DLD -- PECOTA knows the A's

Devo's first ever link dump! It's a crappy one!

Jayson Stark votes for McGwire

That National Championship of College Football is tonight. Who do you think will win?

Brilliant sports journalist, Devin Lavelle presents an interesting look at PECOTA's successes and failings in picking 2006's outcome.

For the third year in a row, PECOTA has pegged the A's win total. It did a great job with the AL West, but had a so-so performance in the AL East and completely blew the Central. Okay, you're right, credit where credit's due -- it nailed the Royals suckitude.

It did a much better job with the NL.
The Padres exceeded expectations, thanks, almost entirely to Chris Young and Clay Hensley and the Mets had an easier time with the NL East than expected, but, otherwise it did well here.

Team PECOTA Wins Actual Wins Difference PythWins Difference
NYY 94 97 3 96 -2
Tor 79 87 8 86 -7
Bos 93 86 -7 81 12
Bal 77 70 -7 69 8
Tam 69 61 -8 65 4
Boston's injuries made this one a snoozer. Expect big things from Coco Crisp in 2007. I'm curious to see Toronto's 07 PECOTAs. Did it think their improvement was real or a fluke? It didn't do great work here, but then, comperatively speaking.

Min 84 96 12 93 -9
Det 83 95 12 96 -13
Chi 82 90 8 88 -6
Cle 88 78 -10 89 -1
Kan 61 62 1 61 0

No one saw the Tiggers coming (to that extent), so that can be forgiven and Liriano's quick ascent and huge years from, well, everyone played a big role in the Twinkies overperformance -- after adjusting for Liriano's loss, I expect them to fall off in '07. Cleveland ran into injuries and had some pitching woes, so that's understandable. Pretty much hit the nail on the head with KC. I guess that's a little something KC can hang their hat on, they exceeded someone's expectations. And then there's the White Sox. Kenny Williams is doing some good things these days.

Oak 93 93 0 0 85 8
Los 81 89 8 8 84 -3
Tex 80 80 0 0 86 -6
Sea 77 78 1 1 77 0

Well done. Jered Weaver played a huge role in Anaheim overperforming and Juan Rivera seemed to have stolen Jeter's bat in his breakout season.

NYM 88 97 9 91 -3
Phi 86 85 -1 86 0
Atl 85 79 -6 85 0
Fla 71 78 7 80 -9
WDC 70 71 1 69 1

Essentially the Mets' entire offense had a good year and Jose Reyes broke out. The Braves fell a little harder than expected and Florida had spunk. Good job, overall.

StL 86 83 -3 82 4
Hou 81 82 1 83 -2
Cin 78 80 2 76 2
Mil 84 75 -9 71 13
Pit 79 67 -12 70 9
Chi 85 66 -19 69 16

Okay, predicting a near .500 season for the 'rats is just flat out questionable. Chicago pretty much spent it's season where Jim Hendry spent his offseason, in intensive care. It did a good job predicting the division's mediocrity, even if it took a couple whiffs.

SDO 78 88 10 87 -9
LAD 87 88 1 88 -1
SFO 80 76 -4 76 4
Ari 77 76 -1 80 -3
Col 74 76 2 81 -7

A couple of breakout performances by young pitchers can do a lot in a crappy division. Except for San Diego, PECOTA pegged it.

I'd rate PECOTA's work a C+. It had a bit of a rough year in the Central, but overall put up decent numbers. Dump away!

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