A's Offense by Month

It can be dangerous to try to break down the numbers too much - most of us have a tendency to dismiss some numbers as anomalous, or think others represent a trend, when all we are seeing is statistical noise. Nonetheless, I thought it might be worthwhile to look at how the A's did on offense, both as individuals and as a group, on a month-by-month basis.

I used OPS here because it's readily available, and highly correlated with run scoring, and only included months where the individuals had a significant number of at-bats. Here are the numbers, followed by a few observations (no real analysis):

               Apr     May     June    July    Aug     Sept            Total
Barton                                                  1067            1067
Cust                    1022    970     757     1063    741             912
Buck            750     1098    808     713     907                     851
Swisher         919     1007    648     828     815     833             836
Bradley         786                                                     819
Hannahan                                        879     738             793
Ellis           724     601     906     661     785     951             777
Johnson                 982     684     571     772     758             767
Chavez          771     595     872     780                             752
Stewart         642     760     1005    736     615     764             739
Suzuki                                  573     776     692             735
Murphy                                          828     712             731
Piazza          705                     871     633     794             727
Scutaro         427     775     757     584     864     619             693
Crosby          586     779     505     584                             619
Davanon                                         604                     596
Walker          517                                                     580
Kotsay                          612     653                             575
Kendall         401     472     758     515                             542

Team            658     793     760     681     785     774             745

Runs/G          3.8     5       4.3     4       5.2     5.1             4.6
RA/G            3.6     4.1     4       5.3     5.3     5.8             4.7          
Record          12-13   14-13   15-13   9-18    17-12   9-17          76-86
 

• The league average was a .761 OPS, and 4.9 runs per game, and the A's actually did better than that in three of the six months - May, when Cust, Buck, Swisher and Johnson were on simultaneous tears, and August and September, when they finally got some of the deader lumber out of the lineup.
• On the flip side, April and July were total disasters, with four or five regulars hitting below the Davanon line each month and no one really picking up the slack. June was a disaster of a different sort, as the A's hit like an average team but failed to translate that into runs.
• Daric Barton's 1.067 OPS in the three weeks that he played is identical to what Alex Rodriguez (the major league leader) had over the full year. Of course, I don't expect Barton to duplicate that next year, but it's awfully hard not to be excited about his potential. Cust's .912 was tenth in the AL.
• As the A's scored more runs in the second half, they also allowed many more as well. This is unfortunately not entirely coincidence. The late-season changes - replacing an ailing Chavez with Hannahan, and Crosby with Scutaro and Murphy, moving Swisher to center field while getting Kotsay out of the lineup, and playing Cust frequently in right - all got better bats into the lineup at the expense of defense.
• The outlook for 2008 is, IMO, not so bad: Barton, Cust, Buck, and Swisher should provide a good core to the offense. None of them is likely to have an MVP-type year, but they don't need to either - as long as two or three are hitting well at any time, this team should score some runs. (Buck's ability to stay healthy has to be a real concern, though.) Ellis at 2B and Suzuki at C are decent complementary parts, and we should also be OK at 3B too with either Hannahan or a healthier Chavez. That leaves (as so many other diaries have already said) SS and CF. At SS, neither Scutaro nor Murphy did anything to win a full-time job - start writing those anti-Crosby rants now. For CF, I really hope Denorfia proves worthy of the two pitchers Beane gave up for the right to watch him rehab for the year - even marginal competence (offense and defense) would be better than what we got this year.