10 Reasons to Remain Optimistic if You're an A's Fan
by sarchasmic on Dec 16, 2007 11:37 AM PST
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PrintThis week on AN, there's been a lot of wailing and gnashing of teeth. And it's understandable. Even though it's an old, old story, when you're an A's fan, seeing your best talents go to richer teams hurts each time. Reggie and Catfish, Rickey, McGwire, Giambi, Tejada, the Big Three, and now Haren. When it comes to wounds that don't heal, Oakland has it all over say, the Cubs and their Billy Goat Curse (much less the spoiled ilk in Boston). Unlike them, when we say, "Wait 'til next year!" we usually have reason to believe.
Now the cries on AN are "Wait til 2010, or maybe 11. Or maybe even longer."
3 years is a long time to wait. Especially in a division with smug fans to the south, fans of a team that actually signs free agents to the southeast, and those...those...okay, I don't have anything against Mariner fans.
However, there are reasons to be optimistic about being a fan of the green and gold. Ten of em, actually. In no particular order, they are...
10. No Bonds moral dilemma and the accompanying in-fighting. Sure, any honest Oakland fan will admit that we have no claim to moral superiority based on the history of our players, but we don't have to keep on digging ourselves into that hole. Watch the accompanying (and inevitable) defenses of Bonds from his fans across the bay to see my point. "Sure he's an unapproachable, unfriendly, self-absorbed clubhouse cancer who may or may not have injected himself with roids, but..." After a certain point, the rationalizing gets old, and with Bonds that point fossilized a long time ago. Which segues into...
9. Our clubhouse has a high cuddliness/likability factor. Okay, it helps when they win, but seriously, guys. When your favorite team has likable players who play well, treat their fans well, and have major charisma, it becomes a lot easier to hook significant others into the game. My wife was raised bleeding Cubby blue and grew up watching Michael Jordan sky from the free throw line on a regular basis. Now she cheers for green and gold and has joined the We Believe crowd for that team at Oracle Arena. I credit Nick Swisher and Baron Davis, respectively. And while I've never met one of my favorite players, it's easier to root for them when I don't have to get past a bunch of strikes on their part.
8. Our GM knows that rebuilding is supposed to end at some point. When you rebuild, you need to have a plan as to how to get out of rebuilding into kicking divisional ass. Not just some, "Oh...we'll put a little spackle on this part, hope that that part magically hits a career year at age 36, hope that those veterans don't start to decline, and we'll be in the World Series before you know it!" Rebuilding involves taking hard, unvarnished looks at your own team, and realizing that maybe those magic beans are really just Crayola stubs. Now that I've mixed a ton of metaphors, let me point out...
7. Our GM knows how to rebuild. Yeah, he's made mistakes, and no, he ain't God. But that run of winning seasons from 1999 to 2006? That was pretty impressive. 8 seasons isn't a fluke; it's a consistent track record. And he's made over a far worse club than this. Don't believe me? Well, let me point you to...
6. 1997, his first year as GM. Think Kotsay's a bad option in center? Want Crosby given away to the Mexican League? Remember who manned those positions back then? Damon Mashore and Rafael Bournigal. Other luminaries in that lineup included Brent Mayne and some dude named Scott Brosius who, beloved as he may be among certain east coast fans, posted a .576 OPS in 479 ABs that year! Five. Seven. Six. Oh, and let's not speak of the pitching.
5. Actually, let's speak of it after all. Not thrilled with Harden/Blanton/Gaudin/whatever's left of Duke's arm, and the rest? The two leaders in innings pitched that season were Steve Karsay and Ariel Prieto. Karsay went on to have a decent career out of the pen for other teams, while Prieto continued on to take his place in the Great Drafting Busts list. They logged 132 and 125 innings pitched, respectively, for a combined record of 9-20. Okay, you say, but if King Richard logs even 100 inning this season it will be a miracle, and the odds of Blanton even being on the spring training roster look slimmer than anything on his diet by a long shot. However...
4. The line between rebuilding and reloading is a lot slimmer than one might think. See, for teams with bad management, "rebuilding" is a code word for "excuse." Being a fan of the aforementioned Warriors, I will demonstrate. "The reason we drafted Adonal Foyle over Tracy McGrady was because our intent was to contend immediately rather than prolong the rebuilding process." In other words, your ass made a mistake, but oops, you're still rebuilding, so please stand by while we work on some technical difficulties. However, a skilled general manager will minimize that downtime while maximizing the contention time. And, despite what certain teams might have you believe, it doesn't have to take six years. If you're good and lucky, like the Braves, you can keep the contention period up almost indefinitely. If you're good with average or even poor luck (and by luck, I'm referring to the draft, which as far as I can see is 5% science, 25% art, and 70% hindsight), you go through a down period of a year or three, and then you're back challenging for the AL Central title.
3. Watching younger players develop into something is one of the joys of the game. It's like spring training, where everybody starts off in first place. You don't know what the future holds, but you can't wait to see how it's going to unfold. Will Daric Barton be the second coming of Wade Boggs? Or is he more like Doug Jennings? Yes, there's a lot of uncertainty to it, disappointment, whether it be from failed expectations, or the pain of watching yet another young star depart for richer pastures. But I maintain that seeing young players develop is a lot more interesting than watching hired guns attempt to live up to their free agent salaries.
2. Our blog base is still untouchable. When you've lived in several different time zones, you get a better feel for what to appreciate. East Coast media bias? Definitely real. You think they don't care about West Coast sports? Duh. I'm currently in snow-drenched Illinois, and what does the news headline on Yahoo tell me? "Storm wallops Northeast." They don't even care that the snowfront covered an area that dwarfs New England, but let a few flakes dot the field before the Patriots game and they're all, "The Northeast is a disaster zone!" Babies.
Where was I? Oh yeah. Regionalism. And where Oakland fans are concerned, I mean this in a good way. Try looking up the blogs and game threads for a lot of other teams, and you'll find this to be one of the most active, diverse, and articulate blogs out there. Bar none. Great mods, intelligent posters, and a usually very friendly fan community makes this place a pleasure to browse. Kudos to each of you. Pat yourself on the back, because you guys rock.
1. We're not Giants fans. Yeah, an easy target. But see reasons 10 through 2 above. It's kinda obvious.
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Many underestimate the depth of this team. In years past it was easy to look at the BIg3 as the hallmark of this staff. All our starters have to do is get to the pen with the game in check and we'll remain competitive.
Your appreciation of past players such as Jennings, Prieto et. al. truly help to maintain a perspective that all is not lost on this season. If Beane smells that we are in the hunt come July, he'll do what it atakes to make this season, "special".
good stuff
but what about signing bonds for like $4 million? ok i'll stop.
Sign bonds with an extra lawyer on his fed case
Or three from Jacoby and Meyers
by oaklandSMASH on Dec 18, 2007 9:26 PM PST up reply actions
To me
This team may win anywhere from 60-85 games depending on best and worst case scenarios. If Harden is magically cured, same with Duke, Chavvy mashes, and all that other stuff comes true then we can surprise people. If what we expect to happen happens then we're screwed but then we can enjoy watching guys like Barton, Buck, Gonzalez, and possible Simmons enjoy the major leagues. I'm still pumped regardless.
Thats one of the things
I like least about the coliseum is the trough's. I always gotta wait till I have to go hella bad before I wedge into those bad boys
when they finally implode the Coliseum ...
... I am buyin' me one o' those to install in Casa Monkeyball.
Scene: A Bay Area apartment. A knock on the door
monkeyball: [not opening the door] Yes?
Voice: (mumbling) Mr. Mnkburgerhhh?
monkeyball: What?
Voice: (mumbling) Mr. Mohankeyburrrr?
monkeyball: Who is it?
Voice: [pause] Flowers.
monkeyball: Flowers for whom?
Voice: [long pause] Plumber, sir.
monkeyball: I don't need a plumber. You're that clever urinal trough shark, aren't you?
Voice: [pause] Candygram.
monkeyball: Candygram, my foot. Get out of here before I call the police. You're the urinal trough shark, and you know it.
Voice: I'm only a dolphin, sir.
monkeyball: A dolphin? Well...okay. [opens door]
[Huge latex and foam-rubber urinal trough shark head lunges through open door, chomps down on monkeyball's head, and drags him out of the apartment, all while Celebration is playing.]
by FreeSeatUpgrade on Dec 16, 2007 9:28 PM PST up reply actions
I really enjoyed this diary, and agree with most
everything you pointed out. Well done.
And I'm personally of the opinion that the team may well do better in 2008 than we all suspect at this point- because anything can happen, and because when you get enough motivated, enthusiastic, energetic young players together who are trying to prove themselves and don't know they're supposed to lose... well, yeah- anything can happen!
And I'm also of the opinion that even if 2008 ain't pretty, by 2009 the A's will be very much back in position to seriously contend, or be considered a contender right out the gates.
A lot of it will have to do with luck, a lot will have to do with smart decision-making by the front office, and more than ever will have to do with the coaching at the AA, AAA, and big league level too.
I think it will actually be highly enjoyable and interesting to watch, and it's a damn sight better than watching the roster that couldn't stay on the field last season try to limp to the finish line again this coming season with a little extra duct tape or whatever slapped on along with twenty billion "Hail Marys" whispered from the front office to the training room.
by still bills kingdom on Dec 16, 2007 12:52 PM PST reply actions
Optimism
How about this: We would have been a lot more pissed about Gaudin getting hurt if not for the trade.
oh, it would have been worse than that
If we'd still been counting on contending, there would have been recriminations of Gaudin, recriminations of the training staff, excuses about bad luck, and allegations of Gaudin having done something to increase his muscle mass beyond a point where his tendons could support it.
But, y'know, we're not, so we won't see any of that.
My main source of 2008 optimism:
The joys of last year came in the form of Cust, Gaudin, Hannahan, Buck, Barton and Andrew Brown for me. Its not just seeing the potential, its seeing the value emerge from nothing.
This season our rotation will likely begin with Eveland, Harden, Duke, Meyer, and another one of our struggling young guns. Had we gone out and competed those guys would have been forced to remain cast aside as they are in their present state -- extremely limited value. Our record might suck, but I remain one of Dan Meyer's largest supporters, so I am excited that 2008 will be a year for him, as well as guys like him, to prove themselves.
We know Beane has a knack for plucking these guys out of the woodwork, in fact its probably Beane's best talent. So, lets stack the deck for '09-'10 with minor leaguers and in the meantime lets see if we can find cheap talent at the major league level like another Gaudin or Cust.
With enough minor league talent and all the big contracts off of the books, we could easily be in a great position to sign a front-end superstar or two at the positions that won't be ready when the minor league talent starts to progress.
Trade Blanton and Street Now.
Consider Trading Swisher now...
Then depending on how things go in both the majors and minors as '08 progresses, consider whether to trade Chavy or keep him for the next run.
by SwisherSweet on Dec 16, 2007 1:11 PM PST reply actions
If I have to watch a crappy team
I would much rather watch a rebuilding team like the A's than the aged-mediocrity of the Giants.
The reason is simple: If I can't watch with the goal of seeing the team win now, I can watch individual players do well and improve for next year.
I know they will be better next year. I can watch them grow. Whereas our buddies accross the bay will watch aged veterans, knowing that they will get worse as time goes on, not better, with the exception of Cain, Lincecum and Sanchez. And knowing Sabean, he will soon trade them for Richie Sexson.
Free Agent/ Blockbuster Trade
Plus, once you have that team of cheap young talent at every position, THEN you can go out and get that impact player through free agency or a trade to push you over the edge. Impact players do you no good if you are like the current A's with reliable MLB regulars at less then half your positions.
I think the bay area sports franchise that all others need to look to emulate is the Sharks. Before they went out and got Joe Thornton they had solid player at almost every position. They they (quite cheaply) got themselves a superstar and it made everyone better pushing them to elite status. They also draft well, build from within, never let their player his the FA market, and only use overpriced free agents as a last resort to fill minor holes in the team.
by Threepwood XX on Dec 16, 2007 1:40 PM PST up reply actions
Thats exactly what the Diamondbacks did with us
They had solid guys at many differnet positions, and unlike the Angels, they decided that instead of waiting, they would use their minor league depth, all of whom were blocked anyways, to make the big club better with out really safraficing the future. After all, the players they dealt would not have made the club, probably not even in the future, because other players with low service time and high upside already filled those positions.
That is why everyone loves the trade for the D'Backs. Time will tell if we got something out of it.
interesting comparison with the Angels
For all the gnashing of teeth the last 2-3 years about all the talent in their pipeline, none of them have really panned out yet.
(Which, of course, is the big risk that Beane took with this trade.)
I agree.
I was thinking the same thing when I wrote it, but I figure the Sharks were a better example since they are local.
The A's problem is they didn't draft well--whether it be from lack of scouting, not willing to pay for a good international talent infrastructure, or a refusal to pay large bonuses--and combined with injuries and the 2005 switch from quick maturing college talent to slow developing high school talent, it came back to bite them in the rear. Even if everyone was healthy, I still don't see them as having the talent to be ready for an impact player deal.
Hopefully, in three years, we'll be the ones trading for another team's impact player (like we did to a degree in '06 for Bradley).
by Threepwood XX on Dec 16, 2007 2:05 PM PST up reply actions
Agree with a lot of this including Beane taking
a pass on high Draft Picks.
I assumed it is the high bonuses being paid and the risks that the player is more likely NOT to join MLB as a regular with the payoff that you get 6 years of contract control.
Nada Mas.
Without going overboard on individual bonuses we actually threw out $10+ million on prospects.
This gave me pause and I saw that larger bonuses for fewer players were commonplace and as a reasonable source of underpriced talent the Draft had outlived it's usefullness.
Being an A's fan this revelation and the belief that bonuses would continue to rise due to airhead owners, GMs and Borass type agents. I tried to secound guess Beane's next new economy, his next source of undervalued players. All sports are now plagued like this; $60 million for a QB that never played an NFL minute? Ridiculus.
Re: Undervalued Players Sources:
- Other teams draft picks (Bonus already paid)
- Late rounds. Players that slip down for some percieved real or exagerated flaw that makes a large bonus reckless.
- Rule 5. RFer Goleski, Marshall. There are guys that can go directly onto the 25-man roster and play frequently.
- Position conversions. SS to CF, RP to SP, SS to 3B, ...I don't like this one at all: DH to 1B or...
- Cross this source off: Japan.
- DFA'd players
- Retired players.
- Players that can NOT play everyday. If Chavez, Kotsay, Harden or others in similar shape were to seek new contracts this year. (See one year of Frank, Sammy Stewart, etc. ). Piazza was horrible.
- Free Agents. Lesser FAs tend to be deals if coming off a poor season and revert to the mean indicates improvement can be expected.
The thing is, why even support a minor leagues system if you can do better with that money elsewhere?
I think the Players/Union better re-evaluate or the minors will be down-sizing sooner than later.
by A s Eh on Dec 16, 2007 8:31 PM PST up reply actions
I miss 1999/2000 ...
it was like being with the Warriors these last couple of seasons. The energy, the magic ... it was beautiful. We had no expectations so everything that went right was a bonus.
The last few years haven't been as much fun. We've expected to win, so, while we're still excited about winning, it's just not the same. Losing has felt worse than winning has felt good.
Here's hoping that a couple of years in the wilderness is all Beane needs to rebuild the franchise and all fans like me need to restore hope and optimism.
You know the drill
You will be fine and find plenty to appreciate.
2000 was sweet.
by A s Eh on Dec 16, 2007 8:45 PM PST up reply actions
There are different ways to rebuild
We are basically following the Florida Marlins strategy. And I for one thing its a great one, and seems to work well for them. But we are doing it for a slightly different reason than them. That is to say, instead of doing it purely for the money and trying to get down to a sub-$20 payroll like Lioria does, we are doing it because we know we can be good next year if we are healthy, but rather take a risk on that huge IF like we did last year, we're dealing our good talent for (hopefully) big returns, essentially trading in our MLB Talent for prospective MLB talent that could be better.
But its not the only strategy. I think if all the prospects bust, and we're down and out by the time Cisco Field comes along, we might just tackle another type of Rebuilding process, the one the Giants look like they will attempt to do (probably unsuccesfully), but has been done with great success.
The Detroit Tigers strategy, one that has been tried and failed by many, many teams before. They went out, signed good veterans to long term deals (with op-outs for the team in case of injury risk, see; Ordonez, Rodriguez). But the key to this strategy is to come at it not only from the Free Agent angle (which said teams try to go only from) but also combined with great drafting.
And then there is the classic Rebuild strategy, which was done by our trading partnet, the Diamondbacks. The D'backs did "it" the right way, making sure that those draft picks they chose COUNTED, and using savy trades to bring in more prospects to bolster the team. This is, unlike the Tampa Bay Devil Rays, Kansas City Royals and Pittsburgh Pirates, who usually, at least with the Royals and Pirates, waste their picks, or as with the Devil Rays, draft the same kind of players so that the system is full of 1 type of player, but none of the other aspects of the game (pitching!).
But the Devil Rays seem to finally start noticing that they can have all the prospects they want, but they still need pitching. The Royals new GM appears to be taking the Detroit Tigers rebuild route (that is why he's been offering all those big contracts), though targeting players of a... lesser starhood (and supprisingly a lot of Mariners; Meche, Guillen) where the Pirates... well, they finally got a new GM, and I still can't tell what they are going to be doing. Meanwhile, the Reds seem to be going the route that the D'Backs took, stocking up their farm system, but I am not sure if they are savy enough with the trades.
It really is amazing, recently, looking around at the state of the league. So many franchises that were completly rundown now have some hope. I just hope that as the team that did have hope, and now has sunk to the bottom from the top, can climb up faster and get back to the top before the others can.
It's cyclical
I mean, there are plenty of genuinely hopeless franchises at this point. Houston's delusional ownership continues to deal away the team's future for a gasp at contention in 2008. Baltimore is just beginning to clear out the dead wood of a series of horrible decisions. Toronto is stuck in 3rd place with no realistic hope of improving. The Giants are... well, everyone knows about them. And the White Sox? Wow. Talk about hosed.
Well, I mean is, much of the previous craptanks
such as the Pirates, Brewers, Royals, Devil Rays and Rockies all now have hope!
the pirates and royals have hope?
They have irrational, unfounded hope
Hey, it's more than the Giants have.
perhaps matt morris and jose guillen
will put them over the top...
Pirates and Royals both have new GM's
Royal's GM is from the Braves, Pirates GM from the Indians, two clubs that are not stupid.
Morris trade was before the new guy took over.
Guillen won't,
but Alex Gordon, Mike Moustakas, Billy Butler might.
Yes, the Royals do have hope
If you actually paid attention to their system.
Actually,
the Royals haven't been just targeting "lesser stars".
They basically threw money at everyone this offseason: they went after Posada, ridiculous as that might seem, they tried for Fukudome, they tried for Kuroda, they tried for Torii Hunter.
When I first started becoming an A's fan
I first watched the A's in 1980. Went to my first A's game in 1981 when BillyBall and Ricky made me a diehard. But 1982 is when I became a real fan. I sat through a team that lost 94 games, but of course I was just too damn young, stupid and having too much fun to care. Hell, I still have the team poster from that year! Yes, I know its sad.
When I think back to the A's of the early 80s (the post BillyBall and pre LaRussa days), I can honestly look at the now A's and see that they will be ok. Maybe not this year, but soon enough. If I can survive the teams of Dan Meyer at 1b, Davey Lopes at 2b, Wayne Gross at 3b and the ever loveable Chicken Stanley at ss (you think Crosby can't hit?), I know I can wait a year or two that it could take for them to be right back in contention again. And, yeah, it will be fun to see all the kids come up and grow before some other team gets them to wear that hat on their HOF plaque ;)
I know I cannot wait for the new season to start and I'll be there rooting for my team no matter who wears the uniform. I just want to be sitting in the bleachers, sun beating down on my skin with a dog and garlic fries in my lap and a soda with a layer of melted ice in it at my feet. THAT is when I'll be happy. And when I hear the starting lineup announced and that first pitch thrown, I'll start cheering and will not stop til the season ends..
Hopefully in the post season!
I went to middle school
with damon mashore's sister. She was how do I put it. BEAUTIFUL. tall, blonde and a smile that would lite up a room. I do wonder how she look today.
1 reason not to be optimistic:
Bobby Crosby
Baseball Prospectus has had to revise
its list of top A's Prospects. Here's the new list:
Five-Star Prospects
- Daric Barton, 1B
- Carlos Gonzalez, OF
Four-Star Prospects
- Brett Anderson, LHP
- Trevor Cahill, RHP
Three-Star Prospects
- Chris Carter, 1B
- James Simmons, RHP
- Aaron Cunningham, OF
- Henry Rodriguez, RHP
- Andrew Bailey, RHP
- Corey Brown, OF
- Jermaine Mitchell, OF
They put Smith at #13, below Herrera but ahead of Blevins. Eveland is ineligible due to his appearances in MLB for the past three years. (BP also had some unkind words for him.)
Unkind ... not necessarily critical
when it comes to his value to the team.
Dana Eveland is no longer eligible for prospect rankings, though he's seemingly always eligible for a seat at the buffet table; when you're David Wells, being fat is kind of cool, but when you're 25 and have yet to establish yourself in the big leagues, it's kind of annoying.
Still think Leon should be on this list
The guy's basically pitching at AA level at age 18. Even if he's "only" a reliever, he's the closest thing in the system to "the next Street." I'd give him at least 3 stars.
You must hate Jack Cust...
And while I've never met one of my favorite players, it's easier to root for them when I don't have to get past a bunch of strikes on their part.
Yes.
Enough with the dire predictions and five year plans and 2011 lineup projections.
I can't take it anymore.
Half the site is devoted to devising the perfect Blanton trade, the other half is feverishly cutting and pasting BA scouting reports, comments aren't loading right in Firefox, grover is raging about supply and demand, IM4Oakgal is turning to the bottle ... frankly, considering the looming holiday crunch and the inadvisably high volume of coffee I've ingested today, I'm in no shape to cope with this sort of chaos.
And if monkeyball can cite Randy Bell's joke account's joke account in the lead-in to a front page piece, I can defiantly don the blinders of irrational positivity.
The rotation is going to be fine. Better than fine. Meyer will fully recover his former stuff, Gaudin will ride his brand spanking new hip labrum to a breakout year, Braden will straighten his cap, crease the bill, and unveil an unhittable Bugs Bunny screwball that puts him on another level entirely, Duchscherer will make a seamless, pain-free transition to starting, and Harden will throw 250 innings, win the Cy Young, and log on to AN under the screen name RubberArm to mercilessly taunt all his naysayers after every win.
And that's really just the beginning. I didn't mention Blanton, because he'll be traded to Seattle for Adam Jones, who will promptly displace the Kotsay/Denorfria tandem in CF, hit 300/400/600, set insane unbreakable records in every possible defensive metric, and donate 80% of his salary to charity. Chavez will discover some sort of ancient herbal therapy while Christmas shopping on eBay, resulting in a complete and immediate eradication of all his ailments. Swisher will have a career year. Buck will improve. Barton will have the ROY trophy sewn up by June 15th. Crosby will hit .250. Suzuki's plucky, enthusiastic aura will permeate the Coliseum complex, washing over fans like a cleansing waterfall of all-around goodness as they pull into the parking lot or clamber over the BART bridge. Geren's brilliant in-game tactical maneuvering will leave the rest of the AL managerial community flummoxed, confused, and emotionally decimated.
Following a 112 win season that none of the so-called experts predicted, the A's will dominate the wild card Yankees in the ALDS, toy with the Red Sox in the ALCS, and (reluctantly) beat Danny Haren twice en route to their first World Series title in nearly 20 years. AN will bask in the awesomeness of it all. Gratuitous capitalization will abound. Every comment will be followed by twenty-seven exclamation points. Zonis will excitedly list out the clinching lineup multiple times. Someone will start a Mychal Urban appreciation thread. Good spirits will reign.
There. I feel better now.
ouch
"Crosby will hit .250"
I mean, really. Ouch.
lol, good stuff
I'm with everyone else
Awesome post and you had me until you mentioned Crosby would hit .250. Just a tad optimistic aren't we?
Excellent stuff
Someone will start a Mychal Urban appreciation thread.
It'll be mykeA ... book it.
by green star oakland on Dec 17, 2007 8:02 AM PST up reply actions
I think I am going to print this
And read it whenever I need an A's pick me up!
Thanks!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
by BobbyCrosbysGirl on Dec 19, 2007 1:24 AM PST up reply actions
Another reason to be optimistic...
No quandry over whether to buy season tickets this year!
REASON #11--
hopefully they relocate and call themselves something great like the Yankees and actually have money to operate a legitimate team.
by bigmacattack @ Athletics Nation on Dec 17, 2007 9:51 AM PST reply actions
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