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If Billy were to trade Zito.....

who would be the likely suitors?

Star-divide

As you have all heard, Zito may be on the trading block with the trading deadline about a week away. The A's have arguably the hottest trading commodity with Barry Zito.
Billy, as we all know by now, will not trade Zito unless he gets something substantial with a young starting pitcher and some young offensive help.  It also has to be a deal that would improve the A's now, and in the future. It must also be a deal that would be better than the two first round picks that the A's would receive in the event that Zito leaves via free agency.  This limits what teams can or would trade with Billy. With the help of Baseball Prospectus and John Sickels website, I have put together an analysis of potential Zito suitors.
(Just a warning, my writing style is not as colorful as most other posters on this great website.)
Billy will not trade Zito to a team in his own division. He may trade to other divisions in the AL only if the other team would not become notably better than the A's in the event the two teams meet in the playoffs.  The Blue Jays may be the only potential suitor for Zito in the AL. But, the Blue Jays do not have blue chip AAA pitching prospects. Their pitching prospects include; Josh Banks, Chi-Hung Cheng, and Shawn Marcum. None of these prospects stand out any greater than Jason Windsor and Shane Komine. Trade unlikely.  
The National League, though, is a different story. the Giants, Padres, Diamondbacks, Dodgers, Reds, Astros, Cardinals, Braves, and the Mets are all potential suitors. Once again, any team that trades has to have a blue chip young pitching prospect that Billy could insert into the starting rotation, and other talent to give up in addition.  The Giants, Padres, Reds, and the Braves do not have such a pitching prospect.  That removes them from the list.  The Diamondbacks have great position players in their minor league system with Carlos Quentin, Stephen Drew, Justin Upton, and Conor Jackson, but no great upper level pitching prospects. The Reds have a great pitching prospect in Home Bailey, and a great OF prospect in Jay Bruce. Unfortunately, Bailey is tearing up AA and is not ready for the majors.
The Dodgers have a top pitching prospect with Chad Billingsley and a great AA pitching prospect in Scott Elbert.  The Cardinals have a top pitching prospect in Anthony Reyes, and a great OF prospect with Colby Rasmus.  Both are great players, with Reyes right now pitching in the majors. The Astros are back in the standings, but they may feel they have to make a bold move since some of their players are aging. The Astros have a decent prospect with RHP pitcher Jason Hirsh, but not much in other prospects. Hirsh is a big guy, but doesn't have great velocity.
And finally, the Mets have some prospects no one has heard of.....................that was a joke. The Met's top pitching prospect is Pelfrey, and a great AAA OF prospect with Lastings Milledge.

In summary, out of all of those teams, the Dodgers, Cardinals, and the Mets all have a young top pitching prospect that could step into a starting role with the A's.  Ned Colletti of the Dodgers is a good pitcher away from blowing away the Giants, and he may want to make a name for himself in his first year as Dodgers G.M.  The Cardinals have shown a willingness to trade top prospects in order to win now.(See Mulder trade). The Mets, though, are the most intriguing.  They have the right kind of prospects; the A's need a young, good, major league ready pitcher to fill Zito's shoes with Pelfrey, and some offensive help for now and the future with Milledge.  Also, the Mets have an aging pitching staff that is on borrowed time. Glavine, Hernandez, and Pedro aren't going to be able to perform at top levels much longer in this league.  G.M. Minaya may feel this is his best chance to win a world series with a lot of his offensive players having tremendous years.  He may take a serious risk in order to win it all, plus, he has the Braves breathing down his neck. Pitching coach may also be lobbying for Zito to come to the Mets.

If Billy were to decide to trade Zito, and that is a big IF, it would appear to me that Mets, Cardinals, and the Dodgers would have to best chance to get him. In my opinion.

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Any trade for Zito would have a complamantery trade to go with it, like the Eric Burns/ Jay Payton thing last year.  If Bean does trade Zito, he will probably also pick up another veteran starter too.  Whom would that be and where would we get him?  I'm thinking trade Zito to the Mets for Milledge and pitching prospects and then trade the cubs for Maddux maybe throwing a prospect from the Mets thier way.

by Threepwood XX on Jul 23, 2006 11:04 PM PDT reply actions  

yep...
if they traded Zito, then Billy would have to hedge his bets and pick up a veteran starter like Maddux to pick up any slack that a new young starter would bring.

by pedoman on Jul 23, 2006 11:11 PM PDT reply actions  

I enjoyed reading this one.
Good stuff, pedoman.
RIP mAC dRe and biLL KiNg

by jme on Jul 23, 2006 11:47 PM PDT reply actions  

what about the Tigers?
They could strengthen their pitching staff with the addition.  It might be nice to get Bonderman back or a Verlander/Zumaya package...but I don't know if they would even do that.  This heat's been getting to me.  My point is that I think the Tigers may be interested and might have the requisite 0-3 years of ML talent.  Maybe even see if they bite on a Zito package with Ellis for Polanco + a starter.  Anyone but Nate Robertson or Zach Miner.
Two-thirds of the earth is covered by water, the other third is covered by Kotsay.

by carp on Jul 24, 2006 12:53 AM PDT reply actions  

umm
Lastings Milledge + Heilman/or Bannister

Maddux? No thanks.

by 10 Notes On A Summers Day on Jul 24, 2006 3:40 AM PDT reply actions  

BB has to do something...
We have to get something better than draft picks for Zito.

So Zito must be moved, then.

I think BB has to move him, as well as one or two other guys to clear up the OF/1B/DH situation.

The more I look at this diary, though, the more I'm thinking that it will end up being a three team deal.

The A's needs (as I see them) are:

  1.  A talented young prospect
  2.  A cheap veteran starter
I really hope Beane pulls the trigger on something and doesn't just end up accepting the draft picks the A's will get when Zito flies the coup.
Proudly celebrating my 20th year as an A's fan.

by bzn5150 on Jul 24, 2006 10:07 AM PDT reply actions  

Da Cards
They aren't going to pull Reyes out of their starting rotation just to bring in Zito.
Why yes. I am a ray of warm and fuzzy sunshine.

by grover on Jul 24, 2006 12:57 PM PDT reply actions  

All I can add is that
it is a seller's market this year with so many teams still in contention. Starting pitching is what more teams need than anything, and Zito is arguably the cream of the crop.

What all that adds up to is that the A's should ask for the moon and settle for nothing less--which means a young replacement pitcher who can help in '07 and a hitter who can help now.

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Jul 24, 2006 2:09 PM PDT reply actions  

don't knock Josh Banks
guy struck out 100+ batters last year while onbly walking 14
"Sometimes Joe (morgan) doesn't like facts to get in the way of his opinions."- billy beane

by harendaman365 on Jul 26, 2006 2:12 AM PDT reply actions  

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