Simulator Says Odds with A's

by The Hypocrite on Aug 3, 2006 6:09 PM PDT Comment 13 comments

Take it for what it is, but Baseball Prospectus is projecting the A's as the most likely winner of the A.L. West.

They run the rest of the season 1 Million times a day and update the odds on a daily basis.

It's addictive to check it.

Current Odds:

Average wins by position in AL west: 87.2 83.6 80.6 76.6
AL West W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs
Athletics 57 51 .509 84.1 77.9 39.10082 .00877 39.10959
Angels 55 52 .542 82.8 79.2 27.62870 .00779 27.63649
Rangers 54 54 .549 82.5 79.5 26.44583 .00355 26.44939
Mariners 53 54 .491 78.6 83.4 6.82465 .00092 6.82557

In a close race, these odds change significantly with each win, so beware, it is a VERY addictive website.

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Thats the PECOTA version isn't it?

Cause since we have a negative run differential, its unlikely that we would win if they used our current ratio.

by Zonis on Aug 3, 2006 6:13 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Go look at the site

A's have taken the lead in both versions.

Thinks are looking up, slowly but surely.

by The Hypocrite on Aug 3, 2006 6:16 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

It isn't unlikely at all actually

We are in the lead on the other version too.

Check out the graph version on the season here:

http://hamesucken.com/ps_odds.html

Non PECOTA version.

Average wins by position in AL west: 87.0 83.5 80.5 76.7
AL West W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs
Athletics 57 51 .497 83.3 78.7 32.71622 .01148 32.72771
Angels 55 52 .542 83.0 79.0 30.91038 .01169 30.92207
Rangers 54 54 .549 82.6 79.4 28.46649 .00411 28.47060
Mariners 53 54 .494 78.8 83.2 7.90691 .00175 7.90866

I think PECOTA is a better method frankly. 108 games is not a big enough sample to take the run eifferential at face value.

Either way, we are on the rise. Rangers were favored at the all star break.

by The Hypocrite on Aug 3, 2006 6:15 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Either version suggests

that the AL West will be won by 84 wins. I seriously doubt that's the case, but then again didn't San Diego win last year with something like 81 wins?

I think it will take 91 wins this year.

by oaktownmario on Aug 3, 2006 6:35 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

No, the average win is 87 wins

Look at the top line.

The average A's total is 84 wins.

No team is a sure thing is one way to look at it.

All of them could get the 87 wins.

by The Hypocrite on Aug 3, 2006 6:37 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I see 87

but I must admit I'm a bit confused. It will take 87 wins to win the West, but none of the AL West teams are "projected" to get there? Then how do they decide who wins it? A coin toss? Or how bout Kendall v. Lackey in the Contender gym?

by oaktownmario on Aug 3, 2006 6:39 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

The Average winner in the million runs

Won 87 games.

No team AVERAGED 87 games over the million seasons. If they had, they would be projected to win at a much higher percentage.

by The Hypocrite on Aug 3, 2006 6:43 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

The point is that the A's have a leg up. That means something to me.

by The Hypocrite on Aug 3, 2006 6:56 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Is this the same simulator...

that predicted before the season that the A's would steamroll the west?

I miss Bill King :(

by gojohn10 on Aug 3, 2006 7:11 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

No, it didn't

It is based on actual season stats and couldn't be run before the season.

by The Hypocrite on Aug 3, 2006 7:22 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

got something from A's today

i received a gift of a 12 pack of tickets. because i got them i got papers to order play off and world series tickets. whoo hoo. now i need the money sent to me too lol

by smasfan on Aug 3, 2006 8:07 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs