You assemble the 2007 rotation (w/ poll question).
If you were in the General Manager's shoes this off-season, how would you shore up the 2007 starting rotation after assuming that Harden, Haren, Blanton, and Loaiza are still part of the rotation when your decision(s) are being made.
You could:
A) Take a dip into the free agent pool. Disclaimer: some of the pitchers buried 3/5ths of the way down on this link-provided list have option years that may be exercised. If a pitcher with a club held option is someone you would go after, then please state why you think that the current club wont exercise the option or, if it's likely that they would exercise the option, how do you plan to entice the current team into giving you the option rights on the player?
B) Resign Zito to a new contract. If this is your choice then please specify what you believe the terms of that contract will be.
C) Use another pitcher from within the organization to fill the remaining hole in the starting rotation. Please let us know who your candidate(s) would be and who do you feel the likely candidate will end up being and why? If you cannot decide on one player then please just narrow the choice down to two players.
D) The copout option. Such as :"I'd go with a four-man rotation and an extra deep pen!" or "That's some assumption that Harden is healthy and that Loaiza hasn't been thrown under someone's bus!" or "I've already blown up the rotation by trading so and so for [insert two to three of the best players from another team that haven't reached their five years of major league service].
Let's try and keep this positive without really tearing into each other's opinions. Here's an example of what I feel would be a positive exchange:
Me: I think I'd try to get the $9.5 million option year on Mark Buehrle by offering Kiko Calero to the Sox and the Sox, in turn, picking up some of Buehrle's contract and sending him our way. This gives the Athletics one more year to develop players (starting pitching) from within while keeping our starting pitching very competitive.Reply #1: The Sox don't think that highly of Buehrle after this season's disappointing performance [a link insert with reference to Sox's management not being inclined to resign Buehrle after this season]. Buehrle could probably be had for x number of dollars in the open FA market without giving away any of our players. Basically, the Sox aren't going to exercise his option.
Reply #2: It's going to take more than Calero! The Sox are still high on Buehrle and just might not let him go at all. In fact, the two sides are trying to hammer out a deal [insert link to contract discussions].
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Here's my rotation.......
Blanton
Harden(if healthy)
Loaiza
Randy Wolf
I think a one year $4 million guarantee with up to $4.5 million in incentives, and a club option for a year or two gets the deal done. It might seem a bit of a pricey guarantee, but I think Wolf is proving he's recovered from surgery.
I wish the Phills had fallen on their face over the last week, so we could have a shot at a waiver trade for Wolf now. As it is, I'd be content waiting until the offseason.
I'm not sure Wolf is a "Gillick kind of guy", so I'm not 100% sure Philly would re-sign him. I'm sure this late push isn't what Gillick wanted, it might make it harder in the eyes of the fans to make wholesale changes to the team.
The biggest question is Harden's health. I wouldn't even try to bring the guy back this year. As much as he might be able to help, I'd hate to risk him getting injured and being out for all of next year.
If Harden is not ready to go next year, I'd strongly consider Gaudin for the rotation. I think he has the most potential of any young SP candidate we have, outside of a full recovery by Meyer(which I think could still happen).
and the rotation is...
Harden
Loaiza
Blanton
Lilly
Here's why: Ted Lilly is for sure leaving Canada. He has already openly stated his preference to returning to the bay area, as his wife is going to grad school at Davis. A's have some money to shore up the rotation, Ted gets a 3/19, with a base of $5.5 for 07, $6.5 for 08 and a mutual option for 09, priced at $7. If we lose out on the bidding for him, I think we'll probe Mulder, Byung Hyung Kim and Randy Wolf. If none of those turn out, I'd expect Juan Dominguez, Dan Mayer and Kasuhito Tadano to battle it out for the 5 in spring training with our favorite spot starters, Captain Kirk and Ballsey Halsey
My hunches:
But I don't think that's the route the A's will go. I think they may put their money into keeping Frank Thomas and giving Duke an extension through his arby years. My predicted rotation:
Harden
Haren
Blanton
Loaiza
Gaudin
And then the A's might try to pick up a middle-reliever to replace Gaudin (assuming they punt Witasick as far as I hope they do) and/or Kennedy.
I agree, Nico
There is no chance Zito stays. He'll get too much elsewhere and wants to leave anyway. I just hope he ends up in the NL.
by peanut gallery on Aug 28, 2006 9:44 AM PDT up reply actions
Something tells me Zito winds up with the Mets...
Also, with the Yanks we have George Steinbrenner probably putting into his contract that he can't surf in the off-season, something the Mets will probably be a little leinient about.
As long as he doesn't go to the Angels. Although since starting pitching is their strength I don't think they will look toward him. The only way they would is if there's a chance in hell that he re-signs with us, therefore they would get in the bidding to weaken us, but everyone knows he's gone at the end of the year.
by gmoneymcg on Aug 28, 2006 10:38 AM PDT up reply actions
Steve Loaiza or Steve Gaudin?
Steve = Esteban?
by LowcountryJoe on Aug 28, 2006 8:55 AM PDT up reply actions
touche
nm
Option 'D', of course
Since 2001, no other pitcher has accumulated 20 or more quality starts in each season. Seriously, no one...not Clemens, Johnson Shilling, Martinez, or any of the usual suspects. Buehrle has done this, though! But this may be the first year that he does not (I believe he has 14 QS as I write this).
Providing the Sox have soured on Buehrle -- and I am not sure what his status is with the Sox management -- I think that his consistency is something this staff, my staff should go out and get.
by LowcountryJoe on Aug 28, 2006 9:12 AM PDT up reply actions
I don't see the A's
I also don't see
I don't think it's out of the spending realm
And like I had written to kick the diary off with, I think that you entice the Sox by willing to trade Calero -- getting some cash back in the exchange -- in order to make a deal happen.
by LowcountryJoe on Aug 28, 2006 9:36 AM PDT up reply actions
You're suggesting
Even if he wants to dump Buehrle, there would be a queue of teams willing to offer him better terms. $8
million is the going rate for innings eaters, and Buehrle at least until this year, has been better than that.
Zito gets $8mil this year
by dmac13 on Aug 28, 2006 1:00 PM PDT up reply actions
Because
Oh, and Scott Boras is his agent.
I think that was in response to Nico's...
by LowcountryJoe on Aug 28, 2006 1:10 PM PDT up reply actions
My bad!
No worries
by dmac13 on Aug 28, 2006 1:31 PM PDT up reply actions
sign Zito
-Convince Wolfe that he needs to pony up the cash for Zito for at least 3-4 more years. If we're talking 12 million-15 million per year, then so be it. Drop Payton and Kotsay and maybe even give Crosby the trade. Do whatever it takes to keep Zito as the ace for the rest of the decade. Hell, I think Zito should spend his entire career in Oakland. It is clear that his leadership has greatly helped the young staff, and is needed for the future starters. And even with a big salary, Zito will be easy to trade if necessary. So:
Zito
Harden
Haren
Blanton
Loaiza
we can't lose!
I hear a lot about how
Will the A's
I would try to trade Calero
I want to spend our money on offense
Point well taken!
The question here, in this thread, should be: "How do you fill the hole in the rotation for 2007?" And, judging by your reply, option "C" seems to cover it.
by LowcountryJoe on Aug 28, 2006 9:41 AM PDT up reply actions
Exactly my point.
We're a small market team
I'd go with:
Harden
Haren
Blanton
Loaiza
Windsor
Komine
with one of Windsor and Komine in the bullpen, waiting for Harden to get hurt or the other to struggle.
Mark Mulder might be an interesting reclaimation project for the bullpen, but I think his career might be over. Ted Lilly can go to the Giants, I don't really want him all too much.
And if I was going to spend some money, I might use it to improve our offense instead.
I would try to trade for Vernon Wells, David Dejesus or maybe even try to get Brad Wilkerson from Texas, hoping that he just had a bad year and that the bum shoulder was the problem.
I concur
by bzn5150 on Aug 28, 2006 2:31 PM PDT up reply actions
Gaudin
- Haren
- Harden
- Loaiza
- Blanton
- Gaudin
---------------------------------------------------------
On the offensive side of things:
- I think they should try to sign Julio Lugo or Alex Cora. Crosby can't stay healthy. Ellis' struggles at the plate aren't surprising. Scutaro isn't a shortstop.
- Frank Catalanotto would be a great platoon in LF w/ Bobby Kielty (assuming we can't sign Payton to a contract).
Got to have a lefty
But I digress. If he's gone then you'd need a lefty in the rotation. Not Buerhle -- too expensive -- and defintely not Lilly -- way too fragile mentally, which is wnhy Bill let him to go in the first place.
I'd give Joe Kennedy a shot.
by Peter in Montreal on Aug 28, 2006 11:07 AM PDT up reply actions
Lefty
I bet Kennedy walks after this season so he can start somewhere else.
by Colorado Fan on Aug 28, 2006 11:20 AM PDT up reply actions
i'm on board with that
harden
haren
loza
fat joe
and that baldheaded freak-gaudin
and spend some $$$ on the O.
by bigelephant on Aug 28, 2006 11:30 AM PDT up reply actions
I'm not that high on Gaudin
BB/K
Lately (last 2-3 months), and with more experience, I would fathom to guess that Gaudin's K/BB Ratio is a lot better than 0.97.
by Colorado Fan on Aug 28, 2006 12:29 PM PDT up reply actions
In my dream world:
Wood
Doug Davis
Haren
competition of Oliver Perez, Loaiza, Windsor, Komine, Gaudin, Meyer
This is all assuming we trade Blanton to the Pirates for Oliver Perez, others and we sign Kerry Wood and Doug Davis. Once that happens, I think this a great rotation. We gamble that Oliver finds his groove reunited with Jason and we have the depth to survive Harden and Wood's injuries.
Perez is a Met now.
Wow, you're right about Oliver
As for Doug Davis, I think you mean 2 good seasons (as many as Stebby!)! But if his price tag is less than 6 mil a year, I think he's a good deal. It's true both of his good seasons were in the NL, but I'll use the standard excuse: he's been playing for a bad team (no offense, Milwaukee) and he'll rise to the occasion.
The Big Question Mark
If only Jason Windsor can hone his best pitch - his changeup - into a major league quality "out pitch" while refining his secondary pitches, he would be the perfect candidate for the 5th starter spot. Best case scenario would be for him to be recalled in September and make a few sport starts where he could get some confidence at the major league level that he can carry over to next season (while being protected by an expanded roster).
A trade for a starting pitcher could always happen, as well. We might be able to package a few players for a decent starting pitcher. Dan Johnson is obviously on the block, especially if he gets a call-up in September and proves that he can still hit major league pitching. In a perfect world, I'd package Calero and DJ for Jake Westbrook (who is under contract, club option, for next year at $5.6 million). Westbrook is a groundball machine that would thrive with our stellar infield defense. The Indians could use a decent, cheap first baseman so that they can DH Hafner full time, while Calero would bring some stability back to the Cleveland bullpen.
That might be a lot to offer for Westbrook, but keep in mind that Swisher is our 1B for now and the future since he is better defensively than DJ and can actually hit left-handed pitching, AND that Calero is about to hit arbitration (aka EXPENSIVE), and with Gaudin emerging as a quality set-up guy, Kiko becomes expendable.
My 2007 rotation is thus:
1. Harden
2. Haren
3. Westbrook
4. Loaiza
5. Blanton
Not a bad thought.
I don't know...
They have Shoppach who plays a better C than Martinez and if they could play Martinez at first they lose his liability of keeping him at catcher.
Yeah, he looks like a pretty good value
by LowcountryJoe on Aug 28, 2006 1:19 PM PDT up reply actions
He does eat a lot
by bzn5150 on Aug 28, 2006 2:33 PM PDT up reply actions
What about Buehrle?
He's probably about as good as Zito, but he may be available for a smaller paycheck. He may also consider a short term deal so he can hit the FA market on a better year.
I think he'll get a Washburn deal
Seriously,
See this post for an explanation as to why I'd feel as though I got a great deal.
by LowcountryJoe on Aug 28, 2006 1:24 PM PDT up reply actions
Buerhle is the definition of inning eater.
The White Sox
I thought Doug Davis was a FA,
As for Gaudin's K/BB rate, I think one has to factor in strongly the fact that at 23, he is not pitching the way he can be expected to pitch next year. Harden, Haren, and Blanton are all examples of how the first 1/2 season doesn't really predict the next 1/2 season or following season. We're already seeing the maturing process with Gaudin, from April to August of this year.
Gaudin probably does need to add a changeup or splitter to be a good starter, but I'll bet that process already begun.
No Option...
http://mlbcontracts.blogspot.com/2005/01/milwaukee-brewers.html
Doug Davis p
2 year/$4.75M (2005-06), plus $0.4M in incentives
* 05:$2.05M, 06:$2.7M
* 2005 salary increases by $0.3M with 34 GS in 2004
* 2006 salary increases by $0.5M with 33 GS in 2005
* signed extension 7/04
* 1 year/$0.45M (2004) (minor-league contract)
* 1 year/$0.4275M (2003) 2/03
* 1 year/$0.31M (2002) 2/02
* ML service: 4.138
Looks like he is a FA after this season.

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