What if we could...?

by vignette17 on Feb 22, 2007 4:03 PM PST

Disclaimer: All of this is pure, idle speculation with impossibly little chance of ever happening. So if you're not a fan of made-up trades don't read it.

Zonis' diary the other day got me thinking: is there a way to limit (but not eliminate) our competitions in spring training and get someone who could really help us?

Obviously, our biggest hole is offense and our biggest strength our bullpen. I wish we could have gotten in on the Adam LaRoche deal, but that is old news. So the idea I came up was:

Adam Dunn and David Ross for
Jason Kendall, DJ, Kielty, TBuck and Street/Duke/Calero

At first I thought the deal favored us but the more I thought of it the more it made sense. First the monetary issue: according to Cot's, Dunn makes $10.5 mil in '07; Ross $1.6 mil; Kendall $8 mil (13 and $5mil comes from the Pirates); Kielty $2.1 mil; Duke and Calero a little more than 1 mil. The rest all make minimum. In other words, if we give the $5 mil for Kendall from PIT to CIN, then the trade is basically an even exchange of salaries.

Talent-wise we get two low average, high power, high OPS guys. However, if Beane feels he has found a market inefficiency in low K guys, he would have to break that trend. And that's an understatement. We gain two of the highest strikeout kings this side of Ryan Howard. Oh wait one sec, we get one this side of RH and one on the other side (Dunn had 194[!] to Howard's 181). Plus we limit our competition with the only real competition for one bullpen spot.

The Reds biggest need is a closer. Street, Duke, or Calero all could be the Reds' closer. The Reds also get a proven NL .300 hitter at catcher, their future replacement for Hatty, and also a LF for today and one for tomorrow. They trade one/two years of Dunn (he has a 13 mil option) and two+ of Ross for a good prospect and three years of a premium closer.

Any thoughts?

Poll

This trade ...

favors the Reds.

29 votes

favors us.

2 votes

is even.

2 votes

diary and diaries like this are stupid.

17 votes

50 votes | Poll has closed

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Comments

A few things

First is that Kendall has no trade value. He has a negative trade value. AND he has a No Trade Clause, so whe wouldn't accept a trade to Cincinati.

They also probably would not want Kielty.

Ross has, if I calculated this right, 2 years left till Free Agency, and Dunn has 1 year left, as his option dissapears if he is traded.

And doesn't Cincinatti have like 3 catchers?

So I think it would end up like this. It would bascially end up being Travis Buck and Huston Street for Adam Dunn. I'm not sure if that is a good trade or not anymore.

by Zonis on Feb 22, 2007 5:05 PM PST reply actions

I forgot the NTC

But I think Huston, Buck for Dunn is way lopsided toward the Reds' advantage. I would love David Ross and if we could get rid of an albatross contract especially if said albatross waived his NTC at the same time, I think the scale is tilted more toward even.

"Loyal? I'm the most loyal player money can buy." - Don Sutton

by vignette17 on Feb 22, 2007 5:57 PM PST up reply actions

Who would

close games for us if we gave up Street?

President of the Brent Gates Fan Club

by SoCal As Fan on Feb 22, 2007 5:17 PM PST reply actions

If we gave up Huston

I think either Duke or Calero could close with few hitches. Even Gaudin could if he cut back the walks.

"Loyal? I'm the most loyal player money can buy." - Don Sutton

by vignette17 on Feb 22, 2007 6:00 PM PST up reply actions

Hmmm...

Well, for one thing I think the Reds already feel they've got a replacement for Hatteberg in Votto. Granted he's not as accomplished as Johnson at this point, but he's as talented and is coming off a breakout year as opposed to a bust year.

I, for one, would rather trade Street than Duchscherer, provided we could get something a little more long-term worked out with Duke.

If you're looking at Street and Buck for Dunn... well it's hard to say. Dunn is the best player in that deal, and it's always good to end up with the single best player. However, he is nearing FA as mentioned above, and Buck could do some nice work at the league minimum come '08/'09.

All in all I think this is not only unlikely, but probably not something that would benefit us significantly either.

by vincehorsemansmullett on Feb 22, 2007 6:15 PM PST reply actions

Stop now, Billy would never do it

Billy would never trade for a player who's as free of a swinger as Dunn, sure some of the balls he has connected with are still airborn to this day, but Billy doesn't like to give up at bats with wild swings.

Year    AB    SO
2001    244    74
2002    535    170
2003    381    126
2004    568    195
2005    543    168
2006    561    194

by mespinoza99 on Feb 23, 2007 7:42 AM PST up reply actions

walks

dunn also walks 100 times a year. so the strike outs are pretty weird because he must have a good eye, but he must swing like the "mighty casey" all the time.

"I'd like to reference a brilliant post from Left Coast Lumber today" - notsellingjeans

by methodrampage on Feb 23, 2007 7:46 AM PST up reply actions