Off season trade
This is an idea I have been kicking around since last season. I know that most trade ideas surround players whose performances failed to met expectations, so most of the trade recommendations around here center around Jason Kendall, Bobby Keilty, Esteban Loiza, etc... Feeding this fire are salaries that not are justified by performance. But gains in the stock market are not made by selling low, they are made by reaosnable analysis of value, and recognizing overvalued commodities and selling them while their value is at its peak, and using the profit to purchase undervalued commodities.
We should trade Huston Street.
He is one of the young darlings of baseball. He suprised everyone last year by seizing the reigns of responsibilty and performing admirably. The baseball world has his name. He represented the country in the wold cup of baseball. He is seen as one of the rising stars.
His low era was not suported by his peripherals as being repeatable, though he looks to be solid in the future. A .200 BAA? That seems very low. A result, no doubt, of our defense and likley a little luck. I still contend that his strange delivery gives him an early advantage that will fade when batters get more used to it. He averages almost 3 walks per nine. That indicates a control problem that will catch up to him. Not that he will ever be, oh, billy Koch, but I see him settling in at a repeatable 3.2 era, which is low, but not irreplaceable.
He is a career closer. His workoad was high at UT, but not that of a starter. He has only thrown about 280 innings since he was 18. The ligaments in his shoulders, and the mucles in his arm are not built through inning after inning of long work. My guess is that too many high stress innings will erode his abilty to pitch effectively over time. Not that he will ever be bad, but I think he will likley tire a bit. Career starters who convert retain thier elite closer abilities longer than minor league releivers.
He is cheap, and could net us quite a return.
We have his replacement already. MoneyBall brought attention to Billy Beane's penchant for pitching the closer in the 8th inning, racking up saves for the second best reliever, driving up the market, and selling off that 9th innign reliever. Duke is our closer. He can pitch multiple innings. He can induce groundballs, and he can strike out batters. He is not affected by the pressure. He too is cheap. And sure, his back is a problem, but so was Keith Folke's and we offered him 32 million dollars to stay. If his back falls apart, we have Kiko Colero in place. I suspect Billy is already doing this. I have noticed that Huston plays a lot of games where it might be useful to rest him, when we have a 2-3 run lead. It seems we are aggresively racking up saves for the guy, even when proper usage patterns might incline a manager to sit him. Now, maybe Beane and Macha are really playing out LaRussas justification for the closer, and maybe they both have street in thier roto leaugues, but I wonder if someone is no driving up his off season price. If we were the Yankees, sure, hold on to him, and buy a great hitter also, but we are not, and we have to give to get.
In short, use this a point of discussion, but not only do I think it might be a good idea, I think that management is already considering it.
What do you think?
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"and maybe they both have street
They also have a new closer to be...Rich Harden. Look for his debut a couple of seasons and a few more stints on the DL.
I don't fault you for thinking outside the box,...
Remember, Moneyball, to paraphrase, is an ever-evolving group of coinciding philosophies. Just because closers are overvalued Monday doesn't mean they are on Tuesday.
Regardless, the way I look at it, having Huston Street for the next five years gives us one less thing to worry about. Additionally, other teams aren't going to give up close to what they would for a star closer as much as they would for a bona fide No. 1 starter. He's a keeper.
I agree that trading
Duke or Calero will be dealt soon, though, as they are about to get expensive. Remember, relievers are fungible and their performance is difficult to count on year to year. Better to trade too early than too late.
if a reliever is gutty ...
oh. my. god.
This reminds me of my college days.
And every time, just before the flowers all opened up into full bloom, the grounds keepers would plow them under and start the process over again.
Many people on this site are the same way with players and trades, and it's just as frustrating!
I was thinking the same thing
If this season has taught me
I think it will be a while before "3 frontline relievers" are overvalued, because I think having that kind of trio is incredibly valuable.
Who would you rather have
Interesting
Now Harden on the other hand, once he can show his arm is healthy, would be a much better trade-piece candidate. You may flame me for even suggesting it but really dig through his game logs before you do it -- he hasn't shown to be consistent enough to warrant all of the positive attention that's paid to him. Even though he is a really young starter, I believe the pundits and fans are overly enamored with his 'stuff' rather than focusing on his actual effectiveness.
its called a sophmore slump
by greekpride08 @ Athletics Nation on Aug 16, 2006 11:00 AM PDT reply actions
Additon By Subtraction
The trade should be for the removal of the contracts of Witasick/Sauerbeck/Kennedy etc. The money saved can be used for keeping these guys together. Look at how the Angels bullpen has digressed duye to loss of depth. If we shorten games to 6 innings for our starters, then we'll continue to negate our offensive difficulties given our stellar defense.
nice, concise post
Also...
Rotation:
Haren
Harden
Blanton
Loaiza
??
Bullpen:
Street
Duke
Calero
Saarloos
Halsey
Windsor
Komine
Casilla
Personally, I think you move Duke back to the rotation -- is there a doubt in anyone's mind that he couldn't put up a 3.75 ERA as a starter??
Duke's Back.
Although I'm sure Duke would like to start, I think it's VERY unlikely his back could hold up under the stress. Also, we want to keep his back in good shape becasue we saw what happened to Bradford when he had back surgery. The minute Duke's back gets bad enough to the point he needs surgery his carear is most likely over.
Now Beane has said that Gaudin has the best arm on the team for someone not named Rich Harden, if anyone in the pen starts next year it will be Gaudin.
by Threepwood XX on Aug 16, 2006 12:51 PM PDT up reply actions
Chad Gaudin
Gaudin would probably win.
by Colorado Fan on Aug 17, 2006 5:55 PM PDT up reply actions
This idea makes no sense
This "9th inning closers are overpaid and not that important" argument is a joke. Teams that pay their closers well have one thing in common- they're all winners with a shot at the post season. Teams that have a bullpen that consist mainly of a closer, two righty setup and two lefty setup pitchers are well rounded and very effective.
Beane trades two of his closers: Taylor and Koch and some people want to make this out to be some type of great scheme or grand idea. Meanwhile Beane also wanted to sign Izzy and Folke long term and Folke rarely sees a meaningful inning @ 8 million per ine Boston.
Beane has made some great decisions and some terrible ones (anyone see Bonderman pitch lately???). I seriously doubt "he is already thinking about trading" Street. That would be stupid.
probably nothing and no one is
That said, good cheap young players under A's control for years who are only going to get better in the next few years are the ones the team will want to keep.
No one is untouchable...
We have proven this year that a great bullpen (which must contain Street and Duke) can make up for a ton of other deficiencies...
by dhannonpdx on Aug 16, 2006 12:18 PM PDT reply actions
Wow... I actually like this idea
I'd trade him if the A's can either get back a star with the trading away team covering a lot of salary. I wouldn't let him go without getting an All Star in return.
by bzn5150 on Aug 16, 2006 1:03 PM PDT reply actions
tell us why...
I agree
by speedracer on Aug 16, 2006 1:17 PM PDT up reply actions
I read a chapter in BP's "Baseball
The Angels used K-Rod as a 6th, 7th, 8th inning reliever in '02 with much success while allowing the "closer" Percival to maintain the formal role.
I'm not saying trade Street, but I do think the ace of the bullpen should be used at the (estimated) critical point earlier in the contest. I proposed as making Rich Harden that guy, in hopes it would prevent injury while maintaining Win Exp.
I think the answer lies
BUT...not all innings are equal. Most pitchers who can be highly effective in the 7th/8th are NOT as effective in the 9th. Arthur Rhodes and LaTroy Hawkins are couple of the more recent examples.
My conclusion: Conventional Wisdom--using your closer at the end--is right 95% of the time. The really good manager would use the closer at the end of the game almost all the time, but would identify that other 5% and not be afraid to stray from the CW.
I agree that you need someone
The pressure-thing can work against the opposing team, as they start to press at the end of the game and the odds of winning the game are significantly reduced wrt 6th, 7th, or 8th innings. That was the big point in the BP chapter.
I agree with
uh
Look, no one doubts the man is good, and that he provides a valuable service to this team. I suffered from heart attack after heart attack when we ran Billy Koch out there for a year. But the fact is that if Huston had the same numbers, but pitched the 8th inning, teams would give up less talent for him. Well, its not a fact, but I think that would be the case. Duke was amazingly consistent and effective last year, and yet I doubt that we could have gotten much for him since he was a reliever and not a closer (notable excpetion of the Cincinnatti Reds who would have given us their entire roster it appears).
Closers are very valuable. They help teams go to championships. But so do hitters, and we have a good pullpen, but we need 4 outs to drive anyone home on a consitent basis. I asked myself who on the team would fetch the most, and cost us the least in dropoff to replace. THe answer, to me, is Huston.
by mikedaviswhereareyou on Aug 16, 2006 1:28 PM PDT up reply actions
Perception
I felt that way about Joe Blanton, meaning that he is perceived better that he actually is, and that we should get someone who is actually comparable to Blanton's perceived value.
The main problem is that Blanton and Street are both cheap, meaning we would have to get young, promising pitching talent in return, and we all know the path that Dan Meyer is currently taking.
Closers are highly over rated because...
Look around the league and you'll see the same kind of thing. Find someone that has some nasty stuff, either a big heater or a loopy curveball, and they can be effective for one inning the majority of the time. So a closer's true value over a replacement player is over stated by the stats. Hence, closers are over rated and over paid.
I hope and pray that Oakland never, EVER has a closer that they pay more than $1.5 million a year to. That is a waste of money.
I relate it to golf. Every body makes a big deal about how far and how straight you hitter your driver off a tee. But wait... driving is at best only 25% of your hits in golf. 50% of your shots are with your irons. And another 25% are with your putter. So by that rationale, if you are unbelievable with your irons... then you've got half your game in order.
Here's my point... in a 162 game season, there are usually only 40 to 50 one or two run games, where the closer really matters (if that!). The other 110 to 120 games... the starter matters most. And the middle relief soak up one to two innings as well. So middle relief is essentially just as valuable as the closer. So think of the starter as your irons, the middle relief as your driver and the closer as your putter.
But I digress... my point is this... in one inning, generally all that a closer pitches, the difference between the best closer in the league and someone in the middle of the pack is not great enough to warrant a multiple million dollar difference in salary. Better to spend the extra money on a starter (or on a hitter!) than to waste it on a closer.
But hey, I'm sure some numbers jockey can set me straight with VORP stats and other fun facts.
by bzn5150 on Aug 17, 2006 6:58 AM PDT up reply actions
wow
I totally agree with the person who made the garden flowers analogy some posts before. Let the team play for a few years with most of it's key players. Make adjustments, but dont tear it in half the minute someone has some success.
And I am not sure how many more Dan Harens there are out there to be traded for. Why would you even risk it? Keep street while he's affordable.
by speedracer on Aug 16, 2006 1:15 PM PDT reply actions
The best way to acquire
agree 100%
by speedracer on Aug 16, 2006 1:36 PM PDT up reply actions
I partially agree...
by bzn5150 on Aug 17, 2006 6:59 AM PDT up reply actions
also
by speedracer on Aug 16, 2006 1:25 PM PDT reply actions
I don't think closers are highly overrated
Harden, Haren, Blanton, Loaiza, (Sarloos,Windsor,Komine, Halsey, Gaudin as the 5th guy)
Now I'm fine with one out of Sarloos, Windsor, Komine, Halsey, Gaudin in the rotation. Not two. But now if Rich gets injured like the last two seasons we have a very weak rotation. We're really starting to depend on Rich's health to have a good season. If you want have a deep rotation, there's only Street-Calero-Duke that can net something really good(though I would more trade Calero or Duke).
Lest ye forget how valuable closers are,,,,
by Imaseasonticketholder on Aug 16, 2006 5:28 PM PDT reply actions
My only concern
I believe he is being overused, and that scares me.
by china bob on Aug 16, 2006 10:46 PM PDT reply actions
it is tempting...
Bullpen woes
by doublehustle22 on Aug 16, 2006 11:18 PM PDT reply actions
I think the look at Rhodes argument is tired
It's almost impossible to argue that closers are not overvalued. Top-notch closers make roughly the same amount of money as top-notch starters, while working one-half to one-third of the innings. Someone smarter than me can probably make this argument clearly using Win Exp and Win Shares.
At some point the A's are going to have to address some holes. Personally, I think the most pressing holes are on offense. Sure, the key to our teams success this year has been the bullpen, but that's mainly because we don't score many runs. If we had a legitimate hitter in the OF, or Catcher, or 2B, or SS, plus we're going to need a DH soon. The only help I see on the way is maybe Barton or Buck. Of the two, I have high hopes for Buck, but I'm not sure that Barton will really hit enough to be a force at either First or DH.
Street could bring us an impact bat. Would anyone in here at AN hate a Street for Carl Crawford trade? I'm not saying for sure that Tampa would do that deal, but there are other teams out there with a lot of hitting talent, but no closers (Arizona, Cleveland, and Milwaukee come to mind).
I don't love the idea of Duke as a closer. He just doesn't have the kind of stuff that you associate with a closer, but he seems like he could handle the duties. Personally, I see Gaudin as a potential lights our closer. I'm still holding out hope for Casilla. Maybe Italiano in a year or two. We seem to be in a position where we can afford to lose Huston and replace him internally, so I wouldn't be against moving him to fill a hole (offense, maybe starting pitching), which we don't appear to have an in-house answer for.
Damn typo!!
I think it's a good idea and good analysis
But more generally, yes, I agree that Street is an excellent candidate for making a good trade with.
As to whether management is considering it, well, of course they are. Billy is always considering trading everyone. Doesn't mean he'll actually do it, but there's no one who isn't under consideration.
Winner
Who cares if we've got Chavez at 3rd, Wright would be a cheap, impact bat that no one would have a problem with acquiring at the cost of Street.
Obviously Wright isn't getting traded for Street.
by WaddellCanseco on Aug 18, 2006 4:04 AM PDT up reply actions
street getting better each month
April 7.94
May 3.65
June 2.12
July 1.98
August 1.86

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