Hound Doggin' It About the Winter Meetings
by Tyler Bleszinski on Dec 3, 2007 11:30 AM PST
in News
Email
PrintThe Winter Meetings are now officially underway in Music City and if I remember correctly, the last couple of years nothing major happened at the Winter Meetings even though it was expected that something would. Although it was a place where the groundwork was often laid down for something to happen. Usually right around the middle of December seems to be when the A's actually act on what they intend to do.
That being said, I wouldn't be surprised to see Santana and Cabrera both get dealt in the next few days. The Twins are being offered some pretty damn good packages despite the fact that the team getting Santana will be taking the risk that they'll only be getting him for one year. And yeah, that's probably why we're only seeing teams chasing Santana that can actually afford to sign him long-term. But remember, no one is going to be forcing Santana to re-sign wherever he ends up. He could potentially decide that he wants to go to free agency which could be a very smart move, especially if the Red Sox wind up with him and the Yankees want to turn the tables on the Beantowners.
Any way, I do think it's going to take Santana being dealt for the A's to figure out who is willing to pony up the most. Jayson Stark puts it simply in his latest column:
If you believe the scuttlebutt, he asked the Yankees for two of their big three -- Hughes, Joba Chamberlain and Ian Kennedy -- plus at least one more player. Same with the Red Sox, who supposedly were asked for two of their three usual suspects -- Buchholz, Lester and Ellsbury -- plus more. The Mets reportedly were asked for both Carlos Gomez and Fernando Martinez. Etc., etc.
That price tag has inspired a lot of muttering so far. But those shoppers keep coming back for another look, so Beane is holding his ground.
And Beane should very well hold his ground. I mean, Haren is younger than Santana and he's more affordable for more years. But we've already talked about that. Ultimately it should be an interesting few days, but I'm not anticipating anything happening. If the A's do something it probably won't happen until after Santana is gone and possibly even later into the Winter. Although the Angels could very well be getting Cabrera any day now which could radically shift what the A's are doing (Beane admitted to that line of thinking in a recent article on SFGate). So it's definitely going to be a fascinating few days. We'll see if it's all speculation like the last few years or if the bombshells like Hudson and Mulder being traded happen again. I don't really want Haren to be dealt as I feel like talents like Dan's don't come around very often and the chances of catching that kind of player again are slim. But I wouldn't mind seeing Blanton dealt or even Street.
43 comments
|
0 recs |
Do you like this story?
Comments
Santana has a no-trade clause
He will waive it if Minny trades him now. The no-trade is his leverage to get an extension signed now, that way he doesn't have to worry about an injury or a bad season. He's also (supposedly) said he'd like to play for the Yankees.
I'm with you Blez...
for Beane to trade Haren he will have to get blown away with an offer. I do feel he will push hard for trades of Blanton and Street and will pull the trigger if the parts match. If the Angels get Cabrera that might tip him towards going to full rebuild where Haren could go as well. Even then he wouldn't do that until he got what he wanted. It will be interesting to see how things progress in the coming days.
by Miggy on Dec 3, 2007 11:22 AM PST reply actions
Good job by Beane
There's no reason Haren shouldn't bring a return like Santana. Yeah, he's not as good, but he's damned good, cheaper, and under control for three more years.
If the loser of the Santana sweepstakes wants to crap their pants and give us the kind of package detailed above, by all means, let them. But otherwise Haren stays.
Agree...however
In the eyes of the yankees and red sox, this doesnt really matter. They have no problem shelling out the cash.
Haren affordable for 3yrs is "nice" but its not the big prize that Santana is from their standpoint. Not sure if the other team will want to pay the same price for the runner up.
I could see it going either way regarding Haren getting traded, but my gut says that Haren will stay but Blanton will get traded.
by pickinmachine on Dec 3, 2007 11:36 AM PST up reply actions
OTOH
A team like the Dodgers who has money but isn't exactly as cash rich as the Yankees or Red Sox because of McCourt's thinner pockets, Haren or Blanton would be a perfect fit for them because they are cheaper and younger.
by Tyler Bleszinski on Dec 3, 2007 11:40 AM PST up reply actions
trade Haren now
I think Haren had a breakout year in 2007 but I seriously doubt he can duplicate it again. To me, Haren is a 15 game winner with a 4.30 ERA kind of guy -- not bad for today's watered down league, but hardly dominant.
Haren's trade value is at the highest right now. If he get hit hard at the beginning of 2008, we'll be lucky to get an amatuer draft pick for him. I'm not suggesting we trade him for peanuts now, but one out of the 3 Yanks' or 2 Bosox pitchers in return will be great for the A's.
by hollandcl on Dec 3, 2007 11:45 AM PST reply actions
Um, dude
The guy's been top 10 in strikeouts for 3 years straight. His career ERA-- career, mind you, including his stats from 2003 when he clearly wasn't ready for the bigs-- is 3.82.
I literally cannot figure out where you're coming from with this.
2nd half
Did you see Haren's performance in the 2nd half of 2007? He was strictly a 6 innings guy with an average ERA. He was lucky that he was dominant during the first half, otherwise his final numbers would only be average. Do you believe that Haren can duplicate the first half of 2007 in 2008? I doubt it but you may disagree.
I didn't say we should trade him for a bag of peanuts but I'm also against keeping him. If we can get Lester, Bucholtz, Joba, Kennedy, or Hughes plus 2 other prospects, we should pull the trigger.
by hollandcl on Dec 3, 2007 12:28 PM PST up reply actions
OK, so, we could look at the 2nd half
of one season.
Or, we could look at his entire career.
I guess it's up to you.
BTW, after the ASB, Haren's BABIP (for his career, almost exactly league-average) was .355. Out of every single pitcher who threw 80 innings after the Break, he was dead last in BABIP by 26 points, after finishing third-best before the break.
Apart from BABIP (a function of luck and defense), there was literally no difference between 1st half Haren and 2nd half Haren. He actually increased his strikeouts over the 2nd half.
2006 and 2007
Instead of the 2nd half of 2007, Let's look at Haren's numbers from the beginning of 2006 to end of 2007. I think you will agree that his numbers from the last 2 seasons are more indicative of Haren's skills than any previous ones.
Haren's numbers for the entire 2006 was average at best, including his ERA, innings to hits ratio, decent K numbers but offset by the number of HRs he gave up. He had a very strong 3 months in 2007 and then falter down the stretch. His second half numbers were similar to his 2006 stats.
IMO, what we saw of Haren in 2006 and the second half of 2007 is more indicative of what Haren is capable of long term, rather than the first 3 months of 2007. Does he stink? No, but is he a 20 game winner with a sub 3.20 ERA? Not likely either.
by hollandcl on Dec 3, 2007 10:33 PM PST up reply actions
yeah, Haren was a bit lucky overall in 2007
his ERA probably should have fallen around 3.4 instead of 3.07. Slightly fluky home run rate and LOB%.
But you're way off base calling any of Haren's numbers "decent" or "average at best." He's easily one of the top 15 starters in the AL and has been consistently over the last 3 seasons. I fully expect an ERA around 3.8, a K/BB ratio of 3+, and a WHIP around 1.25 from Haren next season. He's very, very good.
And sucks to wins. Danny would have had more last season if it weren't for the bullpen.
No one except mid-career Pedro
projects as a sub-3.2 ERA pitcher every season. Even Johan Santana isn't a sure thing to post numbers that good, and he's the best pitcher in baseball.
So, essentially what you're saying is that Haren isn't the best pitcher in baseball. Which is true, he isn't. He is, however, better than the average team's best pitcher. That's what an ace is.
Again, Haren didn't "falter." He got bad luck and bad defense. That's it. In every single other respect, he was the same pitcher from the first half. Go look up the splits. All of his numbers track the BABIP-- except for his home run rate, which was independent of it, as it should be.
+1
Haren was 11th in baseball in xFIP last season, 9th the year before. He's one of the top 10 pitchers in baseball in terms of performance, and rates higher if you include his durability (7th and 6th in Pitching Runs Created last two season). Throw in his contract, and he's one of the 10 most valuable players in the game.
So fine..he had a bad second half...
His ERA was still lower in that 2nd half than what you have projected him for going forward. No one says he was great 2nd half, but he surely wont be worse for a whole season. 4.30 ERA just has no basis to it, anything can happen of course, but there is very little evidence to fall back on for that prediction.
Santana
Here's what we know: Santana will only go to New York or Boston. He has a no-trade clause (what genius thought that up? The guy wasn't even a free agent!).
So Beane can basically have negotiations with the other suitors for his pitchers now without worrying about what Santana is doing, because it doesn't affect them.
I still feel like Blanton-to-the-Dodgers is a reasonable option. Heck, if the team wanted to try to compete next year, they could still agree to whatever trade they come up with (my current idea is Blanton and Chavez for LaRoche, Hu, a AA pitcher, and an A outfielder), and also take Loaiza back! He'd certainly be a downgrade from Blanton, but not so much of one that the team might not be a better club in 2008 with the other prospects in the lineup.
Word.
That means "I agree with you."
by The Dogfather on Dec 3, 2007 1:02 PM PST up reply actions
Pirates and Jason Bay?
It sounds like Bay is on the market. Why not deal Haren or Blanton to the Pirates for Bay and some of their good, young pitching? I guess the problem is that the Pirates are looking for prospects too.
Prospects
If Beane can turn Haren and Blanton into (pick two) Ellsbury, Chaimberlin, Kershaw, and Martinez, he should do it because two years from now the A's would come out ahead.
Haren is better than Ellsbury
and there's really no reason to think that will ever change. The others might one day become better, but also might bust out.
There are no guarantees in the world of prospects. Look at Harden-- the guy was a Grade A star in the making up until August '05, and then... well, we all know what happened then.
AAA-rated-answer
Beane used to answer the telephone (according to an interview with him) with "Rich Harden isn't available" instead of "Hello", just because he was getting asked every single call! Shows you how much interest a "can't miss" player can generate, and now, shows you how far from fruition some players can turn out.
I am speculating, but I'd say, Beane isn't going to trade Danny Haren, no matter how good the package. It's like the car in the showroom window: You don't sell that one until every car that your really want to sell is gone. Yet that's the first one you see when you approach the place as a buyer.
Despite the losing record, the way to a successful team starts with pitching, ends with pitching. Why would the A's want to trade places with someone who desires good pitching? (rhetorical)
by One won lost won on Dec 3, 2007 3:45 PM PST up reply actions
I assume you mean ...
two of those guys plus 2-3 other quality prospects from their respective organizations, right?
Somebody help me out here ...
Why are we talking about trading Huston Street?
I know he's affordable, and for a closer he's a real bargain. But isn't that the main reason to keep him, at least for two more years or so? Our issue in recent years is that we only have money for one/maybe two big splash-type signings (Piazza, Loaiza types). Closers are ALWAYS expensive. Why should we drop $8 mil or more on a closer, when a) we have one who's cheap and b) we need that money for the offense?
I don't get it. Will somebody please explain why everyone's talking about trading Huston?
Didn't you read your TOS agreement??
You have to try to trade everyone, including the owner and Billy Beane, when you write an entry on AN.
Fail to Trade? Go to Prison! It's the Law!
by One won lost won on Dec 3, 2007 3:49 PM PST up reply actions
Do you think Boston would give Ellsbury for Wolff?
Ellsbury's checks would bounce
when he tried to make payroll.
by One won lost won on Dec 3, 2007 7:53 PM PST up reply actions
Crosbino, I think it's because
teams will overpay for closers when they don't have one, and from the A's POV they could make do for a decent closer even with what they already have - either with Duke, or with a combo of Embree and Brown - while really upgrading a hole (e.g., SS, a #3 starter, a true CFer, the minor league system).
Personally, I see a fit with the Brewers. I'd think they'd love to add Street, and their team is overstocked with SS/CF/right-handed-bat types - for example, Hall, Hardy, and Hart whose names all happen to begin with "H". Coincidence? Well, obviously.
But to me, Blanton - Dodgers and Street - Brewers are the most natural fits.
Street's value is high right now...
given his salary and productivity. Teams that are rebuilding, like the A's likely will be doing, don't need real closers- they can get by with guys like Embree and give some other young RP's a try out. By the time the A's are in contention again Street will be looking at a larger contract and Beane ypically doesn't want to shell out big $$ for closers (even more so after the Rhodes dibacle I would guess). I'm also concerned about Street's long-term health.
by Miggy on Dec 3, 2007 3:45 PM PST reply actions
I don't get this
I fully understand the arguments for trading Haren, Blanton, and Street. I even agree with them to some degree to satisfy the part of me that loves watching young guys play.
But then I start to think of the crappy teams in the league and Tampa Bay, KC, Pirates, until recently Miluakee, Washington, Houston, Texas, Baltimore and Cincinati and I see a common theme among them: They have poor-really poor pitching. Teams strive to have great pitching and with those three and possibly Guadin we have a young, inexpensive, and highly competitive pitching core. That kind of pitching doesn't come around a lot and yes you can look at Hughes, Kennedy, Lester, Bucholtz, and whoever and see good pitching prospects but they are not established, productive Major Leage pitchers.
It's not like our team is 5-10 good players away from competing; we only need 1-2 to realistically be back in the 90-95 win range and I see no reason to break it up like this. Add maybe another starter and of course the proverbial right-handed bat and I think we're right there with the Angels. Even if they do acquire Cabrera I still feel we're there because they're an injury to Vlad, Hunter, Rivera, any of their starters, and/or Anderson away from being in trouble.
All that being said, I can see Blanton being traded for a pretty good haul, hopefully the Dodgers because I think the prospects they have to offer is the best out of any team, but I say/hope Haren and Street stay because they can both anchor the rotation and bullpen for years to come.
While I agree with you here,
I also have a lot more confidence in the A's system's production of elite pitchers than I do in its production of elite hitters. On the one hand you have Tejada and (pre-injury) Chavez, and possibly Barton and Swisher. On the other you have Mulder, Hudson, Zito, Harden, Haren, Blanton, Gaudin, and currently in the pipeline, Bailey, Madsen, Simmons, Cahill and Rodriguez. (Granted, not all of those are "elite." But Cahill and Rodriguez have ace potential, and I think Bailey could pull a Buchholz and come out of nowhere to be #2 material.)
Hm
Gaudin was evaluated by "our pipeline"
so it's six of one, half a dozen of the other.
As for the guys currently in the A's system, well, there may not be any Harens per se, but Rodriguez could be a Harden (100 MPH velocity) and Simmons shows every sign of Blantonlike tendencies. Cahill, by all reports, is grade-A ace material.
I mean, if the offers we're hearing about are legit (like Hughes, Kennedy and another guy for Haren) I think the A's have an excellent chance of coming out ahead. Haren+DiNardo < Hughes+Kennedy in my book.
I agree
Oh and we can only hope that Rodriguez is not the next Harden :p
by Helloooo 1st on Dec 3, 2007 10:38 PM PST up reply actions
Oh and...
I just want to add in for no reason in particular, Santana is being shopped because the Twins have no other choice, unless you count letting him walk next year as a choice, whereas the A's have no real reason to trade Haren unless they decide that rebuilding is the right path to take. But, as I've stated, I feel that rebuilding doesn't involve trading your staff leader when he's under contract and affordable.
Those teams have a lot of problems
Namely, lack of good young players, an inability to find inexpensive role players, and an inability to accurately asses their talent on the field.
I'll throw out there that Tampa Bay's pitching is actually pretty decent, but their defense was so awful their traditional stats (ERA etc.) were inflated. It will be much better next year thanks to their recent trade with Minnesota, which gave them a HUGE defensive upgrade in Bartlett at short.
You have to think
I feel the need to point some things out
Milwaukee has SP to spare, they're shooping at least 2 arms right now. Would Haren improve their rotation? Sure, but the cost would outweigh the gain. The Brewers really need relief pitching and Street would be an ideal fit. Tampa just signed Troy Percival to close so they won't be pursuing Street. They've already got Shields and Garza to team with Kazmir, I don't think they're looking for another SP. Besides, they're running out of prospects they can afford to part with.
Texas is actually more worried about their line-up than their pitching.
I think
A's lying in wait
...like a predator in the weeds.
RIOS
I guess Rios is available in the right deal. (Link below). If we have to trade Haren, let's go get this guy. no?
by em3 on Dec 4, 2007 8:15 AM PST reply actions
Toronto has no prospects to speak of
and the A's should not be looking to acquire established stars at this point. He's already to his arbitration years.
Add to this Rios is a. a right fielder, and b. not actually all that good.
Hold Tight Billy!
There is really no need to trade Dan Haren and I'm glad that Billy is going to hold out for two of the Joba Chamberlain/ Phil Hughes/ Ian Kennedy combo. There really is no reason to hold out for less. We certainly don't need Melky Cabrera's power-lite hitting (especially with the maturing of what could be a potent lineup with Buck, Barton and Swisher). Hold tight Billy and only move if we can pick their pockets!
Comments For This Post Are Closed
Secondary Sidebar
User Tools
FanPosts
Community blog posts and discussion.
Certain photos copyright © 2012 by Associated Press or Getty Images. Any commercial use or distribution without the express written consent of Associated Press and Getty Images is strictly prohibited.
