...Spring Training....Spring Training...

Stat Wonk Futurist

by salb918 on Mar 7, 2007 3:57 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

Sure...if you say it with me...

Joe Kennedy is not a starting pitcher, even in the regular season.
Joe Kennedy is not a starting pitcher, even in the regular season.
Joe Kennedy is not a starting pitcher, even in the regular season.

;-)

Now we have 6 or 7 months to enjoy, to cheer, cry, and scream both in frustration and happiness. ~china bob

by baseballgirl on Mar 7, 2007 3:59 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

And also ..

Remember August-Sept of '05
Remember August-Sept of '05
Remember August-Sept of '05

.. when filling in as a starter, after Harden's injury. Pretty much sealed our doom to lose to the Angels ..

.. the Athletics may be small-market but they have BIG-heart! ..

by Randy Bell on Mar 7, 2007 4:02 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Interestingly, when Angels clinched in Oakland ..

.. '05, I was at the game, guessed who started that game, yes it was Joe Kennedy ..

.. the Athletics may be small-market but they have BIG-heart! ..

by Randy Bell on Mar 7, 2007 4:03 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

THE SKY IS FALLING!

I think he'll be better than the average 5th starter in the AL this year. 5th starters aren't usually very good. I think the biggest issue is Harden's health due to the dropoff between him and any 6th starter options we have right now.

"E-Lo pitched a whale of a ballgame," A's manager Ken Macha said.

by niallmack on Mar 7, 2007 4:05 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

We'll be fine.

As long as the A's kept the receipt for Saarloos and left the tags on Shafer, we can make a return.

I'm not a big believer in Joe Kennedy as a starter, but I'm not going to jump on him for this outing. I'll allow my jury to deliberate a little longer before coming to a decision.

Kettlecorn! Swishercorn!

by TurnTwo on Mar 7, 2007 4:07 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

What I Find a Little Strange is ..

.. back in '05 we had no choice but to go to Kennedy late in the season when Harden went down .. but ..

.. Why now, in '07, did the A's brain trust not think about '05 .. why are they sold on Kennedy as fifth starter when in fact thus far he hasn't done squat for the A's as a starter ??

Just wondering out loud ..

.. the Athletics may be small-market but they have BIG-heart! ..

by Randy Bell on Mar 7, 2007 4:08 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

maybe i have selective memory

but when he first came,he had a few nice games in long releif before his starts (extra innings),so he can pitch more than one inning,maybe it's something mental about starting the game,though what do i know?

With that said,Halsey has impressed me more so far this spring.

I am a merely a human being, not Google.

by J Rod on Mar 7, 2007 4:12 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Kennedy will be fine

I am looking forward to his starts. In any event, he's the best option on the table (though I like the Gaudin-as-starter option which is not on the table.)

by mikeA on Mar 7, 2007 4:10 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

Also, to the Halsey folks:

Halsey sucks.

by mikeA on Mar 7, 2007 4:16 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

but so far this spring

he's sucked less than kennedy,though yeah,i'd definatly preffer gaudin being given a look but it seems that isn't even close to being considered.

I am a merely a human being, not Google.

by J Rod on Mar 7, 2007 4:18 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

so far this spring

yeah, let's rank one above the other based on three innings.

A's v Giants "is kind of like the difference between going to see the Ramones and going to see the Bee Gees. A's fans will go see the Ramones." -BB 07/27/05

by xbhaskarx on Mar 7, 2007 4:20 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Seems pretty clear now that ..

.. if Harden goes down for any extended period of time this year, we are screwed .. kiss 2007 season goodbye ..

.. the Athletics may be small-market but they have BIG-heart! ..

by Randy Bell on Mar 7, 2007 4:21 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Joe Kennedy is the best option as a 5th starter

It's mostly because of our lack of other suitable candidates, but there are a couple of reasons to give Kennedy every chance to prove himself over Halsey/Komine/Windsor.

This is the best way to extract any value from him before he becomes a free agent. Ideally, he exceeds expectations and you trade him in July, bringing up Halsey, who's figured it out in AAA.

Halsey can still learn a few things at AAA. He's still got upside, but he's got to learn better command if he ever wants to be better than a slightly below average major league pitcher. Same goes for our other prospects. Joe's time is up. Either he figures out starting this year, or it's someone else's problem.

That said, I think if someone emerges as a better option by the end of spring training (unlikely) or late May (very possible), the A's will demote Kennedy. But this would mean they've shown they're clearly the better pitcher, not just a slight improvement over what will probably be better than average #5 starter numbers.

"The future's like, who cares?" ~Eric Chavez

by rebus on Mar 7, 2007 4:22 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

Time for some facts, so close your eyes

if you hate facts or find them distressing in any way. Joe Kennedy has started 51 games from 2004 to 2006. His ERA in those starts is 4.91. Only three teams in baseball had an ERA under 5.00 from their #5 starters in 2006, the Tigers, White Sox, and Padres. The average AL #5 starter in 2006 had an ERA of 6.22. The A's #5 starters put up a 5.16 ERA.

Joe Kennedy is not my favorite guy, but he is what he is, and he is not our biggest concern going into 2007. If I were in charge my preference for #5 starters from among pitchers available would be 1) a healthy and rehabbed Meyer (maybe in June?) 2) Gaudin 3) Kennedy 4) Windsor 5) Halsey 6) Komine 7) who fuckin' knows???

#5 starters pretty much suck throughout the league, and Kennedy is not may favorite option, but an acceptable one. If he becomes our #3 or #4 starter, we are doomed whether or not it is him starting.

I'd like to eat my lunch, but Billy just kicked me out of my office.

by BlameChannel53 on Mar 7, 2007 4:23 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

fine i guess....

I got spoiled by 2005 saarloos

I am a merely a human being, not Google.

by J Rod on Mar 7, 2007 4:27 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

who was never as good as his 2005 ERA

would suggest. right, baseballgirl?

A's v Giants "is kind of like the difference between going to see the Ramones and going to see the Bee Gees. A's fans will go see the Ramones." -BB 07/27/05

by xbhaskarx on Mar 7, 2007 4:31 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Well Said BlameChannel

.. we better hope Rich Harden defies the odds and stays healthy for once in his career ..

.. the Athletics may be small-market but they have BIG-heart! ..

by Randy Bell on Mar 7, 2007 4:29 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

it would be nice to have Meyer healthy

because he would represent the best option if someone goes down. I just hope the rotation stays healthy enough to give him at least 50 innings in Sac to regain his confidence after being injured so long. A rotation with Kennedy and Windsor/Halsey/Komine at the end would cost us the division if it lasted more than 2 weeks.

"The future's like, who cares?" ~Eric Chavez

by rebus on Mar 7, 2007 4:33 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

fifth starters

i'd rank em:
-kennedy
-gaudin
-windsor
-halsey
-komine

with meyer being the wild card. as soon as he's healthy and effective down in sacto, he should be starting.

A's v Giants "is kind of like the difference between going to see the Ramones and going to see the Bee Gees. A's fans will go see the Ramones." -BB 07/27/05

by xbhaskarx on Mar 7, 2007 4:30 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

Two Spring Outings

...and some A's fans forget what a healthy Joe Kennedy did last year. I'm glad our coaching staff has more faith in him than BBG.
Two ST games, doth net a (pre)season make. What if Kennedy was instructed to work on specific pitches for these outings? No worries, not at least until his FINAL 2 starts of ST.
This evaluation period will be one in which he will refine his mechanics, pitches etc. So give him time, the staff is. Worst case scenario, he p0itches poorly early on and goes back to the pen. No big deal, it's a long season.

"I've been accused of using too many words...I suppose that's like accusing Mozart of using too many notes." Bill King

by Gerard on Mar 7, 2007 4:32 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

To those (myself included) who never

liked Joe Kennedy as a starting pitcher option, I agree: he's fine as a #5 (he can suck about as well as all the other #5s do) but as a #4 he's the white flag we're waving on 2007.

But to those basing any opinion on these two spring training starts, I have to say: Why, every year, do so many fans forget how utterly irrelevant spring training performances are, especially the first week or two. Guys don't have full arm-strength, they're not throwing all their pitches, they might be experimenting. If you weren't alarmed about Kennedy before, then don't start being alarmed now.

And finally, I'm with MikeA: Halsey is not a very good pitcher. Like Kennedy, he might do some things ok as a #5 starter or long reliever, but once you need him to do more than that, you're in trouble.

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Mar 7, 2007 4:45 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

P.S. I mention Kennedy as a #4

with the "will 1-4 stay healthy all year" question in mind. And our 1-4 is a piece of glass, an alcoholic, a Weight Watchers "before" model, and Danny Haren. Not liking those odds.

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Mar 7, 2007 4:49 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Me neither

Haren's new beard is going to throw his body out of alignment and strain his oblique.

We should brace ourselves for Windsor now.

Kettlecorn! Swishercorn!

by TurnTwo on Mar 7, 2007 4:55 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

For the record...

...I had this written before Kennedy made a single ST start...:)

Now we have 6 or 7 months to enjoy, to cheer, cry, and scream both in frustration and happiness. ~china bob

by baseballgirl on Mar 7, 2007 4:59 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Lame to Give Up on Kennedy

He is a fine #5 starter. More upside then Halsey. We could always have Redman.

How about you wait two months before you dump on the guy?

These kinds of statements are "Ratto-esque". How about some facts to back up your feelings? Compare Kennedy to possible options and then lets see what happens.

by Jimmie Foxx on Mar 7, 2007 5:04 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

I think baseballgirl's comments are fine

In fact I think it's an excellent post--but she was never high on Kennedy as a starter, nor was I. One's opinion of a player, IMO, should not be impacted by his performance the first week of a spring training. Not even a little. But if you never thought Kennedy had what it takes to succeed as a starter (except maybe once every "career year"), you have every right to be concerned now, because the alternatives are Halsey, Windsor, and Komine--making Kennedy arguably the best option and also a lousy one unless Harden, Haren, Loiaza, and Blanton all stay healthy all year.

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Mar 7, 2007 5:12 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

For Me, seeing Kennedy get hit hard in ST ..

.. simply strengthens my longstanding suspicions that he sucks as a starter .. pardon my tongue, don't know how best to express it .. but you are right, let's wait until closer to season opener before passing judgment .. yet preliminary results did not look too good ..

.. the Athletics may be small-market but they have BIG-heart! ..

by Randy Bell on Mar 7, 2007 6:24 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Kennedy's Spring Audition

If Kennedy was simply getting tuned up for the season and experimenting with his pitch repertoire, these outings would not be so troublesome. Given all the pronouncements in the off season about his role change, spring performance is like a job interview for Kennedy. He has stated he wants to be a starter so I would expect high effort in these spring appearances. I believe his performance does take on extra importance vs. other players this spring.

If Kennedy becomes an average # 5 starter, that may be sufficient for the A's success this year; if they get lucky with the health of the other starters. Kennedy is not close to that level yet. Let’s hope he gets there.

by scarr1 on Mar 7, 2007 5:17 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

On another note

Halos Heaven sponsors Joe Kennedy's Baseball Reference page!

http://www.baseball-reference.com/k/...

How low can you go?

by Zonis on Mar 7, 2007 5:35 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

HH should advertise on anncoulter.com instead

I hear they have some excellent incentives right now.

"(Zito) swings like a girl and runs like a woman." -- Dan Haren, January 27, 2007.

by Englishmajor on Mar 7, 2007 7:44 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

I don't know the rules, but what about

Since we don't have a sure fire 5th starter, what about spliting the duties between two guys like having Windsor start, pitch say 3IP, and then hand off to Kennedy for another 3IP before giving way to the pen.

What are the rules about sending guys up and down from AAA? I would just send down one of the extra/tired pen guys to bring up Windsor/AAA starter every 5 days until some proves himself.

You'd like to think of the guys we have available, they could give us a decent 3IP.

"Baseball is like a church. Many attend, but few understand." - Wes Westrum

by oaklandfan40 on Mar 7, 2007 5:43 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

a few things wrong with that

First, it would be a waste, and would screw up both pitchers schedules.

Second, if I am not mistaken, you must be up for 15 days before being sent back down again, and visa versa.

by Zonis on Mar 7, 2007 6:12 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

You can be up

for as short as a day, but unless there's an injury you have to be down for 10 days.

In theory though you could have two guys filling that "5th starter" spot that stay on the roster for the entire season. They'd both know that they'll be pitching every 5th day and on the off chance that we need to use one of them for long relief we can swap that one out the next time the 5th start spot came up.

LaRussa tried it at one point when he was with the A's, I think, but it didn't pan out well. On the other hand, since Kennedy sucks after the 3rd inning pitched, it might not be that bad of an idea.

by DMOAS on Mar 7, 2007 6:21 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

The problem with those tricky ideas,

like "three guys pitch 3 innings each" is that it's hard enough to find one guy competent to pitch as many as 3 innings as your #5 starter; finding three guys is even more harderer. You're basically throwing your #5, #6, and #7 starters for three inning stints, and with "three to make one," you can bet somebody will be good to cough up 5-6 hits and 3-4 ER in their 3 innings--while the others are unlikely to toss shutout ball in their turns.

Basically, as long as Halsey and Windsor and Komine--and sadly, probably Kennedy--are involved, you'd better bring your bats if you want to win.

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Mar 7, 2007 6:35 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Very true

Otherwise you'd see it done more often.

I don't like Kennedy for more than 3 and if he has to start so be it. I just don't like the idea of calling him the front runner when doing so is like saying "We don't have a fifth starter" which is true.

Between Kennedy, Halsey & Windsor, I'd prefer Halsey, not b/c he's better, but b/c he's not much worse and if Kennedy is solid in relief why sacrifice that for mediocre starting?

by DMOAS on Mar 7, 2007 7:15 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

I Agree ..

.. both are lefties, if it is in the back of mind of the A's brain-trust to put a lefty into the rotation .. and Halsey WAS a starter for the D'Backs so he does have some experience in that role .. and Kennedy HAS been very effective out of the pen, didn't he have the lowest ERA of anyone in the pen last year?

.. the Athletics may be small-market but they have BIG-heart! ..

by Randy Bell on Mar 7, 2007 7:25 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

35 innings ain't a whole lot,

even for a reliever.

"The future's like, who cares?" ~Eric Chavez

by rebus on Mar 7, 2007 8:07 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

I'm actually a bit disappointed

that the A's didn't put Gaudin into the mix for the #5 spot in the rotation. I'm no Witasick fan, but the dropoff from Gaudin to Witasick as "4th righty out of the bullpen" isn't as great as Gaudin's upside is greater than any of the lame-os fighting for the right to spew mediocrity towards home plate once a week.

Gaudin, as is, could be a poor man's Bonderman (poor man's due to poorer control). Gaudin with any sort of offspeed pitch added could be a #5 starter who ends the season as a #3.

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Mar 7, 2007 8:13 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

I don't see any reason to rush Gaudin

He did a good job last season as a reliever, let's see if he can be great in that role this year. If he is, then I think they'll get serious about converting him to a starter.

"The future's like, who cares?" ~Eric Chavez

by rebus on Mar 7, 2007 8:17 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

I guess I don't see it as rushing Gaudin

to let him fight with four other guys for the #5 spot. If he isn't clearly the best bet, he goes into the bullpen to be a key member of the relief corps. That scenario happens a lot in camps with guys around Gaudin's age, and I don't think it's traumatic in any way when the pitcher winds up back in the bullpen for another year.

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Mar 7, 2007 8:23 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

I'm with you man

I was really disappointed when Geren told Blez that Gaudin was not even going to be considered as a starter.

I'd like to eat my lunch, but Billy just kicked me out of my office.

by BlameChannel53 on Mar 7, 2007 8:20 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Compare to our Competition and ..

.. it is clear we have our work cut out for us this year .. as Michael Urban has said, in his mlb.com articles and on radio with Marty Lurie, -- the A's just aren't as deep this year as last year ..

.. Angels have {without "Bart"} for starting five:
Lackey, Santana, Escobar, Weaver, Saunders

.. that is a Starting Five without the 2005 Cy Young !! And from what I read recently he is on his way back to full health, so imagine how deep they are when Bartolo Colon returns ..

.. Yikes .. again, we better hope Rich Harden has a breakout year .. I know I am hoping against hope ..

.. the Athletics may be small-market but they have BIG-heart! ..

by Randy Bell on Mar 7, 2007 6:20 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

Feeds my point that Kennedy is not our problem

Kennedy is as good or better than Saunders, but the Angels have a potentially great 1-4 without Colon and a potentially great 1-5 with Colon. If the Angels' rotation is as good as they could be, we will need to significantly outscore them or get breakout performances from all of our starters. The Angels have a legitimate chance of five starters with ERAs under 4.00, and a lot of good things would have to happen for us to match that (even if we had Zito, a healthy Harden, and Kennedy was back in Colorado.)

I'd like to eat my lunch, but Billy just kicked me out of my office.

by BlameChannel53 on Mar 7, 2007 6:34 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Unfortunately the A's Offense ..

.. isn't likely to significantly outscore anybody. The A's as currently configured just don't score a lot of runs, I just can't see that -- although like all A's fans I would LOVE to be pleasantly surprised -- but let's face it we are NOT the Chicago White Sox or New York Yankees, offensively speaking .. I hate to sound negative but realistically it is easy to see why the Angels are being picked to win the division this year ..

.. the Athletics may be small-market but they have BIG-heart! ..

by Randy Bell on Mar 7, 2007 6:48 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Neither are the Angels

The Angels have a very strong chance of having the worst offense in the AL. We may not be great on offense, but we have the potential to outscore the Angels by 50-100 runs, and if we do that we should be right there with them. If the Angels pitch as they are capable and their offense clicks, we are in trouble.

I'd like to eat my lunch, but Billy just kicked me out of my office.

by BlameChannel53 on Mar 7, 2007 7:18 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

BadVlad makes them doubly dangerous ..

.. because as we all know, he can get hot and carry them offensively ..

.. we don't have a "superstar" like Vlad -- well last year we had Big Frank but he's gone -- I would not put Piazza in that same class as an offensive threat, myself ..

.. the Athletics may be small-market but they have BIG-heart! ..

by Randy Bell on Mar 7, 2007 7:28 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Relax a bit

Saunders has only ever pitched 80 innings in 15 games, and Weaver has only 123 innings in 19 games. Santana has only pitched 337.2 innings in 56 games, just a little fewer than Blanton. (Haren and Kennedy have each pitched more innings than the three of them combined!) Sometimes pitchers don't put up the same kind of numbers as hitters start to figure them out.

Weaver and Escobar are both dealing with tendinitis. Colon is also injured and only managed 10 starts last year, just one more than Harden. We all don't know how pitchers recover from injuries. Sometimes they bounce all the way back, sometimes they don't.

This isn't to say that the Angels are not formidable at all: they clearly are the team to beat in AL West this year. This is to say that everybody in the game has to deal with uncertainties, and assuming the best of your opponents results in unnecessary stomach acid.

by GlassHeart on Mar 7, 2007 7:28 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Thanks ..

.. those stats, well said, - put my mind at ease a little bit. Maybe we do have a good fighting chance even though clearly not as deep this year as last. I guess I am close to developing an "injury phobia" so far as the A's are concerned, heh. Just seems like we have had MORE than our share of foils and troubles the last few years.

.. the Athletics may be small-market but they have BIG-heart! ..

by Randy Bell on Mar 7, 2007 7:38 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

My take.

If our fifth starter stays healthy and has an ERA under 5, I'll be happy. I'm fairly confident Kennedy can meet those requirements.

As for him having to move up to #4 due to injury, that wouldn't be so good. But starters 2-4, particularily Haren and Blanton, have proven to be fairly durable over their careers, so I'm not too worried about them going down.

And if/when Harden has to be shelved. Well, we're screwed, no matter what Joe Kennedy does.

"We've come a long way, and I'm not talking about Virginia Slims, either." - Art Howe

by EastCoastA on Mar 7, 2007 6:27 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

That is the problem, lack of depth ..

EastCoast said: "And if/when Harden has to be shelved. Well, we're screwed, no matter what Joe Kennedy does."

When we lost Zito to f.a. and traded Sarloos, we lost depth in the starting rotation,- and that is the basic problem. All the suggested alternative starters are not good and some really suck, to be frank: Kennedy, Halsey, Windsor, Komine -- I have little confidence in any of them to succeed ..

.. Maybe some of us start season-long Rich Harden Health Prayer Vigils at our respective church or synagogue of choice ?? .. {grin} ..

.. the Athletics may be small-market but they have BIG-heart! ..

by Randy Bell on Mar 7, 2007 6:36 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

I'd say that's about it:

With Harden, the A's can contend because pitching is that important and Harden/Haren/Loaiza/Blanton, combined with a deep bullpen, will keep you in a lot of games. Without Harden, the A's are pretty much screwed regardless of whether our #5 starter is a little above average or a little below average.

No pressure, Rich.

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Mar 7, 2007 6:38 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Kotsay to have back surgery ..

San Jose Mercury article:

A's Kotsay to have back surgery

Well that puts another question-mark into our season ..

.. the Athletics may be small-market but they have BIG-heart! ..

by Randy Bell on Mar 7, 2007 7:44 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

Well, better now than later in the season

Get well soon Kots! Get that surgery over with and get back on the field.

"hunting for fresh meat"

by Masaryk on Mar 7, 2007 8:13 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

I'm currrently working on a book

The working title is, "Things It Would Have Been Nice To Figure Out In November".

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Mar 7, 2007 8:14 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Sounds like

you won't be hurting for material.

"$18 mil for 200+ inings, 15+ wins, and a sub 4.00 ERA with no arrests. Fair deal." ~some Giants fan

by Elvez on Mar 7, 2007 9:04 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

A's fans are spoiled

We complained about Loaiza, and frankly he was much better than most teams 5th starters.

I guess the point I'm trying to make is that ALL 5th starters arent very good. Kennedy, Windsor, Gaudin...doesnt really matter. EastCoastA even said he would be happy if the A's 5th starter has an ERA under 5. Thats pretty garbage to me.

"...we don't score six, seven runs. We score three, four runs and play defense and pitch" - Eric Chavez

by pickinmachine on Mar 7, 2007 8:47 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

I agree but the point,

which I think is valid, is that if and when the A's suffer a setback from somewhere in the 1-4 spots, Kennedy and the next-best fill-in will be inadequate. In comparison, the Angels are currently down Colon but still field a good rotation. I'm not sure that three of the A's best four starters, plus Kennedy, plus go from there, can compete.

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Mar 7, 2007 9:02 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

definetly

and I think that point is without a doubt being driven home this offseason.

If Harden can't stay healthy this year, the A's will not win the division.

"...we don't score six, seven runs. We score three, four runs and play defense and pitch" - Eric Chavez

by pickinmachine on Mar 7, 2007 9:13 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Unless--just trying to be optimistic here--

Harden injures himself in a brawl with John Lackey, a brawl caused by the gruesome beaning of Vlad Guerrero.

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Mar 7, 2007 9:36 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Antonio Perez

Is going to show everybody that he's IS the real deal this year. We will all soon forget the name Marco Scutaro.

"I'd like to reference a brilliant post from Left Coast Lumber today" - notsellingjeans

by methodrampage on Mar 8, 2007 1:36 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

RIDICULOUS

To say that Blanton is hardly a 4. Most playoff teams would gladly have him there, and on many teams he would be a 2 (Nats, D-Rays, Royals, Rockies, Mariners, Pirates, Twins) or 3 (Mets, Braves, D-Backs, Rangers, O's, Jays).

I agree about Kennedy though.

by Panda on Mar 8, 2007 1:42 PM PST reply actions 0 recs