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Around SBN: Dog Football! Which Breeds Are Best Suited For The Gridiron?

Progression to the Margin?

The following text is taken from a book written by Todd Buchholz titled New Ideas from Dead Economists (from chapter VII "Alfred Marshall and the Marginalist Mind"):

...Imagine you are traveling through Europe.  You begin in Greece and have a splendid time.  On the way to Italy, you stop in Corfu, where you rent a moped [and admit to it?] and circle the charming island.  In Italy you enjoy Florence more than any place you have ever seen.  Your visit in Italy cost $800, but gave you thousands of dollars' worth of pleasure.  You reach Venice and then consider crossing the border into Austria.  Austria, you fear, will be disappointing compared to Italy.  You prefer calamari to Wiener schnitzel.  How to decide whether to go forward or go home?

First, consider Buckaroo Banzai's advice [an earlier reference in the author's chapter]: "No matter where you go - there you are."  You are now on the border of Austria.  Forget where you have been - the pleasure you had in Italy is irrelevant!  Marginalism declares that the past is behind you.  The issue is whether to step forward, and the starting point is where you are now.

Second, think of Henny Youngman's joke [again, an earlier reference from the author in the chapter].  What do you compare when choosing whether to go into Austria?  You ignore the past pleasure in Italy and ask, Will the benefits of going to Austria exceed the costs of going to Austria?  If a day in Austria will cost $50 and give you $75 worth of pleasure, go.  So what if in Italy the benefits outweighed the cost by tenfold?  The issue at hand is whether to go forward.  And you should go forward if the benefits outstrip the costs, even if they exceed by a lesser margin than before.

Third, remember the editor in Scoop [yet again, an earlier reference].  Up to what point do you continue moving forward?  You continue as long as the benefit of one step outweighs the cost of one step, until the marginal benefit equals the marginal cost.  When a $50 day in Austria gives you $50 of pleasure, you rest...

So, I'm not sure what this means in regards to which infielder a manager should give more playing time to.  I'm guessing that this is only relevant to deciding where to go from here based on whether your decision's expected benefit can surpass its expected cost.  Now, when it comes to making decisions based on playing time, all this crap - well, most at least - goes out the window and a determination has to be made as to who will provide the most benefit above cost [cost being, in this case, the loss of playing time of another player since salaries are going to be paid regardless].  And, well, if you as the decision maker expect infielder A will be of more benefit to the team by taking at least some playing time from infielders B and C, then you do so...even if B and C are generally regarded as better; and only if a benefit for doing so is expected [reiteration for effect].  But, be warned, fan[atic] A, B, and C will be critical of your every decision: for the fanatic really believes that s/he is a better decision maker than you...and believes this by a wide margin, too!    

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Interesting
What I get out of this: In short, play the best player.  That way, the cost of benching the worst ones won't effect you.  But there are so many ways to measure a player's worth.  If we look at our current IF possibilities, I think we see that Ellis is not a terrible choice.  Scutaro may be a better hitter than Ellis, but I believe everyone else (Perez, Jimenez), except maybe for Rouse, is a worse hitter (I know Rouse isn't on the team right now, but he's still an option).  And when it comes to defense, I dont think there is a question that Ellis is the best fielder.  Maybe I'm a little down on Jimenez, but that's only because I don't know anything about him.  But I believe that Ellis gives us the greatest benefit, and therefore benching Perez, Scutaro, and Jimenez costs us the least.
Still got Zito, baby.

by SLOtown on Aug 6, 2006 7:40 AM PDT reply actions  

So what you're saying is...
Scutaro should never play, because he isn't a good option.

:thumbup:

by chri5 on Aug 6, 2006 9:15 AM PDT reply actions  

i think that's what many have been saying
for about 2 1/2 years now...
A's v Giants "is kind of like the difference between going to see the Ramones and going to see the Bee Gees. A's fans will go see the Ramones." -BB 07/27/05

by xbhaskarx on Aug 6, 2006 9:17 AM PDT up reply actions  

Hey, now.
I feel much more confident with Ellis in the starting lineup than Scutaro.  Now, if Scutaro has hit a pitcher well and Ellis has struggled against him, I'd have no problem with Scutaro starting a game.  Same thing with late inning situations or pinch hitting.  Scutaro is a good utility guy, and I appreciate all his big hits, but he will never match Ellis' defense.  Scutaro is not a good option compared to Ellis.  Maybe Ellis needs a day off sometimes and Scutaro can get a start, but for the most part, Ellis should be the starting second baseman.
Doesn't Magic Johnson sound like a porno name?

by SLOtown on Aug 6, 2006 11:23 AM PDT up reply actions  

What does this
have to do with margarine? Misleading title. :-(

-Cindi.

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Aug 6, 2006 10:33 AM PDT reply actions  

Machanberg Uncertainty Principle
The act of replacing disturbs the replaced.

The A's assign a high cost to the lost playing time part of the equation.  Giving Perez two starts a week at Ellis' expense, or Melhuse two at Kendall's, might have a net positive effect.  But the A's add a "lost certainty" cost to this calculus:  the loss of JK's veteran fortitude, Ellis' reliable D, and overall predictability.  I'd suggest that Macha and Co. attach too high a value to those variables, which manifests itself as a strong tendency towards inertia.

"I don't want to 'Wear It.' It doesn't match my shoes." --Jennifer

by FreeSeatUpgrade on Aug 6, 2006 11:21 AM PDT reply actions  

machanberg
"Sure, it sounds screwy, but even Einstein says the guy's on to something."
A's v Giants "is kind of like the difference between going to see the Ramones and going to see the Bee Gees. A's fans will go see the Ramones." -BB 07/27/05

by xbhaskarx on Aug 6, 2006 11:27 AM PDT up reply actions  

At least we can all agree
That cat Perez is half dead.
"I don't want to 'Wear It.' It doesn't match my shoes." --Jennifer

by FreeSeatUpgrade on Aug 6, 2006 11:33 AM PDT up reply actions  

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