2008 Projections – Position Players
by baseballgirl on Dec 30, 2007 10:30 AM PST
in News
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PrintFrom Shandler’s 2008 Baseball Forecaster:
Daric Barton
AB: 518
BA: .268
HR: 14
RBI: 62
OBP: .363
SLG: .437
Travis Buck - CORRECTED
AB: 411
BA: .285
OBP: .354
SLG: .485
Eric Chavez
AB: 404
BA: .255
HR: 19
RBI: 61
OBP: 33.9
SLG: .462
Bobby Crosby
AB: 355
BA: .245
HR: 9
RBI: 32
OBP: .304
SLG: .376
Jack Cust
AB: 453
BA: .238
HR: 23
RBI: 75
OBP: .384
SLG: .445
Mark Ellis
AB: 535
BA: .264
HR: 20
RBI: 75
OBP: .321
SLG: .445
Dan Johnson
AB: 426
BA: .256
HR: 17
RBI: 66
OBP: .354
SLG: .431
Mark Kotsay
AB: 294
BA: .255
HR: 3
RBI: 31
OBP: .316
SLG: .352
Kurt Suzuki
AB: 360
BA: .247
HR: 7
RBI: 50
OBP: .322
SLG: .363
Nick Swisher
AB: 541
BA: .251
HR: 27
RBI: 82
OBP: .357
SLG: .465
I think these numbers look pretty accurate, although I have a couple of questions. If it was my team, I would do my best to make sure that Dan Johnson doesn’t get 426 ABs. Another interesting note is that finally, finally Bobby Crosby’s numbers reflect his real performance, and don’t expect him to be the breakout MVP of the league. Even so, I think his projected .245 average is a little on the generous side.
I also think Buck’s numbers are a little low; I certainly hope he will be better. (Note: That will teach me to copy numbers after holiday eggnog. I corrected Buck's numbers above.) It will be interesting to see Barton and Suzuki (I hope he gets more ABs than his projection).
Comments? Disagreements?
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Comments
Happy, Happy... Joy, Joy
That offense will probably be the worst in the league.
Disagreements:
- Dan Johnson better not get 426 AB's
- Buck's numbers are way off... He will hit above .275, over 10HRs, and OBP about .350
- Barton's OBP will be a smidge higher - .380
That has to be the 13th or 14th ranked offense in the AL. I think Buck has a breakout year. Barton will be fun to watch, too.
Ouch
Buck's numbers are incredibly pessimistic; Buck as that hitter would be Erstad. I would expect Buck to comfortably exceed those numbers by at least .050 points of OBP and at least .050 of slugging percentage. The other rate stats seem about right, although Suzuki might be slightly better than that.
by BlameChannel53 on Dec 30, 2007 10:34 AM PST reply actions
Very harsh on Buck and Barton
Buck in particular, since he had a great year last year, and his minor league numbers are also excellent at every stop.
And he REALLY loves Chavez. 33.9 OBP? Wow.
If Chavy gets on base nearly 3400% of the time,
the A's will win every game.
by Philip Christy on Dec 30, 2007 11:18 AM PST up reply actions
Agreed
Did this guy even SEE Buck play last year? Buck's OBP under .300? Wow.
by Tyler Bleszinski on Dec 30, 2007 11:37 AM PST up reply actions
That's not the correct projection from his book.
by OaktownPower on Dec 30, 2007 11:53 PM PST up reply actions
Trust King James
Bill James has Buck hitting .289/.376/.478 next season. Looks a lot better to me.
by pinkfloyd @ Athletics Nation on Dec 30, 2007 11:53 AM PST up reply actions
Shandler's 2008 Baseball Forecaster?
I'm probably the only one here who doesn't recognize that one, but the name makes it sound like some old farmer's almanac from the 19th century.
What does he base his projections on -- how fast the maple sap is flowing, the date of the first appearance of stripey-legged apple weevils, and how many of his toes ache?
Oh, and if he's right? We. Are. Going. To. Suck.
Ron Shandler
His stuff is marketed more towards players of fantasy ball.
His stuff appears to be fairly well regarded.
Maybe he loves Chavy so much
because he was part of the team that rebuilt Chavy and he knows that they made him...Better. Stronger. Faster.
We can rebuild him. We have the technology.
by Tyler Bleszinski on Dec 30, 2007 11:40 AM PST reply actions
Almost all the projections..
are on the low side if you ask me. Not for just the A's, for everyone. ZIPS/CHONE ect.. are always very conservative.
Bill James or the projectios
that are released under his name, tend to be very optimistic.
You can find them
on www.fangraphs.com
They are on the individual player pages.
The Buck projection
looks WAY too low. He's projecting Buck to hit worse than Crosby. Given Crosby's past 2 years, given Buck's performance in MLB last year, and given Buck's performance in the minors, that seems ridiculous.
The Swisher projection looks low too.
The Crosby projection OTOH, looks a bit high. If he struggles with injuries again, which those AB totals appear to assume, I would expect him to have another 2006 / 2007 type season.
The Chavez projection also looks a bit high, again given the assumption of an injury riddled season that those AB totals appear to project. If he is injury riddled again, he's likely worse. If he is healthy, likely better.
cust
looks low as well across the board (to me, anyway).
Observations
Dan Johnson's OBP looks pretty generous to me. Or if it's really right, then why does everyone think he's so worthless? Those numbers aren't stupendous, but they're not so bad either.
Also, it just seems weird to me that Cust and Ellis have the same SLG. Maybe it's because Cust walks so much, but that just doesn't feel right.
His OBP was 349 last season
It's popular to rip DJ but he aint all that bad in my view, and he's certainly capable of surprising some people this coming season.
by pinkfloyd @ Athletics Nation on Dec 30, 2007 12:19 PM PST up reply actions
But
he slugged .418 last year. There is no reason he should be starting at first base on a major-league club.
by Philip Christy on Dec 30, 2007 12:26 PM PST up reply actions
Garbage Unless Otherwise Proven
What kind of track record does this guy have, particularly in terms of younger players? He projects full seasons from Dan Johnson, Jack Cust, Travis Buck, AND Daric Barton, with all of them having crummy years. No way would that happen. If these are the kind of years A's hitters are having, then the final line-up at the end of the season will looking nothing like it did at the beginning, and these guys will get nowhere near the kind of at-bat totals they're given here.
Shandler is essentially writing off the entire A's scouting staff and Beane's instincts. Without further info on Shandler, I'd say he could well be the William Kristol of baseball prognostication.
by richwol on Dec 30, 2007 12:27 PM PST reply actions
Who would play instead?
Barton is here to stay this year barring injury, and the same goes for Buck. They will probably get playing time regardless of performance because the A's are going to largely suck anyway and those players are the future. I find it hard to believe Johnson gets that many at bats unless he fills in for injured players. Cust may be on a slightly shorter leash than Buck and Barton, but who plays DH if he doesn't? It's not like the A's have a lot of other options waiting around in the minors.
by BlameChannel53 on Dec 30, 2007 12:38 PM PST up reply actions
Other Options
If Crosby is hitting .245, he's getting replaced by Petit. If Buck's OBP is under .300, he's back in the minors. If Cust can only manage 23 homers by the end of September, it means he's released in July.
At that point, you'll see Denorfia, Gonzalez, Petit and God knows who else Beane has trolled for around the minors, not to mention Hanahan in the OF as well. What you won't see is Dan Johnson in another full-fledged sub-par season as a 1B/DH.
by richwol on Dec 30, 2007 12:48 PM PST up reply actions
We'll see . . .
Beane tends exercise a great deal of patience with players that he likes.
by BlameChannel53 on Dec 30, 2007 12:56 PM PST up reply actions
Beane? Patience?
Beane tends to have patience with older players with track records, but not so much with the kids (except for Crosby). If Buck can't get a .300 OBP in the majors after a partial year under his belt, it means he's probably an AAAA player at best. If Cust's HR totals go down over a full season, then he's not good enough to be in the A's future, and he'll be sent packing as well. Crosby's reaching the end of his time in Oakland and if he can't cut it for another year, he'll also be gone pretty quickly, and then Beane could have patience with Petit.
Shandler is saying that none of the A's players will have breakout years, that none of the A's players will have career or near-career years, that Beane will sit on crappy players and not try something new. In effect, he's given the A's scouting and coaching staff, and Beane himself, a giant finger. Which is why it's kind of important to look at the track record.
by richwol on Dec 30, 2007 1:11 PM PST up reply actions
If Shandler is mainly interested in fantasy ball
as rfloh mentions above, then his projections would be valid whoever these guys are playing for (assuming they're in the majors). That wouldn't apply to sending Buck down, but it would apply to DJ or Kotsay being traded.
Correct
Those are projections if the player stays in the majors, so I guess I shouldn't be jumping all over that one.
Did a little research here. Shandler is extremely well-respected in the industry. A caveat, though, from Jonah Keri over at espn.com:
<< With all these tools at their disposal, you might expect the experts to achieve huge success rates, routinely nailing the vast majority of their projections. But various studies, done by industry leaders and outsiders alike, peg the success rate for a typical weighted three-year projection system... at about 65 percent. The goal for primo projectionists is to eke out a bit more accuracy, for a year-to-year success rate approaching 70 percent.>>
by richwol on Dec 30, 2007 2:14 PM PST up reply actions
Chavy gonna hit .255? now way more like .220
by 3Chavy3 on Dec 30, 2007 12:38 PM PST reply actions
I'm thinking Kotsay won't outhit Buck,
but that's just me.
With averages like these
. . . the A's will be lucky to win 60 games.
by jarforcefatherofforce on Dec 30, 2007 1:30 PM PST reply actions
I know, Chavy with 60 rbi? With that many ab's
he will have close to 100, and 30 hr's
by theblackpearl on Dec 30, 2007 2:09 PM PST up reply actions
Really?
He had 341 AB last year and drove in a whole 46....this is only like 60 more AB. Hell, he only had 72 the year before in 485 AB. No way he drives in 100 with that many AB.
by OaktownPower on Dec 30, 2007 11:57 PM PST up reply actions
Generally
I like to concede a lot to projection systems, because, after all, I'm just a dude with his hunches and they're an objective numbers based computer program. Chances are they can do a much better job than I.
That said, I don't have a clue where the Buck and Swisher projections are coming from.
Swisher loses 25 points of OBP, making it his worst since his rookie year, yet stays completely in line with his career AVG and SLG numbers? Huh? What accounts for this phantom loss of walks.
Now Buck just doesn't make any sense. I'm not even the biggest Buck fan, like some here, but I think he'll at least hit in the .270/.340/.430 range. I can even see where someone might expect him to be a little worse early on, but .245/.299/.374 is downright terrible, and that he is not.
If, If, If.....
If Barton doesn't reach those levels, if Buck only reaches those levels and if we see so few ABs from Crosby and so many ABs from DJ - we are in for one long year.
Barton and Swisher need to show leadership abilities; an ability to carry the offensive load. Cust just needs to swing hard and clear the bases when he can. I am rather new to AN and see I am in a minority position believing that Crosby can still be what we all hoped so long ago. Chavy is a complimentary player but will never have the kind of offensive stats to lead and be a legit #3 or 4 hitter. So again, Barton and Swisher are the guys you'd want hitting there with Cust in the 5 hole. I think we will see a different outfield almost every day for awhile. Gonzo, Kotsay, Dino, Buck, Swisher - Geren will play em all.
And by the way - when I found this site I expected more negatives about Geren. I don't like him; don't like demeanor; don't like his body language...just don't like him. It is the most profound Beane negative that a higher profile and more experienced manager would likely not want to manage for him (see Jim Leland).
i don't give a poopy about the manager
seriously. a manager can either do nothing for me, or he can irritate me. tony la russa irritated me for being a blowhard who took himself too friggin' seriously. art howe i kind of liked because he seemed like a nice guy, except that he would pour ricardo rincon on certain smoldering fires. or was that macha? macha's ads for on demand tv and his dynamic interviews were legendary... well, anywho, i care so much more about who is playing than who gets to talk with robert buanfire. if it was me, i would have the cutest player's wife managing because the manager gets so much camera time. or maybe i would combine the manager/PA jobs for home games, so that the manager would have to announce, "now batting, Terrance Long!"... or maybe bring back the ol' combo player manager like frank robinson and pete rose did at the end of their careers. which A's player would AN like to see manage? (i fear that many will choose the player that seems like the 'grittiest gamer' and so i'll go against the grain and pick, say, rich harden since we otherwise get to see so little of him).. i think that there are so many candidates who can lead us to a 3rd or 4th place 2008 finish, but maybe i would go with geren anyway because they've already made a uniform for him and he hasn't managed to become dick nolan yet.
Oh yeah, the old body language argument
Here you go:
Bob Geren is too satisfied. The team isn't winning, so what the hell is he doing telling reporters he's enjoying himself? He needs to show the fans how pissed off and miserable he is. If he did then the team would win more games.
Also, we should have kept Tejada instead of Chavez because Chavez just walks back to the dugout after being called out on strikes, whereas Tejada would stomp and throw his bat and yell "f---". If Chavez could learn to do make better use of the F-bomb he wouldn't strike out so much, but he'll never learn because he has the wrong body language.
Just like Geren.
We still should have kept Tejada.
Finally! Someone who understands
the importance of profanity when attempting to hit a baseball. Especially a profane and semi violent manager. A commodity which is much underrated around here if you ask me. Better yet, Geren should cold cock Crosby after he slinks back to the dugout after his third K in a game. That'll teach him a lesson and will most likely remove him from the lineup for at least 10 weeks.
I like the cut of your jib.
We should get involved in land war in Asia together.
by Leopold Bloom on Dec 31, 2007 11:04 AM PST up reply actions
I know batting averages are not in style
But, these numbers are flat-out depressing. If these projections are realized, Barton's .268 avg will lead the team!!! That just.. sucks.
well okay
When your tongue isn't in your cheek you make a little sense - any manager should be able to guide the A's to a 3rd or 4th place finish this year. But as we progress towards a new stadium wouldn't it be nice to get a manager that free-agents (not the washed up Piazza, Blowers, Justice types) would like to play for?
And maybe it's my heart talking - but I wish Mr. Giambi would get the heck out of NY and come back to DH for us. He could grow his hair back and even without the juice he can still rake the ball and lead younger players (although I think he qualifies as one of the previously mentioned washed up types).
I'll take a blindfolded
one-legged version of Jack Cust over Giambi. Even if their salaries were equal.
I don't know about that.
I wouldn't mind a resurgent Giambi with an ax to grind and a point to prove. Perhaps he could rediscover what it's like to play baseball when its a fun endeavor. Plus, I'm sure he could school our younger players on the perils of selling their souls to the highest bidder.
And he could do it all
for 80 games a year.
Good point on the whole selling-your-soul-to-the-devil though.
Miggy and Jason . . .
. . . are not coming back. If they did, they are not the same players who left. We have some new young guys to root for and they need to play. The only constant in baseball is change.
What makes you think free agents don't want to play for Garen?
by jarforcefatherofforce on Dec 31, 2007 4:19 PM PST up reply actions
This is the most comically pessimistic
set of projections I've seen anywhere. The A's wouldn't hit this badly next year if MLB raised the mound and strike zone to 1968 levels again.
I think this can safely be laughed off as ridiculous.
These projections are
ridiculously bad. I realize we are going to suck next year, but come on.
As we stand right now...
If we can stay somewhat healthy we can win 80. If Blanton/Street/Ellis is traded then it will be bad.
If Harden steps in for Haren we shouldnt be that bad. Alot of Ifs I know but possible.
Ha...
I think you mean "I think these numbers will be pretty accurate" -- or are you that psychic? ;)
I couldn't project how players are going to do any better than I can project the weather, so I don't think I have much to say. But I do think trying to project RBI is kind of silly -- don't you have to be right on a number of other players to get the RBI projection right on one player?
by FormerHuntsvilleStar on Dec 30, 2007 6:42 PM PST reply actions
I hope these are off, otherwise
WE ARE GOING TO SUCK!!!!!!!!!
With zero run support and a rotation of Blanton, DiNardo, Duke(?), Eveland (?), Gaudin (?)(anyone else(?)) those kind of numbers scream 100 loss season.
They seem a little on the "worst case scanario side." I doubt the '08 Athletics will be lighting the scoreboard on fire, but these come off as especially dire.
What the Buck?
Like most everybody else, Buck's doesn't make any sense. Nothing suggests he'll do that poorly. Did the A's tell him that he has to bat only right-handed next year or something?
I think Crosby's projection is optimistic. Yes, optimistic. I think he's one of the worst regulars in all of baseball. If he cracks .300 with his OBP it's a fantastic year for him.
I think Kotsay's projection is probably optimistic, too. If he gets more than 100 PAs with the A's, I'm angry. He has no business being on a roster. I don't wish the guy harm, but the A's are better if he's on the 60-Day DL all season. He brings nothing to the table anymore.
I think Cust's projection is only a little low, and I don't see anything wrong with it. Getting an .829 OPS from a league minimum DH is great value.
I don't see Ellis putting up 20 homers. I don't see Swisher forgetting how to walk. Suzuki has demonstrated (at every level) that he'll be better than that projection. And I'm not sure Eric Chavez is doing to hit 40 doubles or more (which he'd have to do with such a high slugging percentage and only 19 HRs).
I have high hopes for Swisher, Buck, Barton, Suzuki, and Cust. I think Crosby is beyond useless, Dan Johnson is a solid player who has no spot here, and Eric Chavez is hated so much he's actually a very underrated player now.
Is PECOTA out yet?
by thejd44 on Dec 30, 2007 8:00 PM PST reply actions
Can Crosby . . .
. . . be sent to Sacramento?
by jarforcefatherofforce on Dec 31, 2007 4:24 PM PST up reply actions
Even if he hits .274,
it doesn't bode well for the A's offense if their 1Bman can't stay awake at the plate.
The Buck projection is listyed wrong here...
Shandler likes Buck and has him at .285 in 411 AB with a .354 OBP and .485 slugging.
You're right...thanks!
by baseballgirl on Dec 30, 2007 11:57 PM PST up reply actions
WE'RE ALL GONNA DIE!!!
that projection is overly pessimistic
At worst, we'll likely ALL BE IN A VEGETATIVE COMA!!!
At best...
WE'RE ALL GONNA GET A REAL BAD HANGNAIL!!!
Hey, have you ever had a really bad hangnail?
It's quite unpleasant.
Concerning projections
I think that we will have 2 or 3 guys who will do much better than these projections. Don't know who but we will.
Where does Dan Johnson play?? Can he be moved to be Chavez's backup at 3B? Can he play the outfield? I just don't see where he fits into the team's plan.
I think the A's should bring in a free-agent right handed hitter. (Possibly Stewart, Sweeney, Preston Wilson) I am not in favor of breaking the bank but we need some players.
They should look to bring in a veteran starter as well.
some will say NO, NO to adding free agents. We are rebuilding. Yes, BUT they have many injured pitchers and untested rookies. We need to fill out a roster.
Also, if we brought in 3 free-agents in the (1-2 million dollar price range). Lets say we get lucky with 2 of them and they have good years. Well, then Beane might be able to use those guys to trade for prospects as well, if we are out of the race.
I would hate to see the team rush guys to the majors. If the prospects from Arizona aren't ready then keep them in the minors for a year.
Adjustments
- Barton's full-season batting average will be higher; maybe in the .280 range.
- DJ might get that many at-bats, but they certainly won't come in an Oakland uniform.
- Swisher's OBP will probably be 15-20 points higher, at least .370+.
Everything else, especially with Buck's corrected numbers, seem about right.
Bill James' Projections for our lineup
look a little better.
LF .289/.376/.478/.854 Travis Buck
1B .274/.364/.423/.787 Daric Barton
RF .262/.380/.480/.860 Nick Swisher
DH .254/.402/.490/.892 Jack Cust
3B .259/.343/.469/.812 Eric Chavez
CF .310/.375/.460/.835 Chris Denorfia
2B .270/.338/.420/.758 Mark Ellis
C1 .259/.337/.389/.726 Kurt Suzuki
SS .245/.313/.395/.708 Bobby Crosby
Wow, pretty good AVG for Denorfia
Guy has like a career .330 average in AAA
Bill James is generally optimistic for hitters by 20 OPS points or so, but that still leaves CD well above average as a hitter.
I keep saying the guy's not chopped liver...
I'm excited about Denorfia
I'd just caution that when a guy hasn't played for a year, you have to expect some rust. Frank Thomas is one of the best hitters of our generation and look at how he started in 2006. (Of course, I fully expect 25 HR and 70 RBI from Denorfia after the ASB).
Very optimistic projection for Chavez
Chavez has not exceeded an .800 OPS since 2004 and will be recovering from three surgeries this year. A healthy Chavez is certainly capable of meeting or exceeding the projection, but I will believe that Chavez is healthy when I actually see it. Here's how I would bet on these projections:
Taking the over:
Barton (I think his batting average will be better and will pull up his OBP slightly and slugging by 20 points)
Taking the under:
Chavez (until he proves he's healthy I can't pretend it's 2004 again)
Cust (.240/.360/.480 is more in line with what he will reasonably achieve without improved contact skills)
Denorfia (I think his batting average is more likely in the .290 range, pulling his other numbers down a bit)
Too close to call:
The projections for Buck, Swisher, Ellis, Suzuki, and Crosby are very close to what I would project.
The real question mark for systems attempting to project the A's will not be the rate projections, but the counting stat projections. Chavez is obviously a question mark, and Buck has yet to prove that health is one of his skills. Denorfia is not so much an injury risk (TJ for a position player is not a big deal) as he is a Geren preference risk. If Kotsay is "healthy" or Chavez has to DH while Cust plays the OF, Denorfia's rate stats might come in part-time duty.
by BlameChannel53 on Jan 1, 2008 2:58 AM PST up reply actions
Wow
You think Crosby will get 300 Ab's?
Pshh and Harden will pitch 50 innings.
by smartkidfromcarmel on Jan 1, 2008 9:03 PM PST reply actions
Crosby might get 300 ABs
In 303 plate appearances. :-(
Let me clear up some things
As an avid reader and user of Ron Shandler's Baseball Forecaster, I've obviously come to understand the projectons a little differently then the people on here who have the book and have not READ THE WHOLE THING, and those of you who have never seen the book, or know who Ron Shandler is.
First off, the projections aren't the reason why Shandler publishes the book. As someone said earlier in the comments section, using even the most advanced tools and metrics and applications, they can still only predict to a 65%-70% accuracy. Shandler acknowledges this.
HE also notes on playing time on page 7 of the 2007 version of the book: "This book does not attempt to tackle playing time. Rather then making arbitrary decisions about how roles will shake out, we focus on performance"
Finally, Shandler's note on page 4 about his projections: "Some people buy this book for the projected statistics alone, and live and die by them. That's a mistake. It's like going to a ballgame, being given a choice of any seat in the park, and deliberately choosing the last row in the right field corner with an obstrutced view. The projections are there, you can look at them, but there are so many better places to sit. We have to publish those numbers, but performace is highly variable. Best to treat them as general expectation, not as gospel"
Hope this clears things up, and I suggest you all buy a copy of this book form www.amazon.com or www.baseballhq.com. It's a great read, and the metrics he uses are incredibly insightful.
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