Hot Stove Open Thread & Big Trade
by baseballgirl on Dec 5, 2007 12:18 AM PST
in News
87 comments
The AN diary discussion started here:
http://www.athleticsnation.com/story...
We open a new thread for a new day of winter meetings, but can anything really top this one?
From MLB.com:
Though neither the Tigers nor Marlins officials were commenting on the record about their agreement on an eight-player mega-trade, expected to be announced Wednesday pending review of medical records, the aftershocks were already shaking the rest of the league and officials at the Gaylord Opryland Resort and Convention Center. By acquiring Miguel Cabrera and Dontrelle Willis from the Marlins for Cameron Maybin, Andrew Miller, Mike Rabelo and Minor Leaguers Dallas Trahern, Eulogio De La Cruz and Burke Badenhop, the Tigers will give up what might be an unprecedented amount of future talent in recent memory for an infusion of present power that instantly makes Detroit a team for opponents to fear in 2008.
If all goes through as planned, pending the physicals, this will be a monster trade, and should easily vault Detroit into contention for the top AL spot next year.
And there is little doubt that everyone in baseball knows the worth of these two players, but since there’s a little bit of FJM in me, I found this to be particularly amusing:
Dontrelle Willis and Miguel Cabrera have won World Series titles [in 2003], which is the main goal for this organization. They have experience and great leadership abilities. Plus they have proven they can perform at a high level on a big stage.
I tell you what; that’s the first thing I look for when choosing a player. Have they been on a team that has won a World Series? Check! Experience and leadership? Double check! Can they perform at a high level on a big stage? It’s like Christmas! Whatever happened to just saying, "Hey, we got Cabrera and Willis and you don't." I could be wrong, but I'm pretty sure the 'why we picked up those particular players' is implied.
Seriously, though. Should having a World Series’ ring even be listed in the criteria? There are a ton of players I would take that have never played in a series, and a ton I would never take that have. That is extremely non-useful information to me.
But let's be honest; I’m green with envy. Miguel Cabrera is the hottest pickup since A-rod, and practically a decade younger, and if he has to come to the AL, I’m sure glad he’s not in the West.
In other hot stove gossip, Santana is still on the market; the A’s are still waiting to make a move that will shock and pleasantly surprise us (what? I can’t dream?), and there are still whispers of trade rumors from every corner of MLB.
But I don’t think they are topping today’s trade.
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if we're gonna do a long term contract
I'd rather sign Blanton to a long term contract than Street. He's never injured, he's gotten better every year, I bet he ends up pitching in the Major Leagues for 10 more years. Meanwhile, it seems like every year Street gets hurt at least once. Why sign the person that keeps getting injured to a long term contract?
Plus, Blanton with a decent long term contract becomes more valuable if we trade him, everyone that talks about Haren mentions how attractive he is because of his deal.
Or better yet...
let's forget this whole foolishness in trading Haren/Blanton/Street this offseason (to be revisited at a later date...) and go after that missing piece(s). LAA missed out on Cabrera and Santana is outright unlikely. Time for BB to put on his thinking cap and take the West again in 2008.
by AsWin on Dec 5, 2007 12:21 AM PST up reply actions
Beane knows that there is no better time to deal
Harren and Blanton. They are a well known commodity that will garner a decent return in prospects. I believe the odds are pretty good that Beane pulls the trigger and moves at least one these guys, and might trade both if his high return value is realized. Arizona has the prospects that Beane wants, and they want a front-line pitcher. Harren comes very cheap, which makes him even more appealing to AZ.
by Mikkoo on Dec 5, 2007 1:20 AM PST up reply actions
Very true.
This is the time to deal Haren, if you're going to, and it doesn't mean that Beane is giving up on 2008.
yeah, but i don't think they're serious
about the AZ talks. they seem to be just throwing numbers and names out there. and no Upton? no Young?
how can we deal Haren and not get a legit CF prospect or SS and a near ready pitcher?
a Haren trade doesn't automatically put the A's out of '08, but one involving 6 prospects for Haren does. maybe Beane is stretching out the back end because it seems like no one is willing to give up 2 grade A prospects for Haren.
look at the way Slusser's Chron story is phrased
Here she says that "the list of players the A's requested from Arizona was not as unfeasible as the packages they've suggested elsewhere."
To me, that says that Beane wasn't actually serious about dealing withe the Tigers -- he basically demanded that they ante up and fold before the game began. With the D-backs, he's starting out with modest requests (floating the Jackson rumors, then denying he's interested in him; not immediately asking for Young/Upton), and indicating a willingness to negotiate.
that's a good assessment, i think
certainly something has to give though. either there's a Blanton switch out near the end (though AZ says they're not interested) or Street, Haren, and Blanton get traded and we start from scratch.
This is bulls--t
I don't understand why Beane is even having discussions with Arizona. It's clear that they're acting in bad faith. I'm sorry, but none of their supposedly "untouchable" players is even close to as good as Haren is now. They are not David friggin' Wright. Delmon Young-- a better prospect than any of those except for Upton-- was traded for Matt Garza, who is worse than Haren.
I mean, at some point the A's have to actually get back some high-end talent for this to be worth anything. The last thing Oakland needs is 50 different variations on Rich Robnett and Brad Knox.
+1
I completely agree PaulThomas. In no way, should we take AZ's garbage for a cheap ace staff leader. Danny's value should be similar to Johan's and I don't see how what they are willing to give up is anywhere near worthy enough for either.
If Danny gets traded (and I've gone on record saying that is a bad idea) we need a SP that can immediately replace Danny and ideally do as well (a Hughes type), and some position player help. All should be able to be placed on the 40 or close to it. None of what AZ is offering is anywhere close to that.
And another point, AZ is not desperate for a front line starter. They already have Webb and are much like BOS in that another arm is a luxury. That is why they aren't willing to part with anything decent. They are trying to replace Livan at the basic level. Hence the interest in Lowry as well.
by AsWin on Dec 5, 2007 10:44 AM PST up reply actions
PaulThomas
Doesn't have bad days. He just stays at a Holiday Inn Express every night.
by BlameChannel53 on Dec 5, 2007 10:58 AM PST up reply actions
Disagree...
Trading Danny certainly means (pending a miracle) that the As are punting 2008. We have no one to replace him internally and the rumored deal with AZ is peanuts. They are not including Upton, Jackson, Drew, Young among others. It's nowhere near what Danny is worth and certainly is not a blow em out of the water type of deal.
Also, Danny's stock is stable. There is no need to rush a deal and this is not his peak. Unless you think he is going to get hit by a bus sometime in the near future.
If the As can not get a worthy return for Danny (or any other player for that matter) than you keep him. You don't just give someone up of Danny's calibur to make a move for moves sake.
by AsWin on Dec 5, 2007 9:53 AM PST up reply actions
I kinda disagree
Trading Danny to Arizona for a boatload of prospects not on their untouchable list certainly punts on '08, but there may be doable deals across the board that leave us in contention for '08. They're not doable right now (or I think a trade is made), but things might change before the year is out.
I'm definitely for keeping Haren if the A's don't find a suitable deal. He's a great pitcher who is valuable even if he doesn't get any better over the length of his contract.
AZ might have prized prospects...
unforutnately, they are bringing in the B levelers and aren't willing to part with the big guns needed to net Danny.
by AsWin on Dec 5, 2007 9:55 AM PST up reply actions
The missing pieces are already on the roster
Harden, Chavez, Crosby. Even if we assume that Kotsay is toast, what those other 3 guys are going to do will play a large part in whether or not the A's are contenders in 2008.
Which is the real Gaudin?
Can Duke come back from hip surgery?
Can Buck stay healthy all year?
Not even adding A-Rod could help the A's win if all those players come up snake-eyes.
Weird timing
Is this diary supposed to be for Wednesday's action?
By happy coincidence, on Monday and Tuesday, for the first time since Labor Day, I had two consecutive days where I had absolutely nothing to do but sit on my lazy butt and surf the web all day long. How cool is that?
Wednesday, alas, I'll be out all afternoon, so I'll miss the fun. :-(
It seems...
...to me that people are forgetting that Dontrelle Willis basically sucks now.
On the radio I heard analysts claiming that Verlander, Bonderman, Willis is the best 1,2,3 in the game..
I think it's kind of like the Florida trade with Boston: Beckett as the main gem, with Lowell (and his contract) "thrown in".
by Travis Buck Nuckin on Dec 5, 2007 2:22 AM PST reply actions
that turned out to be a nice throwin, didn't it?
unless there's some big injury cropping up, I'll bet Willis gets newly inspired by the move.
Lol
I'd take Haren, Harden and Blanton if they were actually all healthy at once. Heck, I might take Haren, Blanton and Gaudin. Or Cain, Lincecum, Zito... or like half of the other top ends of rotations out there.
This is the radio, after all.
i think Florida
tinkered with him too much. his stuff is still there though, so it's a matter of cutting down on the walks and taking an approach that's closer to 2005. if he does that, he could post slightly above average numbers next season. something like a 4.25 ERA.
of course, he could also implode because of the league switch.
The league switch is interesting...
I really can't predict how he'll do.
'08 Tigers
It won't make any difference in the regular season whether Willis has an ERA of 3.50 or 5.50. Detroit looks like they'll score 7 runs/gm anyway. Casey and his 9 HR's replaced by Guillen, Inge and his .230 BA replaced by Cabrera...they're scary.
Fire Joe Morgan (yeah righ, I wish)
Morgan's analysis never fails to grab you, does it? Your experience/leadership/won a WS example is indicative of how in-depth Morgan never is.
I think that possibly Joe Morgan suffers from having no need or desire to describe anything baseball wise to anyone but the extremely casual fan. Hell, he might not even have the means to - but he could be fooling me.
Hey, maybe the joke's on me. If Morgan actually conveyed a thought that interested anyone other than the fan that only watches one or two baseball games every year, I suppose he wouldn't draw the numbers that he obviously must in order to keep his job.
The extremely casual fans that make up the largest part of the t.v./radio target audience, added with those fans that know the game very well and follow it closely, while only keeping his name in the mix through making fun of him (that FJM site's gotten pretty popular) - must turn out to be a pretty large number.
Oh, and did you happen to catch him on the radio this past postseason? I bet Jon Miller goes home at night shaking his head in disbelief.
by NewPosterMojo on Dec 5, 2007 4:09 AM PST reply actions
Rephrase
"No need or desire"-- I'd term it as "no capability, at least given the amount of actual baseball he watches."
Amen.
Yeah...
by NewPosterMojo on Dec 5, 2007 3:08 PM PST up reply actions
For what it's worth
I enjoy listening to Joe Morgan when he's the announcer for any national-broadcast game I happen to watch. I agree that much of what he says makes no sense, and the stuff he writes is worse, but that doesn't stop me from liking him as an announcer.
You can judge for yourself whether that makes me an "extremely casual fan".
How cool is it to be a Tiger fan today...........
Your team is good and getting better trading for young, proven talent.A tough lineup just got tougher.
A's fans get to wonder about which of our few young, proven talents will be traded away....on the other hand thank god the Feds charged Barry Bonds or he would be here.
Not entirely an exciting and encouraging off season if you are preparing to write your season ticket check.
interesting
i think my feelings are pretty close to the polar opposite of yours.
detroit's deal is good, maybe, for the next 2 seasons. i wouldn't want the A's, even if their farm system was as stacked, to make that move. there are better ways of winning and applying pressure to other teams than trading your 2 best prospects (plus 4 others) for 2 seasons of one great player (maybe more) and what amounts to a reclaimation project.
i am fine with the Bonds indictment, so long as it doesn't stop the A's from signing him. he'll be the best deal in baseball. better than Frank Thomas.
Yes, but I would not mind Cabrera!
well
they might have traded him for Swisher/Barton/Blanton, something like that.
i don't like him that much.
I wanted to trade him for Crosby.
What?
That sounds reasonable to me.
Any objections?
Couldn't we have re-signed Kendall?
And then traded Crosby, Kotsay, and Kendall for him?
One thing that people
seem to forget is that Cabrera is about the same age as many prospects. This isn't a player approaching his decline phase.
Yes, they only get 2 seasons of him. Nothing says they can't re-sign him or sign him to a long term deal.
Furthermore, their team as currently constructed, even without the Cabrera trade, is built to win now. With Sheffield, Maggs, Pudge, Guillen, the trade for Renteria, Kenny Rogers, Inge, their window is now.
You say that there are better ways of winning. How?
Players like Cabrera do not come along often. Just wishcast that a dumbass GM is going to give up a player like him for minimal cost?
Also, Maybin is too the Tigers what Adam Jones is to the Mariners, or what Milledge was to the Mets. He is positionally blocked. He has more value to another team than he has to the Tigers. To the Tigers credit, they got back a superstar, instead of crap, for him.
well
i would have liked the deal a lot more had it been just Cabrera. they should have saved on the back end of the deal, even if they're trying to win now.
i agree. Cabrera's fantastic and young, and you don't pass up the chance to acquire a player like that– there's a handful in the league at most.
like i said, i think it's a good deal in the short run. for me, this deal is only great if i can sign him to an extension.
Adam Jones is "positionally blocked"
only to the extent that the Mariners front office is institutionally retarded.
Who exactly was blocking him? Raul Ibañez? Carl Everett? Willie Bloomquist? Jeremy Reed?
Ichiro was originally a RF. They moved him to CF because they didn't have anyone else to play there. If they started Adam Jones they could have put Ichiro back in RF, or they could put Jones in RF.
For the Mariners, any hot prospect is blocked, simply by the fact that the Mariners refuse to ever promote a rookie ahead of a veteran.
Ibañez isn't bad yet, but he's in decline. It would have made sense this year to phase him out to make room for Jones. Better yet, they could have moved Ibañez to 1B or DH, and gotten rid of Sexson or Vidro. Put Sexson on the bench for heaven's sake. There's a reason that nobody wants him, and it's not just his contract.
And now that Guillen is gone, Jones is even less blocked. As the roster stands right now, the Mariners best outfield includes both Jones and Balentien.
He is positionally blocked
because his best position is CF. Ichiro is in CF. He has less value in RF than in CF.
did you stay at the same Holiday Inn Express ...
... as PaulThomas?
Also, Vidro was not the problem
last season.
Vidro is always the problem
RUMOR ALERT
Reported on ESPN 1050 radio a proposed 3 way deal between Mets, A's and Twins. The meat of the deal looks like this:
- Johan Santana and Bobby Crosby to the Mets
- Dan Haren to the Twins
- Jose Reyes to the A's
Other players/prospects are rumored to be in the deal.
That will please grover
by BlameChannel53 on Dec 5, 2007 10:17 AM PST up reply actions
Hahahahaha
No way.
Just more silliness by drunken sportscasters
this goes on every winter, and goes nowhere.
by china bob on Dec 5, 2007 10:22 AM PST up reply actions
You'd have a better chance
at trading Crosby for one of Maine's dresses...
by AsWin on Dec 5, 2007 10:25 AM PST up reply actions
A guy named Phil.
Strangely, he knows absolutely nothing about baseball.
There better be other prospects
As it is, this is ludicrously favorable to the Twins.
It's obviously rubbish, but if you're picking up
Reyes then you're looking to win now. Surely those other prospects are ML ready pitchers.
I don't see how this works...
if Street and Nathan aren't involved as well. I don't see the Twins parting with any more of their young starters and NYM have OFers which the Twins don't need.
by AsWin on Dec 5, 2007 10:52 AM PST up reply actions
It's ludicrously favourable
to the Twins, yes, but the A's are doing well in that trade.
Haren has a great contract. So does Reyes. Reyes, in 2007, was more valuable than Haren. Haren is of course a great pitcher, so he has additional value. But Reyes is a SS, which aren't easy to come by either.
It's the Mets who end up looking like dumbasses in that trade.
Hey, I just wanted you to know
that you can't just say the word Shenanigans and expect anything to happen.
lol, was going to post the same thing...
I guess people feel if you put in flowery adjectives like "reliable" and "trusworthy" source then it makes rumors more valid.
by Miggy on Dec 5, 2007 2:29 PM PST up reply actions
An Element of Truth . . .
is that it may be a three way trade. Beane has been very successful in putting together multi-team trades.
by jarforcefatherofforce on Dec 5, 2007 4:01 PM PST up reply actions
Milton ready to get reinjured in April?
From espn.com:
• After outfielder Kosuke Fukudome signs, one potential backup plan for teams that lose out is free agent Milton Bradley. Bradley was last seen tearing his ACL in that bizarre tangle with his manager (Bud Black) in September. Teams that have kicked the tires on him report they've been told that doctors expect him to be able to play again sometime in April, if not Opening Day. His most recent team, the Padres, remains interested. Outside of Barry Bonds, Bradley is the only free agent who had a .500 slugging percentage and .400 on-base percentage last season.
Bradley to get injured
During the physical to green-light his new deal.
I think he was already re-injured ...
... by the teams kicking his tires.
Wait: tires are black! Teams kicked them! Teams are racist!!!
If the Padres "remained interested,"
why on God's green earth would they not have offered him arbitration? He was a Type A free agent! If you actually want the guy on your team, it's win-win.
So either the Padres think they can sign him for way under what he made last year, or they're idiots, or they're not actually still interested.
A .500 slugging pct and a .400 OBP
sounds great until you look closer and say, "Oh, he was 1/4 with a double and a walk before his manager accidentally attacked him."
if we trade for Zito..
how much of his contract would the Giants eat? do the A's have anyone old enough for Sabean to want?
mmm... contract...
Why would we want Zito?
He's a replacement level LHP signed to a huge contract for a long time. He has negative value.
Willis and Pudge to the Mets
Rotoworld is saying that the Tigers are trying to send Willis and possibly Pudge to the Mets. This could get interesting.
by methodrampage on Dec 5, 2007 3:55 PM PST up reply actions
That's a flatly false statement
Zito's ERA+ last season was 98.
2% below average is not "replacement level." Whether he's worth his contract or not is an entirely different question, but there's no question that Zito is far better than replacement level. He had a bad half-season-- just like he did in '04. The sky is not falling. He's still an above-average major league pitcher.
or you could look at component ERA
xFIP the last 4 years:
5.04
4.61
5.46
5.04
That's replacement level, sorry. Barry Zito's average season is what Dallas Braden gave us last year (xFIP 5.02), and worse than a Lenny DiNardo (xFIP 4.80). If being in the same class as those guys doesn't define replacement level, I don't know how else to describe it.
...or you could look at whether a guy prevents
runs from scoring...
Zito has always had bad peripherals. His career BABIP for right-handed hitters is something like .270. This is not a fluke, a coincidence, or Zito getting lucky. He has a proven ability to get guys, especially right-handers, out on balls in play at an unusually high rate. FIP doesn't tell you everything. If it did, Jamie Moyer and Tom Glavine would have been out of baseball 5 years ago.
Quote from our GM...emphasis mine.
From mlb.com:
"Several key players were slowed or shut down by injuries during the 2007 season, and IF the MAJORITY of them stay healthy in 2008, the A's, Beane has said, MIGHT have enough talent to COMPETE for the American League West crown."
Me paraphrasing:
"IF the MAJORITY stay healthy, we MIGHT have enough talent to COMPETE for the AL West crown."
Not what you want to hear from your GM.
Isn't the logical equivalent "If we get a few key injuries then we probably fall out of the division race"?
(pause a moment to recall 2007 season and think of our genius training staff)
Doesn't really make you want to run out and buy season tickets, does it?
Kind of tough to compete with the Angels' revenue. What to do? Personally, I will probably follow 2008 on the TV or radio (as opposed to in person) and pretty much expect the Angels to repeat. And this is coming from an A's fan!
by eriklovestheathletics on Dec 5, 2007 11:41 PM PST reply actions
I like the paraphrasing
it sounded awfully like the original. At least you referenced the original so it wasn't plagerism
by JJ on Dec 6, 2007 4:12 AM PST up reply actions
Rule 5 Draft
Rule 5 draft is today, by the way. Good summary of the rules below:
by em3 on Dec 6, 2007 8:49 AM PST reply actions
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