Why Frank Thomas should hit leadoff!
Why Frank Thomas should hit leadoff!
I realize this will sound sacrilege, but there's more than enough evidence to prove the point. Look at Frank's stats when there are no out and no men on base: .345/.424/.862/1.286. That is also when he hit all 5 of his home runs this year. [When he didn't have 0 on and 0 out he was .111/.211/.142/.354] Whatever the reason may be, if he's most likely to be productive as a leadoff hitter, we should give him that opportunity as often as possible.
Now many will say we can't do it because Frank will clog up the bases. First of all, a 424 OBP is worth the tradeoff of a slower runner. In the worst case, during close games we can replace him with a faster runner who can then takeover the leadoff spot. More importantly though is that Frank will be followed in the lineup by Chavy and Swish, who have 20 homers (and 14 doubles) between them. Having more men on base, no matter how slow they are, will only help in those situations. Also bear in mind that Frank does have runs. He's been on the bases before and found his way home.
Frank wants to prove that the White Sox made a mistake in replacing him with Thome, who is on pace to have the best year of his career. He certainly has the drive, and already has been useful in helping Swish reach his prime. I say it's time to put him in the place where he'll do us the most good. I realize the Joe Morgans of the world will laugh at us - a lumbering giant as a leadoff hitter? Well guess what? If that's where he has an OBP over 400 and hits homeruns over 15% of the time, I say we give it to him.
The one problem I see is that Chavy needs a mighty bat behind him to reach his prime. A simple solution is to have Swish hit behind Chavy. Here is Macha suitable (alternating lefties and righties) lineup:
Thomas
Chavez
Swisher
Bradley
Crosby
Kotsay
Ellis
Johnson
Kendall
This diary wouldn't be complete with giving much thanks to compy75 for giving me this idea with his excellent diary on May 1st
Update:
Today's game has further proven the point. Look at Frank's new splits between 0 on, 0 out and otherwise:
0 on 0 out 30 AB .367 / .467/ .967 / 1.433 6 HR
Otherwise 66 AB .106 / .213/ .136 / .350 0 HR
His AVG is 3.46 times better, OBP is 2.19 times better, SLG is 7.11 times better, OPS is 4.09 times better, and homeruns are infinitely better.
I think there must be a mental block going on over here, and Frank should hit leadoff until he gets his groove back.
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My poor brain
- Barry Bonds
- Todd Helton
- Frank Thomas
- Albert Pujols
- Lance Berkman
- Jason Giambi
- Brian Giles
- Bobby Abreu
- Manny Ramirez
2 lefties followed by 2 righties?
Not to mention about 8 first basemen.
Brian Giles sucks
Did somebody say...
"Cause only one language kicks ass, and that's the one we're teaching!"
Even if I accept the
Why?
I'm not sure that I understand
- I don't agree with you that Big Frank's 1000 OPS with none on and none out is anything other than a sample size fluke.
- Even if I did agree with you on that issue, batting Thomas leadoff would only guarantee him one plate appearance per game in which he were guaranteed to bat with none on and none out, and that would be in the relatively unimportant first inning.
My bad
In 2004...
He struck out two and ended his pitching career with a 0.00 ERA, a 0.00 WHIP, and a K:BB ratio of 2:0.
By your logic, we should start him tomorrow in place of Halsey.
If he kept it up for 29 batters faced
And if Thomas keeps it up for a season..
The stats are robust enough to give it a shot.
Let's say it that wouldn't be an option.
You're talking in a language that makes no sense.
If I remotely cared what other people
I'm sure if Frank hit a bases-loaded homer run today you would have been the first to attack me for it. Instead today further proved my point. soon it will be so obvious even Macha will see it. When he moves Thomas from the 4/5 hole, he better move him to the 1 hole and not to the back of the lineup.
As for your first point
He had 29 AB with 0 on, 0 out and hit .345/.424/.862/1.286
He had 63 AB other than that and hit .111/.211/.142/.354
That is the most frightening split I have ever seen. Are 63 ABs that much more robust than the 29? Is 92 ABs that much more robust? All we have are small sample sizes, but the differences are too stark to be ignored.
Oops.
This is the most misused logic in all of armchair analysis.
The samples are small
The variation involved
Then stick to his career numbers
Career stats don't apply to today.
Ditto, tiny sample sizes don't supercede the fact that Thomas would be the slowest lead-off man in history, and would only be guaranteed one actual lead-off at bat per game.
Slowness doesn't matter if he's hitting Homers
No, it doesn't always hurt you.
Imagine your idea is put into practice. So Frank gets walked on the first AB of the game, Kotsay hits into a fielders choice behind him (likely, since Thomas isn't great going to 2nd), so the advantage is gone.
But after that, what you have is Thomas 'protecting' your worst hitter in the line-up every time he takes an AB. You've just negated the few good things he can do, because he protects nobody.
I wouldn't have Kotsay hitting behind him!
But what matters is
Besides, worse comes to worse, our 9th slot hitter is also a leadoff hitter, so it would be like Frank is hitting 2nd the next time around the order, which will strike people as less sacrilege.
Salb, I'm afraid I have to side
If Kendall does his thing and ends the inning
i think
by Nick86 on May 6, 2006 11:22 PM PDT reply actions
As Nico pointed out
It's in our history..
Jeremy's OBP was never close to Frank's
as long as there's already a lineup thread...
Kendall
Kotsay
Swisher
Chavez
Crosby
Thomas
Johnson
Payton
Ellis
When healthy (or back in the lineup, rather) I think Bradley should go 2nd, with Kotsay moving down to hit behind Crosby. Not that I think the lineup is necessarily the entire problem, but some of these moves just don't make sense. The biggest issue I notice is that, similar to last year, with all these injuries, no one can get comfortable in their role on the squad.
But Swisher started hitting well when he was #8!
</snark>
But he keep it up
Look, I realize my idea is controversial, and there is a lot to criticize about it. However, the first step is to read it and context and see what it's really saying. You're attacking stuff I didn't say and ignoring stuff that I did say. Please reread the thread and come up with an intrisic flaw.
- I'm sure you would agree that if the stats are legit, it pays to have Thomas hit leadoff. Between his homers, and the homers that Chavy and Swisher in the 2 and 3 hole would knock in, the extra OBP and SLG of his more than pays for slowness. Hell, we even put Jeremy Giambi in the leadoff spot becuase of his OBP, and he was never in the same league and Thomas.
- The sample size for this year is small, but lokk at the 1/3 of the time Frank had 0 on 0 outs, and the 2/3 of the time he didn't. He literally triples his AVG, doubles his OBP, and sextuples his SLG. He is by far the best hitter and the worst hitter on the team, depending on where he hits. If there's even a chance this isn't a coincidence, we should find out ASAP. Give him a few games hitting leadoff. It makes a lot more sense than putting Crosby in the 3 hole.
Here's my issue
Put another way, the leadoff hitter comes to bat with 0 out about 50% of the time, and with no men on about 63% of the time. Assuming these two events are not related (they are, but this is a good first appoximation), the noneonnoneout situation comes up approximately 32% of PAs for the leadoff batter. As of right now, Big Frank has seen the noneonnoneout situation in - GASP - 31% of his PAs this season. If we accept that his split keeps up, then I don't see a reason to not accept that his unusually high number of noneonnoneout PAs keep up. And the net effect would be negligible.
The average number 4/5 hitter sees a noneonnoneout situation in about 18% of PAs. Let's assume that's closer to what Big Frank would see through the whole season. So we're talking about changing his OPS from 354 to 1286 in (32-18=)15% of his PAs. Assuming a 500 PA season from him, that's the difference between a 521 OPS and a 643 OPS. Both are pretty fucking brutal, and it wouldn't matter one way or another whether he batted leadoff or not, he'd still be a drag on the offense. (Again, this calculation assumes the split is this real and this drastic, neither of which I believe to be true.)
Finally, my real point is that when the sample sizes are this small, it would do us good to ask ourselves if there is a good reason - that we can back up by observation (not necessarily statistics) - for Big Frank to have this kind of split. And I haven't seen anybody offer up an explanation yet.
I can think of a very simple explantion
I think Thomas is afraid to get on base because of his bum foot. Putting him in a situation where he must get on base will help break that mental fear. Once it's out of his system, we can move him anywhere. 10 games at leadoff will turn him into his old self again.
If you look at Frank's great OBP when he bats leadoff, you want Chavy and Swish behind him. When they knock in homers, you want people on base. With doubles and homers, speed of the runner on first doesn't matter as much - or at all. I want Thomas to be on base when those two come up to bat, so he can get home without his slowness being a problem. And so having Thomas hit leadoff in 4 hole isn't nearly as good for us.
Also, there is clearly a correlation between the number of outs and the number of men on base. It is clear that having Thomas bat first will increase his opportunites for this type of situations, by giving him a gaurantee of 1 per game, plus all the extras he may get. Right now he's only getting the extras. Nico would say that having double play Kendall ending the inning beofre him will give Frank loads of leadoff shots. I say that with a regular leadoff type hitter beofre him in the nine 9, worse comes to worse you have the equivalent of Thomas hitting #2 in the order the second time around.
Look at other leadoff hitters
I bet you
A persecution complex?
a) they don't appreciate the thought that went into your diary
b) they are a bunch of anti-numbers old-school goons.
If it's numbers you want, I quantified the affect that your proposed switch would have. Why don't you respond to that?
I loved your critique
I'm sure you realize
Bambi, your problem isn't
Crosby, on the other hand, has equally dramatic disparity in this year's small sample size, but also on a career basis. Crosby also has the speed to be helpful once he arrives at first base.
Crosby leadoff is worth discussing, but not F. Thomas.
If you look at Frank's career numbers
More importantly, I think Thomas is afraid to run the bases and to hurt his foot. That fear is killing us. When he hits leadoff, he knows he has to get on base, and hope that over the course of three outs someone will knock him home. When he relaxes and tries to just get on base, he hits better (and probably gets better pitches). Let him hit leadoff for ten games until he gets his groove back. If you look at his career numbers, that wouldn't be such a bad thing anyway.
I Rest My Damn Case!
Even if we accept
It does imply, however, that he should always hit after Kendall, regardless of where they are in the lineup.
It puts him there at least once per game.
If you take away Frank's 0 on/0 out stats, he's having the worst year anyone has ever seen.
Forget .345/.424/.862/1.286
Meanwhile
i dont usually comment but...
Not to mention, he has a much bigger upside in the middle of the order than at the beginning. Why hit him behind somebody like kendall? That merely insures that "the big hurt" will be reduced to something like a stubbed toe. He wouldn't get rbi situations... which, historically, he has come through in.
I think he struggles right now because he is pressing. He hears the hype surrounding him, and expects to come through in big situations. Consequently, when he bats leadoff, there is no pressure, he just swings the bat. Putting him at leadoff just shows him that we don't have confidence in him, leading me to believe he would press even harder, and struggle even more.
by karate explosion on May 7, 2006 6:48 PM PDT reply actions
I did listen.
The one leadoff hitter I checked, Ichiro, has a leadoff hitter who gets 43% of his ABs with 0 on 0 off. Please check the rest. It goes without saying that letting Thomas hit leadoff will give him more ABs in that position. It only guarantees him one, but will clearly increase his number. It also lets our homeruns hitters follow him the order, so that his slowness won't hurt us. (His replacement runner would also be more likely to be of the leadoff type hitter than a #4 hitter.)
I absolutely agree with the first half of your last paragraph. We simply disagree on the last half. I think he struggles right now because he is pressing. He hears the hype surrounding him, and expects to come through in big situations. Consequently, when he bats leadoff, there is no pressure, he just swings the bat. You can't simply tell him not to press. He was obviously told that many times. By batting him leadoff, we are telling him "No pressure. Just get on base, and Chavy/Swisher will knock you home. You have the highest career OBP on this team, and OBP is what you need to hit leadoff. Leadoff is also where you're hitting best now, and your stats are unbelievable. Your OBP is over 450 and your SLG is nearly 1000! Just get comfortable getting on base, and let the team bring you home. Don't worry about running on the foot. Just be yourself and all will follow from there"
I bet you that after 10 games he will find his groove and then we can move him wherever we want. I'm sure you agree that moving him to bat first is much better than moving him down to the 7/8/9 hole as others here are saying, or even worse, bring someone else up. What would that do to his confidence? Moving him to where he hits best will increase his confidence. I have yet to see a better idea on how to bring back the old Frank Thomas. I'd love to hear any ideas you may have.
(BTW, How great would the difference in his stats have to be for you to consider this idea? What is the trend continues for another 30 games? Would you then agree?)
Correction
sorry for the typos.
I think there are many good points here and
- Frank is so big he is able to just throw the bat at the ball and knock them for HRs.
- In 2006 the ball he connects with is grooved down the middle and most power capable A's have the same HR ability when it is a mistake pitch.
- HR hitters use their legs, Swisher, Chavez, Crosby, Giambi, Tejada, Frank used to.
- Frank can't or won't use his legs. His "fear" is what can happen if he overuses his legs.
- Frank does not hit more HRs because the bases are empty. He hits more because opposing pitchers take more chances and lose focus when the bases are void.
- With RISP pitchers will take fewer chances prefering to throw junk and take the walk or strike out rather than let one swing end their game. (Frank's high OBP and weak swings)
- The radio criticized Frank's poor use of the strike zone and they were right about that. He swings at bad pitches a lot so pitchers throw bad pitches a lot.
- If you look at any other HR hitter they stand up straight, bat cocked, legs bent at the knees, ready to drive the ball.
- Frank stoops over more than most and sets himself up for swinging at off the plate junk.
2. Would opposing pitchers be most apt to groove a pitch to the first batter? I say "yes", I think most pitchers are working on location into the 2nd & 3rd innings.
3.Would Frank get in the way of batters behind him. I say yes and on top of that I'd guess that he might possibly hurt himself trying to stay ahead of them.
Here is the question you jumped over;
What would happen to HR/power production if Frank were guaranteed his ups at #3?.
$ Swisher - Too hot not too!
L Chavez - Earlier appearance might be the rejuvenator
R Frank "Nitty" the enforcer
L Kotsay - smart situational batter to move "Nitty" along.
R Crosby - Damn good when he enforces the strike zone
L DJ/R JP - Where did these guys go?
R Ellis - Needs a hot streak
$ Melhuse - nice hot streaks! doubles a good idea in front of;
R Kendall
by A s Eh on May 7, 2006 8:28 PM PDT reply actions
I agree with you
I took off with Frank in the 3-hole bit but
I'd stack power at the front every game.
A lot of ANers act like Frank is a 600 at bats player.
I would have Frank PH in the late innings in at least 33% of the games.
We need him to be on it in the 8th or 9th innings game on the line situations or the Frank experiment does not work.
We are still a bat away from the prizes! A's probably should get agressive for J's Hillenbrand or better; Carlos Lee from Brewers. Brewers will listen because he is a FA and $8.5.
Carlos Lee (LF) has 604 runs + rbis over the last 3 years + 94 HRs + 133 doubles and hits righties best. http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/splits?statsId=6161&type=batting3
Swisher would play 100 games at 1B and the rest at RF when MB is in CF. Carlos becomes the everyday LFer. Carlos makes $8.5 and is a FA for '07. Brewers need pitching, even Loaiza but might like JP and one of our AAA starters better. (cheaper)
by A s Eh on May 7, 2006 10:46 PM PDT up reply actions
bambi
by Nick86 on May 7, 2006 9:12 PM PDT reply actions
2 points
Second, there is a very good reason why Frank is doing so much better hitting leadoff. When he does he stops pressing, and simply relaxes and tried to get on base. He also gets to see better pitches. The best way to get him back on track is to give him more opportunities in the situation in which he's doing best. There's a clear mental block going on over here, and so I'm proposing the best way to help Frank get over it.
Please read all the comments in this thread and see if you agree.
1 point
But as to your first point, you are basically right when you say that ...And the more overwhelming it [the difference] is, the smaller the sample size you need to prove the point. I'm just not sure if you realize what effect the sample size has on determining the significance of a given result set.
Say, you toss a coin 100 times and it turns out heads 87 times, or 7 times more often than it was tails. Nick86 flips a coin 1000 times and he ends up with 615 heads, not even twice the number the tails he flipped. (...the tails he flipped? hmm, this sentence sounds a bit strange...)
Sure, your amazing 7:1 ratio looks much more convincing, yet statistical possibility of it happening is roughly the same as it is with the other example. But again, it's just coins, and coins don't choke...
98 AB, 18 H, .188 average, 6 HR...
Carlos Lee!
Carlos Lee!
Carlos Lee!
Carlos Lee!
Carlos Lee!
Carlos Lee!
Carlos Lee!
Carlos Lee!
Carlos Lee!
Carlos Lee!
Carlos Lee!
Carlos Lee!
by A s Eh on May 7, 2006 10:49 PM PDT up reply actions
I found
In his career at Busch Stadium, Albert Pujols's ops is 1.082. In his career at Arlington Park (one of the best hitters' parts in the league), his OPS is .143. Keep in mind, I'm using a sample size of 882 At Bats (868 in Busch Stadium, 14 in Arlington).
Conclusions: Let's say your the GM of the Texas Rangers, and Walt Jocketty calls you up offering Albert Pujols for Kevin Mench. No way in hell you make that deal. Clearly, Albert Pujols has some mental block whenever he plays in Arlington.
But wait, you say. Thta logic is ridiculous! It doesn't make any sense! Obviously if you look at Pujols's numbers in every park you're going to be able to find a park he's hit poorly in in a really small sample size!
Well, yes. yes you can. If Frank Thomas was mentally incapable of producing with runners on base, he probably wouldn't have 1500 career RBIs.
by Nick86 on May 8, 2006 9:25 AM PDT reply actions

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