DLD -- PECOTA knows the A's

by devo on Jan 7, 2007 10:34 PM PST

Devo's first ever link dump! It's a crappy one!

That National Championship of College Football is tonight. Who do you think will win?

Brilliant sports journalist, Devin Lavelle presents an interesting look at PECOTA's successes and failings in picking 2006's outcome.

For the third year in a row, PECOTA has pegged the A's win total. It did a great job with the AL West, but had a so-so performance in the AL East and completely blew the Central. Okay, you're right, credit where credit's due -- it nailed the Royals suckitude.

It did a much better job with the NL.
The Padres exceeded expectations, thanks, almost entirely to Chris Young and Clay Hensley and the Mets had an easier time with the NL East than expected, but, otherwise it did well here.

Team PECOTA Wins Actual Wins Difference PythWins Difference
NYY 94 97 3 96 -2
Tor 79 87 8 86 -7
Bos 93 86 -7 81 12
Bal 77 70 -7 69 8
Tam 69 61 -8 65 4
Boston's injuries made this one a snoozer. Expect big things from Coco Crisp in 2007. I'm curious to see Toronto's 07 PECOTAs. Did it think their improvement was real or a fluke? It didn't do great work here, but then, comperatively speaking.

Min 84 96 12 93 -9
Det 83 95 12 96 -13
Chi 82 90 8 88 -6
Cle 88 78 -10 89 -1
Kan 61 62 1 61 0

No one saw the Tiggers coming (to that extent), so that can be forgiven and Liriano's quick ascent and huge years from, well, everyone played a big role in the Twinkies overperformance -- after adjusting for Liriano's loss, I expect them to fall off in '07. Cleveland ran into injuries and had some pitching woes, so that's understandable. Pretty much hit the nail on the head with KC. I guess that's a little something KC can hang their hat on, they exceeded someone's expectations. And then there's the White Sox. Kenny Williams is doing some good things these days.

Oak 93 93 0 0 85 8
Los 81 89 8 8 84 -3
Tex 80 80 0 0 86 -6
Sea 77 78 1 1 77 0

Well done. Jered Weaver played a huge role in Anaheim overperforming and Juan Rivera seemed to have stolen Jeter's bat in his breakout season.

NYM 88 97 9 91 -3
Phi 86 85 -1 86 0
Atl 85 79 -6 85 0
Fla 71 78 7 80 -9
WDC 70 71 1 69 1

Essentially the Mets' entire offense had a good year and Jose Reyes broke out. The Braves fell a little harder than expected and Florida had spunk. Good job, overall.

StL 86 83 -3 82 4
Hou 81 82 1 83 -2
Cin 78 80 2 76 2
Mil 84 75 -9 71 13
Pit 79 67 -12 70 9
Chi 85 66 -19 69 16

Okay, predicting a near .500 season for the 'rats is just flat out questionable. Chicago pretty much spent it's season where Jim Hendry spent his offseason, in intensive care. It did a good job predicting the division's mediocrity, even if it took a couple whiffs.

SDO 78 88 10 87 -9
LAD 87 88 1 88 -1
SFO 80 76 -4 76 4
Ari 77 76 -1 80 -3
Col 74 76 2 81 -7

A couple of breakout performances by young pitchers can do a lot in a crappy division. Except for San Diego, PECOTA pegged it.

I'd rate PECOTA's work a C+. It had a bit of a rough year in the Central, but overall put up decent numbers. Dump away!

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Comments

two questions

how does PECOTA's projected W-L compare to the actual expected W-L based on Runs scored and allowed?

could that possibly be a better way to evaluate it? for example, it can't really be blamed for the indians ending up at -10 when based on their RS and RA, they should be +1 or so.

A's v Giants "is kind of like the difference between going to see the Ramones and going to see the Bee Gees. A's fans will go see the Ramones." -BB 07/27/05

by xbhaskarx on Jan 7, 2007 11:04 PM PST reply actions

Slightly better ...

It's a more FAIR way of evaluating it. But we wouldn't give your average ESPN "expert" that much slack, so we shouldn't give it to PECOTA.

Read my latest articles

by devo on Jan 8, 2007 9:21 AM PST up reply actions

Well, to be fair, there are

few preseason picks that target number of games won instead of order of finish. Since PECOTA is providing more information that a typical preseason expert, we'd do well to evaluate them with more information, too.

Stat Wonk Futurist

by salb918 on Jan 8, 2007 9:32 AM PST up reply actions

Fine ...

Stupid Sal, insisting that I do more work, frickin ... {mumbles indistinguishably)

The Pythag records are above as well. It closes the average miss from 5.8 to 5.5.

Read my latest articles

by devo on Jan 8, 2007 9:46 AM PST up reply actions

The pyth. wins

for the AL West looks pretty fishy to me as I glance over at the standings on the right....

by mikeA on Jan 8, 2007 9:53 AM PST up reply actions

Yeah, we got pretty lucky ...

I mean, not lucky ... we displayed a lot of heart and played the game the right way, with grit, determination and hustle that enabled us to overcome our inability to score more runs than the opposition.

Read my latest articles

by devo on Jan 8, 2007 10:09 AM PST up reply actions

What I meant is

you have the Angels with more pyth. wins than the A's despite scoring fewer runs and allowing more.

by mikeA on Jan 8, 2007 10:29 AM PST up reply actions

Which means we aren't pursuing Erstad

rather, he's drawn to us like a moth to a flame.

This guy is dead! We'll list him as day-to-day for possible reincarnation.

A's Medical Staff, 2006

by grover on Jan 8, 2007 5:46 PM PST up reply actions

<makes note>

"devo responds well to insouciant demands on his time"

Stat Wonk Futurist

by salb918 on Jan 8, 2007 10:07 AM PST up reply actions

Huh.

Practically nailed the Indians.

Stat Wonk Futurist

by salb918 on Jan 8, 2007 10:08 AM PST up reply actions

Comparing predictions

Here is a review of various predictions of the last few years, putting everyone on a common footing by using only the order of the division standings. PECOTA has done pretty well in the two years it has been included, beating the Las Vegas over-under line.

None of the forecasters with longer track records have been able to beat Vegas by a significant amount, though a few (the author's Diamond Mind simulations, Sports Illustrated, and a couple of individual writers) have been about as good.

In the stands the home crowd scatters For the turnstiles

by andeux on Jan 8, 2007 10:16 AM PST up reply actions

random observations

i think both in 05 and 06, the average baseball fan could have predicted that teams like the cubs and giants would have more injury problems than this seems to have projected. the dodges in 05 and red sox in 06 would have been harder to predict. can't old age or injury history be given greater consideration?

so it gets the a's right but the angels are +10, +12, +8 in the last three years: bummer.

the projections were off by a bit less than last year. 05 = 6 games, 06 = 5.77 games. the big problems seem to be the central divisions.
i decided to compare it to my own mediocre 06 predictions: i was off by 6.17 games so at least it beat me (although my AL west was just as good, 9 total games off).

A's v Giants "is kind of like the difference between going to see the Ramones and going to see the Bee Gees. A's fans will go see the Ramones." -BB 07/27/05

by xbhaskarx on Jan 7, 2007 11:39 PM PST reply actions

Did you write that Onion article, XB?

This is the best part:
"Strength, speed, and agility are just three of the qualities that the players on the team from your area lack. The players representing my area, on the other hand, have these traits in abundance."
-Brutal trash talk.

by notsellingjeans on Jan 7, 2007 11:49 PM PST up reply actions

i wish

A's v Giants "is kind of like the difference between going to see the Ramones and going to see the Bee Gees. A's fans will go see the Ramones." -BB 07/27/05

by xbhaskarx on Jan 7, 2007 11:51 PM PST up reply actions

NL central

you say it did a good job predicting the NL central's mediocrity. i disagree.
it did a good job predicting the NL west's mediocrity. it didn't do such a good job predicting the NL central's crappyness.

A's v Giants "is kind of like the difference between going to see the Ramones and going to see the Bee Gees. A's fans will go see the Ramones." -BB 07/27/05

by xbhaskarx on Jan 7, 2007 11:46 PM PST reply actions

I give it a pass on the Cubs ...

it did predict some injuries. It predicted that Wood and Prior would combine for 45 starts ... they made 9.

Derek Lee's injury also wasn't at all predictable.

Read my latest articles

by devo on Jan 8, 2007 9:41 AM PST up reply actions

Link Dump!...link dump!....link dump!

C'mon somebody! I'm too lazy today!

Stat Wonk Futurist

by salb918 on Jan 8, 2007 10:38 AM PST reply actions

Come on, Sal, do it!

I'm too busy to look for links, but the title of this DLD is giving me hives... ;)

"I mean, hey, if they're going to bring the A's to Fremont, you might as well bring a Hooters." ~ some guy

by Poppy on Jan 8, 2007 11:19 AM PST up reply actions

NASA found life on Mars

- and killed it

"San Jose A's of Fremont" is disgraceful

by ArakSOT on Jan 8, 2007 10:59 AM PST reply actions

Absurd headline

that strips all the conditionals and qualifiers out of a story whose first paragraph reads "Two NASA space probes that visited Mars 30 years ago may have found alien microbes on the Red Planet and inadvertently killed them, a scientist is theorizing" (emphasis mine).

Someone give that editor the sports beat.

"Even if you know the deck is stacked in your favor, you still have to have the discipline to trust the math and the cojones to go to the ATM." BB

by green star oakland on Jan 8, 2007 11:52 AM PST up reply actions

come on ...

have some fun

Read my latest articles

by devo on Jan 8, 2007 11:55 AM PST up reply actions

After my last review panel for them

I lost the ability to associate "fun" with NASA.

The agency is being destroyed by the removal of any scientific considerations from its policy-making processes, and that is a real shame given its extraordinary past successes (equally extraordinary past failures notwithstanding).

"Even if you know the deck is stacked in your favor, you still have to have the discipline to trust the math and the cojones to go to the ATM." BB

by green star oakland on Jan 8, 2007 12:13 PM PST up reply actions

Poster found fun on Blog

- and killed it

"San Jose A's of Fremont" is disgraceful

by ArakSOT on Jan 8, 2007 1:14 PM PST up reply actions

REPORT: ArakSOT kills funwrecker

Stat Wonk Futurist

by salb918 on Jan 8, 2007 1:17 PM PST up reply actions

REPORT: NASA find salb on Mars

looking for microscopic organisms...

"San Jose A's of Fremont" is disgraceful

by ArakSOT on Jan 8, 2007 2:25 PM PST up reply actions

- and kills it

:-(

Stat Wonk Futurist

by salb918 on Jan 8, 2007 2:27 PM PST up reply actions

At least they weren't looking for

microscopic organs... and found it.

This guy is dead! We'll list him as day-to-day for possible reincarnation.

A's Medical Staff, 2006

by grover on Jan 8, 2007 5:47 PM PST up reply actions

"Microbes On Verge Of Dying!"

Tortoni

by Ice Cream on Jan 8, 2007 11:55 AM PST up reply actions

How long

How long would it take us to get Larry Davis to Mars?

by apilgrim on Jan 8, 2007 11:59 AM PST up reply actions

If we launched him into the sun...

do you think he would break it?

"...sometimes I can't tell the difference between baseball and magic."- salb918 "Ellie plowed into him like an evil, pink unicorn."-ArakSOT

by McFood on Jan 8, 2007 3:37 PM PST up reply actions

No

He would just fail to properly treat any break that was already there.

I'd like to eat my lunch, but Billy just kicked me out of my office.

by BlameChannel53 on Jan 8, 2007 4:01 PM PST up reply actions

I Saw Billy Beane on TV

In a low-budget commercial for a local Ford dealership. Uggh. Does he really need the money that bad? Maybe he's the new Nathan's pitchman, too.

"Oakland has a way of bringing out the joy in the game." NYT, 9/22/06

by SportySpice @ Athletics Nation on Jan 8, 2007 11:15 AM PST reply actions

I've seen the Ford ads

He looks really uncomfortable in them... as he should... LOL

"I mean, hey, if they're going to bring the A's to Fremont, you might as well bring a Hooters." ~ some guy

by Poppy on Jan 8, 2007 11:16 AM PST up reply actions

What does Beane make as GM?

Does anyone know?

"Oakland has a way of bringing out the joy in the game." NYT, 9/22/06

by SportySpice @ Athletics Nation on Jan 8, 2007 11:22 AM PST up reply actions

Here's a

link.

by mikeA on Jan 8, 2007 11:27 AM PST up reply actions

Could be much worse

Billy could be crooning "This is Our Countryyyyyyy..."

"Ever get the feeling you've been cheated?" --Johnny Rotten

by FreeSeatUpgrade on Jan 8, 2007 11:25 AM PST up reply actions

<<<gaaaaaack>>>

"I mean, hey, if they're going to bring the A's to Fremont, you might as well bring a Hooters." ~ some guy

by Poppy on Jan 8, 2007 11:32 AM PST up reply actions

William Lamaar Cougar Lemoncamp...

"...sometimes I can't tell the difference between baseball and magic."- salb918 "Ellie plowed into him like an evil, pink unicorn."-ArakSOT

by McFood on Jan 8, 2007 3:40 PM PST up reply actions

Is it Coderoli Ford?

by mikeA on Jan 8, 2007 11:22 AM PST up reply actions

Lemurconkers!

"Come on, you douche bags, we're all on the same team!"

by Jennifer on Jan 8, 2007 11:24 AM PST up reply actions

Our ghostriding homeboys

get a lengthy mention on Nevius' blog.

I honestly didn't find that video very funny until the fourth time I watched it. Now I think it's hilarious.

Stat Wonk Futurist

by salb918 on Jan 8, 2007 11:50 AM PST reply actions

That story

was in Sunday's Chronicle as well.

In the stands the home crowd scatters For the turnstiles

by andeux on Jan 8, 2007 12:05 PM PST up reply actions

Wow.

How on earth did they embed the youtube video in the newspaper?

Stat Wonk Futurist

by salb918 on Jan 8, 2007 12:09 PM PST up reply actions

I'm not sure

but I think it involved nanotubes somehow.

In the stands the home crowd scatters For the turnstiles

by andeux on Jan 8, 2007 12:28 PM PST up reply actions

a series of tubes?

A's v Giants "is kind of like the difference between going to see the Ramones and going to see the Bee Gees. A's fans will go see the Ramones." -BB 07/27/05

by xbhaskarx on Jan 8, 2007 12:39 PM PST up reply actions

Hang on, I'm receiving an internet right now.

Stat Wonk Futurist

by salb918 on Jan 8, 2007 12:40 PM PST up reply actions

Nachotubes...

"...sometimes I can't tell the difference between baseball and magic."- salb918 "Ellie plowed into him like an evil, pink unicorn."-ArakSOT

by McFood on Jan 8, 2007 3:41 PM PST up reply actions

has this one been posted on here...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WOiWaTSypt4

A's v Giants "is kind of like the difference between going to see the Ramones and going to see the Bee Gees. A's fans will go see the Ramones." -BB 07/27/05

by xbhaskarx on Jan 8, 2007 12:18 PM PST up reply actions

Do the jerseys come with pocket protectors?

The intrepid geniuses who don the garb of the Caltech Beavers basketball team soundly crushed Bard College on Saturday, giving the school its first hoops win in 11 years. The triumph halted a 207 game losing streak.

Last year Sports Illustrated's Rick Reilly wrote a column of appreciation for the Caltech squad (subscription req'd), for their perseverance in the face of futility, as juxtaposed with their serious smarts. Some fun excerpts:

"We think too much," says Roy Dow, the Beavers' coach.
The team's best player, senior Jordan Carlson, who's a theoretical physics major, figures he does schoolwork 14 hours a day. What's so important at school? "Well," he says, "an interesting question we're studying now is how mass is generated in terms of quantum field theory." Oh, sure, the Kentucky players were discussing that the other day.
Not that Caltech doesn't have a rich athletic tradition. During halftime of the 1961 Rose Bowl thousands of kids in the Washington student section were duped into holding up flip cards that they thought would spell out HUSKIES but instead spelled caltech. At the 1984 Rose Bowl, Caltech students hacked into the scoreboard by remote and changed it to read Caltech 38, MIT 9.

And finally, though Caltech doesn't actually have cheerleaders, Reilly imagines this bit of courtside encouragement, which could also work for the Boston-based smarties among us:

Molecules, slide rules
Watt, ampere!
Fill that cylinder
With that sphere!

"Ever get the feeling you've been cheated?" --Johnny Rotten

by FreeSeatUpgrade on Jan 8, 2007 11:50 AM PST reply actions

CalTech was in my college's conference ...

Their futilities were not limited to basketball, as their athletic program tended to go 0 for the year.

I too applaud their efforts, though. In the interests of developing well rounded nerds, every student is required to play at least one season of a varsity sport, regardless of talent or athletic ability.

Read my latest articles

by devo on Jan 8, 2007 11:54 AM PST up reply actions

"well rounded nerds"

I think the point of requiring everybody to play a sport is to produce nerds that aren't, ahem, "well-rounded."

Stat Wonk Futurist

by salb918 on Jan 8, 2007 12:10 PM PST up reply actions

They wouldn't go for that cheer

The ball is definitely not a sphere (it's not even a ball) nor the hoop is not a cylinder.

by mikeA on Jan 8, 2007 11:58 AM PST up reply actions

How about this one?

Less sport specific...I could just hear it rolling through the halls of MIT:

Molecules, slide rules
Watt, amperes!
Love me some hot
Engineers!

"Ever get the feeling you've been cheated?" --Johnny Rotten

by FreeSeatUpgrade on Jan 8, 2007 12:04 PM PST up reply actions

Fill that cylinder with that sphere?

It was shown that quadrature of the circle was impossible; I'm not sure you can deform a cylinder to get a sphere. The relationship between a the height and radius of a cylinder and a sphere of equal volume is r_sphere = (0.75*r_cylinder^2*h)^(1/3)

I always forget which numbers/operations give you irrational numbers versus transcendental and what the difference is. If quadrature of the circle is impossible because pi is transcendental, then perhaps sphering of the cylinder is similarly impossible if fractional exponentiation give you transcendental numbers. Any math-folks want to weigh in on this?

Stat Wonk Futurist

by salb918 on Jan 8, 2007 12:00 PM PST up reply actions

Try these...

moth folks.

Tortoni

by Ice Cream on Jan 8, 2007 12:06 PM PST up reply actions

I don't know ...

but I think you're looking for more trancendence than can be achieved without {ahem}natural enhancements.

Read my latest articles

by devo on Jan 8, 2007 12:07 PM PST up reply actions

Constructible numbers

Since sal asked.
Transcendental numbers are those (necessarily irrational) numbers that aren't the root of any polynomial with integer coefficients. Constructible numbers are a subset of algebraic (non-transcendental) numbers, involving only quadratic polynomials.

I'm not sure why anyone would want to do a compass and straightedge construction of "cylindering the sphere," but as there are two parameters for the cylinder it looks like it could be done. (For example, if r_sphere = 1, r_cylinder = 1 and h=4/3 would work).

But returning to the real point:
I remember reading in Sports Illustrated sometime in the 1980's about a cheer they had at RPI along the lines of:
e to the x dy dx, e to the x dx
square root, cube root, cosine, sine
3.14159
Disintegrate 'em RPI

and I've since heard similar cheers credited to other techie schools.

In the stands the home crowd scatters For the turnstiles

by andeux on Jan 8, 2007 12:25 PM PST up reply actions

"since sal asked"

Like you wouldn't have proffered that explanation anyway.

Stat Wonk Futurist

by salb918 on Jan 8, 2007 12:32 PM PST up reply actions

cylindering the sphere

I preferred Gleaming the Cube.

Signatures? We don't need no stinking signatures.

by jubjub on Jan 8, 2007 12:55 PM PST up reply actions

Depends which way you go.

Given a sphere of radius r_sphere the trivial construction

r_cylinder = r_sphere
h = 4/3 r_sphere

works.

However, going the other way and defining

alpha = h/r_sphere

gives

r_sphere = (0.75 alpha)^1/3 r_cylinder

Fractional exponentiation gives at worst irrational numbers, since transcendental numbers are precisely those irrationals that are not roots of algebraic equations. Unfortunately cube (or higher) roots defy general construction, so if that is your criterion you're stuck.

"Even if you know the deck is stacked in your favor, you still have to have the discipline to trust the math and the cojones to go to the ATM." BB

by green star oakland on Jan 8, 2007 12:40 PM PST up reply actions

Riccardi says "no" to trading Rios

Riccardi isn't trading Rios
http://slam.canoe.ca/Slam/Baseball/MLB/Toronto/2007/01/08/3235781-sun.html

Makes sense. That rotation is 10 times better than the Met's rotation. I can understand the Blue Jays not making a move for a pitcher. The Met's though-no excuses, they need a pitcher.

by apilgrim on Jan 8, 2007 12:07 PM PST reply actions

Me too

Unless the Blue Jays were going to get an established top of the rotation pitcher, it just didn't make sense to trade Rios. He has too much upside and he is still cheap.

I'd like to eat my lunch, but Billy just kicked me out of my office.

by BlameChannel53 on Jan 8, 2007 12:25 PM PST up reply actions

In the AL East Ricci has stated the J's

rotation must be stronger through starter #5 to win that division. Lilly taking a walk hurt that strategy a lot.

With this exception Ricci's team is very competitive in that division for 2007. With strong starters in place for the #4 & #5 slots the J's may begin as favorites or co-favorites.

A month ago amid trades speculation Toronto media kept the heat on daily as to who what where when and how: regarding the new J's starter. At that time he was a bit incredulous that media could concieve of the trade process being that simple and basically replied they can expect it to go into the season for him to "get the pitcher they need".

Rios will go for pitching and Ricci will work it to the J's benefit, what does he gain by trading Rios before April?

by A s Eh on Jan 8, 2007 7:13 PM PST up reply actions

So this is where the cool kids eat lunch and dump

When do PECOTA 2007 predictions come out?

I'd say they did a pretty good job for '06 and I agree with Devo's analysis, except for expecting big things from Coco Crisp.

"...we don't score six, seven runs. We score three, four runs and play defense and pitch" - Eric Chavez

by pickinmachine on Jan 8, 2007 12:24 PM PST reply actions

Jan 15

Stat Wonk Futurist

by salb918 on Jan 8, 2007 12:25 PM PST up reply actions

Some guy named Sal

has part one of a two-part article detailing last year's inside-the-park home runs, with links to videos. Nice article, and lots of A's content, good and bad.

In the stands the home crowd scatters For the turnstiles

by andeux on Jan 8, 2007 12:27 PM PST reply actions

pre-emptive correction

I accidentally used "standard" distance to measure the length of the hits instead of "true" distance, so the lengths are corrected for altitude, wind speed, humidity, etc. My bad.

Stat Wonk Futurist

by salb918 on Jan 8, 2007 12:34 PM PST up reply actions

Pressure distance?

or are they corrected for temperature as well to give us density distance?

Huh. I always thought that baseball's version of a home run is the motherf---ing home run itself. -FJM

by oblique on Jan 8, 2007 4:12 PM PST up reply actions

Anyone else

get an email invitation to a series of Mark Teahan-themed events in Kansas?

by mikeA on Jan 8, 2007 1:51 PM PST reply actions

Indeed I did.

I thought it was because I was special...is everybody getting this spam?

Stat Wonk Futurist

by salb918 on Jan 8, 2007 1:55 PM PST up reply actions

Yep...

But I'm thinking about not going to any of them...

"I mean, hey, if they're going to bring the A's to Fremont, you might as well bring a Hooters." ~ some guy

by Poppy on Jan 8, 2007 1:55 PM PST up reply actions

Maybe we can get a group

discount on airfare and get a block of hotel rooms?

3:30-4:30 p.m. Meet & Greet at Central Mall - 9th

KSAL? WTF?

Stat Wonk Futurist

by salb918 on Jan 8, 2007 2:00 PM PST up reply actions

I dunno

The Junction City Noon Rotary Club sounds like a fun-loving bunch.

by mikeA on Jan 8, 2007 2:04 PM PST up reply actions

But...

I don't think "Rotary" and "Rotisserie" are the same thing.

"I mean, hey, if they're going to bring the A's to Fremont, you might as well bring a Hooters." ~ some guy

by Poppy on Jan 8, 2007 2:06 PM PST up reply actions

Will hen be served for tea?

"...sometimes I can't tell the difference between baseball and magic."- salb918 "Ellie plowed into him like an evil, pink unicorn."-ArakSOT

by McFood on Jan 8, 2007 4:11 PM PST up reply actions

And here I was...

thinking that I must have mistakenly signed up for a Teahen fan club.

Kettlecorn! Swishercorn!

by TurnTwo on Jan 8, 2007 4:23 PM PST up reply actions

They who smelt it dealt it.

Manhattan smells bad today, finally sympathize with New Jersey residents.

Stat Wonk Futurist

by salb918 on Jan 8, 2007 1:58 PM PST reply actions

Bloomberg urges calm/offers sage advice:

from sfgate article:

"It may just be an unpleasant smell," Bloomberg said. "Our suggestion is that people should do their best to ventilate areas, open their windows or turn on any fans until this gas passes."

by mikeA on Jan 8, 2007 2:03 PM PST up reply actions

That's

probably just the smell of the Jets and Giants returning to town.

In the stands the home crowd scatters For the turnstiles

by andeux on Jan 8, 2007 2:13 PM PST up reply actions

Clap clap clap

Well played.

by mikedaviswhereareyou on Jan 8, 2007 2:41 PM PST up reply actions

Infield problems solved

A's agree to terms with Antonio Pérez, and sign Lou Merloni to a minor league contract.

In the stands the home crowd scatters For the turnstiles

by andeux on Jan 8, 2007 6:34 PM PST reply actions

Nice ... Perez was the key to our offseason ...

Read my latest articles

by devo on Jan 8, 2007 6:51 PM PST up reply actions

The key, huh?

Someone should change the locks.

This guy is dead! We'll list him as day-to-day for possible reincarnation.

A's Medical Staff, 2006

by grover on Jan 8, 2007 7:26 PM PST up reply actions

Perez--the worst season ever?

Jayson Stark took a look at Perez's numbers just before the season ended, and made a compelling case that he might have had the worst or one of the very worst seasons ever. Basically, he had historic lows in BA, OPS, tons of ks, etc. He had to look back to teh 1800s for some comparable numbers.

"[Frank's] a big battler. He's the mother of battleships."

-Nick Swisher

by kaweahkaweah on Jan 8, 2007 7:34 PM PST up reply actions

Uh, we're chanting "Loooooou!"

Yes, that's right.

Stat Wonk Futurist

by salb918 on Jan 8, 2007 7:26 PM PST up reply actions

I think Troy Smith

is going to drop into the 2nd round of the NFL draft after this Fiesta bowl performance.

by apilgrim on Jan 8, 2007 8:24 PM PST reply actions

any GM who takes smith that high should be fired

and the #1 pick should be that WR from georgia tech, calvin johnson, but the raiders will take one of the two QBs...

A's v Giants "is kind of like the difference between going to see the Ramones and going to see the Bee Gees. A's fans will go see the Ramones." -BB 07/27/05

by xbhaskarx on Jan 8, 2007 9:23 PM PST up reply actions

History tells us

that Calvin Johnson will be taken by the Detroit Lions, who select a WR in the first round of every draft. Except for last year when they took Da Wreckin Ball Ernie Simms.

by apilgrim on Jan 9, 2007 12:33 AM PST up reply actions

Seriously, it's like he showed up for the

Fiesta Bowl a week late.

Read my latest articles

by devo on Jan 8, 2007 10:02 PM PST up reply actions

Dear Malcom Gladwell,

You're a good writer, but for crying out loud give it a rest with the stupid gimmicks. I was awash in unsynthesized information, but really what explains things is tipping points! Intuition is better than thinking things over! We can gain the insight into public policy we need from dogs! We think of everything as linearly distributed, but lots of things aren't! Zero tolerance bad! The revolutionary way of thinking about Enron is that it is a "mystery" rather than a "puzzle." Sure, everyone loves them, even Bill Simmons, who I generally like, and they make you tons of money. But they annoy the fuck out of me.

Also, you wrote the dumbest fucking article about basketball ever written while purporting to give Moneyball-style analysis.

Look what you've done. You've caused me to rant on a baseball blog to people most of whom I'm quite certain don't care about your stupid gimmicks which are barely tangentially related to the A's.

Dammit.

by mikeA on Jan 8, 2007 9:48 PM PST reply actions

i haven't read it yet

but is it even the dumbest thing gladwell has written on basketball?
i think a year or so ago, he posted some silly idea on his blog about building a successful basketball team by only drafting/signing/trading players who had attended 2-3 specific colleges.

A's v Giants "is kind of like the difference between going to see the Ramones and going to see the Bee Gees. A's fans will go see the Ramones." -BB 07/27/05

by xbhaskarx on Jan 8, 2007 10:00 PM PST up reply actions

well if Duke is one of those colleges ...

he may be on to something ...

Read my latest articles

by devo on Jan 8, 2007 10:03 PM PST up reply actions

no, it would still be stupid

you draft the best player available, or the best player available to fit the position the team is weakest in, not the best player available from duke.
sometimes that's jj redick.

so if you're a GM, and your teams sucks and you have the first pick b/c you follow gladwellball philosophy, you don't draft oden because he went to ohio state?

A's v Giants "is kind of like the difference between going to see the Ramones and going to see the Bee Gees. A's fans will go see the Ramones." -BB 07/27/05

by xbhaskarx on Jan 8, 2007 10:15 PM PST up reply actions

no, see ...

you don't understand -- Dukies are battle tested and know how to win. Coach K instills serious spleen in his teams.

Duke is notorious for not producing succesful NBA players.

Read my latest articles

by devo on Jan 8, 2007 10:19 PM PST up reply actions

You could

have fielded (field?) a better team of former Cal players than Dukies a few years ago, which is pretty pathetic for Duke.

by mikeA on Jan 8, 2007 10:27 PM PST up reply actions

well...

you're right, but it's not that terrible.
just in the b's you've got battier, boozer and brand.

A's v Giants "is kind of like the difference between going to see the Ramones and going to see the Bee Gees. A's fans will go see the Ramones." -BB 07/27/05

by xbhaskarx on Jan 8, 2007 10:33 PM PST up reply actions