2008 Not dead IF.........
by Swishdball
on Dec 20, 2007 3:50 PM PST
23 comments
There are many reasons to think that the A's are going nowhere fast in 2008. However, I believe a change in philosophy that will allow the A's young, fresh legs to go out and steal bases and create havoc on the basepaths for opposing pitchers will ultimately lead to more runs than the way business has been run during the Beane era. Because expectations are low, and fans will understand losing, why not unleash the dogs and see what happens? We have young players with above average speed, guys like Buck, Crosby, and Swisher who if given the chance could steal 20 bags next year. Anything that could create offensive help for this team should be welcomed, and I for one would rather go down trying new ideas, than go down sticking to business as usual. Unleash the fury, and who knows, this team could surprise a lot of people in 2008.
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Just because they are rebuilding
Doesn't mean they are going to change their philosophy about stealing. Beane thinks it isn't worth the risk.
by micdog2001 on
Dec 20, 2007 3:42 PM PST
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i also don't think Crosby
Should be attempting steals. I can just see him getting stepped on and breaking his hand or foot on Opening Day.
by micdog2001 on
Dec 20, 2007 3:43 PM PST
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You say this like it's a bad thing
Hm, my new position is that Crosby should be stealing on every one of the (rare) occasions he reaches base!
by PaulThomas on
Dec 20, 2007 4:15 PM PST
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Swisher? Above average speed? Pshaw!
That one's a laugher. His single-season high of stolen bases in eight years of collegiate and professional baseball is 5. And as a professional, he has a total of 13 stolen bases. Swish is NOT, I repeat NOT a base stealing threat.
Crosby's got good speed, true enough. But let's wait a couple of years. Why try to train these relatively un-athletic players how to steal bases on the fly when the organization has much faster, better all around athletes in the minors that ARE in fact stealing bases.
Just wait until 2009 or 2010 and when the team gets good ahead. I guarantee speed will be a big part of those teams.
by Taj Adib on
Dec 20, 2007 4:58 PM PST
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Not really sure who you're referencing here
Gonzalez, Mitchell, Cunningham, Corey Brown all have decent speed but aren't really base-stealing forces; I view them as being similar to Crosby in baserunning ability. Same with Denorfia. Buck had more triples than steals last year, which is a really weird statistic. Chavez isn't likely to steal much after all the surgeries.
The 2010 A's might have 5 guys with 10 steals each, but I doubt they'll have anybody with 30.
by PaulThomas on
Dec 20, 2007 5:15 PM PST
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Pennington, Sellers, Richard
Part of the reason Beane drafted Pennington with his 1st rounder in 2005 was because of his speed. In fact, it's really the only tool that Cliff's delivered thus far in his mostly disastrous minor league career (stealing 17 bases and only getting caught 4 times last season)...he just doesn't get on base enough to really exploit it. Ditto for Sellers.
Then there's Michael Richard, an 11th rounder from this season's draft that is an absolute burner on the basepaths, stealing over 40 bases per season in college and 25 in 61 games for Vancouver this past season. The guy has good strike zone judgment and could be a sparkplug-leadoff type in the future or just a pinch runner.
Also, the A's took a flyer on Gary Brown, who was considered the fastest high schooler in the draft, although he opted to go to Fullerton instead of sign. I could very easily see the A's re-draft him in a few seasons when he becomes eligible.
My point is, Beane's obviously putting more emphasis on speed throughout the system. It's just a matter of time before one of these speedsters puts it all together and is able to add a speed element to the big club. I agree with you that the chances of any player (currently in the system) stealing 30 bases in the Show is very remote, but it's not out of the question that one could steal 15-20 regularly.
by Taj Adib on
Dec 20, 2007 5:44 PM PST
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Richard looks promising actually
No power, but if he can play quality D at shortstop and get on base at a decent clip...
Reggie Willits would be a really good player if he was a shortstop instead of an outfielder, so if this guy could turn into "Reggie-Willits-at-short," he might turn out to be a steal (so to speak).
by PaulThomas on
Dec 20, 2007 6:06 PM PST
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That's the question with Richard...
in that he's limited defensively. Early reports indicated that he was a poor shortstop, booting routine grounders and showing wildness with his throws. There was talk about moving him to center field, where his plus speed and decent instincts might play, but not sure if that conversion is in fact going to take place.
Maybe he could be moved to 2nd?
Yeah, I'm actually a big fan of Reggie Willits, as much as I hate the Angels. That team totally under appreciates his ability to control the strike zone and collect walks. He actually plays a pretty good center field, so he might actually be a good fit for the current Oakland team. With the six outfielders on the Angel roster, you'd think that he's be available...?
I'm actually really hoping the A's re-draft Gary Brown in a few years. He's a true speed burner and is definitely athletic enough to handle center field for many, many years.
by Taj Adib on
Dec 20, 2007 6:38 PM PST
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Damn
Center field isn't nearly as useful to the team. SS and 3B are the real areas of weakness.
I mean, he could be a pinch-runner for a playoff roster, but that's not really worth a whole lot.
by PaulThomas on
Dec 20, 2007 11:03 PM PST
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I agree about Swisher's speed...
but when it comes to "threat indicators," can we really put a lot of stock in total number of stolen bases (as a pro) from players who've spent the majority or entirety of their careers in the A's system? (I mean recently... not Rickey...)
by Poppy on
Dec 20, 2007 5:19 PM PST
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I don't think the system is anti-steal
just the MLB club. It's not like it costs the MLB team wins if some guys get thrown out in AAA...
Now, the A's do also tend to draft guys without a lot of regard for speed, but when they do happen to get a rabbit, I doubt they try to train him not to run. Jermaine Mitchell had 32 steal attempts last season.
by PaulThomas on
Dec 20, 2007 5:32 PM PST
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D'oh!
Misuse (mine) of the word "system". I was thinking in terms of philosophy/practices of the Oakland A's (MLB), didn't mean to include the entire organization.
by Poppy on
Dec 20, 2007 5:55 PM PST
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Bwahahahahahahaha!
The A's! Stealing bases! Bwahahahahahahaha!
Excuse me while I pick up my insides.
by JediLeroy on
Dec 20, 2007 5:22 PM PST
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would you like a fecal transplant before you do?
by monkeyball on
Dec 21, 2007 10:27 AM PST
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Stealing Bases?
Wait a second... What league are we in again? Haha lets see if we can play small ball against the AL mashers like the Tigers and Red Sox. If we can push across 4 runs we will only lose by 7 runs!!! Haha we don't steal bases in the AL. We hit the ball over the fence so we can just trot around them.
by smartkidfromcarmel on
Dec 20, 2007 7:32 PM PST
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The A's will start stealing,
when Beane is no longer a part of the organization.
by Helloooo 1st on
Dec 20, 2007 8:11 PM PST
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since the A's won't contend in '08, they should
... relax the organizational strictures against wearing clown makeup during games, juggling chainsaws in the dugout, and baiting wolverines in the outfield.
by monkeyball on
Dec 21, 2007 10:29 AM PST
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juggling chainsaws
are you using the word saw in a figurative sense?
by xbhaskarx on
Dec 21, 2007 1:07 PM PST
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My father juggled chainsaws with Paul Bunyan
by monkeyball on
Dec 21, 2007 5:04 PM PST
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I think the 'end' of the steroid era
will have great effects on moneyball and the A's organization.
First of all, I think we'll start to see a move down in Age and start seeing people peak in their careers earlier than they have been. For example good to age 32 instead of good to age 35, 36, etc.
- I also think there will be a greater premium on speed than there has been.
- the A's belief that players "develop power" now seems like a belief that they would "roid" so maybe Daric Barton becomes a Bill Buckner type, 30 doubles, 15 home runs, and a lot of hits, instead of a 30 home run guy.
4th, a lot of the good defensive catchers seemed to use steroids.
Hell, the guy Beane is saying was one of the biggest influences on him, Lenny Dykstra, was a roider.
Finally, I think the use of "quotations" is "undervalued".
I'd love to trade Kotsay and Chavez to the Angels for Reggie Willits.
by connie mack on
Dec 21, 2007 5:14 PM PST
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Reggie Willits being an excellent third baseman,
obviously...
by PaulThomas on
Dec 21, 2007 5:30 PM PST
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Why do people
continue to assume that only sluggers use performance enhancing substances? And that only "power", ie HRs, slugging, is improved by the use of performance enhancing substances?
Last a checked a huge host a olympic sprinters have tested positive for various performance enhancing substances. Last I checked a huge host of long distance cyclists have been implicated in the use of performance enhancing substances.
by rfloh on
Dec 22, 2007 11:17 AM PST
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