Fire-up the Hot Stove: Free Agents
by athleticsBB4life on Oct 10, 2007 12:42 PM PDT
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PrintWell, I don't know about you, but I'm ready for the hot stove season to commence. I ran across an article listing free agents and possible free agents for the upcoming off-season and I thought I would share it with my fellow ANers. *This list will grow once non-tenders are established.
Overall, it's a pretty weak crew. Obviously, the jewel of the every day player class is some guy named Rodriguez; besides that, the second tier would include Hunter, Rowand, Andruw Jones, and possibly Dunn and Posada.
Of the starting pitchers, Maddux, Schilling, Glavine, and possibly Pettitte seem to be the only above average players available. On the relief side, Cordero, Rivera, Linebrink, Wickman, Gagne, Borowski, and possibly Nathan are worth mention.
Some guys I think the A's should make a play for: David Eckstein(SS); Guillen(RF); Rowand(CF); Colon (SP); and Linebrink(RP).
Eckstein is a winner, would be insurance for Crosby and has history with Ellis from their days at Florida University.
Guillen is a plus defensive OF and the right handed bat the A's desperately need.
Rowand also fits the right handed bat the A's need and could be a suitable replacement for Kotsay in CF.
Colon, coming off 2 injury filled seasons, which would make him cheap(er) and would be worth the risk.
Linebrink is a nice reliever and would spare A's fans of another season of Casilla.
Free Agents:
Catcher: Posada(NYY)*; LoDuca(NYM); Torrealba(COL); Piazza(OAK); Bako(Bal); Mirabelli(Bos); Kendall(ChC); Valentin(Cin); Ausmus(Hou); LaRue(KC); Lieberthal(LAD)*; Miller(Mil); Alomar(NYM); Castro(NYM); DeFelice(NYM); Molina(NYY); Barajas(Phl)*; Bennett(StL)*; Stinnett(StL); Barrett(SD); Casanova(TB); Paul(TB); and Fasano (TOR).
First Base: Casey(DET); Clark(AZ); Klesko(SF); Sweeney(KC); Mientkiewicz(NYY); Franco(ATL); Hinske(BOS); Ward(ChC)*; Hatteberg(CIN); Hillenbrand(LAD); Saenz(LAD); Sweeney(LAD); Conine(NYM); Cairo(StL); Norton(TB)*; and Fick(WSH).
Second Base: Matsui(COL); Castillo(NYM); Giles(SD); Easley(NYM); Graffanino(MIL); Bellhorn(CIN); Martinez(LAD)*; Valentin(NYM); Blum(SD); Hairston Jr.(TEX); and Jimenez(WSH).
Third Base: Rodriguez(NYY)*; Lowell(BOS); Feliz(SF); Lamb(HOU); A. Boone(FLA); Cirillo(AZ); Gomez(CLE); Koskie(MIL)*; Nunez(PHL)*; Branyan(StL); and Batista(WSH).
Shortstop: Eckstein(Stl); Uribe(CWS)*; Loretta(HOU); Vizquel(SF); Izturis(PIT)*; Woodward(ATL); Clayton(BOS); and Perez(DET).
Outfield: Dunn(CIN); Hunter(MIN); Rowand(PHL); Guillen(SEA)*; Bonds(SF); Jones(ATL); Patterson(BAL); Kielty(BOS); Floyd(ChC)*; Erstad(CWS)*; Lofton(CLE); Nixon(CLE); Palmeiro(HOU); Sanders(KC); Gonzalez(LAD); Jenkins(MIL)*; White(MIN)*; Alou(NYM)*; Anderson(NYM); Green(NYM); Abreu(NYY)*; DaVanon(OAK); Stewart(OAK); Wilson(StL); Bradley(SD); Cameron(SD); Clark(SD); Mackowiak(SD)*; Stairs(TOR); Sosa(TEX); and Wilkerson(TEX).
Starting Pitcher: Greg Maddux(SD)*; Curt Schilling(Bos): Andy Pettitte(NYY)*; Carlos Silva(Min.); Roger Clemens(NYY); Livan Hernandez(Ari.); Kris Benson(Bal.)*; Jaret Wright(Bal.); Matt Clement(Bos.); Julian Tavarez(Bos.)*; Tim Wakefield(Bos.)*; Steve Trachsel(ChC)*; Eric Milton(Cin.); Paul Byrd(Cle.); Elmer Dessens(Col.); Josh Fogg(Col.); Rodrigo Lopez(Col.); Mark Redman(Col.); Kenny Rogers(Det.); Byung-Hyun Kim(Fla.); Jason Jennings(Hou.); Odalis Perez(KC)*; John Thomson(KC); Bartolo Colon(LAA); David Wells(LAD); Randy Wolf(LAD); Tom Glavine(NYM)*; Brian Lawrence(NYM)*; Freddy Garcia(Phi.); Jon Lieber(Phi.); Kyle Lohse(Phi.); Tony Armas Jr.(Pit.); Joel Pineiro(StL)*; Kip Wells(StL); Brett Tomko(SD); Russ Ortiz(SF); Jeff Weaver(Sea.); Joe Kennedy(Tor.); Victor Zambrano(Tor); and Jamey Wright(Tex).
Relief Pitcher: Joe Nathan(Min.)*; Francisco Cordero(Mil); Mariano Rivera(NYY); Russ Springer(StL); Eric Gagne(Bos); Bob Wickman (Ari); Octavio Dotel(Atl)*; Ron Mahay(Atl); Mike Timlin(Bos); Scott Eyre(ChC)*; Kerry Wood(ChC)*; Mike Myers(CWS)*; Eddie Guardado(Cin)*; Joe Borowski(Cle); Aaron Fultz(Cle); Jeremy Affeldt (Col); LaTroy Hawkins(Col)*; Matt Herges(Col); Jorge Julio(Col); Ramon Ortiz(Col); Todd Jones(Det); Armando Benitez(Fla); Trever Miller(Hou); Brian Moehler(Hou); David Riske(KC)*; Roberto Hernandez(LAD); Rudy Seanez(LAD); Ray King(Mil); Scott Linebrink(Mil); Aaron Sele(NYM); Ron Villone(NYY); Luis Vizcaino(NYY); Antonio Alfonseca(Phi); Jose Mesa(Phi); J.C. Romero(Phi); Shawn Chacon(Pit); Troy Percival(StL); Doug Brocail(SD); Chris Reitsma(Sea)*; Arthur Rhodes(Sea); Al Reyes(TB)*; and Jay Witasick(TB)
Source: MLBPA & Detroit Free Press
*Denotes Player or Team Option for 2008 Season
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Don't like most of your guys ...
Eckstein is coming off a good season and should be looking for a raise. He's a decent enough player -- but $5-6m is a bit much for a backup infielder. He also wouldn't likely accept a backup role.
Guillen is not coming back. That's just silly. Besides which, we clearly don't need another corner outfielder.
Rowand is a good player. Given the glut of CFs on the market, he might even not be too overpriced. He could be worthwhile.
Colon ... Colon has had an era of at least 5.00 in three of the last four years. He's probably not going to be able to demand a multi-year, but he'll still get good money for 2008.
Linebrink is a good pitcher -- but his k-rate dropped significantly this year, bad sign.
I should clarify....
Eckstein would make a nice stop-gap replacement for Crosby if they are willing and able to unload him this off-season.
The A's desperately need a right handed power hitter. If you don't put that player in one of the corner OF slots, where do you put him? 1b, 2b, 3b, SS, C, DH are not options.
Colon fits the Big-Hurt, Shannon Stewart mold for me. Veteran coming off injuries and willing to work cheap to prove himself for another big pay-day.
Rowand is wishful thinking for me, and the A's definitely could use another 'pen arm, there are a lot of questions for that area of the team.
by athleticsBB4life on Oct 10, 2007 1:07 PM PDT up reply actions
Okay ...
Eckstein would be a decent option if we moved Crosby ... depends on how many years he would require.
Guillen is unlikely to out slug Swisher or Buck. Unless we sign A-Rod or Rowand or trade from Manny, our lineup is going to be lefty heavy. There really isn't any way to get around that. You have to play the cards you are dealt.
If Colon isn't able to get a contract for at least $10m, I'll be shocked. In today's market that might be considered "working cheap" but it's not really a smart price to pay in my book.
Open up the safe
Go for the gusto, sign A-Rod. Offer him $1 Billion dollars for a 50 year contract. Baseball salaries are crazy, so maybe that aint so crazy.
by billyball1981 on Oct 10, 2007 2:58 PM PDT up reply actions
That's only $20M a year
He'd never take that kind of pay cut!
OK then
Make it a 40 year contract. When he's done playing he can sell peanuts.
by billyball1981 on Oct 10, 2007 6:12 PM PDT up reply actions
that's no good.
It doesn't adjust for inflation.
In 40 years, he'll be making the minimum...
by King Richard on Oct 10, 2007 6:42 PM PDT up reply actions
The A's desperately
need power hitters. Regardless of whether they are right or left handed.
The problem with Eckstein is that you would probably have to pay slightly more than his "true" value: proven winner, WS MVP. He also is not a picture of durability: 123 games played in 2006, 117 this year. And he is 32.
Eckstein is not good
He's one of the worst defensive SS in baseball at this point, and his bat is league average only in a best case scenario.
yep
Eckstein is not good. And enough of this "he knows how to win" crap some people are spewing out....
by Travis Buck Nuckin on Oct 11, 2007 12:05 PM PDT up reply actions
Wait
Why? Why do we need a right handed power bat? People spout this off all the time here, but I've never seen a logical defense of it. Maybe if you're Tony LaRussa and you micro-manage to a fault, there's something to be gained by a lefty-righty balance, but I've yet to see any type of legitimate study suggest that there's any quantifiable advantage to having a lefty-righty balance throughout the lineup.
Personally, I'd just like a good power hitter. What side he hits from couldn't make the slightest difference to me.
by walk off bunt on Oct 11, 2007 1:26 PM PDT up reply actions
I should add
That Jose Guillen really isn't a terrible idea. I don't know where you're going to stick him, what with Swisher and Buck manning the corners, and Cust being fine at DH, but Guillen is,at least, what you say he is. Defensive plus in the outfield, and generally solid hitter with power.
That being said, it'd be silly to prefer him to, say, the left handed Adam Dunn, simply because Guillen is a righty and Dunn a lefty.
by walk off bunt on Oct 11, 2007 1:30 PM PDT up reply actions
Linebrink is NOT someone to acquire
Besides, signing free-agent relievers is usually pointless, especially right-handed relievers. They're a dime a dozen. I have a lot more confidence in Billy Beane to produce one than I have in Scott Linebrink.
I'm not a fan of the A's signing any free agents other than A-Rod or Kosuke Fukudome for more than a 1-year deal. (Maddux would be cool as a one-year deal though. And as a contact pitcher, he'd benefit from the A's good up-the-middle defense.)
Linebrink
wasn't all that good in 2006, with the Padres in Petco. In fact his performance with the Brewers this year, was better than it was with the Padres in 2006, and this year: 3.57 ERA with the Padres last year, 3.80 this, 3.55 ERA with the Brewers.
Sign a free agent w/o giving up a draft pick?
While none of the free agents wow me, I wonder if Beane will take advantage of the fact that the A's finished in the bottom 15 of all MLB teams. If I understand correctly, the bottom 15 teams do not have to give up a first round draft pick if they sign another team's free agent.
they give up a 2nd round pick instead ...
Well, sort of
Nowadays with all the sandwich picks, it's more like a three-and-a-halfth round pick.
RE: Giving up draft picks
...This is a little off topic, but I think A Rod's contract prevents the Yankees from offering him arbitration. Without arbitration, the team that signs him won't have to cough up the draft picks right???
by Travis Buck Nuckin on Oct 11, 2007 12:04 PM PDT up reply actions
If that's the case, yes.
I like a few of the names on that list
Maddux, Rowand, and Rivera.....oh and A-Rod of course! Actually, I tried posting a diary earlier today and the system keeps telling me "Error" and I don't know what I'm doing wrong. ERRRRRR!!!!!
Anyway, here it was and not too long either.Hope you don't mind BB4Life..
A's making a pretty modest but useful trade. The A's get Jeff Kent and pay 7 million of his 9 million dollar contract (or even all of it) for three A level prospects and perhaps some one from the big league roster. (Please feel free to insert your pick/picks) Billy Beane gets the right handed hitter DH the lineup needs plus good contact hitter, decent OBP, and another experienced veteran-backup infielder. Now some may argue that the man is an island, loner, hick, redneck, etc...but I say this: If the A's can trade for Milton Bradley and all his baggage, sign Esteba Loaiza and his shady reputation, and even publicly consider signing Barry Bonds...well there is my point. I think it is possible that the A's have the right mix of youth and veterans on the team to balance out the very strange egg that is Mr. Jeff Kent. Here are his season and career stats:
SEASON TEAM G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI TB BB SO SB CS OBP SLG AVG
2007 Los Angeles Dodgers 136 494 78 149 36 1 20 79 247 57 61 1 3 .375 .500 .302
Career Totals 2177 8058 1278 2338 537 46 365 1459 4062 776 1470 94 59 .357 .504 .290
I'm not a stat geek but his numbers sure have stayed rather consistent throughout his career.
I was thinking of Kent too
I just don't know where to put him, Cust should be the DH unless we sign Bonds.
I think Kent will sign with either the Mets or the Twins.
Well if the Dodgers don't excersice
his option then he would become a free agent. They would be sill not to unless they are looking to free up money themseleves. I think he would be a great fit on the A's and he can DH while Cust splits time in the outfield and DH. Man, I really would love the A's to go out and get this guy......
Please, Billy. make it happen!
Getting Kent pretty much condemns
Daric Barton to another year in the minors.
It's really not THAT important to have "a right-handed slugger." Ellis and Suzuki ARE right-handed sluggers-- against left-handed pitching, which is where the problem arises. In the case of right-handed pitching, it's an advantage to have a lot of lefties.
I disagree about Barton PT
because 1st base is gonna be his to lose next year. Kent gives you options and that's exactly what the A's need because the lineup is so lefty heavy.
Also, Eliis had a career year with power abd whil that is nice you cannot look at his career and say, "Well that guy is a slugger". (Kent is the all time leading home run hitter for 2nd basemen.) Same goes for Suzuki, the kid just got to the show and I would not put money on him to hit more than 15-18 HR's next year.
something else the A's could do is rotate Kent and Barton between 1st base and DH. just a thought.
So who would you have the A's go after PT?
Ellis hit 11 HR in 150 AB against lefties
That's plenty to classify him as a "slugger" in my book. As I said, against righties, a lefty-heavy lineup is a non-issue.
Ok, so look. The A's right now have 4 good hitters for 4 slots: RF, LF, 1B and DH. Cust needs to be the DH, because he's a fielding disaster. Swisher and Buck take the corner OF slots, Barton plays 1B. Where do you put Kent? Short of benching Mark Ellis, which would be a bizarre move to say the least, there's no place for him.
Heck, even if you stuck Cust in the outfield, it means you're either benching Buck or having a disaster of an outfield (Cust, Buck, Swisher is about as bad an outfield as I can imagine defensively).
Seriously, if I was the A's, I would throw every red cent I had in the direction of A-Rod. It wouldn't surprise me if it still didn't land him, but I'd make the effort. If not, I'd push to sign Kosuke Fukudome for center field. SS and CF are the only positions where the A's can fit someone in, and they're the guys who are worth fitting in.
I'd also sound out Kenny Rogers about returning to the Coliseum. He has always pitched well here. If he isn't ready to hang it up yet, I'd give him a deal.
I'd like to have A-Rod
and honestly, who wouldn't... but do we honestly have the resources to even attempt it? Also, if I remember correctly, Fukudome is right handed. So that would give us a right handed bat.
by AsWin on Oct 10, 2007 6:19 PM PDT up reply actions
Who wouldn't?
Yankees fans, apparently.
Go figure....
I like the Gambler idea..
but Rogers has already stated numerous times that it's either the Tigers or retirement next season for him.
I agree that Kenny..
will more than likely be a Tiger or retire.
The As could start a collection of pitchers from Pepperdine and acquire Wolf, LAD is expected to decline his option. He signed a one year contract to play for LAD, so he more than likely will sign another one to play for the As. (And as an added bonus, he is left handed). Now of course, he is also coming off an injury which makes him possibly cheaper and also somewhat of a risk.
by AsWin on Oct 10, 2007 6:41 PM PDT up reply actions
As a Pepperdine alum...
I love that idea!
And I also lobbied to sign Wolff last off-season. He's a wreck, but he's one of the only reclamation projects I'd invest in because he actually pitched pretty damn well this season even while, supposedly hurt, unlike the other guys people are throwing around (Colon).
Why is it a bonus that a starter is left-handed?
It's not like you can pick and choose what teams he faces based on matchups, at least not without a really radical reevaluation of the 5-man rotation.
Either he's good, or he isn't. In my book, being left-handed is actually a leading indicator that a given starter isn't good, although obviously there are plenty of exceptions.
I was being clever in my choice of wordplay...
what I was getting at is our likely next year rotation of:
Haren (RHP)
Harden (RHP)
Blanton (RHP)
Gaudin (RHP)
all throw with the same arm. We do need a lefty in the rotation, or more correct that is the preferred, and Wolf is a better option than Meyer/Braden.
You'll get used to my posts PaulThomas, if it's in paranthesis, I'm probably trying to have a bit of fun... can't be serious all the time.
by AsWin on Oct 10, 2007 10:37 PM PDT up reply actions
No, I mean, I really don't understand
Why do you need a lefty in the rotation? Who cares? Why is it preferred?
Seriously. I've been trying to figure this out for years.
different look
anything that's not common and makes the pitch look different at any point is considered good as far as keeping hitters off balance. Lefty pitchers aren't that common, and that probably is part of the reason why many batters don't hit them well.
All of that is already factored
into their performance stats. In other words, getting a lefty with a 4.00 ERA is not any better than getting a righty. The odds are good that the lefty has weaker stuff and is making up for it with the uncertainty that you talk about.
In other words, why not just get the better pitcher-- whoever it is-- regardless of handedness? I've never seen any evidence whatsoever that teams do worse facing a lefty after a righty, or vice versa.
why worry about getting a RH power bat?
why not just get the best power bat available, even if all the bats in the lineup are LH?
exactly
It's a problem if all your players have significant platoon splits. It's not a problem if they all happen to his left handed.
by MrIncognito on Oct 11, 2007 10:45 AM PDT up reply actions
Does this actually happen, though
Is there evidence anywhere out there that this has ever negatively affected a team in a quantifiable way?
If so, I've never seen it. I'd love to be corrected, though.
by walk off bunt on Oct 11, 2007 1:39 PM PDT up reply actions
Because in the case of hitters,
the opposition can use bullpen pitchers of appropriate handedness to match up against them. But you can't really choose starting pitchers based on their matchups against the opposing team.
Although I have wondered if it might be possible to set up a starting pitcher platoon with the #5/#6 starter/long relief role.
That said, I doubt Kenny Rogers is going to be exactly thrilled at the idea of becoming part of some conceptual experiment.
Amen
Throw whatever you can at A-Rod, see if it works, and if it doesn't, look to upgrade at SS or CF with interesting options like a Fukudome or something.
Getting a "right handed power bat" we can't fit in anywhere because adding a righty to the team appeases your arbitrary sense of lineup construction doesn't help anything.
Rogers is an interesting idea, also. I'd be for any of a number of veteran starting options out there that could come for 4-6 million, eat a crapton of innings, and have a mid 4's ERA.
by walk off bunt on Oct 11, 2007 1:37 PM PDT up reply actions
I say let's have some clubhouse fireworks
Sign Bonds, then sign Kent. What a reunion.
by billyball1981 on Oct 10, 2007 6:14 PM PDT up reply actions
Would Kent accept
not being a regular second baseman -- or even rotating among second, first and DH?
If he's complaining about younger players playing instead of him on the Dodgers, he's likely to be just as unhappy with the A's.
There is no right price.
And let's face it, the way Beane has been collecting gimps, we'll probably have more chance of getting Geoff Jenkins.
Kent would work...
and I do see a spot for him on the As.
Going back to the OP, I do think we will make a "significant" FA acquisition of note. (No, significant does not equal A-Rod or Bonds IMO). But we do have some coin to spend and I think in our all in season of 2008, BB will recognize that LAA, SEA, and TEX will all make moves to improve and in the As way we will counter with a clever addition.
However, although I do support the acquisition of Schilling... The more I think about it, I am starting to wonder if we should spend the money on a Rowand type and leave the SP staff as is. Now it's a high risk move since that means Rich has to be healthy to be in the rotation with Danny, Joe, and Chad.
Just to throw in another name via trade here, if CWS does have in their minds to trade Garland and if the asking price is two relief pitchers then I think the As should inquire about him. Now granted, any talks would have to include CWS paying some of that contract. I think we might be able to pull off a Meyer/Braden and Embree trade for him.
by AsWin on Oct 10, 2007 6:17 PM PDT reply actions
If I were the GM...
I'd go for Matt Clement on an incentives cheap deal, or Brian Lawrence, a sinker baller, to try and turn him around and give him a good defense and a nice pitcher's park to pitch in.
and I'd also go for Mike Cameron.
I think Cameron has a good shot
and your other suggestions look good to me too
Problem's here...
Most of the desirable names being thrown around, are, not coincidentally, the same guys with *options attached to their names. And if that asterisk denotes a TEAM option, you can almost guarantee that it will be exercised. By my rough estimation, that automatically eliminates:
Maddux
Dunn (who acutally has a team option that's not denoted)
Kent (his '08 option already vested as he reached over 550 plate appearances this season and despite his rantings about the young players, is surely coming back to L.A. next season)
Guillen (headcase Billy would not bring him back and is likely to sign extension with Seattle anyway)
Abreu (NYY will work something out with him)
Petitte (will pitch in Houston if he doesn't go back to Yanks)
Joe Nathan (come on, 6 million for the best closer in the game? Minny certainly exercises that option, even just to trade him)
So my point is, look at the fine print and the asterisks. This list will hardly resemble the list that comes out during the Winter when contract negotiations actually start.
Players I would call
Matt Clement - totally worth a one year deal to see if he's healthy.
Marcus Giles - Never too many middle infielders. This is a buy low move.
Paul Byrd - if the playoffs don't inflate his value
Eric Gange - he's had a rough time with Boston, so maybe he'll go cheaply.
Jason Jennings - Much better than his ERA indicates, should be basically free rotation depth.
clement...
IF he is healthy, might be a good idea.
giles is done. definite steroid guy on the downside.
byrd will probably stay in cleveland.
gagne i love, but he wants to close.
jennings is interesting.
I've had my eye on Wolf
since he was a Philly. Interestingly, no one mentions Carlos Silva but he's an A's-type of pitcher (throws strikes, eats innings). If we can get him to think he's pitching against us, he might win 28 games.
Do you want to pay $50 million to Carlos Silva?
Because you can (so to speak) take it to the bank that that's the kind of money he's going to command. He's a #3 who'll be paid like a #2 because the market is so poor.
Well I don't want to throw out Nico's idea..
because I think it could be possible to entertain the thought of acquiring Silva. However, PaulThomas does make a good point in that he will probably price himself out of our reach. I think any FA SP we look at will be a one year deal or at most one and an option. I'm not sure that Silva is going to settle for that. And at the rate he could probably go for, I wouldn't make that move when we could rather have a SS or a CF with the same amount.
Not to mention, I'm not sure Silva brings that much of an improvement over a Wolf/Schilling (who will command less I would guess). What we have already is Haren, Blanton, the bionic Harden (rebuilt again to hopefully be faster, stronger, and able to pitch more than 3 games), and Gaudin. In the strictest sense, what we need is someone to put between Blanton and Gaudin. I think that it is possible that Silva is overbuying for our needs.
by AsWin on Oct 10, 2007 11:00 PM PDT up reply actions
The difference between Silva,
or even Kyle Lohse, and Randy Wolf is innings / health.
The last time Wolf pitched more than 150 innnings was in 2003 with 200 IP. Since then, year by year: 130, 86, 56, 102. Silva in the same period: 203, 188, 180, 202.
Wolf, at this point, is nothing more than a scrap heap "make good" pitcher.
There's no freaking way Silva signs a one year deal. He's in the same class of pitchers as Jeff Suppan, Ted Lilly, etc. He's likely to look for a contract that is similar to theirs.
Exactly!
"Wolf, at this point, is nothing more than a scrap heap "make good" pitcher."
He's perfect for the A's! ***********
If you're just signing
him as s#!+ to toss against the wall to see if he sticks, sure.
If you're planning on him to actually contribute, then don't get disappointed when he ends up being put on waivers.
To expand on my point above
IMO, the A's are better off giving chances to younger, healthy, pitchers; whether home grown like Meyer, Braden or even Windsor, or younger pitchers that other teams have given up on.
Like, say, Jose Garcia
to take an entirely coincidental example.
No I wouldn't pay him 50 mil
I figure most FAs will price themselves out of being smart acquisitions - at which point you back off and let someone else overpay. But I wouldn't discount Silva, or Rowand, or anyone else useful, until that happens. That's why I put him into the conversation - not because I think he'll come cheap enough to be worth signing, but because he would be an asset if the deal were right. And you never know what the asking price will be - Loaiza was surprisingly affordable (as well as surprisingly injured).
In general, I'd stay away from FAs, as Beane does. But this conversation is about who you WOULD be interested in, not "they're all overpriced!" and Silva looks to me like one of the better options on the list among those who won't break the bank as high-profile FAs.
Wolf would be a nice pickup
provided he can get a clean bill of health...which may not be that easy to do. An incentive's laden one year contract would be nice. Then again, I think pitchers will get more interest and offers than position players in this situation.
Kendall for back-up Catcher...
It looks like the Cubs have no interest in bringing Kendall back. I read they plan on going with Soto and Blanco as their catchers next year.
Does this signal the end of Kendall's days as a starting catcher? If so, would the A's and Kendall himself consider a return to Oakland as Suzuki's caddy or will they stick with Bowen?
by athleticsBB4life on Oct 11, 2007 8:06 AM PDT reply actions
More Hot Sove: Trade Haren or Blanton
I expect we will hear a lot of these type rumors this off-season
by athleticsBB4life on Oct 11, 2007 8:09 AM PDT reply actions
Street is probably our best trading chip
If I were Beane, I would be on the phone to an old-school type GM as much as possible. The Phillies (Gillick) would be a nice target.
Interestingly titled article...
but it seems to argue more why Blanton and Haren can't be traded. (Which is what most of us here at AN seem to be pointing at already). Bottom line, we don't have a surplus of pitching. Although, she does hit on an important point that Street is our only viable trading chip this season. Haren will be desirable to a lot of teams, but trading him this off season (and Blanton to some extent) doesn't make a lot of sense due to SP depth, the $4M contract, etc. Quite simply, it's not going to happen as in the most basic of terms, the As need a staff leader. Haren has placed himself in the Zito role when we traded Mulder and Huddy. The only thing that's going to move Blanton is if he is too expensive to keep next year. The ironic thing is people keep assuming that Haren will bring in a major haul over Blanton which is the only reason why his name is being brought up... I just don't think that's the case. Infact, I think Blanton would be more attractive to teams than Haren.
I think the comment someone made in the article got it right. The As will of course listen, but Street has a good chance of being moved this off season... Blanton looks to be a mid season or winter 2008 candidate to be moved, and Haren's job is in jeopardy at earliest winter 2008. I think everybody is fearing a Huddy/Mulder type move but we had more to work with then which made them easier to move and not to mention they had a past with injuries that neither Haren nor Blanton have.
by AsWin on Oct 11, 2007 11:42 AM PDT up reply actions
gillick
already said myers will be the closer next year, and they have gordon as well...or is he a FA? i can't remember. i know the myers part is true.
Trade Street to the Brewers...
by AsWin on Oct 11, 2007 1:01 PM PDT up reply actions
No thanks on Renteria
His defense has gone way down hill. At this point he doesn't give us anything more than Murphy.
Pssssh
Murphy could do that.
He's not likely to be able to match that in 2008
One of these things is not like the others:
Renteria OPS by season:
2004 .728
2005 .721
2006 .797
2007 .860
You don't plan on players duplicating career years, you plan on them performing reasonably close to their career numbers. In Renteria's case, that's an OPS about 100 points below his 2007 numbers. His ZIPS projection for last year was .293/.357/.423. Take those numbers, move him to a tougher league, a tougher hitters park, and regress him for age, and it's not that promising a picture. Throw in his below average defense, and you really aren't getting much value out of your SS.
The A's cannot afford to pay for decline phase players like Renteria.
by MrIncognito on Oct 12, 2007 11:54 AM PDT up reply actions
Really?
Tougher hitter's park? To be honest, I'm not sure where Turner Field rates in regards to hitters/pitchers park. However, Renteria has posted a higher OPS on the road than in Atlanta so I don't see much reason to worry that he's some kind of home field phenomenom.
Furthermore, let's remind ourselves what Bobby Crosby has accomplished with the bat over the last two years.
2006 .636 OPS
2007 .619 OPS
I grant that Crosby has better range than Renteria but Atlanta's soon to be former SS has committed 2 fewer errors in 225 more chances over the past two years, so I'd give the "reliability" edge to Renteria.
But here's the thing that irks me. Boston is on the hook for $2-3 million (I think it's $3 million but I can't confirm that number) of Renteria's 2008 salary PLUS the $3 million buy-out in 2009 if his team declines the option. That means Renteria will cost someone $6 million next year.
The A's are going to be paying Bobby Crosby $3.5 million in 2008.
So go ahead and knock 100 points of OPS from Renteria's production, he'll still be 150 points BETTER than Crosby's woeful contributions with the bat.
Maybe you prefer Crosby's D to Renteria's... fine, I can see that arguement. But don't tell me the A's can't afford to lay out an extra $2.5 million for a SS who can actually hit the freakin' ball. I'm calling bullshit on that.
Who said anything about Crosby?
I said Murphy, who posted a .720 OPS last year.
He of 118 AB last year
My opinion on Crosby is on record and I was hoping to see Murphy seize control of SS after Poof went down (again) but, alas, Murphy got hurt as well. I'm dubious towards defensive metrics, but Range Factor and Zone Rating show very little difference between Murphy and Renteria and both players are a step short of Crosby's level.
Therefore, if you're basing your arguement on defensive ability it is a push betwixt Renteria and Murphy. Offensively, Renteria is ahead of the game. Murphy has not done enough, in my mind, to hand him a starting spot in 2008.
Which leaves us with $$$. 1 year of Renteria at $6 million is not a fiscal detriment.
The real question is, what is your objective for the A's next year? If you want to go re-build mode than I can see an arguement for not pursuing Renteria. You can sink or swim with Murphy in that case. If you want to make a push for the playoffs in '08 than banking on Murphy doesn't make a ton of sense. Going after Renteria for 2008 is the smarter play.
Range Factor and Zone Rating are both worthless
UZR and RZR are both much better. RF and ZR are based on play by play data, whereas UZR and RZR are both determined with data that includes the actually path of the batted balls. They occasionally disagree, but on Renteria they've both seen a big drop-off in defense. Interestingly, Murphy actually scored better than Crosby, but like you said, lack of playing time should make us regard that with some skepticism.
You're also incorrect in your assessment of Renteria's cost. The benefit Renteria will provide will be his performance minus the performance of the players we will have to trade to get him. The suggestion was to trade Street for Renteria. That's a much larger marginal loss than the boost in performance we would see.
Just for a simplistic view, Renteria's bat was worth 87 runs in 543 PAs. Murphy's bat was worth 17 runs in 132 PAs which is about 70 runs in 540 PAs, and Street was worth 29 runs based just on performance (leverage not included). So, disregarding the easier park and league Renteria played in, in a straight swap of Street for Renteria to replace Murphy the A's come out behind on raw production and $6 million in the hole.
I used the numbers easily available
I should take a look at UZR later.
I agree that losing Street for Renteria would be a blow but I think Embree and Duke could pick up the slack. Additionally, the FA market offers Closer options. Unless the A's jump in the A-Rod race there is no FA who offers a significant upgrade at SS.
Yes, this does mean spending money. But the A's (should) have the cash, what they don't have is the talent. Like I said before, if you're thinking rebuild going with Murphy as the SS is a perfectly fine choice. In fact, if you are willing to say 2008 is intended to for nothing other than bringing in young talent than there is absolutely no reason to go after Renteria. (I'd still shop Street but that's another topic altogether.)
But if you're thinking play-offs...
Murphy isn't an option.
So you need to answer this question o' mine. What are your intentions for the A's next year?
It's always to win
I just don't think Renteria adds a whole lot to the team. You always try to maximize return on your dollars, and throwing money at a player who doesn't help the A's doesn't accomplish anything.
I agree with you about shopping Street, but more because I think he's overvalued. He's an excellent pitcher, and losing him would be a blow, but like you say the A's have some depth in the bullpen.
Renteria is a useful player, but you can find useful players to fill in a team. What the A's lack is a core of extremely valuable players to build around. Renteria is the sort of player you go after if you're filling the the gaps. I don't want to see the A's spend their few dollars and trade chips on that sort of player. I would really like to us sign Cameron. If we're spending money, let's bring in someone who is going to be an upgrade both on offense and defense.
You're being too harsh re: Renteria
Is he A-Rod? No.
Per your suggestion I looked up a bunch of defensive stuff, using both BP and THBT and I don't see much that says Renteria would be a huge step backwards on defense. According to the metrics there is little if any difference between the glovework of Reneteria vs. Crosby vs. Murphy. None are spectacular (again, according to the numbers) but none are a detriment.
Which leads us right back to offense.
Renteria is only 32, he's still got plenty of baseball in him PLUS he's heading for a contract year. I like that fact.
As for the cost, well, unless the A's plan to dramatically reduce their payroll from the 2007 level they will have plenty of cash to splurge on Renteria.
Now, if you're leaning towards building a new core to the roster than the A's have a hole at SS for the next couple years. Crosby is not the answer, Pennington has been moved (permanently I think to 2B) Petit might not have enough bat for Beane's liking and Sellers is at least a season and a half away. Renteria fills the whole for one year and he should fill it more than adequately in 2008. And if he does really well the A's can hold on to him for 2009.
Beyond that, I'm not sure what the gameplan is.
Your solution to "have the cash"
"but not the talent" is to expend the team's best bargaining chip, and one of its youngest players, for a rental?
I'm confused.
You could make an argument to me that Street should be flipped for Brent Lillibridge. He's an actual asset, being under team control and whatnot. But Renteria? You gotta be kidding me.
Remember, the A's are on the hoof for Crosby's salary regardless of whether they replace him or not.
No
But I can see why you think I'm going that direction.
I'm working on a diary that explains my mental state more clearly.
Oh good--and don't get side-tracked
talking about baseball.
Not even 6 minutes later...
I'm impressed, you rarely think that quickly. Be honest, you've been saving that response for a special occasion, haven't you?
It took me 3 and 1/2 hours to think of an answer:
Yes.
Good to know I can leave for a while
and the important things won't change.
it's okay grover
Main reason to trade Street
is so that someone else gets to pay for the Tommy John surgery. I don't think that elbow issue is going away for a slider-dependent pitcher with weird mechanics.
I think the two pitchers we should look at
are Freddy Garcia and Jason Jennings. Two pitchers who got injured this year, are free agents, who were good in the past, and whom we might be able to convince to get 1 year deals in hope of a Kevin Millwood season.
They would have to come very cheaply though
Garcia wasn't any good even when healthy in 2006, and Jennings has been consistently mediocre his whole career.
This was my argument for Colon
by athleticsBB4life on Oct 11, 2007 10:26 AM PDT up reply actions
Garcia's only 22; worth the risk
by athleticsBB4life on Oct 11, 2007 2:01 PM PDT up reply actions
I think he was talking about Freddy
and in that, I concur wholeheartedly. He's coming off shoulder surgery and wasn't even good before it this year. That has way too much end-stage Brad Radke in it for my liking.
my fault
definitely was talking about freddy garcia.
Fan boy dream
I'd love to sign A-Rod and pull what the Giants did with Bonds so long ago and stick him back at SS. Then trade Crosby or Kotsay or both + bullpen arm(s) for Coco Crisp.
The defense would take a hit, but the difference on offense would be beyond huge plus much of the injury worries would be lessened as well.
Lineup:
CF Crisp S
1B Barton L
SS ARod R
DH Cust L
RF Swish S
3B Chavez L
2B Ellis R
LF Buck L
C Klutch R
I'm unclear what the point of paying Coco Crisp
$5 million to do what Chris Denorfia can do for $400,000 would be. Or what's in it for Boston. They're going to play Ellsbury over Kotsay every day of the week and twice on a doubleheader.
Seriously, guys
I just need to say it. There's little to no evidence I've ever seen that having a "righty presence" or some such nonsense makes a lefty heavy lineup better. It's a minor, minor issue at best, and at worst you shoot yourself in the foot getting some dude because a right hander arbitrarily appeals to your aesthetic senses.
Really, AN's fetish with having a "right handed power bat" as opposed to "power bat" is one of the single strangest things I've witnessed.
You've obviously never been at my house
on a Saturday night.
The one cogent argument I see to having L-R-L balance is that even if your hitters hit opposing LHP/RHP fairly evenly, opposing pitchers usually do a lot better with the "platoon advantage". So you're kind of bailing out the Joe Kennedys and Dallas Bradens (just to use examples of pitchers whose splits we know well) if you allow them to face the kind of hitter they thrive against, over and over.
So sure, I'll take better hitters over worse hitters regardless of how they bat - but all things being equal I WOULD prefer some balance, just so as not to make it any easier for opposing pitchers than I have to.
And yet
for every Joe Kennedy there's a Paul Byrd or a Kirk Saarloos, which a lefty-heavy lineup will destroy.
Again, it's important to define your terms here. Everything else being equal, if you have two hitters with identical hitting talent except that one bats right-handed and the other bats left-handed, the left-hander will post better statistics because he has the platoon advantage 3/4 of the time.
Conversely, if you have a righty and a lefty producing identical statistics, the right-handed hitter is almost certain to have more pure talent because he's producing the same results under tougher conditions.
I suspect that the reason why the A's are lefty-heavy is that it's cheaper to buy a slightly less talented lefty than a slightly more talented righty (because scouts prefer the latter) even though both of them will post the same overall hitting production.
What gave people the bizarre impression
that Jose Guillen is a 'plus defender' in right field?
He wasn't even an average defender with Seattle last year.
Them's some crappy free agents.
The only way to improve this roster in the offseason seems to be via trade. It might be worth signing one of the question mark guys to a one-year deal and letting them go if they succeed, a la Thomas or Stewart, but otherwise, I don't see much value here.
I'm in favor of the idea of trading Street. We lack the depth in the rotation to trade Haren or Blanton, unless we got a pile of young pitching in return.
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