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Around SBN: Ellenberger vs. Sanchez Heats Up, Hughes Talks Retirement

Ok, I'll do it: Drunk Diary IV

Eventually I'm going to catch up to the Super Bowls...only 37 more entries to go.  If I can make these drunken posts on frigid Feburary nights, than it's surely attainable...by May.  Or perhaps by the middle of March if I dedicate myself to making it a daily routine (neither a bad idea nor out of the realm of possibility...)

American football.  So excting.  So exciting that...it had me asleep by halftime.  Not even the artist fomerly known as...could awaken me from my slumber.  That guy's really really overrated, too.  Unless it's the Bills or has fantasy implicationas, I can't watch the NFL anymore.  It's so generic, so predictable, so antiseptic, if my mind is functioning well enough to use that word properly.  Coaches gameplan 18 hours a day 365 days a year to basically achieve a stalemate.  Even the most exciting athletes in the league (Reggie Bush, Vick, Vince Young, Steve Smith) aren't that exciting to watch because the context in which they perform is so fucking...contrived.  What we're really watching is a bunch of coordinators with laminated playsheets covering their mouths shouting the same shit into Motorola headsets, which has been dissected to death by their opponents in the week prior to he game...I'm sorry, but the NFL has nothing to offer me anymore.  It doesn't excite me.  I've seen it all.  

Back to the real national pastime.  Is it just me, or does the "collective consciousness" of AN gain ground on Billy Beane with each passing interview?  I feel as though this may be the one where we have actually surpassed him in our astuteness and savvy.  Derspite his acknowledged ability to adapt to an ever-changing market, he's still clinging to philosophies that really serve as crutches: it's only my job to get us to the playoffs, I can only exert so much control, the manager can only exert so much control, etc.  He was a visionary at a time, but his time may have passed.  Now, he's stuck in a mindset that may render him average in a couple years' time, maybe more if GM's continue to exhibit the glaring idiocy that they have to this point.  Basically, he's not willing to re-evaulate and further refine/perfect his stances on the minute aspects of the game that he could exert further control over...like in a short series.  He might need to cede some control, because he's obviously not going to make that change willingly.  Has he never seen a fucking WinExp graph?  He certainly can handle the long term, but the short term...he acts as if there's NO way to affect the outcome from a managerial standpoint.  That pisses me off, and strikes me as ignorance.

Poll
Who's the best choice for the Super Bowl Halftime Show
Prince
13 votes
"the greatest rock and roll band of all time"
2 votes
Paul McCartney
3 votes
Janet Jackson without a five second delay
7 votes

25 votes | Poll has closed

Comment 45 comments  |  0 recs  | 

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Ahhhhh
You're from Buffalo.  No wonder you were arguing about Hasek so hard.

by Tyler Bleszinski on Feb 5, 2007 10:32 PM PST reply actions  

could've been from anywhere but East Rutherford
Arguing for Hasek as the greatest ever is hardly a revolutionary idea.
"We don't want haddock and chips, we want cod. In cod we trust." --Ghostigital, the pride of Iceland

by Cutthemullet on Feb 6, 2007 4:22 AM PST up reply actions  

Yeah, Detroit is about the only
other place that would agree with you.  I would argue it would probably go Brodeur then Roy then Sawchuk then Hasek.

by Tyler Bleszinski on Feb 6, 2007 9:22 AM PST up reply actions  

you should take a front page poll
about the best goaltender of all time...make first time visitors think that "athletics" is referring to sports in general
"We don't want haddock and chips, we want cod. In cod we trust." --Ghostigital, the pride of Iceland

by Cutthemullet on Feb 6, 2007 2:07 PM PST up reply actions  

I vote for Tretiak
But mostly just because I own his throwback 1972 CCCP jersey.  And I don't know much about hockey.  Still, though, it seems hard to compare guys from different eras particularly given the changes in both styles and gear.
"If your athame is a spork, you might be a Discordian."

by FreeSeatUpgrade on Feb 6, 2007 4:14 PM PST up reply actions  

WinExp?
I use a Mac, sorry. Lost me there.

Maybe the next Great Billy Theory will be VistaBall.  But you have to upgrade your players to use it.

<insert Bill Gates puns here>

anyways, would've been fun to see Chavvy fielding 3rd in a pouring rain...

"Is it because I often panic when making sandwiches?" - Crow

by LawDaddy on Feb 5, 2007 10:35 PM PST reply actions  

in this case, win is short for win
not Windows.  Win Expectancy graphs show the probability of a team winning a game at any given point given the score.  Based on a massive collection of data; history, in other words...shortcoming is that the graphs don't take any of the current game's conditions into account outside inning and score.  But there's predictive value, and they're cool to look at.
"We don't want haddock and chips, we want cod. In cod we trust." --Ghostigital, the pride of Iceland

by Cutthemullet on Feb 6, 2007 4:34 AM PST up reply actions  

I don't think that Billy reveals
all of what he's thinking - if he did, what advantage would he have over his competition?  And yeah, it's his job to get the team to the playoffs...isn't it?  You can't win the World Series without getting to the playoffs.

by Tyler Bleszinski on Feb 5, 2007 11:12 PM PST reply actions  

assuming 3 full playoff series...
it's 162/181 of his job (don't try to read that out loud).  I obviously (well, maybe not so obviously if you only read this post) subscribe to the idea of luck playing a larger role in a short series...but I never liked his use of "crapshoot" as a proper analogy.  In the past, I've likened the reg season/postseason variation to the difference between poker cash games and poker tournaments...in the former, the bad beats even out in the long run, while in the latter, a few can be crippling.  But no good player plays cash games and tournaments with the same strategy.  

Incidentally, if tournaments are the playoffs, then the adjustments needed in each can kind of be reduced to a simple contradiction.  Tournaments usually call for playing less starting hands to minimize bad beat opportunities.  In other words, you don't take as many chances.  Baseball would be the exact opposite, take less chances in the "cash game" that is the regular season, more chances in the postseason.  It's gambling, but just like with poker strategy, it's logical gambling.  Playing for the big inning is waiting for aces; playing aggressively offensively is opening up and playing 10 9 suited to a raise.

"We don't want haddock and chips, we want cod. In cod we trust." --Ghostigital, the pride of Iceland

by Cutthemullet on Feb 6, 2007 4:50 AM PST up reply actions  

But unlike Poker
or dating, in baseball, it's not only a nice thing to do, but you're absolutely required to dance with who brung you.

Unless you have players with the skills to play good small ball, you can't just say, hey, it's the playoffs, lets start doing it (which is not to mention the fact that the research shows that small ball not only causes you on average to score fewer runs, it also does not increase the likelihood of scoring one run).

If you do have players who have those skills, you are more than likely paying a premium for them (I submit Juan Pierre's contract as exhibit A). Thus, setting yourself up to be able to change strategies will directly and negatively affect your ability to succeed in the regular season.

by devo on Feb 6, 2007 9:31 AM PST up reply actions  

I know that say...
a successful sacrifice bunt with no outs actually decreases the expected run total for that inning.  

When you say that the A's cant adjust to a slightly different style of play for the postseason...well, that would probably make them unique among major league teams, then.  Look how Detroit adjusted against Oakland.  Patience would seem to be a far harder skill for Craig Monroe to suddenly exhibit than Jason Kendall being asked to execute the hit-and-run more often.

"We don't want haddock and chips, we want cod. In cod we trust." --Ghostigital, the pride of Iceland

by Cutthemullet on Feb 6, 2007 9:52 AM PST up reply actions  

I'm sure you're aware according to research,
in some situations, "small ball" is a sound strategy.

I would think Juan Pierre's contract is exhibit A that baseball is awash in money, not that "small ballers" are overvalued. After all, would you label Carlos Lee a "small baller"?

On Sunday, Minaya ticked off a list of candidates to join the rotation, and for once this season, none of them was Jose Lima.

by rfloh on Feb 6, 2007 11:05 AM PST up reply actions  

Yes, I am ...
but those situations are fairly rare -- roughly the rate at which the A's employ such strategies (it's not like we never bunt/steal/H&R/etc.

The principal difference between Pierre and Lee is that Lee seems to offer substantial value in non small-ball aspects of the game, while, aside from his defense, Pierre offers essentially none. Contracts are large because baseball is awash in money. Pierre received one of those large contracts because of his small ball talents.

by devo on Feb 6, 2007 12:08 PM PST up reply actions  

In this particular interview...
I didn't like the "if you get there enough times, eventually you'll win it" comment.  While that may be true, you want to maximize your chances each time.  It also kind of contradicted the message he was sending with mentioning his realization in the mid-90's that the playoffs can't be taken for granted.  

And anything he doesn't reveal now to attempt to maintain an adavnatge pales in comparison to the significance of what he revealed in Moneyball which nearly ruined his advantage.  So even if that's true, then it seems almost pointless to be secretive about smaller issues when you taught the world how to evaluate talent.  

"We don't want haddock and chips, we want cod. In cod we trust." --Ghostigital, the pride of Iceland

by Cutthemullet on Feb 6, 2007 4:58 AM PST up reply actions  

Couldn't be further from the truth.
Not only did Moneyball not lessen BB's advantage, it accentuated it. Moneyball was about, we'll call it version 1.5. By the time the book was published, Billy Beane had moved on.

OBP? Eric Chavez' .350 was #2 on the team.  Everyone else was roughly average or worse.

Boppers? The A's finished 6th in the league in HRs, and closer to last than 4th.

The team BB was trying to assemble wasn't the team that everyone else thought he was going for. You're much better off going against someone who is not merely ignorant, but rather, completely misinformed.

by devo on Feb 6, 2007 9:46 AM PST up reply actions  

whoa
I sense a debate arising just after glancing at the title...I'll be back in a couple hours to make my case for what should seem to be an easily defended point...
"We don't want haddock and chips, we want cod. In cod we trust." --Ghostigital, the pride of Iceland

by Cutthemullet on Feb 6, 2007 9:54 AM PST up reply actions  

re-signing Scott Hatteberg...
yeah, he moved on.
"We don't want haddock and chips, we want cod. In cod we trust." --Ghostigital, the pride of Iceland

by Cutthemullet on Feb 6, 2007 2:08 PM PST up reply actions  

Man...So off on Prince....
If anything, the man is underrated.  Such an amazing musician.  Have to see him live to appreciate how immensely talented he is.  It isnt the catchy hit songs or the weird attire.....It's the pure intensity and passion he has for music that shows through at a live show.  I have been to a lot of concerts and he capivated an entire arena better than anyone I have seen.
Bring back Hammer.

by OaktownPower on Feb 5, 2007 11:34 PM PST reply actions  

Youtube link here
and that was A+++, everything from production, to creativeness, the song selection (he didn't just feed us his songs), the imagery, the band, the symbol as stage and he showcased the music, didn't just play it. Pepsi got there money's worth.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nRLJ7JC8Y_g

"Choosing between Milledge and Gomez is like choosing between Mozart and Beethoven" --NY Mets Message Boards

by apilgrim on Feb 6, 2007 12:23 AM PST up reply actions  

The '80s
was a fairly dire musical decade, but Prince made it somewhat worthwhile...

by mikeA on Feb 6, 2007 12:28 AM PST up reply actions  

Ha ha! Oh, were you serious?
Just wondering what age you might be to deem yourself worthy to pass judgement on an entire decades worth of music.
"...sometimes I can't tell the difference between baseball and magic."- salb918 "Ellie plowed into him like an evil, pink unicorn."-ArakSOT

by McFood on Feb 6, 2007 8:44 AM PST up reply actions  

I am
24 I'll have you know.

by mikeA on Feb 6, 2007 10:36 AM PST up reply actions  

Prince's cover of that is awesome, though...
"I can't believe you guys like that (Swisher) doesn't wear underwear..." ~ Mark Ellis

by Poppy on Feb 6, 2007 11:01 AM PST up reply actions  

losing his religion
that's Prince in the corner...that's Prince in the spot..light...losing his religion...REM, great song.  Anyway, why did he start recording and performing again?  No longer calls himself a Jehovah's Witness or whatever he converted to when he took his hiatus?

Man, I wanted to sleep longer than this.  I don't have much reason to get up on Tuesdays and Thursdays, and I have absolutely zero reason to get up on a Tuesday with yet another -20 degree wind chill or so.  I guess I'll actually read the link dump whose title I ripped off...

"We don't want haddock and chips, we want cod. In cod we trust." --Ghostigital, the pride of Iceland

by Cutthemullet on Feb 6, 2007 3:58 AM PST up reply actions  

VORG
his talent on the guitar has been over looked forever.  it was nice to see him single handedly show he is one of the all time greats.
Beane's World!! Excellent!!! Rock On, Beane! Rock On, Geren!

by Satchmo22 on Feb 6, 2007 4:02 AM PST up reply actions  

Bravo, Bravo....
Another stellar drunken entry.

I'm your biggest fan!!!

"Schleep is for babies. Gamers play all night." Nintendo Fanactic

by capper3 on Feb 6, 2007 12:32 AM PST reply actions  

yes, you are
The drunk diaries seem to have something of a cult following, but you stand out as the most appreciative.  Drunk Diary V might have to be dedicated to capper III.
"We don't want haddock and chips, we want cod. In cod we trust." --Ghostigital, the pride of Iceland

by Cutthemullet on Feb 6, 2007 4:01 AM PST up reply actions  

or maybe
this time around you're just still buzzed from winning Super Bowl bets (I remember a post where you expressed disbelief the Colts were only favored by 7, I'm guessing you acted on that?)

One of the bars I went to last night apparently had a Super Bowl numbers pool (you know, the traditional office pool with the squares, all luck) where each square cost $900 (that's where it's not so traditional).  Each SCORE CHANGE was worth $1,200, and some guy at the bar estimated the grand prize to be around $60k.  He spent the whole night lamenting about the Bears not scoring a TD on their final drive, because that would've given him the $60k instead of the paltry $2,400 he won from...2 score changes I guess.

I asked the bar if I they were signing people up for next year's game yet, heh.  That would keep me awake during...early prediction...Dallas-Jacksonville (remember that one; the Jags will benefit from a full season of Jack Del Rio wearing suits...as long as Maurice Jones-Drew doesn't hang out with Ricky Manning this offseason).  

"We don't want haddock and chips, we want cod. In cod we trust." --Ghostigital, the pride of Iceland

by Cutthemullet on Feb 6, 2007 4:12 AM PST up reply actions  

Enabler!
"I can't believe you guys like that (Swisher) doesn't wear underwear..." ~ Mark Ellis

by Poppy on Feb 6, 2007 6:48 AM PST up reply actions  

Enabler hater!
Yes, Billy, "it would be nice to go to Europe for a month and know that your team is in its mid-20s and locked in for the next five or six years."

by LAXile on Feb 6, 2007 3:04 PM PST up reply actions  

once again
the best football was played during the NFC/AFC championship games, not during the SuperBowl

by OaklandSi on Feb 6, 2007 3:43 AM PST reply actions  

Pats-Colts
That was Michigan-Ohio State.  Except here Ohio State didn't get blown out by Florida.
"We don't want haddock and chips, we want cod. In cod we trust." --Ghostigital, the pride of Iceland

by Cutthemullet on Feb 6, 2007 5:01 AM PST up reply actions  

Prince backlash
it's inspiring a poll...I personally would rather see the 80-year-old Rolling Stones every year (except for Keith Richards, he's 90).

But like I said, I was asleep by halftime anyway.

"We don't want haddock and chips, we want cod. In cod we trust." --Ghostigital, the pride of Iceland

by Cutthemullet on Feb 6, 2007 4:17 AM PST reply actions  

fucking snow
I'm not even going to venture out and get breakfast in these white-out conditions.  Like Chris Cornell and Eddie Vedder in Hunger Strike, I'm going hungry this morning.  And like that dude in the best pre-caveman Geico ad ever, featuring clips from the fake reality show Tiny House, "I just want to make an omelette!"  I'll be slamming my cathedral ceilings (ok, they're 7 feet) in frustration anytime now.
"We don't want haddock and chips, we want cod. In cod we trust." --Ghostigital, the pride of Iceland

by Cutthemullet on Feb 6, 2007 5:07 AM PST reply actions  

heh
do Californians ever hear the term "white out" as a description of vision-denying snow?  I feel like an Inuit, with 20 different words for snow at my disposal.  Not to mention the alcoholism...joking, joking.  Don't want to offend any AN readers from Yellowknife.
"We don't want haddock and chips, we want cod. In cod we trust." --Ghostigital, the pride of Iceland

by Cutthemullet on Feb 6, 2007 5:14 AM PST up reply actions  

Hmm
vision-denying...or vision-defying?  Or should I have been even bolder and went with vision-decrying?  monkeyball better weigh in on this one
"We don't want haddock and chips, we want cod. In cod we trust." --Ghostigital, the pride of Iceland

by Cutthemullet on Feb 6, 2007 5:20 AM PST up reply actions  

Sigh, you make me miss Buffalo
and all that lake effect snow.
On Sunday, Minaya ticked off a list of candidates to join the rotation, and for once this season, none of them was Jose Lima.

by rfloh on Feb 6, 2007 7:42 AM PST up reply actions  

heh
we Buffalonians were all missing it this winter until a couple weeks ago...it's pretty intense lake effect today; apparently north of the city it's a nice, sunny day.  Alas, I am just southeast of the city.  I'm probably five miles removed from being able to do whatever I please.  But I'd probably be on AN anyway...eating a breakfast sandwich, though.
"We don't want haddock and chips, we want cod. In cod we trust." --Ghostigital, the pride of Iceland

by Cutthemullet on Feb 6, 2007 7:47 AM PST up reply actions  

Eh, I thought it was pretty bad this winter
at least according to some friends.
On Sunday, Minaya ticked off a list of candidates to join the rotation, and for once this season, none of them was Jose Lima.

by rfloh on Feb 6, 2007 8:19 AM PST up reply actions  

nope
nothing between October and now.
"We don't want haddock and chips, we want cod. In cod we trust." --Ghostigital, the pride of Iceland

by Cutthemullet on Feb 6, 2007 9:55 AM PST up reply actions  

Prince
I TIVO'd through it.
Oh yeah, uh...I was at the flower shop too. Yep. Getting drunk at the ol' flower shop. - Homer Simpson

by DCinWC on Feb 6, 2007 12:42 PM PST reply actions  

Great diary mullet, as usual
however, I question your drunkeness.  I am not sensing it in the diary itself, however I do see it in your subsequent comments.

And gotta jump on the Prince defense bandwagon.  I grew upin the 80's listening to the legendary KROQ in SoCal and the is where my musical tastes lay primarily, however I like all types and have always appreciated Prince.  He is a genius and I realize that term is overused but I have seen him in large venues and snmall clubs.  He is an amazing musician and talented songwriter who impacted many across the music spectrum.

And best halftime show in years.  I especially like the Foo Fighters tribute...recalling their rendention of Darling Nikki a few years back.  Pretty cool.

by easyraider on Feb 6, 2007 1:00 PM PST reply actions  

heh
So I seemed sober when I was drunk but drunk when I was sober?  I like it.  You are kind of right though, if I was really wasted, I would've driven into a ditch on the way home given the icy roads.  I had maybe 8 drinks spread out over 4 hours (have to take my low tolerance into account too), and smoked maybe a cigarette per beer, which offsets the effects of alcohol somewhat.  I don't care about the warnings of the Surgeon General, I need to quit smoking so I can be more intoxicated when I write my drunk diairies.
"We don't want haddock and chips, we want cod. In cod we trust." --Ghostigital, the pride of Iceland

by Cutthemullet on Feb 6, 2007 1:33 PM PST up reply actions  

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