Is the writing on the wall for DJ?

by EastCoastA on Mar 1, 2007 12:46 PM PST Comment 37 comments

Before I get started, I know that injuries, such as the one suffered by Ronnie Mac, or trades could make this entire diary moot, and by the end of Spring Training there won't be any real debate as to who makes the 25 man roster. But these are the things I think about when I'm stuck in traffic and working out, and this is yet another reason I'm glad AN is around, so I can discuss this sort of thing with folks who don't think I'm nuts.

Okay, the way I see it, 24 of the 25 spots on the Major League roster are locked up. (Again, this is barring trades, even ones we'd all like to see.)

Piazza
Kendall
Swisher
Ellis
Crosby
Chavez
Stewart
Kotsay
Bradley
Melhuse
Scutaro
Perez
Kielty
Harden
Haren
Loaiza
Blanton
Kennedy
Street
Duke
Calero
Embree
Gaudin
Witasick

The way I see it, there are 4 legit candidates for the final spot. In no particular order:

Halsey: The clear leader for the coveted #12 pitcher slot. Of course, the A's may not carry 12 pitchers, though they have in recent years. Halsey is left-handed and could serve as a long reliever/spot starter, which would balance out the bullpen as presently constructed.

Goleski: Admittedly, I don't know much about Goleski, except for his numbers and what I've read on here. However, a right-handed power bat in the outfield is something the A's could really use down the line, and something tells me Beane didn't go to the trouble of snagging Goleski just to have him for a month.

Durazo: Barring injuries, I think Durazo will be DHing in Sacto come April. But he's still someone to watch this Spring. I really believe we'll thank heaven for the "Holy Grail" before '07 is over.

DJ: Finally, I come around to the title character of the diary. Now, I don't know if the A's players read the team website, (or read at all, for that matter) but if I'm DJ, I'd be really concerned about some of the things Geren has said in the past couple of days. First, Geren said he wants to get Melhuse more at-bats, and he'll take grounders at first and third. Then, the following day, Geren said that Stewart would get the majority of starts in left, while Swisher would get the most at 1st base. Yikes.

I can see Swisher settling into being a full time first baseman, with Melhuse and Kotsay serving as rare backups. In the outfield, I see Stewart playing in left most days if healthy, Keilty playing against lefites, and Goleski getting spot starts, particularly when Kotsay's back is hurting.

If I had to guess, I think Halsey will make the team by way of a Witasick trade, but otherwise, he starts the season in AAA.

As for DJ? I'm afraid he'll be sent packing by the end of this month. After that great start in '05, I had high hopes for him, but I'm afraid he's AAAA all the way. And I can't be the only person that's skeptical about the whole "double vision" thing. He sure seemed to see the ball well right when he got back to Sacremento.

Are DJ's days numbered? Is there hope for him to continue to wear the green and gold? Please let me know I'm not the only nutjob who thinks about these things!

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Replace Kielty

with Goleski. Kielty needs surgery and will more than likely start the year in AAA. So, three legit candidates for one spot.

by Ben25 on Mar 1, 2007 12:53 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

That's true.

But what happens when Kielty comes back?

"We've come a long way, and I'm not talking about Virginia Slims, either." - Art Howe

by EastCoastA on Mar 1, 2007 1:15 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

If Goleski

is playing well than Kielty gets shipped off or rots in AAA until there's an injury.

by Ben25 on Mar 1, 2007 2:52 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

one or two guys should be dead by then.

"The future's like, who cares?" ~Eric Chavez

by rebus on Mar 1, 2007 2:55 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

double vision

writing on the wall... would DJ even be able to read it if there was?

A's v Giants "is kind of like the difference between going to see the Ramones and going to see the Bee Gees. A's fans will go see the Ramones." -BB 07/27/05

by xbhaskarx on Mar 1, 2007 12:56 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

DJ DJ : : REPORT REPORT TO TO SACTO SACTO

... our computers then decode what it is the monkey's intending to do ... @('.')@

by monkeyball on Mar 1, 2007 1:37 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

No, Monkeyball, he has Double Vision

You need to write the message halved.

by Zonis on Mar 1, 2007 2:29 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Horizontally?

Would the top half say "indoors"?

"Everyone knows about it, but nobody's heard of it. Oh, it exists." ~ Dan Johnson

by Poppy on Mar 1, 2007 2:53 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

that was what DJ sees

... our computers then decode what it is the monkey's intending to do ... @('.')@

by monkeyball on Mar 1, 2007 2:56 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Kotsay at 1B

I really want to know whose lame-ass idea this was last season, and whether Geren and Beane are dumb enough to try it again this year.

... our computers then decode what it is the monkey's intending to do ... @('.')@

by monkeyball on Mar 1, 2007 1:38 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

It was Kotsay's idea.

But Macha's communication led Kotsay to believe that he was supposed to butcher first base.

"We've come a long way, and I'm not talking about Virginia Slims, either." - Art Howe

by EastCoastA on Mar 1, 2007 2:19 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

in other words ...

The players write the whineup.

... our computers then decode what it is the monkey's intending to do ... @('.')@

by monkeyball on Mar 1, 2007 3:27 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Esteban writes the wine-up.

Blanton writes the rinds up...

...too much?

"Kotsay is 31... Kotsay's back is 127." - Jeepers

by Ozzz on Mar 2, 2007 1:49 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Does Kotsay even know where first base is?

He never gets there... that's for sure.

by brenarlo on Mar 1, 2007 2:38 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

I can't see why Beane would keep...

Antonio Perez on the 25 man roster. There have to be better options... even if it is Lou Merloni.

"When I got injured, I felt disrespected. Waaannnh!" - Mark Kotsay

by FoolshGame22 on Mar 1, 2007 4:48 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

DJ's spot might be saved by...

Mark "The Herniated One" Kotsay.

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Mar 1, 2007 5:10 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

so that's what happened to Lilly?

But whose knee ate him? Cindi's?

... our computers then decode what it is the monkey's intending to do ... @('.')@

by monkeyball on Mar 1, 2007 5:20 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

That'll teach him to

get his knees at the Knee Company. Which can be abbreviated, of course, to the Nico.

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Mar 1, 2007 7:23 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Had the same thought

If Kotsay requires surgery, then D.J.'s going to be needed unless he is traded for a backup centerfielder...

Charlie Brown GO A'S WIN

by Charlie Brown on Mar 2, 2007 5:30 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

awesome

I am very excited about the prospect of seeing Embree whip some knee-high fastballs. He will probably be the teams most valuable reliever.

And Joe Kennedy has the chance to win ten games or more for the first time in his career. Very exciting.

Maybe a poll question: A completely healthy pitching staff or a completely healthy positional staff? Assuming that the other option would not be healthy. To the creator of this word list: what kind of exercise do you in car while in traffic?

by azagtooth on Mar 1, 2007 7:34 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

I'd take the position players

Because they are more injury prone and we NEED them to be healthy to win.

On the flip side, that means that the Pitching Staff will be just injured as normal, which outside of Harden and Duke, is pretty much the same.

by Zonis on Mar 1, 2007 11:19 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

I think Dj will make the team

He is out of options, and I think the A's will keep him and use him at least until Barton is ready to take over. This is not to mention that he is out of options. But even so, trading Dj now would mean we'd get basically nothing for him, whereas if he does good, we can get something.

And then another thing to think about; come next year, Piazza will be gone and it might be a good idea to keep Dj around if he does well and make him our DH.

That would make our 2008 projected lineup look like:

C1 Suzuki
1B Barton
2B Ellis
3B Chavez
SS Crosby
LF Buck
RF Swisher
CF Kotsay
DH Johnson

There is a possibility that we try to resign Bradley though. Especially if he doesn't have an incident (though they always happen the 2nd year with him, remember that.) He we do resign Bradley, it could mean that Kotsay becomes a very expensive 4th outfielder, something that he is threatening to do already come to think of it.

by Zonis on Mar 1, 2007 11:23 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

My 25 Man for 2006

would be:

C1 Kendall
1B Johnson
2B Ellis (SS, 3B)
SS Crosby
3B Chavez
RF Bradley (CF, LF)
LF Swisher (1B, RF, CF)
CF Kotsay (1B)
DH Piazza (C3)
OF Goleski
2B Scutaro (SS, 3B, LF)
C2 Melhuse (1B, 3B)
OF Stewart
OF Kielty
SP Harden
SP Haren
SP Loaiza
SP Blanton
SP Kennedy
RP Street
RP Duchscherer
RP Calero
RP Gaudin
RP Embree
RP Halsey

by Zonis on Mar 1, 2007 11:27 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

I don't think we'd see Ellis at 3B.

Maybe 1B, though.

"Everyone knows about it, but nobody's heard of it. Oh, it exists." ~ Dan Johnson

by Poppy on Mar 2, 2007 8:02 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Quite honestly...

..if someone is to go, I'd be putting forward Kotsay.

The back is dead already, his stats aren't over the top terrific, considering how much he's paid, and though I love his D, I'd love that salary to stay in the bank and maybe be spent keeping someone else next season even more.

"Kotsay is 31... Kotsay's back is 127." - Jeepers

by Ozzz on Mar 2, 2007 1:52 AM PST reply actions 0 recs

problem is, who would take him on

without the A's eating some of that salary? His back problems are no secret.

by OaklandSi on Mar 2, 2007 6:30 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

60-day DL?

Absolutely. Not only is no one taking Kotsay w/o the A's paying 75% of his salary, they're not sending us anyone of value in return.

Beane, like an obstinate amateur day trader, fell in love with Kotsay's "fundamentals" and failed to sell high.

The only real option is to stash him on the DL and keep him from hurting the team.

... our computers then decode what it is the monkey's intending to do ... @('.')@

by monkeyball on Mar 2, 2007 9:39 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

or...

like a professional GM who didn't want to compromise his team's chances of competing that year (2005) by selling off a key player at the deadline...

The bigger obstacle to trading Kotsay then wasn't some sort of overarching weakness that Beane has for supposed Lenny Dykstra clones (even though he won't really let them unleash their inner Dykstra by letting them, say, steal bases), but the fact that the A's had rather recently acquired him after a lengthy pursuit. Hard to then turn around and trade a guy like that (in addition to the point I listed initially, that the A's were still going for it in 2005, despite 2006 having already been designated as "the year").

Oh, and do Erubiel Durazo and Mark Redman have much in common with Lenny Dykstra?

www.????????????.com...the "launch" is coming soon...or grand opening in brick-and-mortar terms...I'll be all over the DLD the day it's ready.

by Cutthemullet on Mar 2, 2007 9:56 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

"the bigger obstacle"

I'll grant you ¶ 1 and 3.

But let me get ¶ 2 straight: "the bigger obstacle" to ditching Kotsay was not Beane's emotional attachment to Kotsay, but rather ... Beane's emotional attachment to Kotsay?

How, exactly, does Beane's lengthy pursuit -- and his consequent refusal to realize a return on his investment of time and dollars and opportunity cost -- mitigate my point?

Doesn't it, in fact, demonstrate that what had once -- when Kotsay was still relatively young, healthy, and (potentially) productive -- been an empirically based desire had, by the time Beane actually got his hands on Kotsay, become an emotional investment, running contrary to the actual traits of that obscure object of desire?

... our computers then decode what it is the monkey's intending to do ... @('.')@

by monkeyball on Mar 2, 2007 10:09 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

I'll grant you the paragraph symbol itself

That looks quite nice, and I don't know what combination of keys I'd have to press simultaneously to make that appear.

Actually, given what I posted here, your counterpoint is admittedly pretty valid. I think I refined my point a little better in the response to BC53 in the other thread (I'll just keep re-directing you from one thread to another, here). To reiterate what I said there, Beane's evaluation of, say, Hatteberg was clearly marred by something approximating "emotional attachment." Hatteberg was acquired cheaply, mainly precipitated by pure poverty, but you could hardly say the same about granting him the extension and especially that last full season of AB's.

For Kotsay, though, it's probably better described as a a bit of a failure to recognize a sunk cost, I guess you could say. The cost being not just Ramon Hernandez and T Long (the latter probably wasn't even a cost), but all the time and energy spent chasing a player who had once shown considerable upside...but was actually beginning to decline, so much time had elapsed since Kotsay took off the Fullerton jersey for the last time. Perhaps even an emotional attachment of another kind...an emotional attachment to one's own effort and judgment, ego basically.

In sum, Beane made mistakes with Hatteberg and Kotsay; he couldn't let go at the proper times. But the root causes can't be chalked up to a desire to have 25 Lenny Dykstras. For Hatteberg, intelligent anti-Dykstra that he was, it may have been that he wished he had 25 Dads on the roster. Kotsay, though...the desire to "be right", basically. Bought himself more time to be proven right by extending him rather than letting him ply his trade with the Pinstripes, and dug himself a bigger hole in the process.

ALL that being said, I do also think the decision to keep Kotsay at that specific time was as much due to being in contention in 2005. The elaboration was to clear up what I feel was the other part of the equation, which hadn't been clear prior.

www.????????????.com...the "launch" is coming soon...or grand opening in brick-and-mortar terms...I'll be all over the DLD the day it's ready.

by Cutthemullet on Mar 2, 2007 10:38 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

2005, 2000 and schmive.

I'm talking 2007 - Kotsay out.

And don't tell me nobody will take on his contract - have you seen what Texas gives 30yr old league average guys? Gil Meche makes the equivalent of a small island nation's GDP and we can't move a guy who hits a consistent .275 and patrols center field like a vaccuum?

Remember, someone took Byrnes off our hands... and liked it.

"Kotsay is 31... Kotsay's back is 127." - Jeepers

by Ozzz on Mar 2, 2007 11:39 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

he was also cheaper

and with no chronic injury history

by OaklandSi on Mar 2, 2007 12:43 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

And with a chronic case of the dropsies.

"Kotsay is 31... Kotsay's back is 127." - Jeepers

by Ozzz on Mar 2, 2007 10:24 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

option7 :)

I think we've been taking two narrowly separate paths to the same conclusion: Beane has a hard time admitting when he's wrong, or facing sunk costs.

... our computers then decode what it is the monkey's intending to do ... @('.')@

by monkeyball on Mar 2, 2007 1:50 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

the sunk costs is a problem

throughout sports. management usually has a hard time moving on after they waste a bunch of money on a useless player.

A's v Giants "is kind of like the difference between going to see the Ramones and going to see the Bee Gees. A's fans will go see the Ramones." -BB 07/27/05

by xbhaskarx on Mar 2, 2007 4:09 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

... but not on a useless manager, apparently

Given Beane's penny-pinching tendencies and his obstinacy to pursue league-minimum replacements for sunk-cost on-field failures, I think we can hazard a guess that Beane really couldn't stand Macha.

... our computers then decode what it is the monkey's intending to do ... @('.')@

by monkeyball on Mar 2, 2007 4:18 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs