Billy Beane AN Interview January 07 Edition Part III
Just in case you're visiting AN for the first time this week, you should read part one and part two of the exclusive AN Billy Beane interview before you go on. OK, done?
Now without further ado, my chat with Beane comes to a conclusion. Enjoy.
Blez: You brought this up yourself, but the upper levels of the A's farm system seem to be relatively bare in terms to top prospects outside of Buck and Barton. Are you happy with the state of the farm system right now as it's obviously been important to the A's success as a franchise?
Beane: We've graduated so many players the last 10 years. But I'd include Buck, Barton, Windsor and Suzuki in that as well. It's more than you think. We're used to naming seven, eight or nine guys. We forget about the guys that we're just brought up to get here. That's going to happen. It's hard to stay at a level where you're producing four big leaguers a year. Teams just don't do that. That being said, these next couple of drafts are going to be very important to us and we have a number of draft choices this year. We're all really looking forward to that.
Blez: Is the draft looking good this year?
Beane: It's supposed to be real good. Usually people around this time of year are saying, oh it's a terrible draft. All indications are that it's a young draft, but it's supposed to be very talented.
Blez: There have been different reports about what happened in the negotiations between you and Justin Smoak. Smoak's turned into a great prospect. Baseball America reported that he wanted $1 million and that you were offering $950,000. Was it ever really that close?
Beane: (Laughs) No, no. I'll try and give you the Reader's Digest answer. We never even made an offer to Justin. In fact, when we drafted him, we drafted him late. He was projected to go in the first or comp round. To his credit, he made it quite clear the amount of money that he was interested in signing for. We just said we'd draft the kid late just in case there was some point during the summer he changed his mind. Quite frankly, I'd spoken to him and he's a great kid. I know his coach a little bit at South Carolina and we at no point were trying to bribe him out of his scholarship because it's a great university. To put it plainly, we said we look forward to seeing you in three years, go out and have a great career. In fact, Justin and I had a conversation at one point even though he had a number that he wanted he was very committed to going to South Carolina and I congratulated him on that decision. We never even made an offer. That was total fiction. I can assure you that if we were between $950,000 and a million dollars we would've found a way to get it done. I was a proponent of the kid going to school. He was committed and he's a South Carolina kid. I think some of the college programs are a great developer of talent and I'm a big fan of these kids going and coming out three years later.
Blez: Does Erubiel Durazo have a good chance of being on the 2007 roster?
Beane: We'll see. I think it's all up in the air right now. Ruby had a great season in winter ball and was very productive when he was here. I think he enjoyed his time in Oakland and we enjoyed having him here as well. I think that's going to be better answered in the spring.
Blez: There have been a few different lists of the best GMs in baseball this year. ESPN.com conducted a poll of the fans and they chose you as the best GM and Dayn Perry recently named you the fourth best in baseball. Do you pay attention to those kinds of things and do they mean anything to you?
Beane: I think it's the kind of thing where you're only as good as your last year. They're more fun and humorous than anything.
Blez: The fans obviously seem to love you though.
Beane: (Laughs) Well that's the important thing, right? A real man of the people. This is a republic. They have new lists out every year, so it doesn't matter. But the truth is that it's never a bad thing when people appreciate what you do.
Blez: The stadium announcement was obviously huge news and while there is still a ton to get done, you referenced the A's being able to keep more of their homegrown stars finally. Assuming everything goes well and we're looking at a stadium possibly opening in 2011, when can fans anticipate the team starting to keep its stars?
Beane: Very good question because you don't necessarily have to be playing in that stadium to start anticipating. My personal feeling is once you start laying bricks and it's a matter of when it gets done, that's when your business plan gets more based around that stadium. That's why you really want to start building the thing so you can start planning for that. The clock is ticking on some guys here that you would probably like to keep around. But until you start to see bricks and mortar, you have to be careful in spending what you don't have yet.
Blez: Just because it can still potentially fall through?
Beane: Yeah, right. The date that will be important for me is when I see Lew (Wolff) with a hard hat and a shovel for the contrived photos and when they put that first brick in. That's when I'll say all right we can start planning long term here.
Blez: One of the things that makes me excited from a fan's perspective is the prospect of seeing you work with a bigger budget. How excited are you in thinking about the idea of having a bigger budget to work with?
Beane: It will be a lot more relaxing and we probably won't have to say "if" quite as much (laughs). I go back to what I said at the press conference. The ability to keep what you develop long term would be the best part about it. Instead of constantly waiting for the next guy to leave, and knowing that when you draft a kid out of college that he could possibly spend his whole career with you. Because for us, it's exhausting. We signed Loaiza last year because we knew we were going to lose Zito. You're almost doing moves in preparation for the exodus that's going to happen in two years. That does get exhausting. I don't mean literally.
Blez: I can imagine it would get a bit frustrating.
Beane: Yeah, and the one thing that we're the most proud of is that we've created expectations here. This organization has won a lot of games. I think we've been held to a higher standard of performance, which I'm very proud of. We have a sense of pride in putting a winner on the field. But it definitely gets more and more challenging every single year. It would be nice to go to Europe for a month and know that your team is in its mid-20s and locked in for the next five or six years.
Blez: One of the things that's become a mantra of yours is that you've always talked about people rooting for the name on the front of the jersey and not the name on the back. If the A's do start to keep stars for the duration of their careers, does that fundamentally change what an A's fan should root for? Or at least your message?
Beane: No. There are players that make a lot of money that are worth every penny. The tough thing we've had here is that there are some decisions that we can't make because of money. There's some that we would like to make if we had the money that would be good baseball decisions. For instance there are some players where we thought, we'd like to keep this guy, but we just don't have the resources to be able to do it. Ultimately, you like to combine the two where you have created a situation where, and it doesn't happen much in this game but if you have the revenues you do it, a guy starts his career and becomes one of the all-time great A's. You take a guy like Eric Chavez. At the end of his current contract he will have spent 12 years with the organization and at that point I expect Eric to maybe have 10 Gold Gloves. It would be nice for him to spend his entire career here. It'd be nice to create an entire generation of A's like they had back in the 70s where people always associate them with the A's. If you think of the last decade, we've had a lot of great people here, people aren't going to even associate them with this club because they've all gone onto other clubs. I do think that that's important for the history of the franchise. You had Hudson, Mulder and Zito here. And Barry just signed a seven-year deal. The length of that deal will carry him beyond his tenure here. It is important for a baseball team to have a history and associate themselves with players who are a part of that history. That's one thing this generation won't have. We will have accomplished a lot of success but we won't have created a history beyond winning on the field. I do think that's important.
Blez: Speaking of importance of history, will you be sad when the team leaves Oakland?
Beane: Well it would be more disheartening to not have them in the Bay Area. I view this whole East Bay as one area. I just think of this as a great thing. And the opportunity to remain in the East Bay is what's important. It would be more disappointing to have us not here at all.
Blez: One last question as it involves A's history. The Hall of Fame recently rejected Mark McGwire. Do you see him as a Hall of Famer?
Beane: It's not my vote and my opinion isn't a lot of value to anyone so it doesn't make a whole lot of sense to be giving it to anyone. He was a great teammate. He was a great player when I was here with him and that's for others to debate.
Blez: But if you had a vote, would you have voted for him?
Beane: I haven't talked to Mark since he left here in 97. It's been a long time. He was a great guy and great teammate. To have the conversation on the Hall of Fame, it's probably just not for me to give my opinion. Others are debating it enough, there's no sense for me chiming in there.
Blez: Thanks so much for your time today.
Beane: No problem Tyler, anything you need.
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Comments
WTF?
that smoak answer does not satisfy me at all.
"he made it quite clear the amount of money that he was interested in signing for."
so that part IS true.
"I was a proponent of the kid going to school."
"we at no point were trying to bribe him out of his scholarship because it's a great university."
???
is beane our GM or is he a guidance counselor?
"we said we look forward to seeing you in three years, go out and have a great career."
we look forward to seeing you get drafted by another team and having a great career.
by xbhaskarx on Jan 31, 2007 9:08 AM PST 0 recs
To me it was clear that Smoak
by Blez on
Jan 31, 2007 9:12 AM PST
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Then why draft him at all?
I agree with x, this Beane answer rings false.
by FreeSeatUpgrade on
Jan 31, 2007 9:27 AM PST
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Two reasons
by BlameChannel53 on
Jan 31, 2007 9:34 AM PST
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Exactly
It was a smart chance to take with a late pick.
by Blez on
Jan 31, 2007 9:49 AM PST
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I guess
by FreeSeatUpgrade on
Jan 31, 2007 10:05 AM PST
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Depends on your definition of waste
by BlameChannel53 on
Jan 31, 2007 10:12 AM PST
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that could be the case
by xbhaskarx on
Jan 31, 2007 10:19 AM PST
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Better to control his rights
by grover on
Jan 31, 2007 11:10 AM PST
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Not that You or I will do this
If a player such as Smoak gets injured come draft time, yet is productive during his tenure he may indeed slip into Beane's hands. Yeah, that's it another injured Athletic farmhand, but this time we'll take em before Crosby has an opportunity to procure bodily harm.
by Gerard on
Jan 31, 2007 11:40 AM PST
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Low Risk, high reward....
by norcalfan on
Jan 31, 2007 7:03 PM PST
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In case his beloved great aunt bessie
In case the University of South Carolina baseball team's coach turns out to actually be a catholic priest.
In case shit happens and that shit has greater odds of happening than the team finding a real prospect in the 16th round.
by devo on
Jan 31, 2007 9:40 AM PST
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what about the odds
by xbhaskarx on
Jan 31, 2007 9:44 AM PST
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A player is worth $X
by devo on
Jan 31, 2007 10:06 AM PST
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It's wise to pay 2X
I know it's early and the 2008 draft is 18 months away, but at the rate Smoak is going BA has already mentioned his name as the possible #1 overall pick in the 2008 draft. I'd give you a link but there isn't one that I know of. The mention is from the 2007 Prospect Handbook.
by grover on
Jan 31, 2007 11:08 AM PST
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Smoak is
By the way, was that the #1 player picked or the #1 non Pitcher picked that BA was saying?
by apilgrim on
Jan 31, 2007 11:23 AM PST
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ah overall
by apilgrim on
Jan 31, 2007 11:24 AM PST
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How can you be convinced he's
The A's took a chance drafting him late in case he decided he didn't want to go to school. It was a good risk in my opinion. He obviously wanted to go to school and the A's wound up getting a player who could potentially be joining the team this year instead. I'd say it was a good trade off. It was also a good move for Smoak as if he will be the first pick, he'll be getting a hell of a lot more than what he originally wanted.
by Blez on
Jan 31, 2007 11:29 AM PST
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Convinced?
So if Smoak does indeed go 1st overall in 2008, he'll be looking at a $4 million signing bonus. If X = $1 million and 4X = $4million.
I'm not saying Beane lied to you. He bent the truth of the matter. You and I both know the A's discussed signing terms with any and all potential early round targets, that's SOP. He wanted $1 million, the A's were only willing to go $950K.
by grover on
Jan 31, 2007 11:57 AM PST
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In 2008, the team potentially drafting him first
Whatever Smoak may have been asking for, whether it was a million or a billion, Beane, giving what the world knew about Smoak at the time, did not think he was worth it.
More so, the $950k is not what the A's were reported to have offered him after drafting him in the 16th round -- it was what they were talking about offering him if they picked him with the 36th pick.
We drafted someone else with that 36th pick, gave that someone else the ~$950k that is appropriate for such a pick and, all of a sudden, we were left with ~$950k less in the budget.
As Billy Beane said, it is preposterous to suggest that the deal fell apart over $50k. You find it offensive to suggest that Smoak may said something different publically and privately, yet you assumed that Beane is flat out lying about something that it's just laughable to think he was lying about. Come on, you're smarter than that, Grover.
by devo on
Jan 31, 2007 12:14 PM PST
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you're right, the deal fell apart over $950k
if anything changes after the move to fremont, i hope it's that. f*** rooting for the names on the back of the uniform instead of the front, and watching a player stay with the a's throughout their career. i don't even see how those are necessarily positive changes, it just means we're more likely to end up with todd helton / vernon wells type contracts.
i'll settle for "now we have enough money to draft actual first round talent in with our first round picks (moneyball draft) and to pay a 16th round pick first round pick money if we think he's a first round talent."
by xbhaskarx on
Jan 31, 2007 12:34 PM PST
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The bottom line
by andeux on
Jan 31, 2007 1:13 PM PST
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but the a's may have felt smoak was worth more
he was ranked 96th by BA, but the a's were most likely willing to take him 36th and give him $950k.
and the reason we didn't do so is probably because we're poor/cheap.
by xbhaskarx on
Jan 31, 2007 1:29 PM PST
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No, we didn't do it ...
Good for us, if we had a better read on Smoak than anyone else. It's hardly a fair criticism, though, to not realize that he was a no doubt future hall of famer, despite never having played against anyone over the age of 18.
by devo on
Jan 31, 2007 1:47 PM PST
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that's not what i meant
and we DID think he was worth $1 million as the 36th pick, so whether we liked buck more or whether he had played against anyone over 18 isn't really the issue, because we could have had both buck and smoak.
we had a better read on smoak than anyone else, and instead of spending the $1 million to magically turn a 16th round pick into an extra 36th pick (meaning, we'd have pennington, buck, and smoak), we chose not to make him an offer.
so, once again, we're too poor/cheap to spend $1 million for an extra 36th pick. i hope that changes once we move to fremont.
by xbhaskarx on
Jan 31, 2007 1:53 PM PST
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and that's the same reason
by xbhaskarx on
Jan 31, 2007 1:56 PM PST
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He should have read my articles on SMOAK!!
by saint on
Jan 31, 2007 3:55 PM PST
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I guarantee that if Boston knew he would
Beane missed a layup and that's that.
by saint on
Jan 31, 2007 3:55 PM PST
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Why are you throwing me batting practice, Devo?
by grover on
Jan 31, 2007 1:40 PM PST
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Hello again
"In 2008, the team potentially drafting him first
will be getting a much more certain product than what we selected in the 16th round."
Yes. Which is why'd he'd get even more money than he wanted in 2005. My original comment re: 4X wasn't specifically about Smoak, it was in response to your generic question about signing an unspecified player to a 2X sum. This hypothetical equation of yours doesn't really factor in to the discussion over Smoak, the difference between the two sides wasn't twice the offered amount.
In fact, I think it's about time you dropped the vague dollar amount arguement all together. Smoak has said $1 million. Beane did not acknowledge that specific number but he alluded to the figure by saying "To his credit, he made it quite clear the amount of money that he was interested in signing for." This was an ideal setting for Beane to state something along the line of what you've been saying, that Smoak was saying one thing in public and another in private. But Beane didn't go there, did he? We're talking about a $1 million signing bonus.
So, in essence, the deal did break down over the difference of $50K. The A's floated $950K. Smoak said no, he wanted a million. Meanwhile, another prospect the A's liked at #36 (Travis Buck) said yes to a $950K bonus. So Beane didn't even try to negotiate with Smoak, he just went to Plan B. (And who knows, maybe Buck was the original Plan A but I just like the symmetry of Plan B and Buck. Yeah, I know, I'm easily amused.)
Beane said he never made Smoak an offer and HE DIDN'T... not a FORMAL offer anyways. But you can be sure the two sides discussed dollar figures.
"More so, the $950k is not what the A's were reported to have offered him after drafting him in the 16th round -- it was what they were talking about offering him if they picked him with the 36th pick."
This is a completely irrelevant arguement, devo. Smoak's price was $1 million and it didn't matter if he was drafted at #36 or #236... his price was going to be the same. Smoak was going to South Carolina unless someone made him a millionaire. The A's weren't willing to match that price.
There is only one question left to answer... are the A's going to regret that decision? We'll find out soon enough.
by grover on
Jan 31, 2007 7:28 PM PST
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bending the truth
for example, in moneyball.
you're right, beane didn't lie. he just answered a question that no one was asking. i don't think any of us were wondering "did the a's ever make smoak a formal offer after drafting him?" but now we know the answer to that question.
by xbhaskarx on
Jan 31, 2007 12:15 PM PST
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Yeah
by BlameChannel53 on
Jan 31, 2007 1:10 PM PST
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yes, but have you depodestaed people like Beane?
by monkeyball on
Jan 31, 2007 1:49 PM PST
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"Deposedesta"
- To relieve a general manager of his duties from the LA Dodgers baseball club, esp. at the behest of local media. Colletti better win the NL West, or else he might get Deposedestad.
- ar. To ignore the wisdom of a grizzled scout at the behest of a bespectacled assistant general manager.
by salb918 on
Jan 31, 2007 1:59 PM PST
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"Deposedusty"
- To come to one's senses, realize that one's farm system is only capable of producing pitching prospects, and not retain a manager with a penchant for shredding young arms.
- To leak incorrect but potentially damaging sensitive information about a soon-to-be-ex-employee to the media in order to avoid being Deposedestaed oneself.
by monkeyball on
Jan 31, 2007 2:27 PM PST
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"Deposedersty"
- To sign an expensive mediocrity in centerfield after a career year to replace another expensive mediocrity in centerfield who was alos signed after a career year.
- To extend a contract offer to a rival player only to withdraw after the alcohol wears off.
by salb918 on
Jan 31, 2007 2:50 PM PST
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It's all clear to me:
He made a mistake and cleared it up with Cahill. We have to move on.
by saint on
Jan 31, 2007 3:52 PM PST
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Hmmm
Anybody want a van-popple tart?
by norcalfan on
Jan 31, 2007 7:07 PM PST
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possible #1 overall pick
once again: we look forward to seeing you get drafted by another team and having a great career.
by xbhaskarx on
Jan 31, 2007 12:26 PM PST
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You mean
by Salvatore on
Jan 31, 2007 1:58 PM PST
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what is a ridiculous sum of money?
beane doesn't contradict that number, and he says smoak "made it quite clear the amount of money that he was interested in signing for."
smoak was projected to go in the first round, obviously he's not going to sign for 16th round money, that would be idiotic.
if you draft him in the 16th round and sign him for $1 million, that's like having an extra first round pick.
how much money did we give to cliff pennington in that same draft?
by xbhaskarx on
Jan 31, 2007 9:33 AM PST
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Billy made it clear that they weren't $50,000
by Blez on
Jan 31, 2007 9:42 AM PST
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you're totally misinterpreting his comments, blez
what it does mean is that smoak was most likely asking for $1 million, and the a's were most likely offering $0, as in no offer was even made.
therefore $50k apart is total fiction, it's $1 million apart.
evidence for smoak $1 million:
"To his credit, he made it quite clear the amount of money that he was interested in signing for."
evidence for a's $0:
"We never even made an offer to Justin."
"We never even made an offer. That was total fiction."
by xbhaskarx on
Jan 31, 2007 9:49 AM PST
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I think it's pretty clear that if he was
by Blez on
Jan 31, 2007 9:58 AM PST
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not true
smoak slides in draft from first or second round to 16th round due to questions about signability.
after the draft: "I'll sign for one million dollars, and nothing less," Smoak says. "Right now I'm planning to follow my dreams to South Carolina and play for Ray Tanner." (actual quote)
by xbhaskarx on
Jan 31, 2007 10:10 AM PST
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well then someone is lying
We never even made an offer. That was total fiction. I can assure you that if we were between $950,000 and a million dollars we would've found a way to get it done."
When did this conversation take place? Was this after the 1 million comment or before. Is 1 million the number that he was "very committed" to according to Beane. If it was then hes saying we wouldve found a way to get it done.
Someone isnt telling the truth here.
by pickinmachine on
Jan 31, 2007 10:19 AM PST
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There is another possibility..
Is there anyone at South Carolina who looms large on the radar that might be steered towards us?
Probably not, but it's possible.
by Ozzz on
Jan 31, 2007 10:33 AM PST
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We have drafted a lot of South Carolina guys . . .
by BlameChannel53 on
Jan 31, 2007 10:35 AM PST
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i don't understand what you're saying here
by xbhaskarx on
Jan 31, 2007 10:34 AM PST
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someone is lying
by pickinmachine on
Jan 31, 2007 11:56 AM PST
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Beane said that if they were only $50 K
Regardless, the kid sounds like he was convinced he was going to school.
by Blez on
Jan 31, 2007 10:22 AM PST
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see BA article below
-smoak rejected it b/c he was planning on going to south carolina.
-smoak fell in the draft because everyone thought he was going to college.
-a's drafted smoak in the 16th round.
-smoak said he was happy going to south carolina, but that he'd sign with the a's for $1 million, no less.
-a's never made him an offer, so they were never $50k apart.
that doesn't contradict anything from the beane interview or the BA article.
by xbhaskarx on
Jan 31, 2007 10:30 AM PST
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I don't know
BA claims the A's were offering $950 K. That seems like a pretty clear contradiction to me.
by Blez on
Jan 31, 2007 10:38 AM PST
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i think he means after drafting him
"which was prepared to offer him $950,000 as the 36th overall pick"
by xbhaskarx on
Jan 31, 2007 10:46 AM PST
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I don't know
by Blez on
Jan 31, 2007 10:50 AM PST
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i agree
by xbhaskarx on
Jan 31, 2007 10:52 AM PST
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The A's may not have made an OFFER
It's no coincidence that the A's signed the 36th pick, Travis Buck, to a $950K signing bonus. That's (appearently) all they were willing to spend/had budgeted to spend on the 36th pick.
by grover on
Jan 31, 2007 11:04 AM PST
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You have to wonder...
Unfortunately, Beane sees himself in a lot of these Talented High School Baseball Players w/ college aspirations. Why bowl a kid over with BIG $$$ when in the end, it might not be in the best interest of both parties.
by Colorado Fan on
Jan 31, 2007 3:47 PM PST
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