Two (unrelated) questions about the Minors

by atomopawn on Dec 10, 2007 7:28 PM PST Comment 15 comments

I really enjoy reading diaries about minor league players (both ours and other team's), so I have a couple questions for those of you who know more about this topic than I do (which doesn't take much).

Question 1:

Is there a formula for adjusting Mexican League stats for comparison with American Minor or Major league stats? I'd like to try to project how players like Javier Robles might perform at the Major League level (381/445/675 in the Mexican League).

Question 2:

There are plenty of diaries speculating on a Blanton or Haren trade, which I personally think is unlikely. Nevertheless, it's fun to think about what we might be able to pick up if we traded one or the other of them. In my opinion, a key piece we should acquire in any such trade is a middle infield prospect with some pop and speed. As much as I liked Scutaro, he and Crosby simply haven't been very exciting to watch and haven't been putting up very good numbers.

Now there are some minor league teams with some very good talent in this area. Out here in the east, for instance, the Richmond Braves have Brent Lillibridge who is absolutely awesome, but I doubt the Braves would let him go. Here's my question: What kind of middle infield talent is out there that we can probably acquire and what other players might be included in the package to make it worth our while?

Thanks!

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two (unrelated) answers about the minors

Every state but Utah and Kentucky

Beer, cigarettes, fireworks, and permanent markers with >1" tips

I'm even surer that you're wrong. @('.')@

by monkeyball on Dec 10, 2007 7:41 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

Mexican League stats

I'm not sure if the Mexican League is considered a hitter friendly league or a pitcher friendly league but it's often been said that the competition level is equivlant to AAA.

Yep. Warm and fuzzy... that's me.

by grover on Dec 10, 2007 7:44 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

The Mexican League

Is extremely favorable to hitters, if I remember correctly.

The example that sticks out in my mind is when Erubiel Durazo hit something like .380/.500/.600 there a season or two ago.

RagingHarden: Yeah if you get 20 starts out of me I'll be shocked. Like, I'll wreck my drawers.

by walk off bunt on Dec 10, 2007 9:23 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

Even Chavez's stats

aren't Mexican enough.

by green star oakland on Dec 10, 2007 9:33 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

I assume ... he's asking about the Mexican minor

league ... which happens in the summer, not the Mexican Winter League, which Erubiel Durazo has proven able to tear up ...

"It's for your own good. Big strong Devo knows whats best for Poppy" -- Mossback

by devo on Dec 10, 2007 9:56 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Oh whoops

Thanks for the clarification.

RagingHarden: Yeah if you get 20 starts out of me I'll be shocked. Like, I'll wreck my drawers.

by walk off bunt on Dec 10, 2007 10:26 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

I too have seen the AAA comparison

The league is also friendly to hitters, but not to any extreme that can't be seen in the minor leagues. It's overall offense numbers are comparable to those of the PCL.

Julio Franco had a line of .437/.497/.698 in 2001 before coming back to the majors.

by pinkfloyd on Dec 10, 2007 10:06 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

Hmm

I don't really believe it can be that high-level.

Or to rephrase that slightly, if the league is AAA level (and hitter-friendly at that), then every prospect-watcher out there is missing the #1 or #2 prospect in the entire system, because Arnold Leon (purchased from his M-league club a month or so ago) posted something like a 2.00 ERA at age 19 there last season.

I would love for that to be the case, but it seems a tad optimistic. Leon sounds like a good prospect, but he's not going to set the bullpen on fire by May of next season.

cardinalprecepts.blogspot.com

by PaulThomas on Dec 10, 2007 10:21 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

Joakim Soria tore up the Mexican League in 06

KC picked him up in the Rule 5 draft and he ended up closing for them by the end of 2007.

And yes, the A's passed him up to pick Goleski.

Yep. Warm and fuzzy... that's me.

by grover on Dec 10, 2007 10:26 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Meant to add a link for Soria

Here go.

Yep. Warm and fuzzy... that's me.

by grover on Dec 10, 2007 10:27 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Well, maybe the club learned from the experience

I guess it's something (or someone) to root for, if nothing else.

cardinalprecepts.blogspot.com

by PaulThomas on Dec 10, 2007 11:46 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Realized I should probably post the MILB link

because they have him listed as "Alex" Leon (I think it's like J. Edgar Hoover, he goes by his middle name). Confusing.

Link.

cardinalprecepts.blogspot.com

by PaulThomas on Dec 10, 2007 11:48 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Baseball Prospectus translates the Mexican League

If you go to their minor league page, you can find translations for every league. Each league has a page for actual raw stats, translated stats (MLEs, with a .270/.330/.420 or 4.50 ERA average), and future peak stats (based just on this year's stats, how good will this guy be at his best).

Here's what the have for Javier Robles:

Actual: .340/.417/.525
Translated: .273/.343/.441
Peak: .273.343/.441 (He's 38, so it's only downhill from here)

Prospectus also rated him as the third worst baserunner in the minor leagues last year, at 9 runs below average.

Ah, it looks like you were referencing the Mexican Pacific League. Prospectus wrote an article about its level of play back in 2004. They gave it an equivalence of 83.7% of MLB. For reference, that's somewhere between AA (79%-80%) and AAA (85%-87%).

by Danny on Dec 12, 2007 12:31 AM PST reply actions 0 recs

Wish I knew what all of this stuff meant

but if I'm reading it close to correctly, the A's bagged the single best pitching prospect in the entire league. He's projected to have a peak season of something like 50 IP, 2.50 ERA out of the bullpen-- basically a closer-quality reliever. And given how crazy young he is, he could get even better than that. Not to mention that large "stuff" modifier...

Woohoo!

The MPL is a winter league, though. The plain old "Mexican league" is the summertime league we were referencing. Leon's held up fine in winter ball, too-- his ERA is up but it's almost entirely because of a higher BABIP.

cardinalprecepts.blogspot.com

by PaulThomas on Dec 12, 2007 10:55 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs