Now's the time to look at the loss column

by Scottbass on Sep 6, 2006 12:53 AM PDT

When I was a kid going to the coliseum (late 80's-early 90's), I distinctly remember a conversation with my dad. "Son," he said, as we were discussing the standings late in the year, "Forget what the games behind says. This is the time of year to start looking at the loss column. That is of greater importance." I didn't really grasp it at the time, although I believed it to be gospel since it was coming from pops. And eventually I began to see the light the older I got.

Recent events have got me thinking about it again. I know it's rough seeing the A's only 5.5 up (although that is still pretty cool), given the circumstances, but look at the loss column. We're still 6 games up. For anyone that hasn't thought about that (which I'm sure is few as we have some very quick baseball minds on here) here's a basic rundown:

It's much easier for the A's to think that while it may be easy for the Angels to make up the five wins (as they are a winning team), they also know it would be difficult (but certainly not impossible) for them to lose the six more times (as they are also a winning team). Does that make sense? It's kind of late, so maybe I didn't explain it very well. I'm sure there is some type of fallacy that I probably walked into, but I started thinking about this when we were 8.5 up (9 in the loss column) and haven't noticed anyone else bring it up.

So, even though we lost and the Angels won again (damn AK, why couldn't he put down a friggin sac bunt?), at least that 1/2 game is on our side. I don't know if that means anything to you guys, but it matters to me.

GO A'S!!!!!

Poll

Being up in the loss column means

Nothing - dads don't know everything about baseball

0 votes

Something - it beats having that .5 game on their side

22 votes

Everything - the half game is huge, the season is over, and I've already made playoff plans

8 votes

30 votes | Poll has closed

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Comments

Loss Column

The extent to which loss column is more relevant than games behind is a function of how much the teams' expectation of winning a future game exceeds 50%.

Stretch your imagination enough to imagine that two teams in a pennant race suddenly transform themselves enough so that they each have a 98% chance of winning any game for the rest of the season. In that case, the team that is currently 74-72 has a significant advantage over the team that's 75-73, even though they're equal in games behind. That's because it has 16 more games to (probably) win, while the other team has only 14 more to (probably) win.

Obviously in real life the probability of winning is never so high, but to whatever extent it's better than even, the loss column matters a little bit more. Since in pennant races we're usually looking at teams that are playing well, the loss column matters more.

Turn it around and look at two teams that are mostly losing, then the advantage is the one with the better win column. If ever a division is so awful that all the teams have losing records, you'll want to watch the win column. Since teams are more likely to lose than win, it's better to have fewer games left in which to do it.

"...but we're also always open to hearing about other sandwiches if it can make our lunch better." -- Nico, channeling Billy Beane

by iglew on Sep 6, 2006 10:30 AM PDT reply actions