Is the writing on the wall for DJ?
by EastCoastA on Mar 1, 2007 12:46 PM PST
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PrintBefore I get started, I know that injuries, such as the one suffered by Ronnie Mac, or trades could make this entire diary moot, and by the end of Spring Training there won't be any real debate as to who makes the 25 man roster. But these are the things I think about when I'm stuck in traffic and working out, and this is yet another reason I'm glad AN is around, so I can discuss this sort of thing with folks who don't think I'm nuts.
Okay, the way I see it, 24 of the 25 spots on the Major League roster are locked up. (Again, this is barring trades, even ones we'd all like to see.)
- Piazza
- Kendall
- Swisher
- Ellis
- Crosby
- Chavez
- Stewart
- Kotsay
- Bradley
- Melhuse
- Scutaro
- Perez
- Kielty
- Harden
- Haren
- Loaiza
- Blanton
- Kennedy
- Street
- Duke
- Calero
- Embree
- Gaudin
- Witasick
Halsey: The clear leader for the coveted #12 pitcher slot. Of course, the A's may not carry 12 pitchers, though they have in recent years. Halsey is left-handed and could serve as a long reliever/spot starter, which would balance out the bullpen as presently constructed.
Goleski: Admittedly, I don't know much about Goleski, except for his numbers and what I've read on here. However, a right-handed power bat in the outfield is something the A's could really use down the line, and something tells me Beane didn't go to the trouble of snagging Goleski just to have him for a month.
Durazo: Barring injuries, I think Durazo will be DHing in Sacto come April. But he's still someone to watch this Spring. I really believe we'll thank heaven for the "Holy Grail" before '07 is over.
DJ: Finally, I come around to the title character of the diary. Now, I don't know if the A's players read the team website, (or read at all, for that matter) but if I'm DJ, I'd be really concerned about some of the things Geren has said in the past couple of days. First, Geren said he wants to get Melhuse more at-bats, and he'll take grounders at first and third. Then, the following day, Geren said that Stewart would get the majority of starts in left, while Swisher would get the most at 1st base. Yikes.
I can see Swisher settling into being a full time first baseman, with Melhuse and Kotsay serving as rare backups. In the outfield, I see Stewart playing in left most days if healthy, Keilty playing against lefites, and Goleski getting spot starts, particularly when Kotsay's back is hurting.
If I had to guess, I think Halsey will make the team by way of a Witasick trade, but otherwise, he starts the season in AAA.
As for DJ? I'm afraid he'll be sent packing by the end of this month. After that great start in '05, I had high hopes for him, but I'm afraid he's AAAA all the way. And I can't be the only person that's skeptical about the whole "double vision" thing. He sure seemed to see the ball well right when he got back to Sacremento.
Are DJ's days numbered? Is there hope for him to continue to wear the green and gold? Please let me know I'm not the only nutjob who thinks about these things!
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Replace Kielty
by Ben25 on Mar 1, 2007 12:53 PM PST reply actions
That's true.
If Goleski
by Ben25 on Mar 1, 2007 2:52 PM PST up reply actions
double vision
DJ DJ : : REPORT REPORT TO TO SACTO SACTO
Horizontally?
that was what DJ sees
Kotsay at 1B
It was Kotsay's idea.
in other words ...
Esteban writes the wine-up.
...too much?
Does Kotsay even know where first base is?
I can't see why Beane would keep...
DJ's spot might be saved by...
so that's what happened to Lilly?
That'll teach him to
Had the same thought
If Kotsay requires surgery, then D.J.'s going to be needed unless he is traded for a backup centerfielder...
by Charlie Brown on Mar 2, 2007 5:30 PM PST up reply actions
awesome
And Joe Kennedy has the chance to win ten games or more for the first time in his career. Very exciting.
Maybe a poll question: A completely healthy pitching staff or a completely healthy positional staff? Assuming that the other option would not be healthy. To the creator of this word list: what kind of exercise do you in car while in traffic?
by azagtooth on Mar 1, 2007 7:34 PM PST reply actions
I'd take the position players
On the flip side, that means that the Pitching Staff will be just injured as normal, which outside of Harden and Duke, is pretty much the same.
I think Dj will make the team
And then another thing to think about; come next year, Piazza will be gone and it might be a good idea to keep Dj around if he does well and make him our DH.
That would make our 2008 projected lineup look like:
C1 Suzuki
1B Barton
2B Ellis
3B Chavez
SS Crosby
LF Buck
RF Swisher
CF Kotsay
DH Johnson
There is a possibility that we try to resign Bradley though. Especially if he doesn't have an incident (though they always happen the 2nd year with him, remember that.) He we do resign Bradley, it could mean that Kotsay becomes a very expensive 4th outfielder, something that he is threatening to do already come to think of it.
My 25 Man for 2006
- C1 Kendall
- 1B Johnson
- 2B Ellis (SS, 3B)
- SS Crosby
- 3B Chavez
- RF Bradley (CF, LF)
- LF Swisher (1B, RF, CF)
- CF Kotsay (1B)
- DH Piazza (C3)
- OF Goleski
- 2B Scutaro (SS, 3B, LF)
- C2 Melhuse (1B, 3B)
- OF Stewart
- OF Kielty
- SP Harden
- SP Haren
- SP Loaiza
- SP Blanton
- SP Kennedy
- RP Street
- RP Duchscherer
- RP Calero
- RP Gaudin
- RP Embree
- RP Halsey
I don't think we'd see Ellis at 3B.
Quite honestly...
The back is dead already, his stats aren't over the top terrific, considering how much he's paid, and though I love his D, I'd love that salary to stay in the bank and maybe be spent keeping someone else next season even more.
problem is, who would take him on
60-day DL?
Beane, like an obstinate amateur day trader, fell in love with Kotsay's "fundamentals" and failed to sell high.
The only real option is to stash him on the DL and keep him from hurting the team.
or...
The bigger obstacle to trading Kotsay then wasn't some sort of overarching weakness that Beane has for supposed Lenny Dykstra clones (even though he won't really let them unleash their inner Dykstra by letting them, say, steal bases), but the fact that the A's had rather recently acquired him after a lengthy pursuit. Hard to then turn around and trade a guy like that (in addition to the point I listed initially, that the A's were still going for it in 2005, despite 2006 having already been designated as "the year").
Oh, and do Erubiel Durazo and Mark Redman have much in common with Lenny Dykstra?
"the bigger obstacle"
But let me get ¶ 2 straight: "the bigger obstacle" to ditching Kotsay was not Beane's emotional attachment to Kotsay, but rather ... Beane's emotional attachment to Kotsay?
How, exactly, does Beane's lengthy pursuit -- and his consequent refusal to realize a return on his investment of time and dollars and opportunity cost -- mitigate my point?
Doesn't it, in fact, demonstrate that what had once -- when Kotsay was still relatively young, healthy, and (potentially) productive -- been an empirically based desire had, by the time Beane actually got his hands on Kotsay, become an emotional investment, running contrary to the actual traits of that obscure object of desire?
I'll grant you the paragraph symbol itself
Actually, given what I posted here, your counterpoint is admittedly pretty valid. I think I refined my point a little better in the response to BC53 in the other thread (I'll just keep re-directing you from one thread to another, here). To reiterate what I said there, Beane's evaluation of, say, Hatteberg was clearly marred by something approximating "emotional attachment." Hatteberg was acquired cheaply, mainly precipitated by pure poverty, but you could hardly say the same about granting him the extension and especially that last full season of AB's.
For Kotsay, though, it's probably better described as a a bit of a failure to recognize a sunk cost, I guess you could say. The cost being not just Ramon Hernandez and T Long (the latter probably wasn't even a cost), but all the time and energy spent chasing a player who had once shown considerable upside...but was actually beginning to decline, so much time had elapsed since Kotsay took off the Fullerton jersey for the last time. Perhaps even an emotional attachment of another kind...an emotional attachment to one's own effort and judgment, ego basically.
In sum, Beane made mistakes with Hatteberg and Kotsay; he couldn't let go at the proper times. But the root causes can't be chalked up to a desire to have 25 Lenny Dykstras. For Hatteberg, intelligent anti-Dykstra that he was, it may have been that he wished he had 25 Dads on the roster. Kotsay, though...the desire to "be right", basically. Bought himself more time to be proven right by extending him rather than letting him ply his trade with the Pinstripes, and dug himself a bigger hole in the process.
ALL that being said, I do also think the decision to keep Kotsay at that specific time was as much due to being in contention in 2005. The elaboration was to clear up what I feel was the other part of the equation, which hadn't been clear prior.
by Cutthemullet on Mar 2, 2007 10:38 AM PST up reply actions
2005, 2000 and schmive.
And don't tell me nobody will take on his contract - have you seen what Texas gives 30yr old league average guys? Gil Meche makes the equivalent of a small island nation's GDP and we can't move a guy who hits a consistent .275 and patrols center field like a vaccuum?
Remember, someone took Byrnes off our hands... and liked it.
option7 :)
the sunk costs is a problem
throughout sports. management usually has a hard time moving on after they waste a bunch of money on a useless player.
... but not on a useless manager, apparently
Given Beane's penny-pinching tendencies and his obstinacy to pursue league-minimum replacements for sunk-cost on-field failures, I think we can hazard a guess that Beane really couldn't stand Macha.
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