The effect of lineups

by OaktownTribesman on May 8, 2006 8:57 AM PDT

I think Macha believes lineup slots play a huge role in the outcome of the game or something, as evidenced by his obsession for L-R alternation, or his playing chutes and ladders with the lineup card whenever we face a tough lefty. But they don't, IN THEORY. Over the course of a season, IN THEORY it won't matter where your guys are batting, as long as your best hitters are getting the most plate appearances (i.e. top half vs. bottom half of the order). Similarly, IN THEORY it shouldn't matter if you keep on changing the lineup around or settle on a fixed lineup.

However, the players don't believe this. The players are "baseball guys", not statheads. And even if they did believe it, they still wouldn't be able to not let it affect them. For example, they feel batting 3rd comes with being the team's best all-around hitter with plus power, while batting 8th means you're a scrappy gamer at best. And if a manager is constantly changing the lineup, it sends mixed messages to the players, and that can lead to loss of confidence, frustration, suspicion, and other emotions that can throw a hitter's approach/mechanics at the plate.

The lineups' biggest effect is on the players' mental state. And despite what some want to believe, the mental aspect of the game is HUGE. This is why I think Macha hurts the team when he juggles Swisher between 2nd and 7th on the lineup card, when he keeps Crosby in the 3rd hole despite his less-than-stellar career to this point. Macha needs to come up with a reasonable lineup (no Kotsay batting 3rd, or Thomas hitting leadoff), something that can be seen as "common sense" by baseball guys (nothing revolutionary, keep it simple), just to MAKE THE PLAYERS COMFORTABLE.

Therefore, it probably wouldn't make a difference in Diamond Mind or some other baseball simulation if you ran that lineup as opposed to random lineups, but I think it would do wonders for the players' mental state. So in the end, lineups do have an effect on the teams' output, only what matters most is stability and consistency, not the constant micro-managing of individual slots.

Anyway, this is my opinion on the effects of the lineup. Any additional or contrary thoughts?

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Comments

The importance of cohesion goes a step further:

It is important to fell comfortable, not only in what slot you hit, but, with who hits around you.

There is a rhythm to a line-up.

Now, IF, that rhythm is broken...Which it wasn't on Thursday, yet, was on Friday (Swisher 7th???), it can be damaging.

I believe that line-up shake-ups are for when the team is doing poorly or when someone (Crosby) isn't performing in a certain slot for a prolonged stretch.

While taint is everywhere and baseball is certainly no different, it's important that it be treated with open attention-Devo

by saint @ Athletics Nation on May 8, 2006 9:08 AM PDT reply actions

I agree that batting Swish 7th was ridiculous

Can someone tell me why he did it? I really didn't understand that move. Why have your best hitter surrounded by your worst hitters? It seems like a recipe for rally-killing plays.

Made no sense to me at all.

"Put a Milo on him." -Billy Beane

by kaweahkaweah on May 8, 2006 9:17 AM PDT up reply actions

B-I-N-G-O!!!!

That was JUST AWFUL!!!

Let's see...The offense blew up on Thursday...So, let's move everyone around and see what happens!?!?!

While taint is everywhere and baseball is certainly no different, it's important that it be treated with open attention-Devo

by saint @ Athletics Nation on May 8, 2006 9:19 AM PDT up reply actions

And on Friday..

the offense just blew. Hit after wasted hit-after wasted hit...

"Put a Milo on him." -Billy Beane

by kaweahkaweah on May 8, 2006 9:21 AM PDT up reply actions

Doesn't this go hand in hand...

With what Macha did two years ago w/ the Bullpen??? Never giving anyone a role in the bullpen until July/August???

Consistently saying, "The Players write the Lineup", or, "The Bullpen defines their roles". Both are copouts.

How does batting Swish 7th on Friday Night coincide w/ "The Players write the Lineup"???
-------------------------------------------------

Dear Mr. Macha:

Please submit this lineup for the next 6 days, and see what happens.

Ellis
Kotsay
Swisher
Chavez
Thomas
Crosby
Johnson
Payton
Kendall

Also, don't be afraid to do the following things:

Pinch run Rrank Thomas w/ A. Perez before the 8th Inning.
PH for Jason Kendall late in games w/ a runner on 1st Base.
Put runners in motion with low strikeout guys like Kotsay/Kendall/etc...

Thank you,

June 19th - June 21st, 2006 ** Oakland Athletics @ Colorado Rockies ** Lets Go Oak-Land!

by Colorado Fan on May 8, 2006 9:20 AM PDT reply actions

I'd like to sign that letter.

by popcornjames on May 8, 2006 1:09 PM PDT up reply actions

in general I agree

ballplayers need to get into a rhythm in all facets of their game. While some players are not particularly affected by where they are slotted, I think those are mostly veterans with a very well established pattern of preparation. And of course, you want the best hitting players to get the most at-bats, which is why the best hitters should be in the top half of the order, generally speaking.

understanding that some key players are still underperforming offensively, and one important position player (Bradley) is hurt -- based on what we've seen so far a reasonable lineup might look like this: Ellis - Bradley - Swisher - Chavez - Thomas - Kotsay - Crosby - Payton or Johnson - Kendall.

Just a thought (the suggested lineup). I'm more concerned to see Kendall not bat first, Crosby not bat third, and Kotsay also not bat third (probably not in the first third).

by OaklandSi on May 8, 2006 9:24 AM PDT reply actions

I can imagine that changing the players' lineup slots is akin to changing peoples' cubicles at work or changing their shifts at the coffee shop. How would you feel if you had no idea where or when you'd be working each day you showed up at your job? In theory you should be able to work as efficiently as always regardless of which cubicle you're occupying or what time you're working the cashier, but I can guarantee your performance would be spotty at best. Unless you're one of those people who can get used constant change or aren't effected by it, which do exist but aren't exactly common.

It might seem ridiculous to us to make such a comparison, but to big leaguers, baseball is their life and each lineup slot, each position on the diamond, each role in the bullpen, is a different beast in their minds. Notice how established players have a hard time letting go of their role or lineup slot, even if it's in the best interests of the team.

Of course, Macha probably has no idea of what a lineup slot means to a starter, seeing as how he was never a big league regular as a player. He was probably just happy to be in the lineup whenever he got the chance, and didn't care where he was.

by OaktownTribesman on May 8, 2006 9:27 AM PDT reply actions

I disagree

I also thought of the cubicle analogy -- but I think that would only apply if the players were changing defensive positions regularly. (Chone Figgins is like a super-temp.)

Some of Macha's batting-order decisions befuddle me (the obvious example being Swisher in the 7-slot the other day), but overall I don't think the lineup strongly affects either outcomes or players' mentalities.

For all the macho posturing about various issues around here, we do seem to think our boys are pwecious widdle fwowers when it comes to the fragility of their mindsets regarding their places in the batting order.

Shut, shut, shut your cold, mean mouth! - Poppy @('.')@

by monkeyball on May 8, 2006 10:27 AM PDT up reply actions

Well

I'm not one for macho posturing.

And if they're not precious little flowers, but rather resilient machines of consistency, why do they get into such terrible slumps or fail to get timely hits in a consistent manner?

by OaktownTribesman on May 8, 2006 11:18 AM PDT up reply actions

how about Nacho Posturing?

A good question, that.

My response would be that most of them just aren't all that good.

Shut, shut, shut your cold, mean mouth! - Poppy @('.')@

by monkeyball on May 8, 2006 12:07 PM PDT up reply actions

Another Macha contradiction

We all saw how long Macha left Chavez batting cleanup last season while he was in his slump, likely with the reasoning stability would help bring him out of his funk. Yet if Macha thinks stability increases performance, then why is he constantly juggling the lineup? If Macha is going to leave Crosby in the 3 hole all year, why doesnt he leave Ellis at leadoff and let him work things out at his own pace there too? Let the players write a constantly shifting lineup based on performance, or leave them all in place for stability, not both at once. Macha just appears mental and playing favorites with his lame lineups.

by redruin on May 8, 2006 10:27 AM PDT reply actions

You guys should all read

a chapter in BP's Baseball Between The Numbers. The chapter is titled "Was Billy Martin Crazy?" and it's all about attacking the lineup questions you guys bring up, like how much does order affect team scoring, where is the best place to hit your sluggers, and should a team's best hitters bat together or spread out.

I'm sure some of you may have already read it, but if not, I wouldn't mind going through a brief summmary of it. The results are pretty interesting and more or less support Macha's unpredictability.

by fadedash on May 8, 2006 10:33 AM PDT up reply actions

yeah, so...

how about that summary? (if only because I'm somewhat confused by your last sentence, which could be taken two ways...the results support Macha's unpredictability because players respond better to an unpredictable lineup (less likely), or rather because a randomly shuffled lineup yields no significant effect. This latter is more likely, if only because all statistical analysis of lineups that I'm aware of has pointed to this conclusion as of yet, but then I wouldn't say it "supports Macha's unpredictability"...it wouldn't really support any particular lineup approach, would it? I guess what it does support is managerial indifference, but I doubt that's what is the motive behind Macha's tinkering...

See, I'm a murderer, I kill what I eat. I'm a hunter-gatherer, I kill what I eat. I'm a steelworker, I kill what I eat. I'm a bricklayer, I kill what I eat.

by Cutthemullet on May 8, 2006 12:48 PM PDT up reply actions

and I forgot...

this:
)

See, I'm a murderer, I kill what I eat. I'm a hunter-gatherer, I kill what I eat. I'm a steelworker, I kill what I eat. I'm a bricklayer, I kill what I eat.

by Cutthemullet on May 8, 2006 12:49 PM PDT up reply actions

Maybe its time...

adjust the lineup based on our best hitters getting the most at-bats. I remember an old post about this, referencing some article, that basically suggested Chavez should hit first, followed by the second best hitter, then the third best hitter, and so on down the order; with the idea of having our best hitters getting the most at bats. While i dont like the idea of having Chavez lead off, maybe something along those lines would work. How about this (based solely on OBP):
Swisher
Chavez
Bradley
Kendall
Kotsay
Ellis
Thomas
Johnson
Crosby

Based on AVG:
Swisher
Chavez
Kotsay
Bradley
Kendall
Ellis
Crosby
Thomas
Johnson

Of course this is assuming everyone is healthy, but getting our two best hitters some more ABs and the chance to be on base more might do some good.

President of the Brent Gates Fan Club

by SoCal As Fan on May 8, 2006 11:17 AM PDT reply actions

Again

The problem with having Chavvy lead off is it would also throw the players into a "WTF?" mode. Baseball players don't pour over statistical studies and firmly believe and accept that the best hitter batting leadoff is going to lead to more runs scored. No, a baseball player is going to go on old baseball myths. Right or wrong, players will only trust and respect their manager and stop second-guessing when a slugger like Chavvy is in the 3 or 4-hole, when the fast, on-base guy is batting leadoff, when the scrappy all-hit-no-glove guys are batting in the bottom of the order.

Macha's messages are mixed, at best. First he says the players writes the lineup, and then he does the exact opposite of that like bat Crosby 3rd and Swisher 7th. I guess it's not so much that Swisher is being thrown off when he sees he's batting 7th, but rather the rest of the lineup is being thrown off when they see Swisher batting 7th. With confusion comes frustration, which can have devastating effects on something as complex as hitting. Frustration can make you swing at bad pitches, it can make you swing too hard, or it can make you a bit more anxious and therefore mess with your timing. On the other hand, fielding is not as affected because that relies on talent and instincts more than approach and mechanics.

by OaktownTribesman on May 8, 2006 11:32 AM PDT up reply actions

So what was throwing everyone off

in the first couple weeks of the season? Everyone knew their role (Ellis leadoff, Thomas after Chavy, Crosby 3rd) coming out of spring training and everyone was comfortable knowing where they were going to be.

And what happened?

It's one thing to say that jumbling things around would throw players in a "wtf mode", but you can't really support that assumption. If you're going to assume that they're getting thrown off by the rotations in the lineups, someone could also just as easily assume that things would be worse if there weren't any of these adjustments.

by fadedash on May 8, 2006 11:50 AM PDT up reply actions

I would not totally object to either line-up!

I don't like Bobby batting last (but my opinion is a bit bias) or Kendall not batting last! But I do like Kendall batting after Bradley who seems to enjoy stealing and is rather fast, so the chances of a DP could be greatly reduced with that combination.

"Now, I'm not the guy who's in trouble, it's the guy on the mound who's in trouble.'' Swisher Pics

by BobbyCrosbysGirl on May 8, 2006 11:49 AM PDT up reply actions

The great thing about Kendall batting first

which he has been doing lately, is that he should ground into fewer double plays. I have to think that that fact--and that his OBP is decent enough (.360)--has influenced the latest lineup configuration.

"Put a Milo on him." -Billy Beane

by kaweahkaweah on May 8, 2006 12:03 PM PDT up reply actions