Trade for Tejada?
by niallmack on Nov 8, 2007 11:09 AM PST
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PrintWhat a good PR move that would be. There have been rumors around for a while now that Tejada is available. He has 2 years left on his contract for 13 million a year.
The real questions are how much would it take to get him and how good will he defense be over the rest of his contract?
How much will it take to get him?
There have been reports that the Orioles are
MacPhail said the Orioles want to rebuild their talent base in all areas, suggesting they would want multiple players in any deal. They need pitching and have an obvious hole in center field, where Melky Cabrera would fit.
The Orioles also need a closer because of injuries to Chris Ray and Danys Báez and are interested in Kyle Farnsworth, who was developed by the Chicago Cubs when MacPhail and Manager Dave Trembley worked there.
I think Tejada might be available for Huston Street, somebody similar to Jason Windsor, and an infielder (Crosby, Scutaro or Petit).
Will he play good enough defense?
First off he is a good hitter for a SS so even if he is a little below average defensively it will be good fit (especially with above average at 3B assuming Chavez is there and 2B).
I don't really trust defensive stats but the consensus seems to be that he still has a very good arm but is losing range, he always seemed to be good fundamentally. At 31 years old he might be better off at 3B.
This could be the right handed bat the A's need at a realistic price. How good does this lineup look?
LF Buck
1B Barton
SS Tejada
DH Cust
RF Swisher
3B Chavez
2B Ellis
CF Denorfia / Kotsay
C Suzuki
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If they want Farnsworth,
that means the Yankees will be getting Tejada.
I just can't figure out why they want Farnsworth. He was practically hounded out of town in New York last year, and with fairly good reason. There's no way NY should be able to get Tejada without giving up Ian Kennedy, but it sounds like the Orioles may be moronic enough to do it.
Street >>>1 million more>>> Farnsworth.
IF they will swap Tejada for Crosby straight-up.
If not, I don't see a reason to give up anything for a guy who is past his prime. If BB adopts this philosophy he may as well sign Rickey Henderson too.
by ohtobe21likehuston on Nov 8, 2007 11:32 AM PST reply actions
Yeah, Tejada's skill level
right now is similar to Rickey's right now.
A past his prime Tejada had an OPS of 799, OPS+ of 109. That's still better than most SS in the majors. Let's not mention the SS on the A's.
Been talked about too many times to
mention. What do you foresee the A's giving up for Tejada and will it benefit the team? His contract is very affordable but Baltimore isn't going to play Judas and hand him over for 30 pieces of silver. They want more and that is where things fall apart every time someone mentions picking him up again.
by ohtobe21likehuston on Nov 8, 2007 6:00 PM PST up reply actions
Crosby would clear waivers right now.
The A's couldn't give him away if they wanted to.
I'm dead serious
Crosby is a 28-year-old major league bust who's owed over $8 million in salary for the next two seasons.
I mean, would YOU want him at that price?
Juan Uribe, Omar Vizquel.
Just got signed to contracts that are similar, from a yearly basis to Crosby's. Vizquel's contract also has a vesting option for a 2nd year.
Their numbers are similar offensively to Crosby's. Vizquel is much older. Uribe is the same age. In other words their upside is similar to, or worse than, Corsby's.
Defensively, Vizquel is better, Uribe had a horrible year all round, offensively and defensively.
The thing is,
it's totally obvious that Vizquel was signed as a sop to the fans who're going to have to watch the schlock the Giants are going to be running out there in the next few years. He's a spectacular defender; Crosby just doesn't have Vizquel's style.
Uribe? Can't explain that one. Other than to note that the man who signed the contract also seemed to think that a team with Darin Erstad and Scott Podsednik on it would actually be competitive.
Yes, Uribe was signed
The same dumbass that got Javier Vazquez at $34.5M / 3.
Regardless, let's assume Ken Williams is a dumbass. He's still a dumbass who's a GM, meaning that he might have taken Crosby if Crosby was waived.
Then apparently they should have waived him
Seriously, if I was Beane, I'd DFA Crosby tomorrow. Either some idiot takes him, or he gets outrighted to AAA where he belongs.
Technically not true
Thome was traded for Rowand, which actually worked out okay for Philly (when you factor in the emergence of Howard and Thome's declining glove) as well as Chicago. Garcia was traded for a couple young arms which could still go either way at this point. So while neither of those trades were "bad" by Williams, neither were exactly steals for Chicago -- at least not as of yet.
Forgot Rowand
The White Sox then got Gio Gonzalez back when they dumped the carcass of Chief Garcia on the Phillies.
So, about $20 million for 3 years of Thome at the cost of Aaron Rowand and the carcass of Chief Garcia.
silly, but sadly true...
injury-prone, offensively-challenged SS for $8 million/year. He would make for a very expensive defensive replacement.
by Miggy on Nov 8, 2007 2:18 PM PST up reply actions
Considering our SS and Chavez's health/avg season
I think it's foolish to NOT want Miggy back. Of course I thought it was foolish to not try and keep him...
But, let's face it, we don't have the farm system we used to and unless the O's want below average major league players like DJ, Crosby, Kotsay and DiNardo or unproven pitchers like Windsor and Braden I don't see this happening for us, sadly.
That being said, this would be a perfect time for Billy to remind me and all of baseball how much smarter he is by pulling off this trade for us.
Apparently they want below average
relief pitchers and 3rd/4th outfielders... so who knows? Never underestimate the stupidity of the Orioles front office. By which I really mean Angelos, since the GM there is basically just Angelos's press secretary.
I'd even throw in a random old AA third baseman
who has learned how to pick on pitchers 8 years his junior ...
You're far too kind
There's no way Kotsay is a 3rd outfielder at this point. Closer to a 5th outfielder.
love to have Tejada back more than anyone...
but don't see it happening unless the A's dump salary like Kotsay and Crosby. I'd prefer to trade Street for prospects or part of a larger package for a younger slugger. Miggy is clearly on the decline and that will only be exacerbated playing in Okaland instead of Camden Yards.
by Miggy on Nov 8, 2007 2:17 PM PST reply actions
Stadium proposal
Now that the A's put in a bid to Fremont should that change the focus of the team? Do we go for a full rebuild and then raise payroll once the team moves to Fremont? I guess it's hard to say whether or not the proposal will pass.
I think the opposite...
I think that we need to have a competitive team to make things go more smoothly with Fremont. From what I've read, their concerns are traffic and eco issues. It's a very hard sell to get the powers to be to build a stadium that they may not be all on board for if you have a team that is lower level/rebuilding. It would be a lot easier to sell if you had a successful squad that featured (and not limited to) a potential all-star/Cy young talk SP Haren, a ROY candidate Barton, likable faces Swisher and Ellis, young hitting core such as Suzuki and Buck, and a dominant closer in Street. I think you need to create an excitement of having a top tier, competitive team. Not to mention, if we go full strength in Japan vs. Boston and beat them (the current WS champs) we would have massive buzz.
by AsWin on Nov 8, 2007 2:46 PM PST up reply actions
I believe somewhere in between...
you need to rebuild with an eye towards Fremont. In that regard, you wouldn't trade a Street for Tejada, but you may trade him for a James Loney-type prospect. You also need to be beefign up an anemic farm system so that when the move occurs they will have trading chips in place to deal for higher-priced, proven talent. I disagree with your assertion that the team needs to be highly competitive in order for the City of Fremont to approve the application. The environmental issues are the same regardless of the team so it will come down to the City officials weighing the costs with the potential benefits (boost in economy, prestige of having a MLB team etc.). You could throw the River Cats roster out tehre for he first couple of seasons and sell out every game because of the buzz factor of having a new stadium.
by Miggy on Nov 8, 2007 3:09 PM PST up reply actions
I could see trading for Tejada
but not giving up Crosby. Keep Crosby and have Chavez (3B, 1B), Tejada (SS, 3B), Ellis (2B), Barton (1B?, DH), Swisher (1B, OF) and Crosby (SS, 2B, CF!). All of a sudden you have ML quality talent at every position, options and injury insurance. With so many health questions, there will be plenty playing time for everyone (there's a very real chance that Chavy's bat and glove will be ready before his throwing shoulder, making 1B a necessity for him). Crosby has all the tools for CF (speed, height, glove and arm) and Kotsay will need some rest.
Now, who to trade for Tejada?
Brown, Embree, Scutaro, Johnson (all will fill needs for Baltimore)
Oops, I meant Embree OR Brown ...
At least that's what I'd offer. I don't think Tejada will be hard to get - the most important aspect for the O's is to get out from under his salary.
I doubt Baltimore would make the trade
even for all 4 of those guys. Only Andrew Brown has an upside.
Crosby has all the tools for CF (speed, height, glove and arm)
Unfortunately, the last time I checked, being able to hit was also a tool required of a center fielder.
Maybe they wouldn't go for it
but some believe that DJ has an upside, and both DJ and Scutaro fill immediate needs while they develop young talent. Tejada is overpriced and in decline - we'd be providing payroll relief. If anyone gives up a ton of young talent for Tejada at this stage, it's not worth matching the offer.
We can agree to disagree, but I believe Crosby is (potentially) still worth way more than we can get for him in a trade. He's a keeper, if for no other reason than we can't trade him. Sorta like Kotsay.
How does DJ fill a need?
The Orioles already have Kevin Millar at first base, Aubrey Huff at DH and Jay Gibbons backing them up.
He's fills the need of
bone head move of the offseason that the Orioles fill every year.
maybe, maybe if
Tejada had one year left on his deal instead of two and the A's were in a position to 'go for it' by filling their one glaring hole.
Problem is, Tejada has 2 years left on that deal, and the A's have 2/3 holes.
There's also this to consider:
2008 Tejada = 2008 Jack Wilson
BB % K % BB/K AVG OBP SLG OPS ISO BABIP
7.4 % 9.6 % 0.83 .296 .350 .440 .791 .145 .308
7.4 % 10.7 % 0.75 .296 .357 .442 .799 .146 .304
The first is Wilson, the second Tejada. I know the formatting will be off, but the similarity can be seen nonetheless.
(from fangraphs)
The level of similarity is eerie
The one reason to take a flyer on Tejada regaining his old ability level is that I think he has been demoralized in Baltimore and if any place could rejuvenate him the most it would probably be Oakland. But unless you believe that enough, he's not a good trade target for the A's. If you do...Hey, he's still one of my very favorite A's of all time so I'm not a hard sell.
I agree
baseball is a mental game. Since leaving oakland Miggy has not been himself. Going to Baltimore is like going to purgatory. They are a crappy team with a stupid owner. If he were to come back to the fans who loved him he would perk up, and bring life back to a seemingly lifeless dugout. Pull the trigger if you can Billy
by billyball1981 on Nov 8, 2007 6:09 PM PST up reply actions
During his full years with the A's,
Tejada had OPS+ of 95, 111, 109, 128, and 111.
With the O's, he's had OPS+ of 131, 128, 126, and 109.
You're right that Tejada has not been himself with the Orioles. Specifically, he's been about 20% better than himself.
Fewer RBIs (aside from 2004), though ...
and he hasn't won a single MVP ...
Camden Yards Factor
I'm not a stat guy, but does the OPS+ take ballparks into consideration. There is no way he was a better ballplayer w/ the O's. What was Tejada's Away OPS+ those same years - A's & O's?
He was awesome his first year with the O's
But he was excited to be there - until he was there and found out what it's like to be there. Since then, both his stats and morale have shown steady decline. If you believe his birth certificate, which says he's still only 31, morale could have as much to do with the decline as age does.
OPS is park adjusted
and you seem not to have grasped the point here. Either he's not demoralized in Baltimore, or he hits better when he IS demoralized. (Variation of 2-3 points in OPS is not statistically significant. 2007 was the first year in which he could be said to have declined.) Neither of these are points in favor of bringing him back.
Occam's Razor, people.
OPS+
OPS measured against the league average, and adjusted for ballpark factors. An OPS+ over 100 is better than average, less than 100 is below average.
109 is still good for a shortstop, but I question whether Tejada can continue to provide league average defense at the position for 2 more seasons. that number is much less attractive at third base.
some context with other OPS+ (last 3 seasons)
Jeter 125 132 121
Young 131 108 107
Guillen 115 136 123
Tejada 128 126 109
Going forward, the money and numbers probably make him similar to Michael Young as an asset. Both will be paid about 26M for their production the next 2 seasons. Overpriced and overrated, imo. Not as badly as Jeter, but he's still a bad option.
You forgot
Crosby 111 67 68
Tejada's a substantially better defender than Jeter or Guillen. It's illogical to talk about bad defense and then compare his offense to guys who are even worse. Young is a better comparison-- and both Young and Tejada are significant positive assets at $13M a year.
I mean, seriously. If he's a bad option, what's Crosby? And who's a "good option"?
I agree
I wasn't trying to say they were overall better shortstop options. I'm fully aware of Guillen's switch to first base, but I think his bat translates better to a corner spot than Tejada. I guess it depends on whether or not you're happy with Miggy at short for the next 2 years – I'm not.
And you're right, I should have included Crosby. He's made Omar Vizquel's bat look, well, league average.
Maybe it's not a bad strategic move for the A's, but I think it's very complex with less upside than seeing what you can get from Crosby/Murphy and how Petit develops.
If you trade for Tejada, you're probably going to have to give up someone with a good future. What's comparable to Melky/Farnsworth? I don't know, but I'd rather not trade a guy like Buck. If they're dumb enough to believe in Kotsay/Crosby/plus one, sure, but I thought they were trying to shed that payroll. It's difficult to speculate trades.
I'd like to see a flat out competition between Crosby and Murphy in the spring. Hopefully Crosby shows enough to make him a trade candidate, as some team will still be left looking for a shortstop with this year's thin free agent crop.
All in all, I'd much rather procure a starting pitcher. Maybe Randy Wolf or Matt Clement.
Well, the literal closest comparison
to Melky/Farnsworth would be Denorfia/Casilla (decent-hitting, decent-fielding outfielder without much power/reliever with great stuff and control problems), but given that the former pair have been hyped up endlessly while no non-A's fan has ever heard of the latter, I doubt they'd actually accept it.
Not to be patronizing, but I don't think you've really thought through what you're saying about upside. The upside to Tejada is his 2004-2006 numbers, i.e. an OPS+ in the high 120s with decent defense at shortstop. The downside is an OPS+ around 100 with mediocre defense.
Meanwhile, as far as I can tell, the upside to the other lot is about an OPS+ of 100 with solid defense, and the downside is an OPS+ of 70 with average defense.
The 10th percentile of performance from Tejada is about equal to the 90th percentile of performance from Crosphy.
Petit's not really an issue here, as he's not going to be a factor at the big-league level before about 2010 (how convenient).
That's fair
I thought the A's could get more wins per dollar by going after another SP, but you may be right.
The two are not mutually exclusive
Another starter plus Tejada would only take the A's payroll to in the neighborhood of where it was this year or slightly above it, depending on who the starter was (I'm assuming Kenny Rogers or something along those lines-- 1 year, $5 million or thereabouts), whether Baltimore pays any of Tejada's money and whether the A's dump Crosby or Kotsay's contracts.
Unfortunately, I think Clement will definitely get a multi-year deal (which would likely be a disaster for Oakland). Wolf just isn't very good. His two good seasons were an eternity ago.
Jeter, Guillen
are generally considered the worst defensive SS in the majors. Guillen, in fact, is no longer a SS.
Young isn't as bad, but is worse than Tejada, at least according to the PBP metrics.
Tejada is considered slightly below average.
Don't forget
that Tejada had a broken hand for many weeks this last season and it took him a little bit to get back into the swing of things when he made his early return.
that's a valid point
I just think there's a better way to spend that extra 12-15M over the next 2 seasons, if it is spent at all.
The money wouldn't kill the idea for me.
Trading a talent like Street would. Street should only be traded for talent that we can use for years to come. IMO.
It's just such a logical fit
He's the guy we hoped Crosby would be, and it seems like we can trade for him with parts we already have.
Some reasons to get him
- He plays a position we could use an upgrade at.
- Health has been one of his strong points throughout his career. His presence would end one huge question about having a SS who can play everyday.
- He fits in the lineup very well.
- He's loved by the fans and would be welcome back. Remember that he wasn't even offered a contract to stay here.
- It won't take a SP to get him so our rotation stays intact.
It all depends on whether or not we think we can make the playoffs next year.
Also
Don't you think that with the new bid in for the Fremont Stadium that raising payroll for a guy like Tejada would gain support from the local fans? We're not talking about Barry Bonds here and the A's could use a little public relations boost right now.
Tejada in green and gold again? Bring it on!
There is one HUGE difference between Miguel Tejada and practically every player on the A's current roster. HE SHOWS UP TO WORK AND PLAYS! The past year's injury was the first of his career, and it is not a recurring problem like "tendinitis" or "back spasms". Tejada is historically very durable, and acquiring him again would be huge. This past season, we flushed $30 million on "proven bats" (Chavez/Piazza/Kotsay) that gave us ZERO production because they were on the DL instead of in the batter's box. Anytime there is a chance to acquire the most coveted trait in baseball (HR power/run production) at a position where it is not normally expected, you bite the bullet and make the deal. This rings doubly true for the A's, who have gotten very little power from the "traditional" sources over the last few years (the corner IF and OF spots).
The A's would have the rights to Tejada for two more years, at which time we could perhaps sign him cheaper at SS if Petit is not ready, or perhaps move him to third if Petit is ready. The fans love him, he brings excitement to the diamond, and did I mention he puts up the kind of RBI numbers year in and year out that Crosby couldn't match in AA ball? If Street is the price you must pay, then pay it. It is just a matter of time before Street breaks down anyway--his mechanics strain his arm/shoulder too much. If he was 6'5"/230, maybe he would be more durable, but he's not. Trade him while he is at the peak of his probable value. If we can pack up some dead wood like Kotsay or DJ in the deal, that would be great.
The issue of Tejada's "decline" is a relative one, because there are only two years left on the deal. I'll still take Tejada's "declining" years more than the best years of most shortstops. The A's need a righty power bat. The A's need someone at short who will actually show up at the ballpark ready to play. The money would seem to be doable. Bring Miggy Back!
While it's correct to note the value of Tejada's
durability, I think it's pretty unfair to criticize Chavez, Piazza or Kotsay for not "showing up and playing." Chavez and Kotsay were both gritting it out and playing through serious pain to try and get the team to the playoffs last year. Piazza was broken by having a large man essentially sit down on top of his shoulder.
Whatever their other failings as players, it's completely unfair to claim that those guys are/were mailing it in.
Kotsay/Chavez injuries vs. Tejada's durabitlity
I was not implying in my previous post that I felt the injured players were "mailing it in". I'm sure they were even more frustrated with their own injuries than we fans were and made every effort to be out there contributing. The distinction I wanted to make was in the TYPE of injury they were/are dealing with relative to Tejada's injury. Back problems and tendinitis (Chavez/Kotsay) do not go away--they can only be managed. A broken bone (Tejada)is an injury that athletes normally make a full, quick recovery from, with no lingering effects. My point was this: for a club with limited resources (that would be the A's), it makes more sense to deal for someone with a proven track record of durability (for instance, Tejada) than it does to acquire someone with a history of chronic, nagging injuries and/or psychological makeup issues (does Milton Bradley come to mind? I hear he's available on the FA market! We wouldn't even have to give up Ethier to get him this time...). I also find it heart-warming as a fan of small-market, underdog teams in general that the guy filling in for last year's big money acquisition (Piazza) went on to lead the team in HR's and RBI's while pulling down what was probably only a prorated share of the league minimum...
Orioles, lol
If they're giving him away, sure--and asking for Melky Cabrera and Kyle Farnsworth is giving him away. If the price of admission is a fringy outfielder and a reliever with a 10-cent head, it's worth paying. I'd give them Denorfia, Casilla, and Crosby, if they really want.
I'd be shocked if he doesn't end up with the Yankees, though. He's an ideal fit for them, because there's no way they will let Wilson Betemit play third for them. If that deal is really on the table, they're giving up nothing of value for him. Plus, they can easily afford his salary.
Yankees
I doubt that the Orioles would trade within their division for two players significantly worse than Tejada. I also doubt that they couldn't find a better deal the Farmsworth and Beat a meat.
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