Playoff Rotation Discussion

by capper3 on Sep 26, 2006 11:02 PM PDT

Ok, now that this thing is on ice we can talk about the playoffs without pissing off the woofing gods. The rotation is set up naturally to go Zito, Haren, Esteban (Always think of Kill Bill 2), and Harden. I don't see Macha changing that up in the first round. Personally I'd like to see Harden pitch game 1 and maybe throw a side session on Friday instead of starting on Sunday, but that ain't gonna happen. Is it as obvious to everyone else as it seems to me that we are not going to win shit without Harden? Yes the other boys are good, but they don't have the lights out stuff that it takes to close out a series like Harden does. Anyways, that's not news on this site. Ok, discuss away.

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Deleted my diary and added mine to yours:

I've tossed and turned over how to formulate the A's post season pitching staff. Of course I couldn't put it into cyber print until right now. I think this might be the best idea:
Game 1 - Zito

You almost have to out of obligation. No one else has stood out enough to warrant pulling him from his "Ace" status. Though something doesn't give me confidence in slotting him here. This also falls in nicely with him pitching 80 pitches or less on Wed. or holding him back till Thursday for a short stint to put him in line for the Game 1 start

Game 2 - Haren

He has pitched terrible lately and it is a close call between him and Loaiza here, but I think Haren has more "upside" here. Had Loaiza pitched well on Tuesday I would have slotted him here. I think the rest might be enough to right Haren's ship. But again, I don't think this is clear cut and I am curious what you guys think of this

Game 3 - Harden

Especially after Tues. he has to start in this series. Blanton can be ready for long relief as well. Also by pitching him in Game three which is Friday would get him one more start on Sunday against the angels to stretch his arm out some more so he might be good for 100 pitches! Also, he could be in line to start game 1 of the ALCS.

Game 4 - Loaiza

Yes, a four man rotation. I think all four of them have made their cases for starting in the post season. He could be sharp, he might not be...

Game 5 - Zito

Hope it doesn't come to this...This is what makes me want to pitch Harden game 1 so he could go game 5...

by homerozzieandthestraw on Sep 26, 2006 11:04 PM PDT 0 recs

Thanks....

Yes, Zito will pitch games 1 and god forbid 5. I do not feel comfortable with that at all. But to be honest I think if Z can win game 1 we will not be having a game five. I like my chances of winning 2 of 3 with Harden being in one of those games. I guess this is stating the obvious, but game 1 wins the series for us.....I know, jinx.

"Don't you play the flute, Huddy?"

by capper3 on Sep 26, 2006 11:08 PM PDT up 0 recs

Well your post beat my post by about 45 seconds

by homerozzieandthestraw on Sep 26, 2006 11:13 PM PDT up 0 recs

Zito will start Game 1

I would also put Loaiza ahead of Haren. In the postseason that veteran pitching smarts will really be helpful.

by OaklandSi on Sep 26, 2006 11:04 PM PDT 0 recs

nooooooooooooooooooooo

game 1: harden w. a 95-100 pitch limit
game 2: zito
game 3: haren
game 4: loaiza
game 5: harden w. no pitch count

harden is our santana and the playoffs only come around every few years, he needs to pitch twice.

A's v Giants "is kind of like the difference between going to see the Ramones and going to see the Bee Gees. A's fans will go see the Ramones." -BB 07/27/05

by xbhaskarx on Sep 26, 2006 11:07 PM PDT 0 recs

My gut agrees with you

I just don't see how the A's don't put Zito first.

by homerozzieandthestraw on Sep 26, 2006 11:09 PM PDT up 0 recs

because WINNING

is more important than who has seniority and other bullshit, esp. when it comes to a pitcher who is gong to be GONE next year as opposed to our ace for the next four years.

evidence: mulder against the angels in 2004.

A's v Giants "is kind of like the difference between going to see the Ramones and going to see the Bee Gees. A's fans will go see the Ramones." -BB 07/27/05

by xbhaskarx on Sep 26, 2006 11:10 PM PDT up 0 recs

Like I said

I agree, but I don't think the A's will agree...

by homerozzieandthestraw on Sep 26, 2006 11:13 PM PDT up 0 recs

Zito

ZITO has had a pretty solid Post-Season Career.

Zito
Haren
Harden
Loaiza

COME ON, OAKLAND, COME ON!

by Colorado Fan on Sep 26, 2006 11:55 PM PDT up 0 recs

noooooooooooooooo

game 1: harden
game 2: harden
game 3: harden

games 4 and 5 won't be necessary.

All your base are belong to us - Zero Wing

by Suck My Moneyballs on Sep 26, 2006 11:18 PM PDT up 0 recs

exactly

A's v Giants "is kind of like the difference between going to see the Ramones and going to see the Bee Gees. A's fans will go see the Ramones." -BB 07/27/05

by xbhaskarx on Sep 26, 2006 11:24 PM PDT up 0 recs

Just not ready for Rich Game 1

after those two short starts. I think he needs a full start.
Zito(1) does concerrn me but I think Haren(2) is going to come back around. Then Rich and Loaiza

by As06 on Sep 26, 2006 11:23 PM PDT up 0 recs

not ready?

you need to take a look at his numbers from the last two starts.

and even at "not ready" he's better than any other starting pitcher we have.

A's v Giants "is kind of like the difference between going to see the Ramones and going to see the Bee Gees. A's fans will go see the Ramones." -BB 07/27/05

by xbhaskarx on Sep 26, 2006 11:25 PM PDT up 0 recs

Right but your looking at

8 innings.

by As06 on Sep 26, 2006 11:27 PM PDT up 0 recs

actually, we have

-harden's last 8 innings.
-all 7 harden starts in 2006.
-harden's entire 2005.

and although 8 innings may be a fairly small sample size, no other a's starting pitcher has done very well over their last 8 innings.

A's v Giants "is kind of like the difference between going to see the Ramones and going to see the Bee Gees. A's fans will go see the Ramones." -BB 07/27/05

by xbhaskarx on Sep 26, 2006 11:59 PM PDT up 0 recs

I know he's the ace

But one more high pitch count start could help him fine tune. He was good tonight but he was not that sharp.

by As06 on Sep 27, 2006 12:04 AM PDT up 0 recs

Compared to whom?

Zito? Harden may not have been sharp tonight? Who cares?

On Sunday, Minaya ticked off a list of candidates to join the rotation, and for once this season, none of them was Jose Lima.

by rfloh on Sep 27, 2006 12:20 AM PDT up 0 recs

start him in game 2 or game 4

In terms of "not ready" I think the key is pitch count. If we're going to start him, we need to give him another start to stretch out to 100 pitches so that he can realistically expect to go 6. He was only able to get 5 today despite pitching well -- if he even gives up a couple more hits, he's probably out in the 4th inning. You don't want that in Game 1, because if your best case scenario is 6 innings, it will kill your bullpen for Game 2.

Zito has a better chance of going deep in the game, I think, and the goal is always to win 3 games, not just the first game, so I would send him in Game 1. Harden is guaranteed a start anyway, and then the A's would have an off day after his start to travel back to Oakland, so they wouldn't have to worry about airing out the pen.

It should also be noted that his two starts were against the 3rd and 4th worst offenses in the league. He looked awesome against them, but the Tigers are a more respectable 6th.

I think having a healthy Harden is incredible, but strategically I think it makes the most sense to pitch him Game 2 or Game 4 because of the off days.

by sardonic on Sep 27, 2006 7:50 AM PDT up 0 recs

Agreed.

I hope they do it. Don't think they will.

Zito simply cannot be trusted with two starts.

by mikeA on Sep 27, 2006 12:07 AM PDT up 0 recs

If I were a fan our playoff opponent...

I would find it utterly insane not to pitch Harden twice. He is so much better than Zito, it is silly.

by mikeA on Sep 27, 2006 12:16 AM PDT up 0 recs

his postseason performance history

says otherwise

by OaklandSi on Sep 27, 2006 8:26 AM PDT up 0 recs

That was many moons...

and 5-6 mph ago.

by mikeA on Sep 27, 2006 9:25 AM PDT up 0 recs

Agreed...but they wont do it.

Zito will be out there for game 1.

Bring back Hammer.

by OaktownPower on Sep 27, 2006 12:13 AM PDT up 0 recs

Listen to us Billy!

by mikeA on Sep 27, 2006 12:17 AM PDT up 0 recs

4 man rotation

Definitely need to go to a 4 man rotation.

Since the 3 series format debuted in 95, guys who went on 3 days rest have a terrible record. Just look at our own team in 02 and 03.

by orangeman on Sep 26, 2006 11:33 PM PDT 0 recs

Sure....but Josh Beckett disagrees.

Bring back Hammer.

by OaktownPower on Sep 27, 2006 12:13 AM PDT up 0 recs

He's about the only one.

Even Santana has sucked on short rest in postseasons past. And I need not remind everyone how suddenly Zito ran out of gas in Game 5 of the 2003 series on short rest. Has to be a four-man rotation, no matter how it's filled out.

"The first night, we were right there," Bradley said. "All we needed was a couple of touchdowns, and we would have had them."

by jeepers on Sep 27, 2006 9:17 AM PDT up 0 recs

Harden seems to be in similar position as Beckett

was. Beckett had limited duty that year due to DL stints, and (thus?) had more stamina than any other pitcher in the postseason. Perhaps this is what to expect from Rich Harden? Before people start fearing for his health, remember that Rich was shelved much, much longer than Liriano--he wasn't rushed back like Francisco was.

by Baseball Equals Life on Sep 27, 2006 1:55 AM PDT 0 recs

2 more cents

zito
loaiza
harden
haren

Zito: You ever think about the space time continuum?
Huddy: Uh... no.

by mendelbob on Sep 27, 2006 2:22 AM PDT 0 recs

i think another good reason

for a Zito start in game 1 is to keep Harden on a solid routine. I know he was sharp with his pitches in his first start back after a huge lay off, but I think it would behoove the A's to keep him pitching every 5 days, not skipping a potential strength building start.

Assuming he were to start with a 90 pitch limit, a Harden start might also hamstring our bullpen for the next game. Now, I'm not saying Zito is a lock to go 8 innings, or even 6, but he will be available for around 30 more pitches than Harden. Just a thought.

"The future's like, who cares?" ~Eric Chavez

by rebus on Sep 27, 2006 2:34 AM PDT 0 recs

I'm wondering how much some opinions will change

when, not if, Haren puts together a very good start that shuts down the opponent. It may actually come in the regular season or it may come in the post season, but it will happen in 2006. Will he jump up the fan-provided rotation ladder at that time?

4 8 15 16 23 42

by LowcountryJoe on Sep 27, 2006 3:03 AM PDT 0 recs

haren

i think he's our second best pitcher after harden, he's a lot more ace-like at this point than zito.

A's v Giants "is kind of like the difference between going to see the Ramones and going to see the Bee Gees. A's fans will go see the Ramones." -BB 07/27/05

by xbhaskarx on Sep 27, 2006 6:50 AM PDT up 0 recs

I like Haren a lot

but he just isn't pitching very well right now -- the one start in Minnesota aside.
I think we go Zito, Harden, Haren, Loaiza.

VacaAsFan

by Vacafan on Sep 27, 2006 8:15 AM PDT up 0 recs

Book It

Zito
Haren
Loaiza
Harden

Zito is the obvious #1, to me. Harden is pitching the last day of the season to extend his pitch count so I'd suprised if hes anything but #4. Possibly they flip Haren/Loaiza maybe based on home/away numbers for each.

Gas to Chicago- $23.87 A's/White Sox Tix- $28 Watching the A's whipping the Sox in July 05'- Priceless

by WiscoFan on Sep 27, 2006 5:32 AM PDT 0 recs

2 Harden Starts = 2 Wins

www.myspace.com/roneal Proud to be an Athletic Supporter!

by signmebilly on Sep 27, 2006 6:48 AM PDT 0 recs

Maybe I'm being too optimistic

...but I think once that bell rings these guys will turn it up a notch.

Remember, Zito is the ONLY one of the big three who has pitched consistently well in the playoffs. I'm not sure he has had a bad start, even considering the Manny 3-run HR.

Haren, although lackluster recently, pitched very well in the 04 series, and although I'm not sure that means much, I have the more confidence in him at this point then Loaiza.

Harden for game three, with either Saarloos or Blanton hanging in the pen.

I think the situation will dictate who starts game 4. If the A's are up 2-1, I think you go with Loaiza, but if down 1-2, probably Zito on short rest.

And I think it's pointless to discuss whether Harden should have two starts because, knowing the A's, there is no way in hell they'd try that.

"A base hit would have been better, but the ground ball was just as good", Ray Fosse

by Alien on Sep 27, 2006 7:55 AM PDT 0 recs

Actually, Mulder has the best playoff stats

7 starts 2.34 ERA 3-4 Record

Surprised me too when I looked at it.

Hudson:

8 starts 3.97 ERA 1-3 Record

Zito:

5 starts 2.76 3-2 Record

though Zito was far better in his first two years than his last two years of playoffs.

Bottom line, me thinks, is that we better plan on scoring some runs, especially if we get the Twinkies.

But, dammit, we made the freakin' playoffs!!!!!!!!!

by DiegoSegui on Sep 27, 2006 8:24 AM PDT up 0 recs

Mulder was injured

and didn't pitch in two of the A's last four postseason appearances

by OaklandSi on Sep 27, 2006 8:27 AM PDT up 0 recs

I still blame Macha for that homer, too.

It was evident he was out of gas on short rest.

"The first night, we were right there," Bradley said. "All we needed was a couple of touchdowns, and we would have had them."

by jeepers on Sep 27, 2006 9:18 AM PDT up 0 recs

Here's the problem with Harden in Game 1

Assuming he's limited to 90 pitches, you're putting your bullpen behind the 8-ball for the second game. Harden throws a lot of pitches because of the strikeouts (last night notwithstanding), so six innings is the very best you can expect from him in a Game 1 start. Six innings, pace-wise, is exactly what he would have thrown last night, and last night was fairly optimal.

"The first night, we were right there," Bradley said. "All we needed was a couple of touchdowns, and we would have had them."

by jeepers on Sep 27, 2006 9:22 AM PDT 0 recs

My thoughts exactly

He also has a nack for the 25+ pitch 1st inning.

by Khmi on Sep 27, 2006 9:44 AM PDT up 0 recs

They're NOT going start Harden in Game 1

He's just come off a long stay on the DL and needs to stretch his arm out. That will happen Sunday. They also won't go to Zito on 3 days rest, even if they're down 1-2. Loaiza or Haren on full rest would be a better option. I'd like to see:

Zito
Loaiza
Harden
Haren

That sets you up for the ALCS, with the first three available for 2 starts apiece. They way he's been going, Haren doesn't warrant 2 starts.

The only problem with this rotation is that it puts Haren in a possible elimination game, so they could flip Loaiza and Haren.

by boilerdan on Sep 27, 2006 10:35 AM PDT 0 recs

I think it would be incredibly stupid

To start Harden on Sunday. If we get the Twins, I'd go with Zito against Santana game 1 followed by Harden and Haren and then decide whether to go with a four man (Loaiza) or a three depending on the results of the series (if we are up 2-1 I might go Loaiza, if down 2-1 I'd go back to Zito) and then be able to go Harden or Zito fior game 5 (or game 1 of the next series).
If we get the Tigers I'd be tempted to go with Harden game 1 against Rogers.

This is a game to be savored, not gulped. There's time to discuss everything between pitches or between innings. ~Bill Veeck

by Steve in Napa on Sep 27, 2006 11:37 AM PDT 0 recs