I think a quickie is in order.
Fight between George Clooney and Fabio, wherein Fabio tells Clooney to "stop being a diva."
Smiling Joe Hesketh Posted: November 07, 2007 at 11:16 AM (#2607944)
I’m excited about the futures of Joba Chamberlain and Phil Hughes. Who isn’t? But please tell us – in layman’s terms – why you think they will post a 150+ ERA?
First it is useful to picture any statistical projection as one looking through an aperture (the aperture width and direction is set by the current conditions of interest - more positive indicators tilt the aperture ever so slightly above the horizontal). Close by the aperture (in the near future) the range of possible outcomes seems fairly narrow, but the farther away one looks the extreme ranges that represent all possibilities get much wider apart. Imagine that the wider range indicates that in the future, farther into the future, it becomes more likely that given the current vantage point (aperture setting), it is still reasonable to envision very positive outcomes (seen at the top-most edges of the range), and it is possible to see an ever wider range of possibilities that will leave the outcome grounded (poor outcomes).
That clears things up nicely.
Stavin Gavin is back! That's good news for the DLD, I should think.
If any of you have, links, I suggest you post them here.