Future Athletic Roundup #1.6 – Prospect Gambling Edition

Sports writers are boring.  Every year we have to put up with a bunch of safe prospect lists, and by that I mean top 50, top 25, or top 10.  I really think Baseball Prospectus had it almost right when they went with a top eleven.  Eleven is an interesting number because it, for once, doesn’t go by the "must be divisible by five" rule most top prospect lists use, but I wanted to take it further.  More so then any sport, baseball prospects are a gamble (you can be the next Curt Schilling when you are drafted, and be organizational filler the next), and the number I felt best represented this "hit or miss" mentality was Black Jack’s own 21.

Future Athletic News (Prospect Reloading Edition):

Minor Trade:  In a small, almost under the radar trade, the A’s traded some unknown pitcher named Danny Haren for six scrubs.  None of them are any good and have crappy projections like hitting only 30 home runs a year, or doing useless things like striking people out.  If I feel omnipotent, I might stick a few of them in my top 21.

International Signings:  Billy Beane must not have been feeling well.  He went out and signed three international prospects to six figure signing bonuses.  Both Shortstop Omar Castillo and Pitcher Franklyn Contreras are from Venezuela and will most likely spend another year there.  Right handed pitcher Arnold Leon, from Mexico, not only will get a non-roster invite to spring training this year, but is also projected to start for A+ Stockton this year.  I’m happy to see Beane is finally opening up the pocket book to pump some depth into the A’s shallow development system.

Legacy of the Giants:  The A’s signed Todd Linden (OF) and Justin Knoedler (C), two ex-Giant minor leaguers.  Linden was an AAA MVP and Knoedler used to be considered the Giants catcher of the future.  Both these guys spent years being jerked around AAA and the majors by the Giants and if given a Jack Cust kind of chance, could be sleeper picks to make the team.  I’d like to see Linden be given a chance for the centerfielder job in spring training.

Minor Cuts and Scratches:  The A’s recently made five cuts to their minor league rosters.  Some were hopeless prospects, and others had some potential...just not much potential.  The biggest names were 27 year old reliever Shawn Kohn, who struggled in AAA Sacramento after a strong start in AA Midland, and 24 year old T.J. Franco Jr. who had a 2.67era in A- Kane County but struggled in A+ Stockton.  With the increased relief depth in the system, my take is these guys were just too low on the totem pole to be babied along with only a slim hope of ever getting a cup of coffee.  

Future Athletic Power Rankings:  Top 21 prospects

When I wrote this list I didn’t want to have to same 21 people everyone else has, so I tried to make a few interesting choices at the expense of some safe picks.  If you will, take notice of the lack of any 2B/SS/3B prospects and pray that Crosby has a healthy year and the A’s resign Ellis.  If you don’t like your favorite minor leaguer being left off...well...that’s what the comments are for; I can take a little criticism.

1. Daric Barton (1B/DH) – Out of all the A’s prospects he’s the most likely to succeed.  Somewhere Dan Johnson is crying.

2. Carlos Gonzalez (CF/RF) – One of the scrubs from the Danny Haren trade.  He can hit for average, punt 30 home runs a year, has the best outfield arm the A’s have seen since Mark Kotsay was healthy, and given a good spring training could be the A’s 2008 starting centerfielder.

3. Trevor Cahill (SP/RHP) – The A’s organizational pitcher of the year throws in the low 90’s and will likely start the year in A+ Stockton.

4. Brett Anderson (SP/LHP) – Another scrub from the Haren trade.  He’s been described as a left-handed Trevor Cahill and some people think his ceiling could be Mark Mulder.  He’ll likely start the year in Stockton’s rotation.

5. Landon Powell (C) – I wanted to write more about Powell, but I tore my ACL while typing this and had to stop.

6. Javier Herrera (CF) – The poster boy for the A’s injury plagued minor league system.  If he could stop injuring himself he would be the A’s center fielder by ’09 and has the tools to be an All Star.

7. Corey Brown (OF) – He had the most home runs in short season Vancouver since Dan Johnson.  Let’s hope that’s not a sign of things to come.

8. Chris Carter (DH) – Man, these "Danny Haren" prospects keep infesting my top 21.  You’d almost think this might have been a good trade.  Carter has the best power bat in the A’s system but he profiles as a future DH.

9. Henry Rodriguez (SP/RHP) – He’s surpassed Craig Italiano as the best power arm in the system.  His control issues keep him from being on the same developmental level as Cahill and Anderson, but he should start in A+ Stockton anyway (I’m really starting to like this rotation.)

10. Greg Smith (SP/LHP) – Soft tossing scrub from the Haren trade who’s known for his intelligent pitching tactics.  He could top out anywhere from Lenny DiNardo to Jamie Moyer.

11. Vince Mazzaro (SP/RHP) – The only pitcher of the "little three" who managed to stay healthy last year.  He has the stuff to be good if he can fix some control problems.

12. Sam Demel (RP/RHP) – The top relief prospect on this list throws in the low 90s and has the stuff to be a future closer.

13. Jared Lansford (SP/RHP) – The son of A’s third baseman (and Giants hitting coach) Carney Lansford, went from pitching shut outs in 2006 to detaching a muscle from a bone in his chest and sitting out 2007.  Could start in A+ Stockton.

14. Sean Doolittle (1B) – Could be a future gold glover at first.  The biggest knock on him was his lack of power for a first baseman, but after some adjustments to his stroke he showed more power in the instructional league.

15. Craig Italiano (SP/RHP) – This 97 mile-an-hour right hander lost his 2007 season to a concussion after trying to catch a come-backer with his head.

16. Jerry Belvins (RP/RHP) – Pitched well for team USA this year.  He is a candidate to start the year in the A’s bullpen.

17. James Simmons (SP/RHP) – He has the best control of any pitcher in the A’s system, but the development of some plus off speed pitches will be the difference between developing into Joe Blanton or Jason Windsor.

18. Mike Mitchell (RP/RHP) – Would have started 2007 in the A’s bullpen if it wasn’t for a season ending injury.

19. Arnold Leon (SP/RHP) – Signed by the A’s for six figures in the Mexican League.  He’ll likely join a crowded but good rotation in A+ Stockton this year.

20. Jermaine Mitchell (OF) – He’s the best 5-tool outfielder the A’s have this side of Javier Herrera.  Will finally escaping from the hitter’s purgatory that is Vancouver and Kane County help his bat?

21. J.D. Pruitt (OF) – He broke all sorts of records for OBP (and being hit by pitches) in Vancouver last year.  He had two really good months in June and August where he posted a 1.055 and .895 ops, and two bad months in July and September where he posted a .605 and .222 ops.  Despite the inconsistent play he still ended the year with a .460obp.