Harden Cy Young & our rotation..
by norcalfan on Mar 28, 2007 10:55 AM PDT
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PrintJust yesterday I was in the begining stages of what will play out to be a season long arguement with some Padres Fans. The issue? Rotations. They actually went so far as to create a premium work wasting poster board about 4'x 5' quoting my statment, " If Rich Harden is healthy, he could be the best pitcher in basball". Needless to say they found this commical and thought it worthy of posting using a fork lift, thus placing it out of my reach. But here is the thing, even if I could reach this poster to take it down, I don't think I would.
Earlier I read Nicos post regarding St numbers and the waste they are. If I were to disagree, and then based by projections of our starting rotation, I would say we are in for a long year, but in reality, I agree with him whole heartedly. I believe that in ST, our guys are only really working on a few things such as mechanics and even specific pitches from outing to outing, hence smearing their numbers.
The question I ask of AN is this; Where do we feel our rotation will be in the upcomming year? Further, if heathy ( I hate saying that) IS Rich Harden capable of being the best pitcher in baseball. My opinion is simple, good and yes. I think Harden has the tools to be better than most in this league as well as still possess a simple advantage due to his health. Barry the "san fran" treat Zito in his Cy year was still a novelty. Batters had not seen enough of him, (IMHO) so his stuff was brutal. After the league got to know his 88 mph fastball and hook, he went from elite to slightly above average, unless your name is Sabean.
I think the import pitchers, (see Red Sox) will have good years, but I think Harden has the same advantage as he has not been seen enough to really be "known" by oposing hitters. Therefore, here, right now I am laying it out to you AN......harden will win the Cy Young this year. You tell me, am I just dreamin' or will Harden be our eternal flame.....thrower?
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JINX!
Don't say that Canadian pitcher's name in the same sentence as "Cy Young" before the AllStar break!
Hey, anytime...
I found your work inspirational over the last couple of seasons... ;)
except
if you look at the stats, harden has better numbers than Santana. I think if healthy, he will definitely win it.
better stats, far fewer games
much smaller sample.
Santana has bee arguably MLB's best pticher for several years.
Does that mean Barry has a good chance
of winning the CY this year, seeing as how he's still pretty novel in the NL?
As far as the A's rotation, I sadly can't see it being any better than last year's.
- 25-30 starts from Harden
- Haren will be just as good as last year, possibly bringing his ERA below 4.00 this time
- Loaiza will struggle with injuries and have an ERA in the 5's
- Blanton will replicate his inconsistencies of last year and be around 4.80 or so
- Kennedy won't have a better year than Mark Redman
I guess that does make it a little better than last year's, with Harden getting 5x as many starts, and Haren improving some. Aside from that, I don't see any promise though.
by fadedash on Mar 28, 2007 11:16 AM PDT reply actions
I guess that was a little missleading...
Not so much that the league hadn't seen him in person, more so that the league probably spent more "tape" time with Zito after the Cy Young year, so IMO no. I do think think he will have a better year than last year with the Giants though, being that tape is much more applicable after seeing it live.
Oh, he's elite, and has to be on any top 5 list
talent wise. Johan would be #1 and then the next 4 can be chose and listed about in any order between a bevy of pitchers (Webb, Peavy, Halladay, Harden, Felix, some others I'm probably forgetting)
The problem with Harden is the health issues. While he seems to be 100% ready now, will he be able to handle the full season? He's never pitched 200 innings (if I recall correctly), so who knows how his body will react in July and August.
Bottom line is I'll be content if we get 25 starts from him.
Also, here's some Harden support from Schilling.
"I think the best (splitter) in the game, active pitcher, right now would be a toss up between Rich Harden and Papelbon. I can't think of many others I see much but those two guys throw it incredibly hard with a ton of movement."
and when discussing which pitcher and hitter he would start a franchise with:
"If you could guarantee me 5 years of health, and I was building a franchise I'd take Harden and Sizemore."
by fadedash on Mar 28, 2007 12:08 PM PDT up reply actions
Dude,he totally asked you about Haren, not Harden
I don't want to dog on you too much over it, but man, how hard did we jump on the Rockies announcers on that one TV broadcast a couple of weeks ago. And how many times have we made fun of people for saying Steve Swisher or Fred Kendall when they meant Nick and Jason?
You're obviously really knowledgeable, so you totally get a pass on this one. I also was giddy with excitement when I read that part on Shilling's blog, too. I think it's awesome that other players, especially pitchers with as good a career as Shilling are so high on Rich Harden. Totally effin' awesome.
hahahah wow. didnt even notice that, oops!
as far as Haren goes, he's probably on the cusp of being elite. From my understanding, his problem is that he falls into predictive patterns and thus has the tendency to give up the long ball at a higher than average rate. Supposedly, this is why he's working on the cutter so much.
As far as ranking him, off the top of my head, I'd say he's probably an inch behind Lackey, who (again off the top of my head) is probably just outside the top 10.
by fadedash on Mar 28, 2007 1:15 PM PDT up reply actions
yeah you have to consider
harden's era was inflated because each time he got injured, he left guys on base, and they all scored.
Harden's era will be about 2.5
Our rotation is gonna hurt us this year.
It'll be the thing that we are weeping tears of blood about come mid-June.
"No. It's Oakland."
it will proabably be above average
but it does have potential to be one of the best if blanton pitches like he did his rookie year, and loaiza pitches like he did when he was healthy.
Last Year the A's Were Overrated in Pre-Season &
.. this year {i think} they are under-rated. Some respectable publications have them being slightly under .500, even the recent Yahoo Sports predictions has them winning only 85 games {to the Angels' 90}. Btw I think that Yahoo article is "full of it", -- IMHO, they have the AL-Central wayyyy under-performing and the AL-East wayyyyy over-performing - I guess Dice-K and the hundreds of millions that the Evil Empires vainly spend, turns a few heads even those you would think would know better ..
by Randy Bell on Mar 28, 2007 9:42 PM PDT up reply actions
i don't think last year's team was overrated
look at what they accomplished when injured.
and yes, i think this year's team is underrated, the A's will be fine.
I Just meant, relative to ..
.. going all the way, winning the W.S., winning 100+ games, etc. - last year's predictions proved to be overly optimistic - and I think/hope this year's predictions prove to be overly pessimistic. :) One thing I learned last year, you cannot predict nor control the injuries, they will be what they will be .. but most definitely I am not putting down nor minimizing what the A's accomplished last year; as you say it was remarkable considering all the injuries .. :)
by Randy Bell on Mar 28, 2007 11:18 PM PDT up reply actions
I could see it going either way
...You could also see Harden and Loaiza on the DL and Blanton pitch more like his peripherals than his win total. Or, worse, you could see Harden on the DL and Loaiza pitching when he should be on the DL.
And I'll be nervous each and every time Joe Kennedy takes the mound.
I Think We'll Have a Good Year ..
.. Whether we have enough talent to beat the Angels this year, remains to be seen . We are definitely due better luck injury-wise, as last year was the absolute worst in memory for us in the injury-dept ..
.. I think if we don't beat the Angels this year it will be because of their superior rotation. I think we will have enough offense. Injuries could make the difference - already the Angels have been catching more of the "I-Bug" than us, let's hope it stays that way ..
by Randy Bell on Mar 28, 2007 6:11 PM PDT reply actions
I think Haren is the guy that joines the upper
echelon of AL SP's this year. 18 wins, 3.4 ERA.
Funny you should say that--
Go Danny Go!
.. we need you this year! .. {g} ..
by Randy Bell on Mar 28, 2007 6:47 PM PDT up reply actions
one quibble
Zito has been much, much better than slightly above average over the last 4 years.
An average starting pitcher is a little worse than league average, because relievers have better ERAs than starters (call it 4 percent worse by ERA)
One stat I like most, because it combines innings pitched with Runs Allowed, is Pitching Runs Created over at the Hardball Times. By this measure Zito has been the 13th, 7th, and 4th most valuable/effective pitcher in the league over the last three years.
Now I don't know how much money that makes him worth, but he has been a really, really good pitcher even these last three years.
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