Trading With The Steinbrenners
Yesterday I made a "trade proposal"-type post in another member's diary that I at first intended to be sarcastic, but the more I think about it, the more it could make sense for both teams. The proposed trade would have the following players going from OAK to NYY:
SP Dan Haren, SP Joe Blanton, CF Mark Kotsay, SS Bobby Crosby
The following players would be acquired by our beloved Oakland A's:
SP Phil Hughes, SP Ian Kennedy, CF Melky Cabrera, 2B Robinson Cano
Add-ons to this deal could include Mark Ellis to NYY to fill the void created by Cano's departure, Street to NYY, Chamberlain to OAK, NYY AAA ss prospect to OAK, etc.etc.
This deal would make sense for NYY because instead of three rookie "maybes" competing for spots in the rotation, they would acquire two proven, durable, quality "yes's". A team with a $200m payroll cannot possibly feel good about maybes, and in NY thre's no margin for error, no "we'll shoot for next year"...
This deal would make sense for OAK because BB would be exchanging two todays for three tomorrows. If you think we can compete "AS IS" with DET, BOS, LAA, etc., you should probably stop reading now. This deal only makes sense as the cornerstone piece in a rebuilding phase.
BB has figured out that in the current market climate in MLB, a marginal #4 arm commands up to $10m/yr. That is really a frightening figure, one that Wolff will be loath to pony up. So we can forget pursuing pitching on the FA market for an indefinite number of years. As our better pitchers mature, improve, and come up for contract, they will fly the coop to the rich teams. Nothing new there--it's always been that way, ever since I was a kid and George bought Catfish like he was a side of beef in a butcher shop. It saddened me then, and it saddens me now, but it is part of being an A's fan and must be accepted. What needs to happen, better sooner than later, is that we (meaning BB) need to realize that even if all our wounded make miraculous comebacks, the only thing we would be in contention for is to be the 6th best team in a league that awards 4 playoff spots. Last year, we finished 18 games behind a team that has gotten a lot better since then in order to better compete not with us, but with the team that crushed them (BOS). Where do we factor in? Probably about 7-12 games back--IF we bring everyone back. Do we get any special prize for "staying in the hunt until mid-August?"
NO! We need to realize that for the next few years, we will not be THE ONE--we will be one of the other 29, so what difference does it make if we are #9 or #15? It makes no difference at all. Make huge deals THIS YEAR while we can cash our chips out at max value. Can you imagine how receptive NYY would be to the kind of trade detailed above if they were, say, 7 or 8 games out in mid-July and one or more of their talented young pitchers were struggling? The Yankees NEVER think about next year, because they don't need to. When next year comes along, they plug holes by raiding the poorer teams (like ours) of players that have gotten too good (expensive). In July, though, with the season hanging by a thread, they do crazy things...like giving $22m to a 44 year old pitcher to make 15 starts and post an ERA of 5. They would blink and ship us their future in exchange for our present. That helps them in '08 (which, in my opinion, will be a lost year for us anyway), and would theoretically help us big time going forward by giving us 3 potentially solid starters with years of cost control in hand.
What do you think? It does sound sort of crazy at first, but the longer I look at it, the more sense it seems to make...
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Facetious ...
you meant it to be facetious ... not sarcastic ...
sorry, the over/mis use of the term sarcastic is a pet peave of mine ... irony too ... most things that people call ironic are not actually ironic ...
How facetious
Haren and Blanton are worth more to other teams
since a lot of their value is in their low cost. The Yankees want absolute performance, not value. Haren and Blanton would be worth more to the Diamondbacks or other up-and-coming teams with limited budgets looking for that pitcher to put them over the top.
Your idea is for the A's to trade a #1 starter, a #2 starter, and two bad contracts which won't matter in two years for a potential #1, a potential #4, a fourth outfielder, and a very good 2nd baseman about to make a ton of money in arbitration. It seems the A's get worse in the short and long run on this deal.
Kennedy has the potential to be as good ...
as Blanton ... an innings eater who will put up a somewhat above average ERA. I'd call that more of a three ... but whatever Blanton is, that's what Kennedy has the potential to be.
Don't know how 2007 affected it
but Sickels called him an "inning-eater type in the back of the rotation"
Either way, I generally apply a discount factor to any prospect playing for a NY team since they tend to be overhyped. If he repeated Blanton's performance, I'd be happy.
It seems odd though to trade 6 years of #1/#2 club control (3 for Haren/3 for Blanton) just for maximum potential of 12 years of 1/2, which after taking into account the probability of development and injuries is probably <6 years of 1/2 club control. </p>
very good observation
about the fact that the economy of their contracts means less to NYY than it does to other teams. That is certainly true.
However, when you go into detail about who would get what, the value of each player gets muddled by WHOSE PERSPECTIVE the player is viewed from. Are we giving up a #1 and a #2 because they fill those roles for the A's? Blanton would not be a #2 on ANY AL playoff team's rotation, just a solid #3, and Haren similarly would not be a clear #1 on any of those teams. He would be at best a co-#1 and in some cases even a co-#2. These pitchers are the top two on our team, but that doesn't mean they "ARE" #1 or #2 wherever they go. The pitchers that we would get back are #3,4,5 for NYY, but would be #2,3 for us. It's all relative (to the ability/willingness of ownership to throw money at marginally talented players).
The flipside...
The Yankees will certainly be over the luxury cap and will be paying an 50 cents on every additional dollar they spend. If the Yanks trade for Santana, they will give him an extension at $20-25 mil/year, with an addtional $10-12 mil as a luxury tax.
Bottom line: just looking at the next three years, Santana would cost the yanks about $105 million ($70 salary + $35 luxury tax), While Haren will only run them about $27 mil ($18 salary + $9 luxury tax).
I don't care how much money they have as a franchise, that's gotta be worth something on the bargaining table.
I don't understand why Bobby Crosby ...
is in this deal ...
NY doesn't need a SS ... following the trade, we wouldn't have a SS, he doesn't make enough for it to make sense as a pure salary dump, it just doesn't make sense ... though it would be funny if we used all the money we saved and the position we opened up to go sign A-Rod out from under their nose (he still hasn't signed, right?) ...
Bobby Crosby
is included in this deal because I want to see him play for a team that I hate so I can laugh,instead of cry, when he pops up on the infield on a 3-1 pitch with no outs and runners on 2nd and third. LOL
So we would have
two 2nd basemen, and no short stop? Ellis cant play SS due to his poor arm, and you cant bench him becuase he was argualbly the most valuable hitter on the team last year. And why would NY want a broken down CF and another SS? Terrible trade for both sides.

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