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A's Offense by Month

It can be dangerous to try to break down the numbers too much - most of us have a tendency to dismiss some numbers as anomalous, or think others represent a trend, when all we are seeing is statistical noise. Nonetheless, I thought it might be worthwhile to look at how the A's did on offense, both as individuals and as a group, on a month-by-month basis.

I used OPS here because it's readily available, and highly correlated with run scoring, and only included months where the individuals had a significant number of at-bats. Here are the numbers, followed by a few observations (no real analysis):

Star-divide


               Apr     May     June    July    Aug     Sept            Total
Barton                                                  1067            1067
Cust                    1022    970     757     1063    741             912
Buck            750     1098    808     713     907                     851
Swisher         919     1007    648     828     815     833             836
Bradley         786                                                     819
Hannahan                                        879     738             793
Ellis           724     601     906     661     785     951             777
Johnson                 982     684     571     772     758             767
Chavez          771     595     872     780                             752
Stewart         642     760     1005    736     615     764             739
Suzuki                                  573     776     692             735
Murphy                                          828     712             731
Piazza          705                     871     633     794             727
Scutaro         427     775     757     584     864     619             693
Crosby          586     779     505     584                             619
Davanon                                         604                     596
Walker          517                                                     580
Kotsay                          612     653                             575
Kendall         401     472     758     515                             542

Team            658     793     760     681     785     774             745

Runs/G          3.8     5       4.3     4       5.2     5.1             4.6
RA/G            3.6     4.1     4       5.3     5.3     5.8             4.7          
Record          12-13   14-13   15-13   9-18    17-12   9-17          76-86
 

  • The league average was a .761 OPS, and 4.9 runs per game, and the A's actually did better than that in three of the six months - May, when Cust, Buck, Swisher and Johnson were on simultaneous tears, and August and September, when they finally got some of the deader lumber out of the lineup.
  • On the flip side, April and July were total disasters, with four or five regulars hitting below the Davanon line each month and no one really picking up the slack. June was a disaster of a different sort, as the A's hit like an average team but failed to translate that into runs.
  • Daric Barton's 1.067 OPS in the three weeks that he played is identical to what Alex Rodriguez (the major league leader) had over the full year. Of course, I don't expect Barton to duplicate that next year, but it's awfully hard not to be excited about his potential. Cust's .912 was tenth in the AL.
  • As the A's scored more runs in the second half, they also allowed many more as well. This is unfortunately not entirely coincidence. The late-season changes - replacing an ailing Chavez with Hannahan, and Crosby with Scutaro and Murphy, moving Swisher to center field while getting Kotsay out of the lineup, and playing Cust frequently in right - all got better bats into the lineup at the expense of defense.
  • The outlook for 2008 is, IMO, not so bad: Barton, Cust, Buck, and Swisher should provide a good core to the offense. None of them is likely to have an MVP-type year, but they don't need to either - as long as two or three are hitting well at any time, this team should score some runs. (Buck's ability to stay healthy has to be a real concern, though.) Ellis at 2B and Suzuki at C are decent complementary parts, and we should also be OK at 3B too with either Hannahan or a healthier Chavez. That leaves (as so many other diaries have already said) SS and CF. At SS, neither Scutaro nor Murphy did anything to win a full-time job - start writing those anti-Crosby rants now. For CF, I really hope Denorfia proves worthy of the two pitchers Beane gave up for the right to watch him rehab for the year - even marginal competence (offense and defense) would be better than what we got this year.

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Comments

Display:

In terms of OPS

the A's best month for offense was...

...May.

[head explodes]

by Hegenberger Road on Oct 1, 2007 8:50 PM PDT reply actions  

You know...

..the way Barton debuted, and the way Haren has played all season, should really put a cap on any further "Billy Beane has lost his edge" talk for a while.

Mulder who?

Our top four OPS guys were a trade, a 'behind the couch' pick-up, a rookie draft pick, and a 'veteran' draft pick.

Next up is Bradley (whatever), then you've got Hannahan - another spare change pick-up.

That's really phenomenal success for a bunch of guys that nobody, but nobody, would have been talking about as a remote possibility of big things at the beginning of the year (Swisher notwithstanding).

We keep talking about the new stadium increasing the size of Billy's payroll... maybe it's best that he keep it low, since that's where he's God.

The Chavez Shift: 6 infielders and 2 catchers.

by Ozzz on Oct 2, 2007 9:05 AM PDT reply actions  

not true

indeed i believe billy will always work with a relatively moderate payroll (middle of the road as we are now) I think that holding on to our crop of talent (Barton, Swisher, etc.) and picking a type A free agent here or there will make this team a contender for a very long time.

by AsFoLife on Oct 2, 2007 9:28 AM PDT up reply actions  

Well, let's not go too far out on a limb

Buck and Barton were respectively rated the #1 and #2 prospects in the A's system by Baseball America last spring, so it's not like they were exactly spare change from the couch cushions. And one can't talk about the Mulder trade without talking about the Hudson trade (or vice versa); collectively the two trades were a solid plus for the A's to this point but not a ridonkulous steal.

Nonetheless I basically agree with you; this year (as separate from the vestiges of prior years, like the Kotsay extension) was a very good one for Beane.

by PaulThomas on Oct 2, 2007 9:33 AM PDT up reply actions  

#1 and #2 prospects is one thing.
#1 and #2 productive major league starters is another.

You expect a #1 prospect to come into the majors and hold his own for a while before reaching a solid starter role in the organization, generally speaking. Both Barton and Buck far surpassed that, like Street did before them.

We should play Jack Cust at shortstop for a week, just so we can feel good about Crosby again.

by Ozzz on Oct 2, 2007 3:41 PM PDT up reply actions  

Every single player ...

listed above, with the exception of Mike Piazza, was either acquired through a draft pick, a trade, or a behind the couch free agent move. It would stand to probability that most of our top players would then have been acquired that way.

"It's for your own good. Big strong Devo knows whats best for Poppy" -- Mossback

by devo on Oct 2, 2007 9:51 AM PDT up reply actions  

mm-hmm.
The initial point being, when we made those trades and/or free agent moves, we weren't going gangbusters for a big money guy, we were picking up off-cuts and also-rans that BB and his folks saw something strong in.

Haren and Barton for Mulder? Who seriously thought back then that we were getting the bad ass deal we got when that was signed?

It's the Loaiza's and Piazza's that have turned out to have limited return on the investment for the A's. When we dig amongst the dusty stones is when we seem to find the diamonds.

We should play Jack Cust at shortstop for a week, just so we can feel good about Crosby again.

by Ozzz on Oct 2, 2007 3:40 PM PDT up reply actions  

a lot of people?

"Haren and Barton for Mulder? Who seriously thought back then that we were getting the bad ass deal we got when that was signed?"

i wish AN had a better search system, the current one is pretty much useless.  not only were did a lot of ANers think it was a good deal, but i remember reading a really long and convincing post (i think supposedly from a scout) on some cards message board arguing that it was going to be one of the worst trades ever for them.

A's v Giants "is kind of like the difference between going to see the Ramones and going to see the Bee Gees. A's fans will go see the Ramones." -BB 07/27/05

by xbhaskarx on Oct 2, 2007 4:09 PM PDT up reply actions  

Alright, I'll cede.
Some people know their schisse.
We should play Jack Cust at shortstop for a week, just so we can feel good about Crosby again.

by Ozzz on Oct 3, 2007 1:03 PM PDT up reply actions  

My point ...

Is that, given the miniscule number of attempts at significant free agent signings, his success rate (something like 2 out of 5 - Embree, Thomas v Piazza, Loaiza, Rhodes) is statistically meaningless because the sample is so small.

"It's for your own good. Big strong Devo knows whats best for Poppy" -- Mossback

by devo on Oct 7, 2007 5:35 PM PDT up reply actions  

Sad...but realistic too

that in your core of four guys who should be the big run-getters, you didn't mention Chavez.  

Good diary!

I love you, k^2. -Poppy*

by kaweahkaweah on Oct 2, 2007 10:17 AM PDT reply actions  

Extremely unpopular opinion
but one Barry Bonds in the lineup would make such a dramatic difference.  To have Cust batting 5th behind Buck, Barton, Bonds, and Swish, would give us more offense from our 1-5 hole than we've seen in years.  And the bottom half would look almost as good as the top half for the last few months of this year with Ellis, Hanahan/Chavvy, Suzuki, and Denorfia.  Sure Cust would make a fair share of errors/misplays (I saw one in Cleveland in the one game I made it to this year), but he'd more than make up for it at the plate.

It'd be an unpopular move, but with Barry Bonds in the lineup, we'd be legitimate WS contenders.  Add a healthy Rich Harden and bullpen, and I'd put us in the top 5-6 teams in baseball next year.

"To me, boxing is like a ballet, except there's no music, no choreography, and the dancers hit each other." - Jack Handey

by JJ on Oct 2, 2007 11:39 AM PDT reply actions  

not that unpopular

http://www.athleticsnation.com/comme...

A's v Giants "is kind of like the difference between going to see the Ramones and going to see the Bee Gees. A's fans will go see the Ramones." -BB 07/27/05

by xbhaskarx on Oct 2, 2007 1:59 PM PDT up reply actions  

I like that lineup

but I'm a little concerned that you seem to have Jack Cust playing shortstop.

by PaulThomas on Oct 2, 2007 4:10 PM PDT up reply actions  

no, no

we'd just play with 4 outfielders.  If LaRussa can bat the pitcher 8th, we can move an infielder to the outfield.

"To me, boxing is like a ballet, except there's no music, no choreography, and the dancers hit each other." - Jack Handey

by JJ on Oct 3, 2007 4:49 AM PDT up reply actions  

that's crazy

obviously, swish plays short.

by ozzman99 on Oct 3, 2007 6:52 PM PDT up reply actions  

where he'll still encroach on Ellis's territory
I've struck out my whole life. I've come to grips with it. ~ Jack Cust @('.')@

by monkeyball on Oct 4, 2007 9:57 AM PDT up reply actions  

good one, thanks for the info
On days like these I really miss "oaktoon".

by bigelephant on Oct 4, 2007 9:01 AM PDT reply actions  

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