Tidbits from Taj

While I usually like to post intense, sweeping, all-encompassing rants, I'd like to take a step back for once and just casually and briefly offer my opinions on some noteworthy topics affecting our boys in Green N Gold.

Duke to the Rotation - Count me in as a supporter of this idea...if done for a combination of the right reasons and with good (mostly medical) information supporting the decision.

I actually had the pleasure of having a one-on-one, very off-the-record and casual, but lengthy, chat with Duke near the end of last season. He said he enjoyed his late-inning role and would of course do what it took for the team to win ballgames, but that he and his agent have labored hard for the team to consider him as a starter AND to offer him a long-term contract. He didn't get into health issues, but said he feels much more comfortable as a starter (I'm sure every pitcher does when looking at recent free agent starting pitcher contracts!)

If it can be assumed that Duke would be healthier over a full season as a starter with regular 4 days of rest (not unreasonable to assume if the uneven bullpen workload affected his health at all) and if his success translated reasonably well to the rotation (also not unreasonable due to his past success as a starter, his control, ability to get K's, and 4-pitch repertoire) then I'm all for it.

From a business and player-relations perspective, this move could be a relatively low-risk coup for Beane. Say he meticulously reviews Duke's medical reports and off-season progress and thinks, with reasonable certainty, that he (Justin) could be stretched out successfully. He then approaches Duke's camp over the winter and says, "We're making you a starter and giving you a significant pay raise next season on the condition that you agree to a two-year deal with a third-year option attached". So maybe Beane throws Justin $2.5 million next season and $3.75 million in 2009 along with a $5 million option attached for 2010.

If agreed to, that contract would give Justin what he wants (a chance at starting and a long-ish term contract) while Billy and the team get either a potentially solid starter at a huge discount OR a proven, successful late-inning reliever at roughly market rate, with limited financial and contractual risk. At least to me, that arrangement would make everybody happy (even me and I won't get a dime from anybody!) But, as is the usually the case with the A's, this call is ALL about health.

(As far as the bullpen taking a huge hit sans Justin, I don't buy it. One thing Beane's got fairly good at the past few seasons is building a solid bullpen. Embree was a solid signing, and if he thinks we need more back there, then he'll get it in a similar fashion).

Getting Some Offense From SS and CF - I doubt Billy is going to be able to swing any type of deal that simultaneously gets rid of either or both of Crosby and Kotsay while at the same time bringing in capable replacements for them (including free agents). And I really don't even think Beane thinks that he NEEDS to find replacements for them. So we're stuck with them. But we shouldn't be hopelessly stuck with them like we were last season.

Crosby should be platooned with Donnie Murphy. Murphy crushes left-handed pitching, while Crosby struggles equally against righties and lefties. Crosby is the better defender and Beane favorite, so he will remain the starter in most games. But the team will get an offensive boost from the position once a week or so, which will be nice.

As far as center, I am on-board with at least experimenting with transitioning Buck to the position. I know PaulThomas, and probably others, are vehemently against this idea. But I think that Buck has the talent and instincts to handle the position. In his limited time last season, Buck had a perfect fielding percentage while handling all three outfield positions. He also had a very high zone rating for all three positions. He's got a legit right-field arm and is fleet enough to cover a lot of ground in the field. It's a given that as a young outfielder he needs to diligently improve his route to fly balls. We shouldn't expect that a 23-year old who is two years out of college and one season removed from Double-A is going to be as fundamentally sound in the outfield as a 10-year veteran. But we should recognize that Buck does indeed have the skillset to become at least an average center fielder.

In addition, having Mark Kotsay, one of the best in the majors at recognizing hits and taking the best routes to balls-in-play, on the roster to mentor Buck is a luxury the team should exploit. And with both Kotsay and Chris Denorfia in the mix for next season, the team will have plenty of solid defensive options should Buck not make the cut in center. I really see no valid reason for the team NOT to at least try Buck in center for awhile. The organization has no near-major league ready prospects that could handle center field. And at the very least, getting Buck more practice in the position will allow the team to at least use him as a 2nd or 3rd center fielder and spare us the agony of watching Swisher out there in emergency situations.

Right-handed Pop - Another reason to move Buck away from the corners semi-permanently is to open up a spot in the field and on the roster for another bat. There is really no other place on the diamond to logically add an offensive piece. Cust should be a full-time DH. All the other positions will be filled by incumbents from last season or talented rookies (Suzuki, Barton).

And let's face it, Beane is not going to overpay and/or go 4, 5 or 6 years with Aaron Rowand, Mike Cameron, Andruw Jones or Torii Hunter to get a little more offense out of center. The team is going to have to add more offense either from within or via trade, and the easiest position to target is corner outfield.

Chris Denorfia is a wild card here. If he's fully healthy, his minor league track record suggests that he could be a strong defensive outfielder with some right-handed pop. He's been a fairly consistent high-average hitter, which would make him a nice compliment to our low-average middle-order guys. But it's hard to make bold predictions for a guy who hasn't played a game of professional baseball in over a year. Taking that uncertainty into account, opening up a corner spot could allow Beane to make a play for:

Xavier Nady: he's a guy Beane has pursued in the past, and when Beane sets his sights on someone, he usually gets them to Oakland, one way or another. With a major transition time unfolding in Pittsburgh, the Bucs might be willing to unload Xavier and his salary for some A-AA level minor league talent. I've never seen Xavier actually play, but he seems to have been a college stud that has shown some power as a professional and a decent glove in the outfield.

Moises Alou: Sure, the guy's 40-years old, but he still raked last season and played a decent left field. If the Mets don't exercise his option, he should be pursued. He would be THE perfect compliment for this offense: high-slugging, high-contact, low-strikeout, right-handed, one-year, limited-money commitment.

Jayson Werth: If the Phils re-sign Rowand and/or don't find a way to pawn off Pat Burrell, Jayson might become expendable with Shane Victorino and Michael Bourn major-league ready. The Phils would probably want relief pitching in exchange, which could be worked out depending on who they ask for. Jayson caught my eye this year when he finally recovered from his endless string of injuries to go on a tear in which he led all of baseball in hitting with runners in scoring position for a long stretch of time. Usually, my stat-head senses would say, "Whatever; he got hot. There's no such thing as clutch hitting." But the thing with Jayson is that he hits a TON of line drives (about 25% of his total balls in play the last 3 seasons in which he's played) which I think has really buoyed his batting-average-to-balls-in-play (which was almost .400 this past season) which in turn has led to more sharp, run-scoring hits. So, while clutch hitting might not be a skill, hitting line-drives definitely is, and Jayson's pretty good at doing that.

Waiver-Wire Activity - I'm not too concerned about why A's brass let Jay Marshall go on waivers earlier this week after keeping him on the active roster all season. When Marshall began the season he put up decent numbers. But as the season wore on he became gradually more exposed for what he is: a reliever with very limited usefulness that had never pitched above A ball before this season. But since last season turned south so suddenly, it made some sense for the team just to hang on to Marshall to see what he could do. He didn't impress, and the team probably realized that it had a glut of left-handed relievers already on the 40-man roster (Embree, Blevins, Braden, Meyer, diNardo, Flores) that are probably more useful pitchers than Marshall at this point in time. He was worth a try, it didn't work, he got claimed.

On the other side of the coin, I'm hoping to see Beane and Co. clear more space on the 40-man roster to continue scouring the waiver-wire to make their own claims on players and to protect some of our Rule V draft eligible prospects. Jose Garcia was a nice pickup. I'm hoping that once teams start deciding whom to non-tender and the A's get their internal roster-shuffling in order, Beane will make more of these pickups. High up on my list: Chin hui-Tsao, who is likely to be non-tendered by the Dodgers. He's an injury wreck, but if he's signed to a minor-league contract and can regain some semblance of health, he could be a really nice addition to the pen or even possible starter since he's always had wicked stuff and good control.

On the 40-man front, the team should get some relief when Stewart, Piazza and DaVannon file for free agency or retire. That should open a few spots for guys like Landon Powell, Richie Robnett or Jeff Gray, who are going to be draft eligible. But if the team wants to really add some proven depth to the major league team (by possibly signing a free agent or two and/or picking up a Rule V-er for themselves), then A's brass will have to retain some flexibility on the roster by non-tendering potentially injured/expensive players (Calero, Snelling) or trading away excesses (Dan Johnson). The roster-shuffling alone should make this "hot stove" season interesting for the A's.

Know Your Enemy - One external development we A's fans should keep our eye on this winter is how new Angels GM Tony Reagins handles his first off-season. First off, on a personal note, you have to be encouraged by Tony's story: the product of a home with only a single-mother to care for a large family (Tony's dad died when he was 4) Tony seems to have really taken the initiative on his own to be successful, first going to community college, then to Cal State Fullerton, then interning for the Angels for a full 7 years before being added to their full-time staff, thereby working his way up the organizational ladder. Gotta commend a guy for hard-work and persistence, especially against the odds.

But moving on - what can we expect from this guy as the fresh-faced puppeteer of our arch-rivals? Will he be the wheeling-dealing, shoot-from-the hip deal-maker or just boringly similar to Stonehands? Well, one thing that can be assumed from his background (Marketing major in college, Marketing intern for the Halos, Scout, manager of baseball operations, Director of Player Development) is that he probably really buys into the Angels' on-field philosophy - aggressive base-running, high-average hitters, speed over power, etcetera. Being brought up painstakingly through the organization, he probably also has some kind of an inherent loyalty to the minor league players he's overseen for so many years, which means he won't be mortgaging good prospects for overpaid veterans.

But, as a marketing major and new guy looking to make a good impression on the fans and ownership, he probably also understands the need for the Angels to add more big power to their lineup - without taking too much of a risk - financial, PR or otherwise.

So taking all that into account, I would guess that, for the most part, Reagins will follow in the steps of Stonehands - who's being retained as a "consultant" to the team - at least for the short-term. I would rule out big plays for Bonds (too controversial) or A-Rod (too much money involved for a freshman GM) this winter, but would instead predict a medium-sized trade going down.

Miggy looks finally primed to leave Baltimore and to convert to third base permanently. If the Angels offer anything close to what they did a year or so ago for him (some combination of Ervin Santana, Joe Saunders, Chone Figgins, Reggie Willits, Erick Aybar, maybe a lower-level prospect) I think a deal gets done, and that will be the big off-season acquisition. I could also see the team making a play to sign Carlos Silva for some reason. Nothing concrete here, just my gut feeling. The Halos have a "thing" for Venezuelan pitchers, and I get the impression that they aren't totally thrilled with a back-rotation that includes Dustin Moseley and/or Joe Saunders.

So there you have it. I predict Reagins will trade for Tejada and sign Carlos Silva. A little help on offense and a little help on defense.