DLD Aug 18 2006: Remembrance of Things Moneyball
Moneyball was responsible for taking my casual interest in the A's to a whole new level of fandom. Googling Beane lead to AN, which led to a lot of time down the drain. So in honor of that book I present a few articles looking back.
Today Jeff Passan wrote a thoughtful article revisiting Moneyball and some of the draft highlights (including Swish, Cupcakes, and Teahen).
Michael Lewis himself wrote a fascinating follow-up article in the NYT following Stanley and Teahen and pondering the influence of steroids. Note the elegant photography from Tabitha Soren who is not only an MTV VJ (the way you stay "Senator" for life), but also Michael Lewis's wife.
A gorgeously detailed look at the draft by Gleeman at THT whose only fault is that it's from 2004.
Finally, another interesting retrospective by Jim Ryan.
In case you, like Joe Morgan, have never read the book, here is Apricot's brutally concise summary of the book.
- The A's spend a LOT less money than most other baseball teams, yet they are very successful.
- When you are "poor", you need to look for bargains and not take big risks.
- Often tracking things with numbers tells you things your eyes can't, because your eyes and guts can be fooled by great aesthetic appearance, small sample sizes, emotional attachment or buying into dominant or traditional ideas that have been accepted but never well tested.
- At the time, OBP and not striking out was undervalued. Since the main difference between OBP and the well-known AVG is walks, and walks were uncool and undervalued, the A's looked for players who walked a lot.
- The A's had a lot of early picks in the 2002 draft, but couldn't afford to sign all the top well-known players they could pick. So they picked Swisher and Blanton, and then picked players who most people hadn't considered. They were trying something different, figuring it couldn't be worse than the traditional way.
- High schoolers are riskier and relatively expensive (not WORSE), so they drafted college players.
- Scott Hatteberg makes great contact with the ball, but only the A's cared.
- Jeremy Brown had great stats, but no one else cared because he was "fat".
- Bradford had great numbers, but no one else cared because he was a crazy submariner.
- Beane played poorly but got a lot of chances because he was hot.
- As a GM, Beane threw a chair through a wall once.
- Youklis was the God of Walks (though apparently a jerk according to On The DL).
- Milo was crazy, and now is the God of Psychos.
- Notice the book does NOT say:
- scouts are always wrong
- numbers are always right
- Enron was good
- the A's way is the only way to win
- the 2002 draft is the best draft in history
- OBP will always be the best bargain
- defense is stupid
- the A's are the best team and will win the WS
- And I add my own very very brief retrospective:
- Beane's move to defense, starting pitcher depth, and "trouble" players shows that it really is about finding the undervalued and not some worship of walks. And the drafting of HS pitchers recently again shows that it's not a simple "never draft HS players" formula.
- The Red Sox won their WS using an utterly classic 2002-era Moneyball team (OBP, SLG, no smallball and pitch count). So Moneyball can win.
- The 2002 draft beyond Swish and Blanton seems pretty so-so. Everyone agreed on Swish and to a lesser extent on Blanton.
- Free market theory suggests that as information spreads, the inefficiencies that Beane exploits will disappear. That means that in a rational market, over time teams will mostly play as well as their payrolls. This is bad for the A's. Their window is closing now that the big boys (BoSox and Yanks) are using sabermetrics and Moneyball ideas. Luckily, the Angels are one of the more anti-Moneyball teams out there and the playoffs are still a crapshoot so if we can keep sneaking in we have a shot at making noise. I just hope the A's are still in the Bay Area if they win it all.
- That's all I've got right now. Feel free to add links about anything, not just Moneyball.
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Apricot, if this diary doesn't lead
apricot = ken lay
the lewis article is from april 2005, placing it in the august 18 2006 daily link dump is pretty shady...
also, it wasn't in the NYT, it was in the NYT Magazine.
I love this summary
I am a converted Yankee as a result of Moneyball. It is a good to see a rational summary of it as it continues to get blasted(most recently by Bill Simmons). Simmons is probably one of those 700 verbal 520 math guys who just doesn't get it. His astonishing exit in a math oriented "sport" like poker further heightens this hunch. His Memphis Grizzlies comparison is sloppy as they always get swept out of the playoffs. The A's at least come down to a bounce of the ball or critical decision in game 5.
The Moneyball draft will turnout to be a solid B+ if teahan turns into a premium 3rd baseman. Brown may also have a career as backup catcher if things break right. This is pretty impressive given that he wasn't on most GMs boards(a la Renaldo Balkman...Isiah's latest hunch). If you nail 3 quality big leaguers in a draft it is an excellent haul. Baseball drafts are graded on a different scale than NFL drafts.
Can we trade for Deanna?
Sal is coming up on arbitration, isn't he?
The Word: Or bitter sports journalists.
What if....
by jb on Aug 18, 2006 8:49 AM PDT up reply actions
If anything...
The Word: Or bitter sports journalists.
I'd probably make it through waivers
I was just about to add the article
"There's so much more to this game than just stats and OPS, PMS, whatever it's called," Bell said
Today is Roberto Clemente's birthday
thanks, J.P.!
Beane said Jays GM J.P. Ricciardi, his former assistant, telephoned and asked if he'd like to have Gaudin.
"I was the first person J.P. called," Beane said. "I told him, 'Yes, we have interest in him.' We liked Chad. They had a roster crunch after the signing of a player. It was not a matter of them not liking Chad."
From that article:
(emphasis mine)
Rich Harden is a guard in the Venezuelan league?
hmm, this isn't good
Well, then.
if you throw out
i ran an analysis
Fortunately, all the games count!
FIRE THE MARINERS NOW!!!
by gigglingone on Aug 18, 2006 10:04 AM PDT up reply actions
If I could get monkeys to fly out of my butt...
<paints "Passenger loading only" sign on left bun>
What an AWESOME DLD...
apricot,
I was actually thinking last night
More than 20 fans are going to notice
What's worse?
by peanut gallery on Aug 18, 2006 9:43 AM PDT up reply actions
ZING!
by franks a lot on Aug 18, 2006 10:04 AM PDT up reply actions
Fire Joe Morgan...
HILARIOUS.
That's hysterical!
Antonio Perez has reached his peak?!
The peak of bench sitting
The biggest question of the day is will Perez start one of the games today...
by franks a lot on Aug 18, 2006 10:05 AM PDT up reply actions
My favorite part
He walked down to the dugout railing and started giving him instructions.
Said LaMacchia: "I wanted to help the young kid, tell him not to try to pull everything, tell him to take what they gave him."
Said Ethier: "I thought he was just some crazy old man yelling at me from the stands."
I don't blame you, Andre.
Jeter is pissed
That was a really good article.
Classy.
by baseballgirl on Aug 18, 2006 9:52 AM PDT up reply actions
I actually hope ARod has a good series.
Now his defense is another story. But if I remember this correctly, he did switch from his preferred position to calm the ego of a lesser player.
Ever since leaving Seattle and taking
Everyone that bashes him for not being clutch is just begging to be labeled an idiot. Because they don't know what the hell they're talking about.
There, I said it. I'm an A-Rod fan. Even if he looks and talks like a priss.
salb...
Subject: Great article on Jeter/A-rod
[...]I'm obviously less than a Yankees fan, but I can't help but be completely sympathetic to A-rod for the beating he has taken this year from his home fans, and the New York media. He's a player in a different class than Jeter, yet that 'gritty', 'clutch', 'team-player' can't admit it, and it was awesome to FINALLY have an article that backed it up.
Just wanted to say that someone linked to your article on our page today, and we think it's fantastic.
Nice to see a real article written about the Yankees without mentioning the 'magical intestinal fortitude' that Jeter has and A-rod doesn't.
:) christy
thanks for the note. i love the internet -- somebody from all the way out in oakland can pick up something that a jersey guy wrote. i've jumped on a-rod plenty of times. but the guy is not solely responsible for every bad thing that happens to this team.
uh oh ... i shouldn't speak too soon, he's about to come up in the seventh with runners on base!
thanks again,
steve
by baseballgirl on Aug 18, 2006 12:55 PM PDT up reply actions
And let's see what he did in the 7th...
Or was that not clutch because the Yankees already led by two? :P
by FormerHuntsvilleStar on Aug 18, 2006 3:02 PM PDT up reply actions
are you serious?
i hate ESPN.
This is the problem with Connecticut..
Manny is a great hitter, but underappreciated? That is an absolute joke.
I was going to say
No way, dude!
Also, in their power rankings...
A-Rods month of august:
.317/.400/.533 with 12 RBI and 9 R in 16 games.
A la recherche du ballon d'argent perdu
My biggest gripe is that signability is competely ignored, giving the impression that the A's took what they believed to be the best 7 players available, which misses a huge point of that draft.
Re. Teahean specifically:
- he was not called "another Jason Giambi" as the opening line implies, but only the most likely draftee to be another JG if that draft included such a prospect (a pretty big if).
- the idea that he is becoming a stud now that he has escaped the A's straightjacket of pitch-selection is absurd. Its easy to write this now, while he is on a tear (and at a point where the Royal's season is long-dead), but this is the same player who was demoted to the minors earlier this season.
Finally, the whole craggy baseball men versus nerdy stats guys is just silly, and again Passan comments on this, and then goes on to do exactly that.
Lazy misleading writing, IMHO.
by green star oakland on Aug 18, 2006 9:30 AM PDT reply actions
when Passan tasted the madeleine soaked in tea
I agree with your critique of the Passan article (and I emphasized the signability aspect in my write-up since it's usually ignored). However, on the tragic spectrum of Moneyball pieces, Passan's was on the reasonable side, I thought.
And to wait this long to read the "book"
Joe Morgan?
Darn...
by franks a lot on Aug 18, 2006 10:07 AM PDT up reply actions
<gouges own eyes out>
SABERMETRICIANS DO NOT CLAIM THAT THERE IS NO CLUTCH. Their finding is that clutch hitting is generally not a repeatable, demonstrable skill; and that even if it is, it is too small a factor to be useful for strategic decision-making.
Let me sum it up for you this way:
I found myself trying
This guy was a Dodger fan. I asked him who on the A's he felt was most clutch, the player he least wanted to see in a late game situation.
He said Marco Scutaro.
I walked away.
Manny can't win it...
by franks a lot on Aug 18, 2006 10:08 AM PDT up reply actions
Moneyball
Nobody considers the 2004 Red Sox a "Moneyball" team because they had Manny Ramirez and David Ortiz instead of Scott Hatteberg and John Mabry! I find myself constantly explaining that Beane would LOVE guys like Ramirez and Ortiz. It's not that he doesn't want them, he just can't afford them. People just DO NOT understand this.
Perfect "Moneyball" Players include (coincidentally, the best in the game): Pujols, A-Rod, Ramirez, Ortiz, Hafner, etc.
And especially A-Rod, cause he's a choker, just like us!!!
Also, hard to say that the 2002 draft isn't so good for us. Any time you have two 1st round picks that both make the show and are productive or better, that's a success. The problem is that Beane set the bar so high with that draft and they hype was so intense, that it seemed like every player we picked had to be a superstar, like any team ever drafts more than one or two productive players.
a-rod
I have had that same dream
by Athletics Fan In London on Aug 18, 2006 10:03 AM PDT up reply actions
maybe when
Actually, we drafted THREE major leaguers
points taken
OMG!
Make it so.
Ortiz
Good call
A big 20/20 hindsight mistake that Beane made was back in winter of 2002-2003, when he signed Durazo (his holy grail) instead of the very available and very cheap Ortiz. Could have easily worked out the other way and Durazo could have become the star, but oh well. Sour grapes at this point.
But Ortiz was available for nothing then. And since Theo picked him up, I'm guessing that Billy also liked him. It's just that he liked Durazo more.
Damn.
Theo also picked up
Pitchers heart Brandon Buckley
But I'll never be able to look at Buckley the same way again, after this exchange between me & Mr. Poppy at the game last weekend...
Me (watching Buckley walk out to the bullpen before the game): "I wonder if Brandon Buckley really likes his job."
Mr. Poppy: "Why? What's wrong with it?"
Me: "Well, nothing's wrong with it, but he never gets to play in the game, because he's not really on the roster... and I always wonder how he feels about that."
Mr. Poppy: "He's the bullpen fluffer."
Do you think he has
ooooh, I want his job....
by gigglingone on Aug 18, 2006 10:03 AM PDT up reply actions
Not me.
Me neither too
When my dad taught me how to drive,
I was very, very fortunate...
lol
by gigglingone on Aug 18, 2006 10:53 AM PDT up reply actions
I'm going today
"No. It's Oakland."
Combine...
by franks a lot on Aug 18, 2006 10:20 AM PDT up reply actions
BEST HEADLINE EVER
a friend of mine just forwarded me that. Shows the mlb.com writers still have a sense of humor :)
Y'know what?
I would imagine so.
Game update:
It's sort of like plastic surgery
a pox on both their houses
I know. I don't like the Yankees, but I prefer
by theblackpearl on Aug 18, 2006 10:56 AM PDT up reply actions
Ha ha.
Sheehan's losing it
It doesn't make sense to dump a perennial overacheiver when he's at his peak? I must have died and gone to hell.
Hinke
Hinske is 28 this year,
Steve Phillips on the Evil Empire broadcast:
Ever heard of Brandon Webb?? Hmmmmm? What a joke that guy is.
TV Question - Today's Double Header (MLB EI)
- Any chance they show this game - First Game - to replace earlier rainout game?
- According to TiVO (Direct TV), Channel 743, MLB EI is scheduled for a 5:00 PM (PST) start time. Do they pick up the 1st game in progress (if necessary), or pick up 2nd Game when it starts?
Typically...
by FormerHuntsvilleStar on Aug 18, 2006 3:08 PM PDT up reply actions
The Devil Rays had that too.
Huston had to do it last year
<sigh> Damn, I think I'm in love.
"No. It's Oakland."
Bob Klapisch loves ESPN headline writers.
Just noticed
http://oakland.athletics.mlb.com/NASApp/mlb/oak/history/awards.jsp
No Chavy GG? No Street ROY?
Nice catch
No MaEl, Comeback Player of 2005?
btw...
I'll take the last one.
Oh, okay.
He'd be a natural if that was the case.
Our daily dose of PETA
I like puppy gyros on my pita.
Tired act.
I saw that one.
And when you lay down
by green star oakland on Aug 18, 2006 12:58 PM PDT up reply actions
You were brilliant in that.
Thank you.
good news for south bay people!
tv sked
Not according to the A's site
nope...
* Game 1: none * Game 2: FSN Bay Area
(unless something's changed?)
FSN's lineup has Bocro starting at SS, and batting
Or Cousin It.
by FormerHuntsvilleStar on Aug 18, 2006 3:11 PM PDT up reply actions
A Much-Different Remembrance of Moneyball
Previous to its publication, the A's had been a joy to follow, rewarding my unconditional love of the 90's-A's with the talent-overflowing '00 and '01 teams and the 20-game-win-streak of '02. But when the NYTimes excerpt was published with BB happily accepting credit for the team's success, I was a little bit turned off, and my feelings at the time were best been expressed by a certain RR. Days after the NYTimes Magazine published an excerpt of Moneyball, Ratto weighed in.
The danger for Beane in this piece, which is part of a book excerpt, is so painfully evident that it threatens to do for him what equally massive publicity did for Cincinnati general manager Jim Bowden when he traded for Ken Griffey in 2000 -- namely, make him a laughingstock to those baseball people who didn't actively dislike him.
Beane's singular curse, this profound appreciation for the sight of his own name, is not necessarily an impediment to victory, or even his future. If the A's win, after all . . . well, put it this way: Even with a story so complimentary that it should have been sung, the essential truth for them is that there are 162 days and nights of right now to make everyone seem brilliant.
(emphasis mine)
I don't ever remember deciding to dislike BB from now on, but looking back, that is the way things have shaken out. What's more, my own prejudice has permanently colored my own participation on this website, where the loyalty and admiration to BB inevitably stoke my own dislike. In other words, had I never found this site, I might have forgotten Moneyball and moved on. But as it is, I argue with BB fans constantly, and a part of me then roots against the A's, hoping the results will prove me right. That part of me then struggles with the A's fan part of me, the part of me that has rooted for no baseball team but the A's since 1984, when I went to my first game at age 7.
In summary, I suppose I ought to seek help. But I think it's noteworthy that Moneyball, while undeniably a good read, may have alienated some fans just as it won others over to the A's cause.
fascinating
I don't doubt that Moneyball turned many people off the A's. However, in my personal experience, the people it turns off have all been longstanding baseball fans. In contrast Moneyball caught the interest of a number of people who thought baseball was a waste of time, and they found the A's symbolic of something noble. And in some way, since I myself was both of those kinds of people, Moneyball caused huge fascinating confusion in my head.
"sports are
Also, playing Moneybutt is frustratingly difficult unless you have heroes and villains.
by rubin sierra on Aug 19, 2006 10:58 AM PDT up reply actions
Excellent summary, but....
"The A's spend less money than most other baseball teams." True. (In total payroll this year we're 21st out of 30.)
"The A's spend a LOT less money than some other baseball teams." True. (Yankees and Red Sox payrolls are obscenely high; Angels, White Sox, Mets and Dodgers also pay a heckuva lot more than we do.)
"The A's spend a LOT less money than most other baseball teams." False.

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